I doubt that anybody else in baseball would (or even could) possibly sign him to a better deal than what he still has left remaining, and after the A-Rod screwup I doubt the Yankees would be dumb enough to make the same mistake again and offer him a better deal than what they have now. It would be foolish of him to opt out, and I'll be pretty surprised if he does.

I disagree with every sentence of that post. Other teams can and would offer better deals than 4 years at $23 million per. I think the Yankees will offer him a better deal. I think it is smart to opt out, and I would not be surprised at all if he does.

I would guess the only way he doesn't opt-out is if the Yankees sweeten his deal before the deadline or some tendons snap in his pitching arm in the next 6 weeks.

Hmmm. Which teams do you think would offer Sabathia a better deal? Boston? Cubs?

I haven't thought about each of these teams in depth, but possibilities are Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, Rockies

Nationals.

Ummm, no. After the Werth debacle it'll be a while before the Nationals offer a big stupid contract to someone on the wrong side of 30 again.

The Cubs and Tigers are 100M+ payroll clubs with tons of money coming off the books and room in the rotation. The Blue Jays, Angels, Nationals and Rangers are all possible destinations. The Mets are still looking at a $100M+ payroll. The Brewers, if they lose Fielder.

The most likely outcome is that CC re-signs for a larger contract / contract extension before really testing the market. My guess has been something like 7/180.

If CC were actually available for 4/92 - he won't be - Theo would surely make the offer.

Well, I think the fact that there are a lot of teams that theoretically could do it doesn't mean they will, or, of course, that Sabathia would sign there in any case. I can't picture him in Milwaukee, Detroit, or Colorado even if they made the offer. Texas--maybe. Ryan might see him as a horse they need, the missing piece etc. Washington or the Mets, no. Dodgers under a new superrich owner--sure.

But basically, I think he will be with the Yankees or the Red Sox, and I really don't think Epstein would go anything like 7/190 for a pitcher.

Ask yourself this: if there were no contract to opt out of, and he signed somewhere this winter as a FA for 4/$92M, would that look like a win for the team or for him? I think most people would say the team wins that one.

He's 31 and a legitimate #1, somewhere in the list of the top 10 starters in baseball right now. Cliff Lee is almost 2 years older, with a spottier track record, and he got 5/$120M plus an option last offseason. Sabathia should be looking at that as a minimum starting point, and that's already better than 4/$92M.

I don't think Epstein would go anything 7/190 for a pitcher.

I don't think he would offer CC that much either, but I think he would offer something better than 4/92

I think the outcomes in order of likelihood are something like:

-CC and the Yanks agree on an extension before he has to excercise his out clause, for more years and slightly more money per
-the same, but for more years at the same rate
-CC opts out, and the Yanks sign him for more years and money
-CC opts out, and someone else signs him for more years and money
-CC opts out, and someone else signs him for more years and less money
-CC doesn't opt out

I don't think he would offer CC that much either, but I think he would offer something better than 4/92

I agree there.

@ 8

I tend to think he will opt out. Just not sure that a huge number of teams will throw their hats in if/when he does.

Well, I think the fact that there are a lot of teams that theoretically could do it doesn't mean they will, or, of course, that Sabathia would sign there in any case. I can't picture him in Milwaukee, Detroit, or Colorado even if they made the offer. Texas--maybe. Ryan might see him as a horse they need, the missing piece etc. Washington or the Mets, no. Dodgers under a new superrich owner--sure.

But basically, I think he will be with the Yankees or the Red Sox, and I really don't think Epstein would go anything like 7/190 for a pitcher.

This is a different question, though. Where CC will end up and who could or will bid for CC's services are distinct questions. I think it's pretty clear that CC will re-sign in New York. What he needs from those other clubs is just the impression that they could offer him a new deal - that's all he needs to get the Yankees to make the offer.

If the Yankees were, for some ridiculous reason, to hold to a hard line of "we won't negotiate", then CC would sign somewhere else, and I don't see why he'd have to sign with Boston in that scenario. The reason he will sign with New York is that the Yankees will negotiate, and they will make a fully competitive offer.

I tend to think he will opt out. Just not sure that a huge number of teams will throw their hats in if/when he does.

