BBTF.org/m/pennant_race : AL playoff race: October 2, 2012

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Washington Post: Tom Boswell: Yankees Are Monuments To Baseball Success

(www.washingtonpost.com)

posted 3 days ago by The Yankee Clapper to aging, great baseball players, injuries, pennant race, veteran leadership, yankees | 15 comment(s)

Boz pays homage to the gritty, gutsy, scrappy, first place 2013 underdog Yankees:

Perhaps for the first time in their history, the Yankees now epitomize exactly the kind of team that always used to try to beat them: a group of inspired-by-adversity, too-old-or-too-young, one-last-chance players who band together to prove that baseball is a team game, not just an aggregation of talent and fat contracts.

Put a few all-star seasons, such as Cano’s 31 RBI, Kiroda’s 1.99 ERA and Rivera’s 16 ...

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51. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

posted on October 03, 2012 at 10:27 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.

Yep. I mean, I enjoy snatching $3 tickets off Stub Hub, but in a perfect world I'd pay a little bit more to get them from the box office. A little bit more, mind you. Not ten times more.

My only guess is that the Yanks feel that they can live with the embarrassment of seeing all those empty seats, and are putting their hopes on better economic conditions bringing back the crowds from 2009.

Personally I think that's a dubious strategy, since in 2009 you had a new stadium, two prize free agents, the best Yankees team since 1998, and plenty of season tickets sold before the full impact of the 2008 crash really set in. Not to mention the fact that the knowledge of all those StubHub bargains is pretty much universal by now.

52. Karl from NY posted on October 03, 2012 at 10:42 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I find the Yankees' situation pleasingly symmetric (I'm not a fan, just commenting.) They can win any of three shots to reach the ALDS: game 162, tiebreaker game 163, or the wild card game. Or any Orioles loss. It's the most complicated magic number 1 ever.

53. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 03, 2012 at 10:49 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Not to be harsh, but that's nonsense. The goal is to win the world series, and you do whatever you can to maximize your ability to achieve that goal. It sounds like if the choice were between Greg Maddux or some AAA call-up for the wild card, you’d be advocating the execrable thing. So you don't really disagree with my strategy, just my assessment of the relative talent of Tillman and Saunders.

I think even if the choice is between Maddux and some AAA Call Up you still go with Maddux. Even Maddux in a one and done situation is too close to a 50-50 bet for me to feel comfortable with. Baseball is just not a game that you can go into feeling especially confident in any one game. Weird #### happens so win the game in front of you and hope for the best.

54. bob gee posted on October 03, 2012 at 10:56 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

#45 (gangnam style) - youtube it. really funny video, my thought was "rock me amadeus for 2012!".

the only reason i found out about it was checking up to see what the ohio university band was doing for 2012, and saw that they did that. ohio u. band did an awesome one for lmfao's party rock anthem last year.

55. Chris Fluit posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:00 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Oddly enough, the only contending club that gets to take it easy is the seventh-place Detroit Tigers.

Yes, but Cabrera should win the MVP over Trout because he lead his team to the playoffs and Trout didn't. And yes, I've seen people make that argument in the last couple of days.

56. SoSH U at work posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:04 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm kind of surprised that DKDC seems to be alone here. While I think the O's should be playing the game to win, they surely have a much, much better chance of winning the play-in game than they do of getting to AND winning a one-game playoff against the Yankees (it doesn't really help to get to the one-game playoff and lose), and thus I think any starting pitching/bullpen decisions should be based on that reality.

57. Yeaarrgghhhh posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:06 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words:

"MOTHERF***ING YANKEES."

How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!

58. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:20 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Can't Hammel pitch on Friday?

Hammel threw 73 pitches in a simulated game on Monday. He probably won’t be on the roster for Friday’s game.

My current understanding is that he's set to pitch the first game of the ALDS, if we make it.

59. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:21 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm kind of surprised that DKDC seems to be alone here. While I think the O's should be playing the game to win, they surely have a much, much better chance of winning the play-in game than they do of getting to AND winning a one-game playoff against the Yankees (it doesn't really help to get to the one-game playoff and lose), and thus I think any starting pitching/bullpen decisions should be based on that reality.

