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    • Wednesday, June 19, 2013

    Neyer: Computing Manny Machado’s shot at the record

    (www.baseballnation.com)
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    posted 4 hours ago by Repoz to bill james, history, orioles  |  21 comment(s)

    The Machado (2013) - The Criterion Collection.

    Yesterday, Bill James wrote (subscriber-only) about Manny Machado’s chances of breaking the all-time, single-season double record. Here’s the meat, or rather the top and bottom buns; I snipped out most of the mathematical meat:

      Manny Machado has hit 31 doubles through the Orioles’ first 71 games. At that pace he would hit 73 doubles this season, which would break the major league record for doubles in a season, which is 67 (Earl Webb, ...

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    51. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers posted on February 25, 2013 at 05:10 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Wah. I'm sure ESPN the Magazine is looking to spite the city of Baltimore for no good reason, and isn't using any kind of logic or rationale behind their argument.


    Indeed. The other headlines on the cover: "Stephen Curry is the NBA's greatest shooter ever" and "Andrew Luck has better legs than RG3"
    52. AROM posted on February 25, 2013 at 05:20 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So if I give you a gun with 15 chambers and one has a bullet, you're comfortable putting it to your head?


    You're just being silly. Using the same analogy, betting on the Orioles to make the playoffs over the last 15 years would be the equivalent of putting a gun with 15 chambers and 14 bullets to your head.
    53. Eric J can SABER all he wants to posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:03 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The advanced stats folks may not hate the Orioles, but they hate stories like the Orioles and results like the Orioles put up in 2012. They entirely resent the fact that the results of actual baseball games trump sabermetrics' pythagorean relationship, and resent the excitement people feel over the results of actual baseball games.

    As someone who considers himself an advanced stat folk (and has posted a statistical article here), and who spent last season posting lengthy daily writeups of the preceding day's most exciting baseball game in the Dugout thread (many of which prominently featured the Orioles)... I think you may be painting with a rather broad brush here.

    Also, I know better than to touch the trigger of a gun that I'm aiming at my own head.
    54. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship  posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:03 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    You're just being silly. Using the same analogy, betting on the Orioles to make the playoffs over the last 15 years would be the equivalent of putting a gun with 15 chambers and 14 bullets to your head.

    Well, what the hell do you think Orioles' fans have felt like for 14 out of the last 15 years?
    55. gef the talking mongoose posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:09 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    ... or use mini-bullets


    That would look just too cute for words.
    56. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:29 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Also, I know better than to touch the trigger of a gun that I'm aiming at my own head.

    And I know better than to aim a damn gun at my own head in the first place.
    57. Curse of the Andino posted on February 25, 2013 at 07:26 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'd feel a lot better about the O's if they had Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn in LF instead of Nate McLouth, and if they had Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson or even Shaun Marcum in their rotation instead of Jair Jurrjens.


    McLouth is the 4th OF, if Reimold's healthy (big if. Huge if.) Rotation is Arietta, Chen, Hammel, probably Gonzales, and then 10 guys competing to hold the fifth slot until Dylan Bundy's midseason call-up. Duquette loves himself some pitching depth, but didn't want to give BMac $10 million (not that I wouldn't enjoy in-game interviews with Mrs. McCarthy on a regular basis).

    Baltimore's biggest question (aside from the health of Reimold) is at 2b, where Roberts? Really? But even there, Schoop might be ready for a midseason call-up. I agree the O's are probably an 85-win-ish team, and could do better if Machado really improves at 3rd, or worse if Reimold and Markakis go down again.

    Figure the bullpen will regress, but the starters will be better than last year, so pitching overall should stay about the same. Also, the O's are a good-to-excellent defensive team, and I don't think you can say that about the Yankees or Red Sox quite as easily.
    58. Howie Menckel posted on February 25, 2013 at 09:14 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    I love the 2013 AL East.
    I don't like the Red Sox or the Orioles and maybe not the Yankees, either, but the possibility of the Blue Jays winning and a NYY/BOS team OR the 2012 BAL playoff team finishing last is intriguing.

    When is the last time this might have been the most interesting division top to bottom?

    59. The Yankee Clapper posted on February 25, 2013 at 09:19 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Mo is Mo, but Mo's also 43 and also coming off major surgery. Soriano put up a 185 ERA+ last year, and if Mo matches that this time around it'll be the most impressive year he'll ever have had.

    In Rivera We Trust. No worries.
    60. McCoy posted on February 25, 2013 at 09:32 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So if I give you a gun with 15 chambers and one has a bullet, you're comfortable putting it to your head?