But the reason those clubs won't compete is because they assume the Yankees will make a competitive offer, thus guaranteeing CC the big new contract he wants. Very few clubs want to compete with the Yankees for a free agent when the Yankees really want a player. If the Yankees were to hold a hard line and not commit to offering CC the sort of big contract he wants, all those other clubs would consider getting into the bidding in earnest.

CC and the Yanks agree on an extension before he has to excercise his out clause, for more years and slightly more money per

This.

I think the Yanks add another 3-years, at ~$25-28M per, before he opts out.

Cliff Lee is almost 2 years older, with a spottier track record, and he got 5/$120M plus an option last offseason.

And reportedly had not just one, but two better offers.

But anyway, what team can afford to lose their best pitcher? Assuming that we aren't talking about a team that doesn't have any good ones.

Anyone see the Costas interview with Mo? Pretty good stuff. Mo revealed that his last dream in baseball is to play centerfield for at least one inning. If next year is his last, you know Girardi has to make this happen!

Another way of putting it. The Red Sox aren't going to outbid the Yankees for CC's services. I think no one will outbid the Yankees for CC. But if the Yankees were to refuse to bid on CC, lots of other clubs would get involved.

If the Yankees bid competitively for CC, they'll re-sign him.
If the Yankees don't bid competitively for CC, some other club, probably not the Red Sox, will sign him.

The Yankees don't even have a clear #2 pitcher behind CC that they can really rely on, let alone someone waiting to be the new "ace". I don't see how they cannot re-sign him. As a NYY fan, that's fine with me, even though the later years of the new contract will assuredly be a massive overpay. I know pitchers are always at risk of that sudden injury that ends their excellence, or turns them into constant DL visitors, or just ends their careers, but given CC's mechanics and track record of durability I think he's as good a risk as any pitcher to remain effective (league-average or better) into his late 30s.

Do we have any actual evidence that fat pitchers are at a higher risk of breaking down in some way than other pitchers?

Also remember here that given the existing option is 4/$92, an offer like 6/$120 beats that even if it is lower AAV. Sabathia will easily get an offer that good. The Yanks will probably extend him before he opts out but, if not, CC will opt out.

Do we have any actual evidence that fat pitchers are at a higher risk of breaking down in some way than other pitchers?

Actually, I recall seeing evidence of a slight bias the other way. Fat pitchers are slightly more durable.

Do we have any actual evidence that fat pitchers are at a higher risk of breaking down in some way than other pitchers?

I'm not sure what that evidence would look like, since we don't have any body fat % measure, or really very accurate weights (or heights!) for most players. Even if we did have accurate BMI, BMI for athletes probably doesn't measure fatness as well as for regular people. Players' bodyfat % certainly change over the course of their career. I think the theory is that fat guys put more stress on their frames (particularly knees) with all that bulk, and fat guys are probably poorly conditioned, and poorly conditioned guys are probably more likely to suffer injuries. I'd say it's maybe safer to assume that fat pitchers might be at higher risk for injury until shown otherwise, but the effect isn't so strong that it's a big deal.

Actually, I recall seeing evidence of a slight bias the other way. Fat pitchers are slightly more durable.

Mickey Lolich
Gaylord Perry
Wilbur Wood
David Wells
Sid Fernandez

Schilling and Clemens weren't fat, but nor were they svelte.

I'm going to go against the consensus here and say that CC actually opts out. I think he's going to ask for the moon and the Yankees are not going to give it until they see that someone else will give him most of the moon. So my call:

--CC opts out.
--He gets some offers like Lee's.
--Yankees re-sign him for 6/140 with an option.

Looking at the threads today, it seems like there's a good chance that all of Sabathia, Pujols, Fielder, and Reyes will be free agents this offseason. Would that be the best free agent market ever?

Also remember here that given the existing option is 4/$92, an offer like 6/$120 beats that even if it is lower AAV. Sabathia will easily get an offer that good. The Yanks will probably extend him before he opts out but, if not, CC will opt out.

And the other issue is that CC has so much leverage versus the Yankees, that it doesn't matter if he can't find a better deal. He could tell them that he'll sign for 5/$100MM with the team of his choice if they don't pony up for, say, 7/$192MM. The Yankees have boatloads of cash, very little in the way of top end starting pitching talent, and would probably have to trade the farm to get another ace, who probably would not be as good as CC. Is there any reason for them to call his bluff?

