My statement was more definite than I intended. The point I was trying to raise was around the value of Lupul. Their has been quite a bit written about it over the last year.

I think that's a poor way to evaluate players.

The hockey analyst community has moved away from goal based metrics to shot based metrics to a large degree. The advantages of a shot based metric is:
- larger N. (particularly in include missed and blocked shots)
- eliminates the impact of goaltending.
- better future correlation than goal ratio

It does lose some pecision particularly in terms of players who generate higher quality shots, however, on a seasonal basis most think that is overcome by the larger n, additionally, their is readily available shot based metrics that adjust for various contexts. Shot based metrics right now are the best measure of puck possession available.

This is a good summary:
http://www.fearthefin.com/2012/8/10/3232773/non-traditional-metrics-glossary-corsi

In re to Lupul, even if you through the advanced metrics out play by play analysis indicates he wasn't driving the play on his line:

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/3/5/who-made-who-kessel-and-lupul

through 8 games, the hawks have yet to lose in regulation.... looks like game 8 will go to a shoot out

hawks fall in a shoot out again go to 6-0-2. and 14 points. I wlll take it, shows they have better goal tending and defense. just need to get the offense going full steam

They looked pretty terrible early, but got stronger as the game went on. Hopefully the Bolland injury isn't serious, 'cause it looked bad.

That check by Backes in the STL-DET game that got him a misconduct might not have been a hit to the head, but it was a textbook late hit.

oh, and i really want to like tom sestito, but i can't help but feel that he's going to pass out from exhaustion any time he's caught on the ice for more than 15 consecutive seconds. i don't even think that has anything to do with the lockout, either. i think he's just not capable of doing it.

and right after i say it, the goon scores the only two flyers goals in a 2-1 win over the highest scoring team in the NHL. bryz played out of his ####### mind, rinaldo beat some guy up so badly that when he was asked what day it was, he said "purple". the forecheck was outstanding, but i still can't help but feel that the team just isn't talented enough. they've started to shore up some of the schematic issues, but i look at tamp and they have stamkos, st louis, and lecavalier, and i look at new york and they have nash, gaborik, richards and callahan, and i look at boston and they have kreijci and lucic and seguin, and then i look at the flyers and i just do not see the same depth of top tier talent.


when i look at the best things about the first 10 games of this season, i'm looking at kurtis foster and bruno gervais not being horrendous, i'm looking at tye mcginn having come out of nowhere to earn his minutes on the top line, and i'm looking at ilya bryzgalov playing out of his gourd, but doing it on a team that can't score, whereas if he'd have played like this last year, he might have won a conn smythe.

Gervais was directly responsible for the goal against tonight. Absolutely boneheaded play by him.

I wonder how many points gets you into the playoffs this year, it has to be around 50 right? i cant see it being higher then that with on 96 possible points this year

12-0-4 is the all time best start (06-07 ducks) with out a regulation loss, hawks are 8-0-2 they could get there...

wonder how many points gets you into the playoffs this year, it has to be around 50 right? i cant see it being higher then that with on 96 possible points this year

Based on the Caps' pace last year, it'd be 53. If the short season means more teams play for overtime and 1 guaranteed point, it might be more like 55 or something.

And speaking of the Hawks, I hope Kane's scoring and the undefeated streak doesn't convince Q that the Sharp-Bolland-Kane line is anything other than a disaster. It does nothing well and neutralizes both their best pure offensive player and their best defensive forward. Knowing Q, it probably wouldn't last even if it was a great line, but it's frustrating to watch for now.

I wonder how many points gets you into the playoffs this year, it has to be around 50 right? i cant see it being higher then that with on 96 possible points this year

In 94-95 50 was pretty much the threshold. But the inflated point totals of the shootout push it a little higher. I agree that 55 is more like it.

And speaking of the Hawks, I hope Kane's scoring and the undefeated streak doesn't convince Q that the Sharp-Bolland-Kane line is anything other than a disaster. It does nothing well and neutralizes both their best pure offensive player and their best defensive forward. Knowing Q, it probably wouldn't last even if it was a great line, but it's frustrating to watch for now.

They have been amazingly unproductive given the talent level. Their corsi numbers are horrific, in double digit negatives despite very favorable zone starts.

Which is funny to complain about when Kane is 3rd in the league in points. But he's mostly been scoring when not with his regular linemates, and they've been responsible for a big chunk of the goals against.

2 more points, and fighting Torres got out of the way quickly, allowing the beatdown to begin

From NHL.com's sidebar:

WATCH: Sideline reporter hit in face by puck

I mean, I realize that they just put that WATCH: before videos, but sheesh. If they're gonna have headlines like that it should be WATCH: Man gets hit in groin with puck.

