Yes, because Niese is controlled through 2017 on a reasonable deal, and Wheeler is far more valuable than Davis. I don't see why 2013 should matter, I don't see the Royals being big contenders this upcoming year. I'm looking at 2014-2016.

FWIW, Dayton at his presser says Wade Davis is in the rotation. The Royals beat writers also tweeted that Luke Hochevar is a "lock" for the rotation. So right now Bruce Chen looks like the odd man out.

FWIW, Dayton at his presser says Wade Davis is in the rotation. The Royals beat writers also tweeted that Luke Hochevar is a "lock" for the rotation. So right now Bruce Chen looks like the odd man out.

Why won't they just cut Hochevar? They can still save 75% of his salary.

Why won't they just cut Hochevar?

Because they aren't very good at evaluating talent, and they think he's a good pitcher.

They've got huge holes at 2B, RF, and probably CF, and only hope at 1B and 3B. The only guys they can count on are Perez, Butler and Gordon.

Dayton Moore would disagree with almost all of this. To me, this seems to be the more interesting part about the trade. Moore seems to be convinced that the only real hole the team had was in the starting pitching.

I don't believe he is terribly high on Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson is just a 5th outfielder. So I think Moore would acknowledge that CF needs an upgrade. But that's probably it. His love for French has been documented repeatedly and Chris Getz is viewed as a very good defensive second baseman that was showing some real pop with the bat before he suffered the season ending injury. (Stats don't show this pop, but the team mentioned it a few times in Spring Training and later on in the season.)

I'm not sure why you'd give up on Hosmer or Moustakas considering their prospect status but it seems to be a given that each is going to take a huge step forward in 2013.

(And personally I'd include Perez in the list of question marks for 2013; he's done extremely well in his 115 MLB sample but he didn't have the minor league track record to suggest what he's done thus far is real.)

Dayton Moore would disagree with almost all of this. To me, this seems to be the more interesting part about the trade. Moore seems to be convinced that the only real hole the team had was in the starting pitching.

Yes, he's very bad at his job.

I'm not sure why you'd give up on Hosmer or Moustakas considering their prospect status but it seems to be a given that each is going to take a huge step forward in 2013.

How is it a given? They could both easily continue to flail.

What does it take for the Royals to win this trade? If they win the World Series next year? If none of the prospects pan out?

How is it a given? They could both easily continue to flail.

From Moore's perspective ...

Is James Shields better than Doug Fister? He throws a few more innings, but his results aren't as good. Dombrowski got Fister for Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, and Fernando Martinez. Shields has two years to go before FA, Fister's not even arb-eligible until 2013.

Shields is very good, and will help KC, and maybe Davis will too. But this is a crazy overpay, made "necessary" by Moore and his staff's complete inability to develop or acquire starting pitching.

made "necessary" by Moore and his staff's inability to develop or acquire starting pitching at all.

C'mon, he's only been on the job for seven years!

Is James Shields better than Doug Fister? He throws a few more innings, but his results aren't as good. Dombrowski got Fister for Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, and Fernando Martinez. Shields has two years to go before FA, Fister's not even arb-eligible until 2013.

That was also at a point where Fister's run of success was a couple of months and many people thought his fringy fastball wouldn't play outside of Safeco. He has since added velocity and maintained performance in a more normal park.

He still is not as healthy/durable as Shields, and the Shields track record delivers more predictability than you got with Fister at that time.

What does it take for the Royals to win this trade? If they win the World Series next year? If none of the prospects pan out?

A playoff berth in 2013-14, with Shields/Davis being positive contributors. Unless Myers turns into Ryan Braun, then, yeah a World Series in '13 or '14.

I'm not sure why you'd give up on Hosmer or Moustakas considering their prospect status but it seems to be a given that each is going to take a huge step forward in 2013.

I'm not giving up on Hosmer or Moose, but they (esp. Hosmer) were so bad last year, it is foolish to assume they will be even average this year. They HAVE to play. I want them to play and to make them fail or succeed. Not giving up at all. But not counting on much for 2013.

Right now, they are counting on contending based on magical bounceback years from Santana, Hosmer, and Francoeur, "big leap" from Moustakas, sustained high performance from Perez, Escobar, and Royals-version Guthrie, a successful return to the rotation for Davis, and no regression from Butler or Gordon or Shields.

I'd be happy if it happened, but very, very surprised.

Probably b/c they're both under team control for a long time.

But if that is your plan, then it truly doesn't make any sense to trade Myers in the first place.

