Whether you want to consider 194 a fluke (assuming he maintains it) for a true 155 hitter is up to you.

How many standard deviations from "true talent" to be considered a fluke?

McCutch is turning 24.7% of his flyballs into HR this year after the past three seasons of 12.2, 8.7 and 8.8.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9847&position=OF

FWIW, I enjoy Dave Cameron's monday appearances on Fangraphs' Podcasts.

Barry's (#52): Yes, but that doesn't tell us anything we don't know already. We know McCutchen is hitting home runs significantly more frequently than he used to. What we don't know is if it's a fluke or not; 24.7% isn't out of line for elite home run hitters.

McCutchen is awesome. One sort of worries about injury risk though, it seems like a lot of these "small", wiry, wristy guys who generate a ton of whippy bat speed get ligament wear and tear injuries and then it's suddenly over. I hope McCutchen avoids.

I remember the "Hank Aaron wrists" thing was said about Soriano a lot.

He definitely had the wrists. Just not the faintest clue of where the strike zone was.

Josh Reddick is rail thin and is basically hitting for the same power as McCutchen this year.

Reddick's power reminds me more of Ken Griffey Jr's. He doesn't have that crazy wrist action to generate power, instead it comes from his lower body and a perfect weight shift.

Trying to come up with a comp for Reddick's power and swing who isn't a no-doubter Hall of Famer... um... ah, screw it. Josh Reddick is exactly the same player, hell, exactly the same person down to the cellular level, as Ken Griffey Jr.

Mays at age 23; it doesn't seem like he weighed 170.

Looks about right to me.

Trying to come up with a comp for Reddick's power and swing who isn't a no-doubter Hall of Famer

A less-violent David Justice?

And there's nothing wrong with preferring Trout, but when it's based on literally two or three weeks of divergent performance between the two players that doesn't really strike me as very thorough analysis.

Three weeks ago, Trout was hitting .339/.395/.592, while Harper was hitting .274/.348/.471, with Trout also having big edges in speed and defense. Yes, Harper is a year younger, but three weeks ago, Trout was obviously the better player.

Three weeks ago, Trout was hitting .339/.395/.592, while Harper was hitting .274/.348/.471, with Trout also having big edges in speed and defense. Yes, Harper is a year younger, but three weeks ago, Trout was obviously the better player.

Not sure if you RTFA, but I believe the poster was referring to the author's claim that 2 weeks ago the author had Harper ahead of Trout on this list.

Maybe. But "fluke" connotes something way out of line with what he is capable of. Truly great players have great years, year after year, with some years far more outstanding than others. I don't think of those as "flukes", so much as I think of them as being at the far edge of their abilities.

Davey Johnson hitting 42 homers feels like a fluke. Mickey Mantle winning the triple crown does not, even though he obviously did not win it every year. That is the difference for me.

What he said.

Jose Bautista---6'0, 190. You only require timing and/or great bat speed that us mere mortals can only dream about.

Mays at age 23; it doesn't seem like he weighed 170.

I clock in at 5'9" and waver b/w about 160 and 165, and I've still got a bit of chunk to my funk. An inch taller, ten pounds heavier, not an ounce of fat? Mays is probably what that looks like.

If you wanna see a skinny slugger (well, aside from Soriano), there's always Teddy Ballgame. He was a good piece taller than these guys, but he wasn't cut like them, either, at least not when he was young. But Christ, look at those forearms. It's like he's got steel cables in there.