I'd love to see them trade for a legitimate #1 center and actually think they have the pieces to do so.

i hear that danny briere may be available.

Not only that, but teams like the Devils, Senators, and

I didn't finish my thought there. I wanted to say that those teams are struggling right now.

It helps the Leafs that the EC is ####### terrible this season. There are probably about 6 teams that deserve a playoff spot if this continues.

Here's a trivia question in honor of Marian Hossa's 1000th game, and another event that happened today:

Name the NHL's active leader in games played. No cheating.

selanne

Is #3. Also I wouldn't ask if it was obvious, duh. So no, Jagr is #2.

well Jagr may be number one in a few short days

#1 was the LEGENDARY Roman Hamrlik, for those not playing at home. He was waived yesterday.

And #4 (Kovalev) was cut yesterday. Brian Rolston (previous #5) retired in the offseason and Jason Arnott (previous #6) failed his physical earlier and is unlikely to play again. So if Teemu and Jagr retire after this year, the entire top of the list will turn over this season, from the high 1300's to the low 1200's in Ray Whitney, "Elbows" Doan and Iginla.

Wrong window.

Ray emery has broken NHL history, winning his first 10 games of the season, no goalie has ever done that.
oh its 21-0-3 now.... halfway home.

and sorry but it's hard not to be a fanboy of this time. This streak will end, but for now I will enjoy it. Also I agree whit what was said before I would like to see more Saad. I say thinks knowing Carcilio scored the game winner tonight.

The Maple Leafs won against the Senators and that gives them two straight against teams that they will compete with for a playoff spot. They are going to play the Bruins tomorrow night and that one could get ugly. Third game in four nights against a team that absolutely owns them.

About a week ago, I picked last night to be the end of the 'hawks streak. It was the last game of a 5-in-7 and 3-in-4, against a struggling but fast team. Not that broken up about being wrong.

And down they go, oh well 21-1-3 aint too shabby.

Congratulations, Hawks. But they don't give out trophies in March.

Big week for the Leafs. They'll play Winnipeg twice and a couple of wins would make a playoff appearance a lot more likely.

The Maple Leafs annual collapse looks like it is in full swing.

The Leafs just beat the Bruins for the first time in two years. Hardly a dominant effort, as they were outshot 33-13. But two points are two points.

As good as the Hawks have been, I'd have to say that the Penguins have to be the favorites. They were red hot before they got Malkin back and traded for Iginla et al. They are absolutely stacked.

As long as the Leafs don't completely collapse, it looks like they are going to make the playoffs. It looked like they were going to collapse but now have not been beaten in regulation in their last 7 games.

As good as the Hawks have been, I'd have to say that the Penguins have to be the favorites. They were red hot before they got Malkin back and traded for Iginla et al. They are absolutely stacked.

crosby broke his jaw and is out indefinitely.

Man, how long have the Flyers been trying to figure out their goaltending situation? It's amazing. It seems like whatever they decide, it's the wrong decision. They just traded for Chris Mason, formerly of the Blue Jackets. Mason was relegated to backup duty behind a guy, Bobrovsky, who has been excellent for Colombus after being traded by Philly.

The Leafs didn't do much at the deadline and that's what made the most sense for them anyway.

Crosby's season is probably over, and if so, the Penguins are going to be the most vulnerable 1 seed ever. Sometimes a good team just gets wrecked by injuries and there's not much else to say about it. Malkin's been in and out of the lineup, Letang has a groin injury that isn't going away until he rests for three months, and Paul Martin's season was over, just when he was actually being a useful player again. James Neal hasn't been injured that I know of, but he's had suckitis most of the year. The only really good player on the team that hasn't missed time injured is Brandon Sutter. And Chris Kunitz, if you count him as really good, I guess.

The Flyers' problem is that they refuse to acknowledge that NHL goaltenders are basically fungible. Numerous teams have this problem, but the combination of being in Philadelphia, a long string of bad goaltending luck, and a front office flailing around desperately trying to fix the perceived problem has blown it out of proportion there.

The Flyers' problem is that they refuse to acknowledge that NHL goaltenders are basically fungible.

I think you need excellent goaltending to win in the NHL playoffs. Sometimes, that can be provided by a good goalie getting hot and sometimes it is provided by an excellent goalie. I don't think goaltenders are fungible at all if competing for a Cup is a reasonable expectation for your team.

I don't think goaltenders are fungible at all if competing for a Cup is a reasonable expectation for your team.

