Isn't a steal of home down by a run with two outs pretty high in the "high risk/high reward" department?

Generally speaking the steal of home with two out has a break even point somewhere around 35%. But that's for a runner on third alone. Other baserunners complicate the matter.

In this situation you've got a really good pitcher, a less than awesome hitter arguing for an even lower break even point, but that runner on second complicates matters. An awful lot of singles win the game.

Since you'll never know the precise odds of actually making it, I think the runner on third should go any time there's a chance.

MLB, for no particular reason, has stated it is considering making this move illegal next year. For now, it remains a legal play.

Well, it's inconsistent with the spirit of the balk rule to allow a move based on a fake throw. I think that at least qualifies as a reason.

Well, it's inconsistent with the spirit of the balk rule to allow a move based on a fake throw. I think that at least qualifies as a reason.

Faking a throw to the other two occupyable bases has been legal for a long, long time, perhaps as long as the balk rule and its spirit. Moreover, there are numerous legal plays that violate said spirit that MLB is doing nothing to change. I'm sticking with no particular reason.

Jansen doesn't have that much pitching experience to be able to concentrate as closely on runners and the batter at the same time.

The thing about a steal of home is that the pitcher has to be very concerned about not balking. And the play is so rare, and the balk rules are so arcane, that it must be almost impossible to do everything on instinct; the pitcher has to think carefully about what to do, while the potential tying run is steaming toward the plate. It's not an easy position to be in.

as it appeared that Brandon Belt wasn't paying much attention after receiving the errant throw.

This is totally wrong. He threw home as soon as there was someone around the plate to take the throw, and did so quickly & accurately. I would say that of the Giants involved in that play, he was the most aware and quick-reacting, not the least.

agree with petunia

38. Perros Posted: July 15, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4183033)
Once you're caught with your head up your ass, it's almost impossible to recover gracefully.


So now you're talking about your sex life on The Mainland too??????

"This is totally wrong. He threw home as soon as there was someone around the plate to take the throw, and did so quickly & accurately. I would say that of the Giants involved in that play, he was the most aware and quick-reacting, not the least."

Just watched the replay again. It looks like to me Belt hesitates with his back to the plate before realizing Maxwell is breaking home, but you are right that the catcher was late covering home.