Kansas City's plan, clearly, is to compete in 2013. They won 72 games a year ago. The Royals were 42-21 when scoring 5 or more runs in a game, and while that may seem like a good record, it's not - a typical ML team would have gone 50-13 over 63 games when scoring 5 or more runs. That's not to say that the offense doesn't have problems - 63 games of five or more runs is less than the ML average of 67.5, to be sure, and it's not as though the Royals play in an extreme pitcher's park or anything. But it does point to the thought that the pitching is the most obvious weakness on the team, and getting someone like Shields to front your rotation offers the biggest potential for immediate improvement in that regard. The idea that bounces from Hosmer and Moustakas and having a full season from Perez might be enough to make the offense semi-respectable isn't that far-fetched, and over the short term it's probably more likely than to expect quality starting performances from guys coming off injuries.

Glass has pretty clearly put Moore in a nearly impossible position. I absolutely agree that the odds of pulling this off are long. But I think that if you look at what Moore has done given the position that Glass has put him into, I think he's done as good a job as you might expect.

-- MWE

160 - but this proves my point. Because Moore has been completely unable to make moves like the Fister trade, he's ended up paying a premium for "proven starting pitching". If he could have developed or acquired a couple of these guys, and he's certainly had the time, they wouldn't have traded one of baseball's best prospects, and more, for a #2 starter, or thrown tons of cash at Jeremy Guthrie. If he had gotten a mid-rotation guy back in the Melky trade, to name one example, they wouldn't be in this situation.

But if that is your plan, then it truly doesn't make any sense to trade Myers in the first place.

Kansas City's plan, clearly, is to compete in 2013. They won 72 games a year ago. The Royals were 42-21 when scoring 5 or more runs in a game, and while that may seem like a good record, it's not - a typical ML team would have gone 50-13 over 63 games when scoring 5 or more runs. That's not to say that the offense doesn't have problems - 63 games of five or more runs is less than the ML average of 67.5, to be sure, and it's not as though the Royals play in an extreme pitcher's park or anything. But it does point to the thought that the pitching is the most obvious weakness on the team, and getting someone like Shields to front your rotation offers the biggest potential for immediate improvement in that regard. The idea that bounces from Hosmer and Moustakas and having a full season from Perez might be enough to make the offense semi-respectable isn't that far-fetched, and over the short term it's probably more likely than to expect quality starting performances from guys coming off injuries.

Glass has pretty clear put Moore in a nearly impossible position. I absolutely agree that the odds of pulling this off are long. But I think that if you look at what Moore has done given the position that Glass has put him into, I think he's done as good a job as you might expect.

-- MWE

Agreed, I'd have kept Myers.

But, just b/c Glass threatens Moore's job doesn't mean he has to sell the farm for the short term. He can take the principled road, and do what's best for the org., damn the consequences. He can always get a job as farm director somewhere.

don't know if it's only sub only or not, but BA talked to 6 scouts, none of whom thought KC got reamed (many in fact like like the deal for them).

Glass has pretty clearly put Moore in a nearly impossible position.

No, Moore has put Moore in a nearly impossible position by not building a more competitive club by now.

He can take the principled road, and do what's best for the org., damn the consequences.

Depends on how you define "best for the organization". Is it best for the organization to admit that your five-year plan is still a couple of years away from being successful more than five years later and continue to build for the long-term with little prospect of near-term success? Or is it best for the organization to admit that your boss maybe has a point and that you should go all in on 2013?

To me it's easier to imagine a scenario in which the Royals, with the moves that they've made, being competitive in 2013 than to imagine a scenario in which they keep building for the future, make none of these moves, and become competitive 2-3 years down the road. I don't see enough of the pitching talent developing quickly enough to become ready before the current crop of hitters departs for greener pastures.

-- MWE

I don't think it's a good trade for the Royals, but their division is prime for them to take a shot right now. They may now be the second best team in the AL Central, and that gives them a puncher's chance.

Tampa Bay just traded two guys whose first names are the same as the last names if the best players on the Miami heat. Spooky?

Moore has put Moore in a nearly impossible position by not building a more competitive club by now.

Of their four best pitching prospects entering 2013, two have been injured, and one has forgotten how to throw strikes; the fourth was just traded. That happens with pitchers, but things would be looking a lot better otherwise.

I'm not trying to be an apologist for Moore, mind you; the Royals' depth is clearly a problem, since you can't really expect everyone on who you are depending to pan out, and the failure to develop even one useful starter from the system is disturbing. All I'm saying is that he's been put into a position now that is largely but not entirely of his own making, in a market and with an owner that have run out of patience, and he's trying to make the best of it; to pretend that he still has options otherwise is to ignore that reality.

