Messed up the tags. What is the correct <bq> tag now?

blockquote instead of bq

I think Sickels does the best job. Looks like a solid list.

Is it just me or are there are dearth of 1B on prospect lists? Has that always been the case or have scout-types focused more on athleticism or are we just at a dry spell for good 1B prospects?

Dry spell. A few years ago, the top 100s were swimming in 1B.

link

I think it's always kinda been this way, with players getting moved to 1B as their progression with the bat outpaces their defense. Delgado was a catcher in the minors, McGwire, Giambi, Pujols, and Teixeira all played third. Those are just the ones I remembered off the top of my head.

Hosmer and Freeman graduated at a very young age. Montero might be a 1B by now if he'd come up with a different team.

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Thanks and thanks to whoever fixed it.

I think Sickels does the best job. Looks like a solid list.

I agree. I also like the "letter grade" system. Seems more consistent year to year than the "Team X top 10".

We really shouldn't care if an A- is 13 or 19, or a B+ 54 or 71.

Is it just me or are there are dearth of 1B on prospect lists? Has that always been the case or have scout-types focused more on athleticism or are we just at a dry spell for good 1B prospects?

Dry spell. A few years ago, the top 100s were swimming in 1B.

How much of that is just a change in the way the game is being played? Ten years ago everyone was looking for the big sluggers and now the speed and defense player is being valued more highly. Are we truly in a dry spell or are sluggers who might've been 60-70 on the prospect lists of 2002 being shunted aside for a similarly abled but differently styled player?

Idea for the day:

"Sickels and Hammer"

John Sickels writes up his prospect reports in rap format, to be performed and recorded onto MP3s by MC Hammer. Sell them on Itunes for 99 cents each.

*surfs over to Kickstarter*

are sluggers who might've been 60-70 on the prospect lists of 2002 being shunted aside for a similarly abled but differently styled player?

The only guy I can think of who is like that is Matt Adams and Sickles lists him.

So are Harper, Moore and Trout all worth > $100 million for the next 6 years since they are above Yu?

I guess the hitters will they get paid ~$50 million or so in the finals years of their arb and I forget what Moore got but still thats kinda crazy.

So are Harper, Moore and Trout all worth > $100 million for the next 6 years since they are above Yu?

Worth? On a FA basis?

If you assume the usual $5M/WAR FA figure, $100M is 20 WAR, or 3.3 WAR per season. Seems reasonable for the absolute best prospects.

Still a lot of risk their, especially for a pitcher. Even a guy like Harper or Trout could give you 10 or 40.

So are Harper, Moore and Trout all worth > $100 million for the next 6 years since they are above Yu?

I guess the hitters will they get paid ~$50 million or so in the finals years of their arb and I forget what Moore got but still thats kinda crazy.

That's an interesting question, but I think you are misinterpreting the list a little. If you want to look at 6-year chunks, the rankings are not supposed to necessarily indicate the next six years, whereas Darvish's contract does cover that time frame. I.E. the list might be predicting that Harper's age 25-30 seasons will be worth the same or more than those of Darvish. Or the list might be suggesting that the Rangers paid too much.

#13 I guess that just reflects exactly how hard it is to define these prospect lists. From a team perspective the first 6 years of control are much more important than what the guy does after that unless they sign a long term contract. Maybe the prospect guys should just make a list and try to make valuations of the first 6 years of service but that would probably just be too much detail.

From 1901-2011, there are 20 1st basemen (50% games played at 1B) with 50 career WAR. The positions at which they started:

McGwire 3B
Palmeiro OF
Foxx C
McCovey 1B
Murray 1B
McGriff 1B
Gehrig 1B
Bagwell 3B
Pujols 3B
Giambi 3B
Perez 3B
Cash OF
Mize OF
Helton 1B
Greenberg 1B
W Clark 1B
Olerud 1B (+P)
Hernandez 1B
Terry P
Sisler 1B

Missing because of all his time at DH is Jim Thome, who started at 3rd. Plus I'll throw in Carlos Delgado (C), who I was surprised to see only had 44 WAR.

So of the 22, the breakdown is:
True 1B: 10
3B: 6
OF: 3
C: 2
P: 1

So if you don't think this list has enough 1B, then look for the larger/poorest defenders of the 1B and OF.

Well, the main thing of course is that the Rangers didn't get to choose among Darvish, Harper, Moore and Trout. Sure, if they paid $100 M for Darvish when they could have paid $50 M for Harper, then there's a debate.

As to Darvish at #4 -- not sure exactly what Sickels is "projecting" but if he's looking long-term then, due strictly to age, Darvish is disadvantaged in terms of likely career production relative to those top 3 guys. One could think that Darvish is as good as Moore, even over the next 4-5 years, but Moore's got 3 years on him and so has better career potential.

But my instincts (and it's purely instincts) are betting on Trout.

And I still say Jurickson Profar sounds like a character from a sci-fi novel.

EDIT: I may be misremembering, but wasn't Sickels the one who didn't count Darvish in ranking the ML systems (and so Texas came #2)?

McCovey 1B

but played quite a bit of LF ages 24-26 ... which must have been entertaining.

Some of those 3B and OF should be "3B" and "OF" not just because they stunk at fielding but also because 1B was blocked when they came to the majors. At 22 in AAA, Palmeiro split time 1B/OF and, by my memory, when he came up everybody said he'd be a 1B eventually. But the Cubs had Durham at 1B then (still solid) and then Grace came along and it made more sense to have Grace at 1B and Palmeiro in the OF. The second he got to Texas, he was a 1B.

Cash is "cheating" even more. He played OF only in his first "season" but that was just 13 games overall and 4 in the field (and 8 PA -- Cash as pinch-runner! :-) He was at 1B thereafter except for 7 games 2-3 years later. Does look like he might have been an OF in the minors though.

Actually I guess the "3B" were "3B" only due to crapping fielding. I think they all did play 3B in the minors as their main position.

And I'm glad to see Brett Jackson ranked pretty high. Not that it guarantees anything. Between Corey Patterson (Cub) and Austin Jackson (same last name), I can't shake the feeling he's gonna flame out, so it's nice to be reassured a bit.

I can't shake the feeling he's gonna flame out

He does strike out a lot.

look for the larger/poorest defenders of the 1B and OF

Miguel Sano is likely to spend as much time at 3B as Miguel Cabrera did

Cheslor Cuthbert seems like a guy that will move over to 1B eventually, but the early reports have been pretty good about his defense.

Miguel Sano is likely to spend as much time at 3B as Miguel Cabrera did

So, the next 9 years then?

Norm Cash is only listed in the outfield during his minor league seasons (at least the ones at B-R). Palmeiro had just 9 games at 1B and 247 in the outfield in the minors. I'd say both would've been listed as outfielders if this list was being done back then.

but played quite a bit of LF ages 24-26 ... which must have been entertaining.

In a Greg Luzinski sort of way.

I find John Sickels lack of faith in Tyler Pastornicky...disturbing.