12-0-2! 12-0-4 is the best atart with out a regulation loss. Just gotta keep up.

Oops 10-0-2

The Leafs are unlucky. They are 7-5 and about to go to 8-5 but it looks James Reimer is going to be out for a significant time period with a leg injury. Reimer has played at the level of a number 1 goalie when he's been healthy so far in the NHL and the Leafs are a better team when they have a legit #1. This could be disastrous.

Oh, hey, Erik Karlsson got his achilles tendon cut by a skate blade tonight. Neat. Please excuse me while I go into the other room to weep and throw things and curse God.

Yeah, don't watch that slow motion replay. Horrible.

Oh, hey, Erik Karlsson got his achilles tendon cut by a skate blade tonight. Neat. Please excuse me while I go into the other room to weep and throw things and curse God.

Yeah, don't watch that slow motion replay. Horrible.

yeah, that was matt cooke. he gets no benefit of the doubt there. i'm sure he'll be suspended for a whole 2 games for doing it, but he should not ever step on NHL ice again.

If he did it on purpose, I'm impressed. That takes practice. So I doubt it was on purpose, but his leg should have never been up in the air anyway. I suppose he could just be that off balance, but at best he didn't make any effort to not knee Karlsson. I think he should get a game off for recklessness, though the whinging from the Penguins will be unbearable.

If he did it on purpose, I'm impressed.

It would astound me if that was purposeful. I can't stand the Pens or Cooke either, but I can't see how it's anything worse than reckless.

Yeah, Cooke's a dick but there's no way he did that on purpose. Although it sure as hell looked like the only reason his skate was off the ice was because he was trying to slew foot Karlsson.

I couldn't load the video, but apparently Aaron Ward said on TSN that players do that to pin the player against the boards. It's strange, but obviously I'll take his word on it.

The interesting thing now is whether they will increase or mandate use of kevlar in the socks.

Wtf towes just got in a fight with thorton. No sound at the bar so I dont know why.

I imagine this was a particularly demoralizing defeat for the Flyers.

Yeah, Cooke's a dick but there's no way he did that on purpose. Although it sure as hell looked like the only reason his skate was off the ice was because he was trying to slew foot Karlsson.

I agree. I've watched the replay a couple dozen times, and I can't wrap my mind around how that wasn't a dirty play by Cooke. I doubt he was trying to cut Karlsson's achilles--I don't think Cooke is skilled enough to pull that precise a maneuver off--but it doesn't look to me like he was merely off balance. He picked his foot up and brought it down. I watch players pin players against the boards all the time, and Cooke was doing more than that.

I have to hand it to Matt Cooke though. He puts the artistry in cheap shots, getting away with one even while all eyes are watching him.

Will Laviolette ever wear out his welcome with the Sniders?

sens owner seems to want him out of the league. either way seems to be a bad play all around

The Senators' owner is kind of a notorious blowhard, though.

Wtf towes just got in a fight with thorton. No sound at the bar so I dont know why.

Probably because Toews hates Thorton, kind of like how he hates Backes. A lot of people suspect Thorton was who concussed Toews last year.

Will Laviolette ever wear out his welcome with the Sniders?

Laviolette has his faults but the front office is the much larger problem. So they'll fire Lavy instead of Holmgren because they're stupid.

It looks like the Leafs have a goalie controversy on their hands and not the bad kind that they are used to. James Riemer was playing well when he got injured and Ben Scrivens has been spectacular since taking over the reins. Scrivens got his second straight shutout tonight. The Leafs have gotten some excellent goaltending so far this year.

Laviolette has his faults but the front office is the much larger problem. So they'll fire Lavy instead of Holmgren because they're stupid.

Oh, no way. Richards, Carter, and van Riemsdyk are all gone because of Laviolette. I don't think that Holmgren has been the one steering the ship since the Cup run in 2010.

Richards, Carter, and van Riemsdyk are all gone because of Laviolette.

No they're not.

I don't think that Holmgren has been the one steering the ship since the Cup run in 2010.

Snider's been, but Holmgren has done nothing to warrant keeping his job.

The hawks are just amazing this year. I can't recall a team playing this well for this long. ( I know the ducks did it a few years ago but still the hawks if the score holds will go 13-0-3 where as the ducks went 12-0-4

ah a Canuck player with a dirty play? theres a shock. It really sucks to see Hossa get a head shot (elbow not leaping check)

aw Hansen wont fight thats sad to see. At least step up and pay for that hit

Damn its going to a shoot out.....still got the point and tied the recond....the shoot out win gives them record breaking win...

Hawks win!!!

