Giants and Tigers projected with the best records in the NL and AL.
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Because waiting years and decades to find out isn’t much fun
I don't think A-Rod's going to get anywhere close to Bonds. He has hit 30 each of the last 2 years, and has been injured this year and will be struggling to get to 20.
I see no reason not to think Pujols will easily clear 600 barring a career-altering injury.
ZIPs puts him at 95 percent and projects him over 700.
ZIPs has him at 50/50, according to the article. He has 626 at age 35, and he may be in decline, but he's also got a good 5 year left in the league at least, unless he gets badly, badly injured. I don't think he'll make it, but he will definitely be "anywhere close" to Bonds if he feels like sticking around long enough to get there.
Stanton has 48 with the rest of this season to play
I don't think A-Rod's going to get anywhere close to Bonds. He has hit 30 each of the last 2 years, and has been injured this year and will be struggling to get to 20. We'll give him a generous pace going forward of 28/season, which would get him there in the last half of his age 40 season. Of course this assumes that he is still in the league, league offensive levels don't keep dropping, he doesn't get injured (much) again, and doesn't suffer further losses in power as he ages. I don't think he'll do it.
After 32, ZiPS gives Foxx 3547 AB, 134 HR, 451 RBI, and a 281/371/475 average, which puts him at 634 home runs.
Fwiw, of Roddy's most similars at BBRef, only Aaron got more than 130 HRs from age 36 on. Mays got 118 and wasn't completely useless his final season.
But both of these guys were much better hitters at comparative ages than A-Rod is now. Aaron had a 194 OPS+ at age 37, and averaged around 155 for the previous 4 years (Mays almost as good), while A-Rod has now dropped below 130 for '10/'11. If he keeps bleeding ability at a rate of -5 to -10 per year, he'll be at replacement level (for the DH slot) by age 40, and if he hits the wall before then, all bets are off-unlike Jeter I doubt the Yankees will keep sticking him out there.
I had that problem with the Bobbys Jones. Not only did they have the same name, not only were they teammates at one point, but they were both slightly worse than league average right-handed National League starting pitchers.
Were there three of them? I remember the righty that pitched for the Mets and the lefty that bounced around a bit, was there a third one? MLBPA needs to be like the Actors Union and forbid the same names.
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