I had the Nats in. I most certainly did not have the Rockies in because that would be ridiculous.

So if Davey thought they were going to the playoffs the Strasburg plan looks even more foolish.

I'm genuinely surprised at the number of people here on Primer who predicted a playoff spot for the Nats. I do stand corrected. But I'll also point out that (almost) everyone was pegging them as a Second WC with presumably 85-87 wins, not the NL East champs in the ballpark of 98-100 wins. (Of course that's a bit premature, as they haven't clinched the division yet...)

Not that I'm knocking anyone. I didn't peg the Nats as NL East champs either. And I know this team as well as anyone on the site.

EDIT: Which actually makes me think...what are the things we all got wrong, in retrospect, about the Nats? (I suppose one key thing we almost all got wrong wasn't about the Nats at all but rather about the Phils.) Where has the overperformance been? Two obvious answers: Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond. Another candidate: the ridiculously good bench (Tracy, Bernadina, Lombardozzi, Moore, all of whom have been out of their minds both as pinch-hitters and as backup players).

I think one thing that surprised a number of people on BBTF was the excellence of Gio Gonzalez. I recall a lot of criticism of that deal around here, not just in terms of the amount of prospects Washington gave away, but also in terms of Gonzalez's expected performance in a ballpark that was supposedly less pitcher-friendly. To be fair the major surprise was of Gio's own doing: the sudden drop in his walk rate.

Congrats Nats and fans! I live in the area and have stayed loyal to the O's, but I'm happy for you.

EDIT: Which actually makes me think...what are the things we all got wrong, in retrospect, about the Nats?

I think it's mostly pitching. There have been a lot of overpeformers offensively (all the guys you listed and Harper), but they've been balanced out by Werth and Morse missing huge amounts of time and Ramos going out for the season. Detwiler's actually the biggest individual surprise, but more than that all five starting pitchers stayed totally healthy.

Eso:

I think you got most of it. Personally (and I say this as a Washingtonian that watches the Nats way more than I watch my actual favorite team), I didn't think the offense would be good enough, I thought the Phillies would be good enough to win the division, and I thought the Marlins would be better. So I had them at maybe 85 wins, getting the wild card, but not good enough to get to 90+.

Huh, nice catch there Joey. (You obviously remembered this from all the way back in February, which is even more amusing!) Gotta give credit to Sutcliffe, he was right and for the right reasons to boot.

Reading what Sutcliffe had to say and then reading Dial's crap is hilarious. It's like Einstein being followed by Dennis Murphy from the old "Don and Mike Show".

(I suppose one key thing we almost all got wrong wasn't about the Nats at all but rather about the Phils.)

Age. Everyone got age wrong. Even those of us who "know" that "proven veteran" is BS. Most people (including myself) knew that the Phils were aging and that the Nats were young. We all thought the Phils had one more run left in them and that the Nats were a year or so away.

Turns out being young, healthy and inexperienced is better than being old, gimpy and experienced.

EDIT: Which actually makes me think...what are the things we all got wrong, in retrospect, about the Nats?

I think most of what we got wrong was how weak everyone else in the league is. It's really a down year, it seems.

The other item: how good the defense is. I haven't looked at the metrics, which may or may not debunk this, but they turn out an above average player at every position but left. Aside from Zimmerman, none of them are ++++ defenders, but they're all solidly above average, in the upper third at their positions. Desmond is very good. Espinonsa is near gold-glove caliber. LaRoche has a decent argument for the GG. Werth can still field well. Bryce is a bit raw and makes mistakes, but can run 'em down, too. Just like the way the Rays stormed to the front by turning a horrid defense into a solid one, the Nats have done the same just by trusting some of their players and (as in the case of Desmond) playing the position more smartly.

Combine that with a pitching staff that allows fewer balls in play than most, and the runs allowed turnaround has been huge. I think they'll end up on the order of 70 or so runs better with a better offense too.

One other item: The offensive turn-around, which even mid-season has been dramatic, is an underrated/underreported story.

Basically, the Nationals had been teaching (for years) the old Minnesota Twins opposite field approach in the minors and majors. Davey had the heft to get the organization to change that and they started teaching a more power-focused approach. I keep thinking of how David Ortiz went to MVP candidate just by changing organizations and finding a new hitting approach that played to his strength. I don't think it's any accident that the younger players especially have had monster years relative to expectations.

I figured the Nats in a close 3rd, possibly contending for the second wild card. Desmond has really surprised me with the bat, and I didn't expect Harper to be such a huge contributor. Also the non-uselessness of Bernadina was not something I was expecting.

I now have tickets to game 3 of the NLDS, by the way.

Season ticket holder since day one, and paid the postseason deposit last month.