By way of counterpoint I'll just list the last ten Stanley Cup winning goaltenders:

Jonathan Quick
Tim Thomas
Antti Niemi
Marc-Andre Fleury
Chris Osgood
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
Cam Ward
Nikolai Khabibulin
Martin Brodeur
Dominik Hasek

In fairness setting the cutoff at ten years stops it just as a short run of Hall of Fame goalies winning Cups is concluding. In counter-fairness, if I set it at eight years instead of ten I have list with no HOF goalies on it at all and several that were just random guys that got hot in the playoffs or had a career year (Khabibulin, Ward, Giguere, Niemi, and, as unduly hyped being a #1 pick made him, Fleury. Also Quick may well fall into that category.)

Sorry, but I don't think the evidence supports your argument. Goaltenders in the NHL are like running backs in the NFL: dramatically overvalued because (a) they have an obviously important job, and (b) at lower levels of competition where skill disparity is much greater, they do matter a lot. But at the highest level there's a certain minimum skill you need to play there, and past that minimum the returns diminish extremely quickly.

Investing big cap space in a goalie, in the current NHL cap environment, is probably always a mistake. Put another way, the Flyers' blunder wasn't investing heavily in Bryzgalov; it was investing heavily in a goalie at all. Take that $5-6 million a year in cap space and invest it in a great defenseman or a couple good ones and it will be better for your team's defense.

It's funny but I look at that list and I see some very talented guys. Quick had two excellent seasons prior to this one (a weird one because of the lookout). Thomas had a pretty superb run of 5 years. Fleury is an obviously talented guy whose results haven't always matched the talent but there's a reason he was picked first overall. I'll give you Osgood because the Wings always ran a pretty good system. Giguere's overall numbers aren't outstanding but his prime was excellent. Ward has been excellent for most of the last five years.

We may actually be in agreement. I think there are about 15 goalies who are talented enough to win a Cup in the NHL, half of them by playing like they normally do and the other half are talented guys who need to be hot during the playoffs. That might be fungible to some people.

We may actually be in agreement. I think there are about 15 goalies who are talented enough to win a Cup in the NHL, half of them by playing like they normally do and the other half are talented guys who need to be hot during the playoffs. That might be fungible to some people.

That's where our disagreement lies; I think there are about 40 of them.

The reason Fleury was picked #1 was that he was (and is) extraordinarily agile even for a goaltender, and it caused everyone to think 'ZOMG next Dominik Hasek!' Unfortunately he has severe ADD and probably already holds the career record for soft goals allowed. He offsets this somewhat by making a number of genuinely remarkable saves that a lot of goaltenders could not make. On balance, though, he is and always has been a below-average goaltender.

I might be overrating goalies because the Leafs have had such terrible time finding a competent one.

It's the same thing with the Flyers. The more bad luck you have with goalies the more inclined you get to panic and keep changing them every few months, and the problem snowballs.

The Maple Leafs' struggles keeping the puck out of their net have a lot more to do with bad defensemen than bad goaltenders.

Man, how long have the Flyers been trying to figure out their goaltending situation? It's amazing. It seems like whatever they decide, it's the wrong decision.

ain't that the truth.

i think the best case scenario is that the flyers buyout bryzgalov, tender mason so that he's on the team next year, and resign joacim eriksson, who was drafted by the flyers and is tearing apart the SEL.

Take that $5-6 million a year in cap space and invest it in a great defenseman or a couple good ones

matt carle makes $5+ million per year and he is neither a great defenseman nor a good one.

We may actually be in agreement. I think there are about 15 goalies who are talented enough to win a Cup in the NHL, half of them by playing like they normally do and the other half are talented guys who need to be hot during the playoffs. That might be fungible to some people.

That's where our disagreement lies; I think there are about 40 of them.

i'm closer to agreement with 40 than 15. but then i think an issue that comes into play is that a lot of those 40 goalies are backups to one of the other 40 goalies (schneider and luongo in VAN, quick and bernier in LA), and also that a lot of those 40 goalies play on teams that have nowhere near enough talent to sniff the playoffs, let alone the cup.

The Maple Leafs' struggles keeping the puck out of their net have a lot more to do with bad defensemen than bad goaltenders.

It's a chicken or the egg argument. Are the Leafs actually better defensively this year or are they doing better because Reimer has played well. I happen to think Reimer is a quality goalie. He has a very good minor league track record and has played quite well in the NHL when healthy. Are the Leafs better because of the defense or does the Leaf defense look better because of their goaltending?

The problem with goalies is that a bad one can absolutely tank a great team into irrelevance, but a great goalie doesn't guarantee you great goaltending either. It's pretty much the same as relief pitching, you need it to win but it doesn't make sense to pay top dollar for it.

Pretty crazy deadline day after all that talk about how it would be historically slow.

