I'm surprised people still pay attention to Drudge.

Two days after Gallup found early voters favoring Romney 52-47, Pew is out with a poll tonight that shows Romney leading 50-43 among early voters. In 2008, Obama led early voters in this same poll, 53-34.

FWIW... rumor mill has it that being one of two Senators/Senate candidates... either Rick Berg (ND-SEN candidate for Johnson's open seat) or NJ-SEN Bob Menendez

Maybe. Now that I think about it, if it was Clinton, it would have warranted Drudge's Flashing Light.

Probably not Berg, he's a Republican. Menendez does seem to be a general scumbag, so it wouldn't shock me.

I hope if Obama wins the election, Joe keeps citing polls that show him behind, ad infinitum, for like five or six years.

I hope if Obama wins the election, Joe keeps citing polls that show him behind, ad infinitum, for like five or six years.

Huh. I have the link to the theme from M.A.S.H. queued up and waiting, personally.

Obama won't have really won. It would just be liberal bias misreporting a Romney victory.

No, Joe's suggesting that Obama will win:

Two days after Gallup found early voters favoring Romney 52-47, Pew is out with a poll tonight that shows Romney leading 50-43 among early voters. In 2008, Obama led early voters in this same poll, 53-34.

McCain was 19% behind in 2008 early voting, but ultimately only lost by 5.2%. Obama's only behind by 7%, so once he makes up the 13.8% he'll win by an even bigger margin than last time.

DRUDGE has an item -- "SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN . . . DEVELOPING . . . " No details yet. Probably over-hyped, but my money is on Bill Clinton.

Maybe he had sex with Hillary for the second time?

Because that would be a sex scandal that would involve BOTH Clintons.

Mike Francesa says that the hurricane has finished Romney. Because Obama is out there looking presidential and cutting checks, and Romney can't criticize him.

Thoughts? Has Nate weighed in on this?

Thoughts? Has Nate weighed in on this?

Eh, I don't think it has much of an impact. If anything, it means that Romney's lost time. It's going to be Thursday, and Romney is still behind in Ohio and barely positive at best in Florida.

The storm sucked up coverage that, in theory, Romney might have used to his advantage. Romney appears to be very risk adverse, though, so it's debatable the impact it could have possibly had.

The bottom line is that Romney has 5 days to improve his standing since he's probably behind and every day that he loses due to the storm hurts him.

Edit: It's a weird cycle, though. I wouldn't rule it out, I guess.

It's hard to imagine a storm will be what pushes any undecideds toward Obama if they weren't there already. Plus, with the exception of northern Virginia, Sandy only hit areas that were already solidly in the bag for Obama. I guess it depends on how much people in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc., are still paying attention to what Sandy did to NYC and New Jersey.

Mike Francesa says that the hurricane has finished Romney. Because Obama is out there looking presidential and cutting checks, and Romney can't criticize him.

Thoughts? Has Nate weighed in on this?

While finding myself in agreement w Francesa gives me a twitch, in a race this close Obama's handling of the 'cane's aftermath is likely to have an effect. It's going to be a lot of the news, and not just in NE blue states, for the next week. It'll be the biggest story, probably, and Obama will handle his role well, probably.

DRUDGE has an item -- "SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN . . . DEVELOPING . . . " No details yet. Probably over-hyped, but my money is on Bill Clinton.


Maybe he had sex with Hillary for the second time?

Cold. Funny, but cold.

edit: anyone know if the House does a straight up majority vote if the election goes there after an EV tie, and no electors can be bought, er, persuaded to change their votes?

Think of the leverage!

Mike Francesa says that the hurricane has finished Romney.

I'll reserve judgement until I hear further analysis from Casey Kasem, Mancow, and Eric the Actor.

. . . Menendez does seem to be a general scumbag, so it wouldn't shock me.

Menendez it is. A sex for money escapade in the Dominican Republic. The real scandal is that Menendez only gave the women $100 of the $500 he promised.

@6115: isn't, ahem, lowballing what tripped up the Secret Service awhile back? No fury like a woman stiffed, I suppose.

FTFA:

According to the translator’s summary, Menendez “was nice at first, but then later he did not seem to care about her.”

Given that the woman was aware she was being paid to have sex, this seems like an odd complaint.

The women identify Menendez from a photograph. How could that possibly be an error? Why would they lie?

As an aside, I used to moderate a thing, and the percentage of women who went bananas if you expressed any reservations whatsoever wrt a woman's testimony in a sex case was astronomical.

Nate Silver did indeed refer to the hurricane, but not yet in a meaningful way.

Perhaps the most intriguing result from this group is the poll from Google Consumer Surveys. (Yes, Google has begin to conduct surveys online.) That poll had Mr. Obama ahead by four percentage points, an improvement from a roughly 1-point deficit for Mr. Obama in their prior survey last week.

The Google survey could be an indication that the effects of the hurricane will play somewhat to Mr. Obama’s political advantage. But it will probably be Thursday or Friday, once power and some of the national tracking surveys that have been discontinued have come back online, before we can say so with much confidence.

Dick Morris on an educational rampage, explaining what's what.

Thoughts? Has Nate weighed in on this?

Stealing Dimino's analogy from Facebook:

"538 up to 79% ... In our baseball analogy Obama got the first out in the top of the 9th, but the runner on first stole second. Still clinging to a 1-run lead ..."

Agreed with Mahnken that the sac bunt is the cleaner analogy. So yesterday, Obama got the first out in the top of the ninth with the tying run advancing to 2B.

There is a new political thread for November by the way.