I think Sam Mellinger's take on the trade covers it pretty well.

-- MWE

I'm not trying to be an apologist for Moore, mind you; the Royals' depth is clearly a problem, since you can't really expect everyone on who you are depending to pan out, and the failure to develop even one useful starter from the system is disturbing. All I'm saying is that he's been put into a position now that is largely but not entirely of his own making, in a market and with an owner that have run out of patience, and he's trying to make the best of it; to pretend that he still has options otherwise is to ignore that reality.

He could trade for/sign SP w/o giving up his best prospect.

The Royals need an offensive star to build around. They still think Hosmer or Moose will be that guy.

They have one. Billy Butler hit .313/.373/.510 (140 OPS+) last year. He turns 27 in April.

I think the Royals drafted pitchers pretty well between 2007-2009: Duffy, Montgomery, Lamb, Melville and Dwyer were all seen as good picks at the time. They made a bad pick taking Colon in 2010, not only were there pitchers on the board, but the pitchers were better prospects. In 2011, they watched 4 stud pitchers go off the board right before they picked and it probably was best to take a position player.

All I'm saying is that he's been put into a position now that is largely but not entirely of his own making

He's been in charge for 6 full seasons and the best team he's put on the field went 75-87. That's on Moore.

I don't see enough of the pitching talent developing quickly enough to become ready before the current crop of hitters departs for greener pastures.

I don't get this.

Butler is controlled through '15, Gordon is controlled through '16, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, Escobar and Cain through '17.

You're telling me there's no was to assemble an acceptable rotation by 2014 or even 2015 without trading Myers?

The link in 171 is good reading.

The Royals still have a good farm system. Internally, they view Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer as better pitching prospects than Odorizzi. And as several scouts around the sport have observed in recent weeks, Myers and Odorizzi will have to make multiple All-Star Games to accumulate more trade value than they have right now.

True, as soon as someone goes from being a prospect to a major leaguer, suddenly he has to prove himself again.

Myers may be their best homegrown position player since Carlos Beltran, and Shields may be Paul Byrd.

Yeah, they did trade for Paul Byrd, didn't they! Also at age 31. Although he looked about 41 at the time. And he was quite good for the team, in a futile effort.g

And he was quite good for the team, in a futile effort.

Which seems like a reasonable expectation for Shields as well.

And he was quite good for the team, in a futile effort.

Which seems like a reasonable expectation for Shields as well.

The drive for 75 is alive!

Why won't they just cut Hochevar?

There is the western gate, Luke Hochevar,
There is the setting of a minor star.
Go, for the Royals will cut you away,—
Nor think to riddle the dead words they say,
Nor any more to feel them as they fall;
But go, and trust that NPB will call.
There is the western gate, Luke Hochevar—
Luke Hochevar.

The drive for 75 is alive!

Or else they'll break through like the Orioles did last year, in which case you don't want your (at least) 18th straight meh, if not brutal, pitching staff getting in the way.

They traded a 20/25 overall prospect.(*) They didn't trade Darryl Strawberry or Ken Griffey, Jr.

(*) Or essentially what Wade Davis was five years ago.

It's always good sport to bash Dayton Moore and lionize Andrew Friedman, but anyone want to weigh in on what trading Shields does for the Rays' chances of winning the AL East in 2013? Is the perceived upgrade that Myers provides in the outfield going to outweigh the drop-off from Shields to Niemann/Archer/fifth starter? It seems to me that Tampa was in a very good position to compete for a division title next season, with everyone else in the division looking vulnerable, and may have just traded away their ace for four players who may or may not help them in the future.

It's always good sport to bash Dayton Moore and lionize Andrew Friedman, but anyone want to weigh in on what trading Shields does for the Rays' chances of winning the AL East in 2013? Is the perceived upgrade that Myers provides in the outfield going to outweigh the drop-off from Shields to Niemann/Archer/fifth starter? It seems to me that Tampa was in a very good position to compete for a division title next season, with everyone else in the division looking vulnerable, and may have just traded away their ace for four players who may or may not help them in the future.

I think they hope Matt Moore makes the jump and his production replaces Shields while Niemann/Archer/Odorizzi replaces Moore's production.

Wil Myers is the 3rd or 4th best prospect in the game.