My team will probably use both compliance buyouts, so I shouldn't complain, but I'm pissed that the Flyers are going to get to buy out Bryzgalov. That management team should be punished for a decade for their stupendously awful decision making. You could see this coming the day they signed that contract.

2 of those 10 goalies are sure fire hall of famers (Marty and Dom) a third (thomas) had arguably the greatest season a goalie has ever had and has been mentioned as a hall of famer. Without commenting on the others, who are largely good or better players... that doesn't seem fungible,

Nonsense.

Conveniently, both the "sure-fire" hall of famers are wildly overrated, and that argument would lose badly, since Hasek had two seasons better than Thomas' best. Quick, Thomas, Brodeur and Hasek are great goalies, but that doesn't prove anything more than Niemi, Osgood, Khabibulin and Giguere do the other way.

Is there anyone who does a transaction oracle for the NHL? I check puck daddy and TSN and the hockey news, but none of them understand even basic value in the modern NHL, or if they do, they throw it out the window every other analysis. It doesn't have to be advance stats or anything, just that they understand basic concepts like the cap, the difference between a player with years left and one who's contract is expiring, that even great players can be bad values if their contracts suck, that draft picks have real value, that all prospects aren't the same, etc.

matt carle makes $5+ million per year and he is neither a great defenseman nor a good one.

Yeah, well, as with all contracts in all sports, you can't really help a front office that goes around giving big contracts to mediocre players.

The Penguins have a similar problem (James Neal, to a lesser extent Chris Kunitz) where they put a decent but fairly mediocre forward who has a nice enough shot but doesn't really add value in any other facet of the game with one of the most talented offensive centers in the game, and when he scores a bunch of goals they think they have a star and give him star money. You can't get away with that kind of mistake with the modern cap, especially not when you're already grossly overpaying your goaltender and have two bona fide superstars requiring max contracts. It leaves you with no choice but to fill out your roster with guys making near the minimum.

edit: naturally having two superstars is a problem every other team would love to have. I'm just commenting on the cap space challenges it presents.

edit 2: I wonder if the Penguins play terrible defense and lose in the first round again (which is certainly possible if Crosby doesn't play) they would consider buying Fleury out. Up till now there's no way they could have done it without inciting a fan mutiny, but another early and ugly playoff exit could swing the prevailing fan opinion the other way.

Is there anyone who does a transaction oracle for the NHL? I check puck daddy and TSN and the hockey news, but none of them understand even basic value in the modern NHL, or if they do, they throw it out the window every other analysis. It doesn't have to be advance stats or anything, just that they understand basic concepts like the cap, the difference between a player with years left and one who's contract is expiring, that even great players can be bad values if their contracts suck, that draft picks have real value, that all prospects aren't the same, etc.

I'd say Hockey Prospectus, but it looks like they only analyzed Dallas' deals.

What do you think of the Handzus trade? I think it's a good move if it keeps Bollig and/or Mayers out of the lineup, but I'm not sure if he'll be able to keep up with the Hawks' overall speed. I'm getting Andrew Brunette deja vu (though Handzus should not be near the top line).

I think he's a lot more Ryan Johnson than John Madden, and I don't get it, to be honest.

The newspapers all lead with it being a move to bolster the faceoffs, but that makes no sense. Yeah, he's won 55% of his faceoffs this year, but in the past 3 he was around 51, which is nothing special. And if they wanted a FOGO (face-off get-off) guy, they have Mayers, who has actual bonafides at the dot. Plus, you know, faceoffs aren't that important. The only thing he's good at anymore are shootouts, which are irrelevant for the hawks now, and penalty killing, at which the hawks have been excellent. It's a no-cost move since they have cap space and there's no more roster limit, but I don't see the point. The downside is Q plays him at 2C and it's Brunette redux, like you say.

The Penguins have a similar problem (James Neal, to a lesser extent Chris Kunitz) where they put a decent but fairly mediocre forward who has a nice enough shot but doesn't really add value in any other facet of the game with one of the most talented offensive centers in the game, and when he scores a bunch of goals they think they have a star and give him star money.

You'd think the owner of the team (Mario Lemieux) would remember when he played and how he turned a journeyman (Rob Brown) into a star (for a couple of seasons), and avoid making the same mistake.

i think the best case scenario is that the flyers buyout bryzgalov, tender mason so that he's on the team next year, and resign joacim eriksson, who was drafted by the flyers and is tearing apart the SEL.

LOL, Joacim Erikson. There's a reason he's in Europe.

The Penguins have a similar problem (James Neal, to a lesser extent Chris Kunitz)

Neal was a good player in Dallas. But yes, I hope they give Kunitz a contract he doesn't deserve. And that Iginla doesn't take much of a pay cut. They have 7 or 8 UFAs, 3 or 4 RFAs and only about $8M in cap space next year. They're not on the verge of crippling themselves but they did some mortgaging this year, and Malkin and Letang hit free agency after next season.