I agree with the theory that division underperformed a bit. There were pretty big expectations on the Marlins after who they bought in, and the Braves thought they had so much pitching, Medlen was going to be eased into that rotation. The Phillies top-3 SP were still excellent, and regardless of how long Howard was out, there was ok offense there it seemed.

I think the patience shown by DJ helped too, Espinosa had a long slump and wasn't benched. They let Harper and Lombardozzi get used to OF spots. Besides Desmond's power spike, Bernadina was the biggest batting surprise to me, some switch flipped in that guy where he can handle off speed stuff now, or at least foul it off. Nothing else jumps out as very flukey, except maybe a few extra hits from Moore, but he's had a lot of power in the minors the last two years so those homers are probably for real.

I had kind of given up on Detwiler, he looked like he could never get through a lineup three times, and by his own admission had lost his curveball. Didn't think Gio would have this kind of control either, but they did get somehwat lucky with the health of their BETTER pitchers. Lots of key guys missing time except LaRoche kind of sets them up to feel pretty good now about making up for Strasburg.

Another of the few Nats fans here.

One other factor: The bullpen isn't dynamite, but it's righted itself somewhat over the course of the season. Clearing Lidge and Rodriguez out of the way has been huge, and Storen is returning to form. Clippard's been shaky for awhile now, but he had a couple of great stretches. I love how Davey's used Stammen and Gorzo, turning them into 4-out relievers (and tending to save Gorzo for long relief).

And now it suddenly looks like we may well have a new secret weapon on our hands in Christian Garcia.

He's only pitched seven innings in the majors so far, but I absolutely love what I have seen to this point. Davey shouldn't be afraid to use him more frequently.

Which actually makes me think...what are the things we all got wrong, in retrospect, about the Nats?

Speaking for myself I can think of a few things the Nats have done better than I expected;

1. The health of the pitching has been a big issue. They're going to wind up with three guys making 30+ starts and 27/28 from the "4th and 5th" starters. Just about any team in baseball if their five starters in April are healthy enough and good enough to make ~145-150 starts is going to be successful.

2. They've done well to avoid the sink hole. The Red Sox have turned this into an artform in recent seasons, every year features a couple of key players going pfffft (this year there were about a dozen of them). Part of that is the Nats just have good players but part of that is going to fall to Johnson deploying guys properly, manipulating days off and just generally putting guys in a position to succeed. The ability to recognize who can and can't play is a big deal. Other than Rodriguez I don't see anyone on the Nats roster who seems like he had a ridiculously bad season from a position of dependency.

3. I never ever thought Gio Gonzalez would do this. At the time of the deal there were rumors that the Red Sox were going to trade for him and I was so glad they didn't. He walks too many people, he's a beneficiary of Oakland, he's going to leave there and suck. Yeah, score one for me.

3. I never ever thought Gio Gonzalez would do this. At the time of the deal there were rumors that the Red Sox were going to trade for him and I was so glad they didn't. He walks too many people, he's a beneficiary of Oakland, he's going to leave there and suck. Yeah, score one for me

Jose: fellow Sox fan, and I wanted Gio and Edwin Jackson. Don't worry though, I've been wrong about everything else, ever, so I'm not bragging.

Since this is also ostensibly a Reds' thread...

Congrats, Reds! Let's try winning at least 1 game in the divisional series this time around.

1. The health of the pitching has been a big issue. They're going to wind up with three guys making 30+ starts and 27/28 from the "4th and 5th" starters. Just about any team in baseball if their five starters in April are healthy enough and good enough to make ~145-150 starts is going to be successful.

Hey! Also the Reds! They've only had 6 pitchers start a game this year... and the 6th SP, Todd Redmond, only started 1 time because of a doubleheader.

Who would've thought Dusty could manage a team where the top 5 SP's made all but 1 of the starts during the year?

Were they celebrating in Montreal?

No. Montrealers forgot they even had a team.
[Edit: And beside, the organization has changed a lot. I remember being way more attentive to the Nats when Vidro, Wilkerson, Schneider and Livan were there. My interest picked up again this year because of Strasburg and Harper, but not because the team used to be in Montreal.]

No. Montrealers forgot they even had a team.
[Edit: And beside, the organization has changed a lot. I remember being way more attentive to the Nats when Vidro, Wilkerson, Schneider and Livan were there. My interest picked up again this year because of Strasburg and Harper, but not because the team used to be in Montreal.]

What's your team now?

I go to a lot of games and I'm surprised by how often I'll still see someone show up wearing an Expos cap or jersey. I have seen it probably five or six times this year alone, so there are still a few people with a connection to the Expos that still root for the team. Probably not all that many, but some.

I THINK that long time Expos fan and Primate fra paolo still roots for the team. He doesn't post here nearly as often as he used to in the past, but he'll still make an appearance in a chatter every once in a while.