That's not quite right. If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing), even if we lose we get the play-in game against TEX/OAK at home rather than on the road.

60. Weekly Journalist_ posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:23 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yeah. Making the tiebreaker game is the equivalent of getting an extra chip in Plinko. If you win it, you're in. If you don't, here's chance #2!

61. dr. scott posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:33 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

What makes me sad is that even though there may be two bay area teams in the playoffs on sat and Sunday, It will still be a struggle to get our local bars to turn off a football game to watch them, and no chance for any of the other games.

62. JJ1986 posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:33 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

You'd have to have a lot of numbers to figure out whether throwing Tillman tonight is the right decision:

Yankees chances of winning today: About 75%
O's chances of winning today with Tillman: About 50%
O's chances of winning today with Randy Wolf: 40% maybe?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Tillman: 50%?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Steve Johnson:
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Camden
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Camden

63. SoSH U at work posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:35 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's not quite right. If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing), even if we lose we get the play-in game against TEX/OAK at home rather than on the road.

It's always been a one-game playoff, and I'm not giving it up just because the postseason is getting bigger. The other games can find their own name.

As to your larger point, competitively speaking, I don't see how it matters much. Now, if you're talking other considerations like fan happiness or cash in Angelos pocket, then sure. But in terms of what gives you the best chance of advancing to the Semi-Elite 8, then having a home game vs. a road game in the play-in game is not terribly meaningful (and whatever edge you gain there you probably give right back since your opponent will have the advantage of not playing the day before, and thus have a more rested pitching staff).

Yeah. Making the tiebreaker game is the equivalent of getting an extra chip in Plinko. If you win it, you're in. If you don't, here's chance #2!

Of course, if you get it, you welcome it. The question is to what extent you use your resources to procure that chip.

64. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:49 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing)

That's what happens when we let people decide on their own retarded nomenclature in place of the correct terms for things. If there'd been sufficient push-back when dumbasses started referring to one-game playoffs as "play-in games," there'd be no such confusion when they applied that term to the Wild Card Abomination.

65. JJ1986 posted on October 03, 2012 at 11:52 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Calculating everything with very broad estimates, the Orioles have about a 51% of making the round of 8 with a bullpen game today and a 48% chance of making it with Tillman starting today.

Their shot at the division (if Tillman goes Thursday) is virtually the same either way.

66. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

You'd have to have a lot of numbers to figure out whether throwing Tillman tonight is the right decision:

Yankees chances of winning today: About 75%
O's chances of winning today with Tillman: About 50%
O's chances of winning today with Randy Wolf: 40% maybe?

Ooh, I think we can pretty safely say the chances of that have been overestimated by approximately 40%.

O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Tillman: 50%?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Steve Johnson:

Johnson has an injured knee and is "day-to-day." I believe Showalter intends to skip him this time through the rotation.

67. JJ1986 posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So is Britton going Thursday if there's a game?

68. gef the talking mongoose posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:08 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

(gangnam style) - youtube it. really funny video, my thought was "rock me amadeus for 2012!".

I'll take it under advisement. (I'm actually trying to get adjusted to being able to watch online videos at home, having obtained a new laptop last week to replace an 8-year-old desktop that I decided not to pay to have repaired.)

69. Gern Blanston posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'm very excited for the do-or-die game for the AL West tomorrow. It's very frustrating that the Red Sox squandered that ninth-inning lead, though...

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...

70. The Chronicles of Reddick posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...

That game made me question the existence of God.

71. DKDC posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

#67,

It would probably be a bullpen game without Tillman. It probably starts with Johnson (his knee has improved) for a few innings, then a couple innings a piece from Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Bundy, Patton, etc. depending on how close the game is, and how quickly the Red Sox get blown out.

How about this for a compromise? The O’s start with a bullpen game, and watch the scoreboard. If by some miracle the Red Sox stay in the game, they can plug in Tillman in the 4th or 5th inning (hopefully after wrecking the Rays lineup with platoonery).

72. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes posted on October 03, 2012 at 12:35 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

That game made me question the existence of God.

It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.

73. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 01:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

How about this for a compromise? The O’s start with a bullpen game, and watch the scoreboard. If by some miracle the Red Sox stay in the game, they can plug in Tillman in the 4th or 5th inning (hopefully after wrecking the Rays lineup with platoonery).

No way would they do that; that would be considered messing with Tillman's head, and managers are too conservative for that, particularly in a non-must-win game.

74. The Id of SugarBear Blanks

posted on October 03, 2012 at 01:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I'd go all in if I were the O's. Even if you're resigned to playing the WC game, home field advantage would be a big deal and right now they're tied with Oakland/Texas.

I'd only go all-in if there was some hope that winning the division would mean Keith Law would think we're good.

75. Athletic Supporter gangnam style posted on October 03, 2012 at 01:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.

Yeah, this one.

Man, I wish I didn't have meetings today.

76. The Chronicles of Reddick posted on October 03, 2012 at 02:04 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.

Well the fact that it was the Yankees made it worse. I had one of those Wile E Coyote faces with my jaw on the floor after that game was over.

77. Toby posted on October 03, 2012 at 02:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Who should the Orioles start? I think people are over-thinking this.

Step 1: Figure out who your best pitcher is, and start him as soon as he has adequate rest.
Step 2: Do the same for your second-best pitcher, and third-best pitcher, and so on.

To do it any other way at this point of the playoffs is over-thinking it. The hope is you're going to be playing baseball for another couple of weeks. Make sure your best pitcher starts as many games during that time as he is physically capable of doing.

Otherwise you are running the risk of giving more October starts to lesser pitchers than to your best pitcher.

78. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...

That game made me question the existence of God.

If it's any consolation, AFAICT it was the biggest extra inning comeback in American League history. You have to put these sorts of things in perspective. It's not often you get to see that level of History unfold before your very own eyes.

79. spycake posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

To do it any other way at this point of the playoffs is over-thinking it. The hope is you're going to be playing baseball for another couple of weeks. Make sure your best pitcher starts as many games during that time as he is physically capable of doing.

Otherwise you are running the risk of giving more October starts to lesser pitchers than to your best pitcher.

Well, that's part of the point. The playoffs haven't started yet. They still have the option of resting/saving pitchers for the start of the playoffs later this week. The pitcher who starts today will actually have fewer starting chances in the playoffs.

80. YR Misses Reggie Bars posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...

That game made me question the existence of God.

Your theology is askew. The Almighty loves the Yankees and loves America. It's one of the biggest distinctions between Him and Satan.

81. Toby posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.

82. JJ1986 posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.

There's a very low chance (it involves the Red Sox winning) that tonight's game means anything for them.

83. The Yankee Clapper posted on October 03, 2012 at 03:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Almighty loves the Yankees and loves America. It's one of the biggest distinctions between Him and Satan.

Amen.

84. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:04 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

There's a very low chance (it involves the Red Sox winning) that tonight's game means anything for them.

Again, that's not right. If the Orioles win and the Yankees win, the Os get HFA for the play-in game.

85. spycake posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:06 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.

Red Sox jokes aside, tonight's game is not an elimination game; it likely only affects home field advantage for an elimination game Friday.

In fact, if they win and the Yankees lose, the Orioles will have to play an extra game on Thursday, which if they lose they will still have to play that elimination game Friday. So losing at least guarantees them a day of rest Thursday.

Looking at it further, the Orioles' best play might be to try to win tonight for home-field in the wild-card game and cheer for the Yankees to WIN so they get a day off on Thursday before the Friday game. (Winning the division isn't all that great because ALDS home field this year is games 3-5, right?)

86. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Looking at it further, the Orioles' best play might be to try to win tonight for home-field in the wild-card game and cheer for the Yankees to WIN so they get a day off on Thursday before the Friday game. (Winning the division isn't all that great because ALDS home field this year is games 3-5, right?)