That's where our disagreement lies; I think there are about 40 of them.

You're saying a below average goalie can win you a Cup. Which has never happened.

It's funny but I look at that list and I see some very talented guys.

Agreed. Niemi is the only outlier to me, and if the Flyers didn't have dogshit in goal he wouldn't be on the list.

Neal was a good player in Dallas. But yes, I hope they give Kunitz a contract he doesn't deserve.

This is probably pretty likely since Crosby and Kunitz are BFFs.

Neal was a good player in Dallas. But yes, I hope they give Kunitz a contract he doesn't deserve. And that Iginla doesn't take much of a pay cut. They have 7 or 8 UFAs, 3 or 4 RFAs and only about $8M in cap space next year. They're not on the verge of crippling themselves but they did some mortgaging this year, and Malkin and Letang hit free agency after next season.

Letang's as good as gone. He'll command max or near-max money and they don't have the cap space. I'm not sure how I feel about this; he's extremely talented, but also injured almost constantly. I think I'm OK with letting another team overpay him to hop in and out of the lineup for the next seven years.

You're saying a below average goalie can win you a Cup. Which has never happened.

Except it has. Fleury and Osgood were both below-average goalies when they played for the Cup two consecutive years.

Except it has. Fleury and Osgood were both below-average goalies when they played for the Cup two consecutive years.

Osgood was good (say that five times fast) in 07-08. In 08-09 he wasn't, but they didn't win. Fleury wasn't great (and has since become overrated) but I don't see 15 goalies that were better than him that year.

Osgood was good (say that five times fast) in 07-08.

By what measure? He was 22nd in raw save percentage. By Alan Ryder's Point Contribution analysis, he was the 31st best goalie in the NHL regular season. Niemi was 19th in his Cup-winning season. I think they were both below-average goalies who won the Cup. Ward wasn't even the starter for most of his Cup-winning season and doesn't rank in the top 30 of Point Contribution goalies for that year.

By what measure? He was 22nd in raw save percentage.

Where are you getting 22nd from? I see him being 16th among starters. Anyways, save percentage isn't the be all and end all. Lundqvist was a little worse despite leading the league in shutouts, Luongo was a little better. Those two of course were well above average goalies.

I am giving Osgood too much credit on memory. He split the season with Hasek that year, who wasn't very good. I agree that you don't need a sure fire HOFer to win between the pipes, but I don't agree that there are 40 goalies that you can win with either. There's probably about 20.

ard wasn't even the starter for most of his Cup-winning season

I don't see how that matters.

Where are you getting 22nd from?

I...don't know. Sorry about that, you are right.

There's probably about 20.

I think this is about right, and means that it is possible to win with a below-average starter. I don't know if that makes them truly fungible, but there sure aren't a lot of goalies I would give a big contract to. (As a Montreal fan, though, I will be happy if Carey Price proves me wrong about this).

I think this is about right, and means that it is possible to win with a below-average starter. I don't know if that makes them truly fungible, but there sure aren't a lot of goalies I would give a big contract to.

It all depends on how you define "average." Is the 16th best goalie really "below average"? From a strict sense, okay, but what is separating him from the 15th best? Or 12th best? Personally I like tiers or groupings better. Of course, it's all subjective anyway. Completely agree there are only a handful of goalies I would give a big contract to. The problem is they're almost never available.

There is not one goaltender in the NHL right now I would give a big contract (more than about $3.5 million a year) to. There hasn't been since Hasek and Roy were at their peaks, I don't think. Brodeur just on consistency, maybe, but there's a lot of question as to where his skill starts and the Devils' team defense ends.

$3.5M is not a big contract. There are 241 players who make that or more, including 22 goalies.

You wouldn't pay Henrik Lundqvist $4M?

I might spare him $4M because he's so marketable. I would certainly not go as high as $5. Which is why I'd never have a consensus "best goalie in the league" on my team; they cost max contracts or damn close to it, and no goalie can be worth that much cap space. There just isn't enough gap between the best goalie in the NHL and the 25th best to justify it.

Alex Ovechkin has scored 16 goals in his last 14 games. That's not points, that's goals. He now is tied with Stamkos for the league lead. It's nice to see Ovechkin be the guy he was a few years ago. The guy was so dynamic.

It's nice to see Ovechkin be the guy he was a few years ago.

I'm just glad to get a brief respite from the constant "What's Wrong With Ovechkin" columns, when the answer is just that goalscorers peak relatively young and the team got a fair bit worse/was coached by someone out of his depth.