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Page 3 of 3 pages
And if you think about it, it's easy to understand why it can't be a big deal. With nobody on all outs are equal. That's around 55% of all PAs (or was back when I last checked -- won't be hugely different these days). Roughly 33% of all PAs come with two outs. All outs are equal.
But there's still the question if, a hitter could change his wing to K less, would he get enough additional base hits (on top of the ROEs and productive outs) to offset any loss of power.
That one is almost impossible to test.
Of course in terms of team value, that probably tips the scale in favor of "productive" outs in a way that overvalues them in the context of what they wind up "producing" in actual runs. If Gwynn moves a runner up with a groundout, but the runner winds up being stranded, the "productivity" of that "productive" out has been re-set to zero.
Just for the record, I have never claimed that Bonds's late career ability to cut down on his strikeouts had anything to do with steroids. I'll let snapper speak for himself.
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