Because Moore has been completely unable to make moves like the Fister trade, he's ended up paying a premium for "proven starting pitching". If he could have developed or acquired a couple of these guys, and he's certainly had the time, they wouldn't have traded one of baseball's best prospects, and more, for a #2 starter, or thrown tons of cash at Jeremy Guthrie. If he had gotten a mid-rotation guy back in the Melky trade, to name one example, they wouldn't be in this situation.

BINGO. I've been beating this drum for awhile now. Dayton has been insisting the only way to develop is to draft guys, wait for them to develop, then add vets. He has seemingly no ability to scour other teams' rosters for undervalued talent the way Andrew Friedman or Billy Beane has done. Had he found a diamond in the rough or two, he wouldn't have to spend so many resources on pitching now.

They made a bad pick taking Colon in 2010, not only were there pitchers on the board, but the pitchers were better prospects.

And supposedly their decision was either Colon or Chris Sale. The rest is history.

Wil Myers is the 3rd or 4th best prospect in the game.

Ten and 28, going backwards, the last two years in BA's list.

I think people would feel better about this trade for the Royals if they thought Moore would ditch Francoeur and find somebody worth giving a chance to in RF instead of committing to playing him every day. Instead they're "going all in" by trading top prospects for pitching while doing some of the same moronic things that have gotten them to this point in the first place. If Moore had shown that he was capable of putting a team on the field that looked like it might be a couple pitchers away from contention then this would be a lot more acceptable.

Ten and 28, going backwards, in BA's list.

3rd at midseason 2012.

Fister had a lot more risk when the Tigers acquired him than Shields does now. To minimize risk -- potential variance of performance -- you pay extra.

I think they hope Matt Moore makes the jump and his production replaces Shields while Niemann/Archer/Odorizzi replaces Moore's production.

Plus hoping that Cobb will be more consistent next season and put up above league average numbers.

3rd at midseason 2012.

After guys ahead of him got promoted and before the new draft class got put on the lists. He's not Machado, he's not Bundy, he's not Profar, he's not Matt Moore, etc.

Sean Casey was the #20 prospect and ready for The Show when John Hart flipped him for Dave Burba.

Dayton says expect more trades like this going forward.

Not sure if it was a promise or a threat.

After guys ahead of him got promoted and before the new draft class got put on the lists. He's not Machado, he's not Bundy, he's not Profar, he's not Matt Moore, etc.

Machado isn't a prospect anymore, neither is Moore. I'd say Bundy will be #1 on nearly every list, then it will be probably Profar then Myers or Oscar Taveras depending on who you talk to. I can't imagine anyone from the 2012 draft class being ahead of him. Who else would be up there? Gerrit Cole? Tajuan Walker? I think Myers is better than both.

After guys ahead of him got promoted and before the new draft class got put on the lists. He's not Machado, he's not Bundy, he's not Profar, he's not Matt Moore, etc.

In July Sickels had him higher than everyone but Profar.

Who else would be up there? Gerrit Cole? Tajuan Walker? I think Myers is better than both.

Oscar Taveras, maybe Byron Buxton. I still think Myers gets 3rd.

In July Sickels had him higher than everyone but Profar.

Forget it, he's rolling.

It's always good sport to bash Dayton Moore and lionize Andrew Friedman, but anyone want to weigh in on what trading Shields does for the Rays' chances of winning the AL East in 2013? Is the perceived upgrade that Myers provides in the outfield going to outweigh the drop-off from Shields to Niemann/Archer/fifth starter? It seems to me that Tampa was in a very good position to compete for a division title next season, with everyone else in the division looking vulnerable, and may have just traded away their ace for four players who may or may not help them in the future.

Well, their 'ace' is Price not Shields. But, yes this trade most likely weakens their 2013 team. They are sacrificing the present for the future - but the gamble is mitigated by their organizational depth at SP, and organizational emptiness at OF. And they are a cheapskate team, so money was a factor.

It seems to me that Tampa was in a very good position to compete for a division title next season, with everyone else in the division looking vulnerable, and may have just traded away their ace for four players who may or may not help them in the future.

There's still a lot of offseason left to travel, but as of now, the AL East looks as interesting as it has in years.

There's still a lot of offseason left to travel, but as of now, the AL East looks as interesting as it has in years

CAIRO tends to flatten things anyway, but it has all four non-Oriole teams within two games of each other.

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_

The 28 was after a year when he struggle with an injury - he's been pretty clear a top 10, top 15 prospect throughout his minor league career.

Crticizing the selection of Colon seems like hindsight, to me.