Another Nats fan here. The two big things that have saved the Nats' season have been 1) the bench has been just deep & good enough (e.g. Lombardozzi, Moore, Bernadina, & getting Suzuki) to survive the injuries that hit the starting lineup, and 2) the starting rotation is the one segment of the team that avoided the injury bug.

(double post)

Esoteric is also a fan and Andy is at least something of a fan though more Yankees than Nats I think.

I think Andy is the only remaining Senators fan on BTTF, although he does appear to have transitioned to the current DC team without shedding his long time American League loyalties, as have I. The Washington, DC area is full of transplants, so it has taken some time to grow the fan base, but attendance is up more than 5,000 per game, and the long-term outlook for the franchise is excellent. A bit of playoff success could sell a lot of 2013 tickets.

The Washington, DC area is full of transplants, so it has taken some time to grow the fan base, but attendance is up more than 5,000 per game, and the long-term outlook for the franchise is excellent.

This is a huge understatement. 7 of the 10 richest counties in the US are in the DC suburbs.

With good management, Washington should be in the economic tier just below the NY/LA teams. No reason they can't end up supporting payrolls in the Red Sox/Phillies range.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss.

Another Nationals fan registering.

This is a huge understatement. 7 of the 10 richest counties in the US are in the DC suburbs.

Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, Montgomery and.......?

With good management, Washington should be in the economic tier just below the NY/LA teams. No reason they can't end up supporting payrolls in the Red Sox/Phillies range.

I kind of agree, but you also have to remember that the Nationals have a significant handicap in that they don't control their own TV rights. A big factor is going to be how much money Angelos ends up being eventually forced to give the team going forward, because he has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention whatsoever of voluntarily giving them anything close to fair market value.

This will help shake the "Natinals" label.

The cratering of Philadelphia and the toxic waste dump that Miami has become have definitely helped Washington.
But I wouldn't put TOO much credit on Washington's rise on those two failures. Washington still had to go out and win the damn games themselves.

A big factor is going to be how much money Angelos ends up being eventually forced to give the team going forward, because he has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention whatsoever of voluntarily giving them anything close to fair market value.

There have to be a few more mesothialoma cases out there for Pete to go after.

Another Nats fan here, and I was a Senators back in the day. In fact, I went to the last Senators game and the last Nationals game at RFK. Plus, I'm going tonight.

re 75/77 - Howard county maybe (it is both a DC and Baltimore suburb).

Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, Montgomery and.......?

I'm guessing Howard County is up there. Possibly Stafford Co. in Virginia as well.

Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, Montgomery and.......?

Fauquier, VA
Howard, MD

No way is Fauquier in the Top 10. Unless something insane has happened there in the last two to three years.

No way is Fauquier in the Top 10. Unless something insane has happened there in the last two to three years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/highest-income-counties/

EDIT: 11, 13, and 21 are all within driving distance, too, and Alexandria City is down at 26. Basically there's lots of money in the area.

I live two miles from Fauquier and can't believe this. It must be one really rich guy. All I see is Outbacks and various cattle.

It's probably bad form to plug this here, but screw it. It's one way to reach some Nats fans...

Now that the demons of the last partial decade have been exorcised, I put together a "Most Natinals" ballot. Which player and players best represents that dark period. If you're interested, take a look and vote...

I don't think anyone expected a 4.1 (b-ref)WAR out of Harper this year, either, which actually leads the position players (Gonzalez is 4.3). Eventually, but not as a rookie...

I always think of Nook Logan as defining the crappy Nats years.

Fauquier has a lot of old money gentry -- all those fox hunters. When you add the luxury developments for people who want 5 acre backyards ...

My inner adolescent comedian loves saying Fauquier County out loud.

It's probably bad form to plug this here, but screw it. It's one way to reach some Nats fans...

Now that the demons of the last partial decade have been exorcised, I put together a "Most Natinals" ballot. Which player and players best represents that dark period. If you're interested, take a look and vote...

C- Wiki
1b- Ward
2b - D'Angelo
3b- Casto
ss- Clayton
lf- Machowiak
cf- Milledge (slam dunk)
rf- Taveras
sp- Drese
rp- Kip

Basically there's lots of money in the area

Why don't I have any?

Chris, I'm surprised I had to write in Jesus Colome.

There were a few oversights there. Colome has the "I pray for his buttocks thing"... if you've got an amusing anecdote, that probably DQs you.

Why don't I have any?

Stop posting on the internet and get back to work!

Why don't I have any?

Stop posting on the internet and get back to work!

Damn Republicans!! Next thing you'll want me to pay child support!

EDITORS NOTE- not intended to hijack thread into political arena.

Oh too late. Andy and the gang have seen the bat signal. ABANDON THE THREAD WHILE THERE IS STILL HOPE!!!!

87 was excellent. Thanks.

!