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Maybe hanging on and reaching that 400-homer plateau will be enough to get Howard into the HOF one day
worst player ever to win multiple HR titles?
Does this mean we'll see Howard have a son who is a top hitter someday?
2 full-time seasons of his career above a 127 OPS+ and we're "Koufaxing" him?
... says the guy who doesn't specify the 94-89 edge for Revere over Howard so far.
if I want to "weasel word" Koufax, I can say, "only 4 seasons above above a 158 ERA+."
huh, that still sounds pretty impressive, which is the point. you can't put a big dent in Koufax's peak (just his prime/career: "only 6 full seasons above 105 ERA+").
it's okay if you don't like RBI, it's okay if you think chase utley is/was a better player, but that's not the same thing as ryan howard being terrible.
He's had a good career. The people to whom he's being compared here - Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, John Mayberry, Andre Thornton
Certainly not 100% but wouldn't surprise me if it's mostly.
which, firstly, is factually incorrect, since he had 3 (06/07/09).
144 games for a 1B isn't really full time is it?
Since 2000, Ryan Howard has 5 seasons with over 140 games at first base...here is the list of first baseman with more seasons with 140 games.
once you're an offense-only candidate who is slipping below a 130 OPS+, those seasons don't add a whole lot. so all he's got is a peak that isn't much of a peak, now is it?
144 games for a 1B isn't really full time is it?
And of course the article points out that "But who could have predicted that Howard’s decline would be so abrupt and precipitous? " and of course the answer is "everyone" Or at least everyone predicted he wouldn't be worth what he was being paid, and in fact wasn't worth what he was being paid even at the time of the signing on a per year basis. (and we'll ignore the PED hint that the writer threw up there)
that's not exactly fair though. howard didn't fall of a cliff because of a natural progression, he fell off a cliff because he ruptured his achilles.
Year Age Tm WAA
1963 27 LAD 7.7
1966 30 LAD 7.4
1964 28 LAD 5.2
1965 29 LAD 4.9
1961 25 LAD 3.0
1962 26 LAD 2.6
1959 23 LAD 0.6
1955 19 BRO 0.5
1957 21 BRO 0.3
1960 24 LAD -0.2
1958 22 LAD -0.4
1956 20 BRO -1.0
12 Seasons 30.7
Year Age Tm WAA
2006 26 PHI 3.1
2005 25 PHI 2.0
2009 29 PHI 1.6
2007 27 PHI 1.0
2004 24 PHI 0.1
2013 33 PHI -0.3
2008 28 PHI -0.3
2010 30 PHI -0.6
2011 31 PHI -0.8
2014 34 PHI -1.9
2012 32 PHI -2.1
11 Seasons 2.0
WAA, Koufax versus Howard:
the fact that he has been terrible was not foreseeable at the time he signed the contract.
Monday, February 14, 2011
2011 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies [...]
Even though they are probably the favorites, it’s not always sunny in Philadelphia. The Ryan Howard contract still hasn’t started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0. [...]
17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 14, 2011 at 01:20 PM (#3749773) [...]
Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31. That's about as bad a set of comparables as it is possible for a player to have. Now, this is a bit unfair, as Esasky's vertigo can hardly be figured in to the equation, Brad Hawpe still might put together a decent season soon, but ZiPS' career projection for Howard is truly terrible, and this must be the reason. Howard has put up a 140 OPS+ in 3700 AB so far in his career. In order to end his career with a 124 OPS+ in 6700 AB (with a 124 OPS+ in 550 AB this year), Howard needs to put up a 100 OPS+ over the final 2500 AB of his career. Basically, ZiPS thinks Howard's toast as a good player, starting in about 2012. [...]
27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3749870)
Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31.
His top 3 BBREF comps are Richie Sexson, David Ortiz and Wilie McCovey
Sexson was still a regular after 30- but terrible
Otiz looked to be in rapid descent but had a nice bounceback last year at age 34
McCovey's peak was 30-32
next you get McGriff and Cecil Fielder
McGriff last along time, but after 30 most years he put up a 110-120 OPS+ (and for a 1B that's just another player)
McGwire, Mo Vaughn
Thin Carlos and Tino M...
I think ZiPs is right WRT Howard [...]
37. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#3750008)
Howard's ZiPS comps are a gigantic bag of awful.
All but a couple of these guys aged worse than the Macarena.
So I take it the "limited no-trade provision" is that by 2014 no one will want his contract?
for the win 76. Davo Dozier Posted: April 26, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3514711)
Just so there's no confusion when people look at the BBTF archives 5 years from now:
This is a catastrophically bad decision by the Phils.
Typical flow of events. An essay is linked to at TSL. I read it and disagree with it. I check the authorship. JR Gamble. I say to myself, oh yeah, JR Gamble, I have never agreed with anything he has ever written. And the streak is alive for another day.
Bad value or not, it highlights the real problem. Those guys have put up 19 WAR this year while the Phils as a team have 16 WAR. They've got less than zero out of all of their cheap players (including not so cheap guys like Kendrick and Adams). What's "crippled" this team has been its inability to produce much from the farm. They have no cheap talent.
Has anyone done any "checking" on the HOF Monitor and HOF Standards to see if they still apply?
The HOF monitor needs to go. Or at least be seriously overhauled. Here's some current or recently retired guys who cleared the 100 mark with room to spare:
100 is not and has never been a "Likely HOFer", and that is more true now than ever.
But that's what I'm saying ... this isn't really the problem with this or other recent Phillies teams. They're not getting great value but not terrible by these standards. They've been spending about $140-150 M on "expensive" players and getting about 19 WAR ... there's quibbles about where the average FA values is these days but it's in the range of $6-7 M so that's not great return but it's hardly terrible. And that includes the Howard albatross.
my argument was specifically about people blaming a high priced option preventing the team from being competitive, when there is not one team in memory, which couldn't be competitive in two years with "average" competency in the front office, even with one or two massive drains on the payroll. You seem to be saying it's not the free agents that is hurting them, but their lack of getting value from their cheap players.
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