    Single greatest poorly thought out example in the history of BTF. This phrase should have its own page on our wiki.
    61. The Yankee Clapper posted on February 25, 2013 at 09:34 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Again, just look at the ages of those two staffs . . .

    This was covered the other day:
    The Yankees have been old always. And they have won always. They will win long after you are old and I am gone.

    What kind of person doubts Bill James and Ernest Hemingway?

    To get back to the Orioles, I won't be surprised to see them finish ahead of the Red Sox.
    62. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Fielder posted on February 25, 2013 at 10:08 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I think random draw would work as well as a projection system in the AL East this year. Hell, the only bets among all 30 teams that I'd make this season are the Astros finishing last in the AL West and the Phillies finishing 3rd in the NL East.
    63. gef the talking mongoose posted on February 25, 2013 at 11:08 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    and Ernest Hemingway?


    Speaking of people who put guns in the vicinity of their heads & didn't have much more to say after that.
    64. Curse of the Andino posted on February 25, 2013 at 11:28 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Speaking of people who put guns in the vicinity of their heads & didn't have much more to say after that.


    Too soon.
    65. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee posted on February 26, 2013 at 12:24 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Would Kyle Lohse help out the Orioles? I guess they don't want to sign because of the draft pick but I think it'd be a decent pickup for them.

    The Orioles run-differential was a lot better as the season progressed, FWIW.
    66. DJS is Unbroken, By and By posted on February 26, 2013 at 12:36 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I don't know *everyone* that works for the magazine, but I don't know of any committed O's haters there.
    67. donlock posted on February 26, 2013 at 02:21 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    ESPN says the Orioles will finish last and in response, this turns into a Yankees thread. Argh!!!!
    68. RollingWave posted on February 26, 2013 at 04:00 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Someone's gotta finish last this year, the AL East is really becoming insane, it's a division with no bad teams , I can easily see any of the 5 team finish in any order (though obviously some more likely than others.) .

    Of course the Yankees' probably going to be their worst since 08 or even 00, and the Red Sox isn't exactly looking that much better, so the other O's Jays better make good of this window of opportunity (though with the contract situation of those two, that window may be pretty wide.)

    69. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish posted on February 26, 2013 at 05:52 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I've been to Hemingway's house in Key West and spoken to the six-toed cats who live there. They inform me that Hemingway was a drunk and they actually wrote all those books. Meow.
    70. JE (Jason Epstein)  posted on February 26, 2013 at 08:48 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So if I give you a gun with 15 chambers and one has a bullet, you're comfortable putting it to your head?

    Has anyone noticed that SBB has been absent from the thread since he posted this? You don't think...?
    71. SG posted on February 26, 2013 at 09:34 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    ESPN says the Orioles will finish last and in response, this turns into a Yankees thread. Argh!!!!


    # of times the word Orioles appears in this thread: 59
    # of times the word Yankees appears in this thread: 19
    72. SoSH U at work posted on February 26, 2013 at 10:57 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Dan, is the front-page line on the magazine even accurate? Are the Orioles predicted to finish last, or are they just the most likely team to finish last among the five in the AL East? If they're not better than a 50 percent chance to finish last, then "will finish last" is not correct (not that statheads would be to blame).

    73. TerpNats posted on February 26, 2013 at 11:55 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    To be blunt, the Yankees' offseason strategy this year has been pretty much like that of a small market team whose main investment has been in a few truckloads of rabbits' feet and rosary beads. That's harsh, but where are the facts that contradict it?
    It's short-term pain for long-term gain. If the Yankees can avoid the financial penalty now, that can pay off later when the revised CBA changes the financial rules of the game. I think even if George Steinbrenner were still with us, he would see the value of what Cashman is doing. I believe just about any GM in the game -- Rizzo, Daniels, Wren, Coletti, Hoyer -- would do likewise were they in that situation.
    74. jdennis posted on February 26, 2013 at 01:14 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    run differential: luck or coaching?
    75. SoSH U at work posted on February 26, 2013 at 01:23 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    run differential: luck or coaching?


    Mostly luck, with perhaps a little bit of talent distribution factored in (such as a front-loaded bullpen, one that's equally good at preserving narrow leads and turning small deficits into large ones).

    76. Nasty Nate posted on February 26, 2013 at 01:29 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Speaking of people who put guns in the vicinity of their heads & didn't have much more to say after that.


    He was just betting on his statistical age projection like they do in Vegas and Wall Street.
    77. GotowarMissAgnes posted on February 26, 2013 at 01:51 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    BPro has them last in the ALEast, 13th overall in the AL, 26th in MLB.
    RLYW has them last in the ALEast, 12th in the AL, 23rd in MLB

    Anyone see Brian Roberts smack 2 doubles yesterday?
    78. The Id of SugarBear Blanks  posted on February 26, 2013 at 02:08 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Single greatest poorly thought out example in the history of BTF.