Pour one out for Lindy. It was probably time for a change, just because all coaches have expiration dates, but I liked having one guy in the league with some continuity.

And if they're gonna get rid of him, they should have done it in the offseason, and Darcy Tucker should ride shotgun.

someone on wikipedia already gave the blackhawks the record for most games to start the season with out a regulation loss

This team is amazing 14-0-3!

15-0-3! Once again this team is a lot of fun to watch. Going to be a weird feeling when they finally do lose a game.

So apparently the conference re-alignment thing is on again.

Using the previous re-alignment list, there are three changes (the names were made up by me):

Snowbird Conference (7 8 teams): Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Tampa, Florida, Detroit

NYC-Based-Rivalry-Maintenance Conference (7 8 teams): NY Islanders, NY Rangers, NJ Devils, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, Columbus

Norris Conference (8 7 teams): Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Dallas, Nashville, Columbus, Colorado

Latenight Conference (8 7 teams): San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Colorado

Pretty much the same, except that the whiner's in Detroit and Columbus both get their way, and it makes future re-alignment (like PHX->YQB much more difficult).

As a Blackhawks fan, I hate it for many reasons:
-It destroys the Detroit-Chicago rivalry, which is both ancient and both teams have been excellent recently. IMO, DET-CHI games are the best hockey games of the last few years, since both teams are fast and skilled and low on shenanigans.
-The playoffs will be mind-numbing and talent-negating, with MORE THAN HALF of the teams in the 7-team conferences making the playoffs, and then having to play each other for two full rounds. I groan at the idea of playing the same teams over and over, not as the result of skill but just systematically.
-The above makes the regular season meaningless in some of the conferences.
-The odd-sized conferences are still there and nothing has been resolved, only now the conferences are even more unbalanced. The east-coast bias will be even more in effect.
-The Blackhawks now have a HUGE competitive advantage in their conference.

No they're not.

The first two are the Dry Island casualties, and Laviolette could find a reason to criticize JVR over anything. Holmgren has done what he can with getting Voracek (who would be third in the league in scoring without his dreadful first week and a half) and Simmonds.

On that last point, by throwing out any consideration other than geography, the conferences will be systematically unbalanced. I'd like to use market size, but I don't know of a source that has both the US and Canadian markets with a single definition. So here's payroll from capgeek:


And my point about the Blackhawks, other than Chicago, the entire conference is small markets. The only other team with a market more than half as big as Chicago is Dallas, who have a pauper owner. The only big-spending team is Minnesota, and that's a new thing. Winnipeg is CANADIAN!!1! but has an AHL arena and a tiny market.

The biggest thing that I think needs to change there is to move one of Columbus/Detroit back to the Norris. In part because that gives you a 15/15 league split rather than 16/14. I agree with you that Detroit/Chicago is a rivalry that really shouldn't be broken up. That's a disappointing one to lose.

I like the 4 teams per conference playing through like they did in the 80s. Familiarity breeds contempt and I think that's one of the things that creates a real hatred and a fun rivalry.

How did Nashville stay in the west? seems like a team fit for the east with tampa and florda etc. why not switch them with Detroit?

How did Nashville stay in the west? seems like a team fit for the east with tampa and florda etc. why not switch them with Detroit?

Because the entire thing is a shell game? If it were a real geographic re-alignment, the Canadian teams wouldn't be thrown together with the Florida teams and Detroit would be in the Central. Instead, it's a short-sighted move based on quieting some whiny owners (Mike Illitch, Stinger the Blue Jacket) and maximizing US TV ratings (Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals).

The reason the NHL would give is that Nashville is CST.

-The odd-sized conferences are still there and nothing has been resolved, only now the conferences are even more unbalanced. The east-coast bias will be even more in effect.

what if two of the teams were contracted? does the NHL really need teams in carolina, phoenix, tampa bay, and nashville? they've been talking about contraction for a while, but now that the CBA has been resolved, if it's ever going to be done, now would be the time.

and w/r/t the conferences, my preference would be for something like this:

(CHI, DET, MIN, BUF, WPG, TOR, MTL, OTT) - you get 4 of the original 6 plus 4 canadian teams in the same group.
(PIT, PHI, NYR, NYI, NJD, BOS, WAS) - you keep the atlantic division together and add washington and boston which gives you a potentially stacked BOS/PHI/NY/WAS rivalry (one that no other sport has, btw)
(FLA, TB, CAR, NSH, DAL, STL, CLB) - out of sight out of mind
(LAK, ANA, COL, CGY, VAN, EDM, SJ, PHX) - you get 3 canadian teams, plus the southwest, plus colorado.

and then, when the playoffs come, i think you ditch any divisional/conference alignment and just put the teams in one big pot where 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, and so on.