Eh? Winning the division is all that great because losing the division means you have to win the play-in game just to get to the ALDS. There is no "Friday game" if the Orioles win the division.

87. spycake posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Eh? Winning the division is all that great because losing the division means you have to win the play-in game just to get to the ALDS. There is no "Friday game" if the Orioles win the division.

But at this point they can't win the division without a tiebreaker game on Thursday. And if they happen to lose that, then they STILL have to play the wild card game Friday, but without any rest and presumably fewer pitchers available.

88. DKDC posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The twitter says that the Rays have posted two lineups because Britton may start instead of Tillman…

89. Athletic Supporter gangnam style posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Well, this sucks.

90. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 04:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

But at this point they can't win the division without a tiebreaker game on Thursday. And if they happen to lose that, then they STILL have to play the wild card game Friday, but without any rest and presumably fewer pitchers available.

If the Orioles win and the Yankees lose, then the Orioles have to win one of the next two games to make the ALDS. if the Orioles win and the Yankees win, then the Orioles have to win one of one game to make the ALDS. Which sounds easier: winning 1 of 2, or 1 of 1?

91. spycake posted on October 03, 2012 at 05:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If the Orioles win and the Yankees lose, then the Orioles have to win one of the next two games to make the ALDS. if the Orioles win and the Yankees win, then the Orioles have to win one of one game to make the ALDS. Which sounds easier? Winning 1 of 2, or 1 of 1?

Actually, if you include the win today, it might be better represented as winning 2 of 3 played three consecutive days, versus winning 1 of 1 after an off day (although my scenario also aimed for a win tonight, meaning it could be characterized as 2 of 2 with an off day in between). And although you don't want to get caught looking ahead -- just getting to Saturday is obviously the goal -- the ALDS would likely start Saturday, right? So you could be looking at a potential four games in four days, and if you're playing all of them to win (best starters, full bullpen) it could get mighty difficult.

It's an interesting balance, to be sure. Who would be lined up to start Thursday? And if necessary, Friday? The quality and availability of starting pitchers would be a huge factor in this decision.

92. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

posted on October 03, 2012 at 05:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

WOO-HOO!!!! GIVE THAT BOY A DRUG TEST!!!!

93. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 05:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Actually, if you include the win today, it might be better represented as winning 2 of 3 played three consecutive days, versus winning 1 of 1 after an off day (although my scenario also aimed for a win tonight, meaning it could be characterized as 2 of 2 with an off day in between).

If they don't win today, then they get an off day anyway, so by definition we're assuming they win.

And although you don't want to get caught looking ahead -- just getting to Saturday is obviously the goal -- the ALDS would likely start Saturday, right? So you could be looking at a potential four games in four days, and if you're playing all of them to win (best starters, full bullpen) it could get mighty difficult.

Today's game and tomorrow's tiebreaker game (if it happens) will be with the full 40-man roster. Friday's play-in game drops to a 25-man roster, but Saturday's game is a new playoff series so they can redo their roster between Friday and Saturday. So I don't think "four games in four days" is that big a deal. (Also, Saturday's is not a must-win the way the others are.)

94. spycake posted on October 03, 2012 at 05:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

David -- I don't think we really disagree. I really just wanted to point out that the Orioles stand to get some "benefits" from a win tonight, regardless of the Yankee outcome.

It will be interesting to see how they approach tonight (and Thursday if necessary) -- do you make a struggling starter try to eat innings and conserve the bullpen, etc.?

95. David Nieporent (now, with children) posted on October 03, 2012 at 06:27 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

David -- I don't think we really disagree. I really just wanted to point out that the Orioles stand to get some "benefits" from a win tonight, regardless of the Yankee outcome.

Wait -- that was my point. So what are we arguing about?

It will be interesting to see how they approach tonight (and Thursday if necessary) -- do you make a struggling starter try to eat innings and conserve the bullpen, etc.?

Today? With a 40-man to work with? And a very deep bullpen?

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Washington Post: Tom Boswell: Yankees Are Monuments To Baseball Success

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