    The weakness of a model with a 7% risk of ruin wasn't really coming across, so it seemed apt to use a zesty example.

    For all the veinpopping handwringing around here, you'd think I said the actor who really got inside Lincoln's head was John Wilkes Booth or something.
    79. DJS is Unbroken, By and By posted on February 26, 2013 at 02:27 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Dan, is the front-page line on the magazine even accurate? Are the Orioles predicted to finish last, or are they just the most likely team to finish last among the five in the AL East? If they're not better than a 50 percent chance to finish last, then "will finish last" is not correct (not that statheads would be to blame).


    It's actually just a reference to a little PECOTA infographic in the middle that has the O's at 74-88. At that record, PECOTA may very well have the O's as >50% to finish in the cellar.

    ZiPS has them around .500 and much closer to the rest of the pack (and less than 50%) but the ZiPS stuff (except for some fantasy ODDIBE stuff in this issue) will be in the official Baseball Preview issue. Still sorting out what ZiPS stuff will be in the magazine and what will be on the site.

    The focus in this issue is more of an overview over what stats are being used in different sports, Miller breaking down what WAR is (you guys all know it, but the vast majority of the public does not know how it's calculated), and some tidbits here and there, plus some info on the MIT/Sloan conference.
    80. Matt Garza smells it deep (Mr. Tapeworm) posted on February 26, 2013 at 02:32 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    For all the veinpopping handwringing around here, you'd think I said the actor who really got inside Lincoln's head was John Wilkes Booth or something.


    So if I give John Wilkes Booth a gun with 15 chambers, and they each have a bullet, you're comfortable sitting in a crowded theater?


    81. DJS is Unbroken, By and By posted on February 26, 2013 at 02:36 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    <dupe>
    82. Never Give an Inge (Dave) posted on February 26, 2013 at 03:58 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    The weakness of a model with a 7% risk of ruin wasn't really coming across, so it seemed apt to use a zesty example.

    But (a) does it actually have a 7% "risk of ruin"? You can't just look at the results of one team to determine the accuracy of the model, you have to look at all 30 teams. (b) Would 7% be any worse than other models? Who got the Orioles right last year?
    83. DJS is Unbroken, By and By posted on February 26, 2013 at 04:03 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    But (a) does it actually have a 7% "risk of ruin"? You can't just look at the results of one team to determine the accuracy of the model, you have to look at all 30 teams. (b) Would 7% be any worse than other models? Who got the Orioles right last year?

    The 7% risk of ruin argument doesn't make much sense - even with *perfect* knowledge of how good a team "truly" is, you'd still *expect* to still be horribly off a good percentage of the time. And perfect knowledge could hardly be called a ruinous model.
    84. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on February 26, 2013 at 04:54 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Why would you hate somebody for making a prediction?
    Because fans make predictions based on what they want to be true; therefore, if you make a negative prediction, it must be because you want the team to do badly. Orioles fans are convinced that Keith Law hates the Orioles because he often says negative things about their moves.
    85. Mike Emeigh  posted on February 26, 2013 at 05:14 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Orioles fans are convinced that Keith Law hates the Orioles because he often says negative things about their moves.


    Yes, but Keith Law actually does hate the Orioles :)

    -- MWE
    86. SG posted on February 26, 2013 at 05:19 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    To be fair, I think Keith Law generally hates most things.
    87. Eric J can SABER all he wants to posted on February 26, 2013 at 05:58 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The weakness of a model with a 7% risk of ruin wasn't really coming across, so it seemed apt to use a zesty example.

    I picked the Orioles to miss the playoffs last year, and am still alive. I think your example may have a bit too much zest.
    88. The Id of SugarBear Blanks  posted on February 26, 2013 at 06:04 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    To be fair, I think Keith Law generally hates most things.

    Keith Law molests collies.
    89. Dan posted on February 26, 2013 at 06:39 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Of course the Yankees' probably going to be their worst since 08 or even 00, and the Red Sox isn't exactly looking that much better, so the other O's Jays better make good of this window of opportunity (though with the contract situation of those two, that window may be pretty wide.)


    "Contract situation of those two"? The Red Sox certainly have plenty of issues, but too much money in long term contracts isn't even close to being an issue since The Punto Trade. The Red Sox have two players with guaranteed contracts for 2015: Buchholz at $12.5M and Victorino at $13M.
    90. AJM posted on February 26, 2013 at 07:40 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Still sorting out what ZiPS stuff will be in the magazine and what will be on the site.

    Will you be posting a spreadsheet of the projections?

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