I looked at relative weight and BMI in TFA!

Would that be the best free agent market ever?

Bonds and Maddux in their primes (or so we thought for Bonds at the time) were in the 1992 class. Looking it up, you also had Doug Drabek coming off four seasons of top 5 in IP, three of them in the top 10 in ERA and David Cone off of five straight seasons in the top 4 in strikeouts. 32yo Kirby Puckett and 34yo Wade Boggs, each coming off 8 straight All-Star appearances (though Boggs's last one was undeserved). Paul Molitor was about to have two seasons over .900 OPS. John Smiley in his prime was probably better than any non-CC pitcher in this year's class, and Jimmy Key may also have been. Tom Henke had put up a 180 ERA+ or better in five of the last six years.

I looked at relative weight and BMI in TFA!

A lot of guys don't have Insider. I do, though, and I did read TFA and should have mentioned this.

There was an offseason in which Clemens, Maddux, Bonds and Manny Ramirez were free agents.

Wouldn't it be a really good move for the Red Sox? I have no idea if they can afford it or not, but it seems like an overpay would effectively make them the best team in the AL for the next 3 or 4 seasons, or as long as CC holds up. The Yanks, from what I read, have essentially no top line MLB ready pitching and little in the pipeline. Sure, they have tons of money, but can they sign the next 5 top flight free agent pitchers?

Theo should offer 8/200. Either he takes the Yanks only reliable starter or he makes them pay through the nose for it.

Would that be the best free agent market ever?

2000/2001 had 3 or 4 Hall of Famers with Mussina, Manny and A-Rod plus Ichiro Suzuki (I don't remember how it worked with him if he was posted or what) plus guys like Mike Hampton and Charles Johnson.

He's exactly what the Royals need. I see no way he ends up in KC, though.

Adding to the "best free agent class ever" question - Jon Papelbon will also be looking for a new contract. Not including Mariano (who we all assumed he was returning to the Yankees), who was the last elite or near-elite closer to hit the open market?

Also, Tom Seaver had a similar body to Roger Clemens, didn't he? He had a very long career.

A lot of guys don't have Insider. I do, though, and I did read TFA and should have mentioned this.

Yay, someone noticed it!

who was the last elite or near-elite closer to hit the open market?

Wasn't K-Rod a free agent the offseason after he set the saves record (yes, I realize saves are an overrated stat)?

who was the last elite or near-elite closer to hit the open market?

Wasn't K-Rod a free agent the offseason after he set the saves record

Indeed he was. Way back in the winter of 2008.

who was the last elite or near-elite closer to hit the open market?

Does Billy Wagner count? Or is he disqualified for this exercise, having thrown only 15 innings in his walk year?

Edit: Plus he was old, and wasn't really looking for a huge contract. I guess he doesn't count.

Had a buddy saying the Phils should aim for CC if he opts out - I thought it was crazy, then suddenly decided I can no longer rule out the utterly bizarre after the whole Cliff Lee signing.

There's a real chance that he doesn't stay a Yankee. It may not be that large a chance, but a rival team could really hurt the Yankees by taking away their ace.

There's a real chance that he doesn't stay a Yankee. It may not be that large a chance, but a rival team could really hurt the Yankees by taking away their ace.

I think there's a larger chance that Derek Jeter isn't a Yankee next year.

I thought it was obvious that CC would either opt out and hit the market, or sign an improved deal with the Yankees first. Surprised that anyone thinks otherwise.

Possibly the most durable pitcher in baseball (Halladay more CG, but on fewer pitches), No. 1 market in the sport, and they still haven't figured out who pitches Game 2 in the postseason.

Failure is not an option here for the Yankees. Those club seats and luxury suites don't sell themselves, and some multi-year options from the original deals for both will start expiring. If you can't tell a high-end customer who will pitch opening day next season, you may have some unhappy re-up negotiations.

I thought it was obvious that CC would either opt out and hit the market, or sign an improved deal with the Yankees first. Surprised that anyone thinks otherwise.

Yeah, well, that's Joey for you.