The Colon signing seemed kind of meh at the time, but it's not like I'm a draft expert. All of the really big talents were gone, so they went with a seemingly safe pick.

BA had him 9th, Sickels 11th, both had him below Pomeranz and Sale. It wasn't a big reach, but I don't think it was a good choice for the organization.

That's fair.

Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us. We took him under my watch. Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?"* The expected marginal value on Myers has to be tens of millions. Even if you're certain that he'll be an average major leaguer (ie., less than Jay Bruce), that's $5M x2 x6 in value above replacement. Subtract what he'll earn, and you're still left with something like $30-$40 million. And that's on a pessamistic projection, his expected marginal value must be much higher than that. There's no way that James Shields has that much expected marginal value. Glass must be furious, and if he isn't, he should be. Dayton Moore just cost him a lot of money.

*Glossing over the fact that other decisions didn't work out so well.

There is the western gate, Luke Hochevar,

God slays himself with every ball that flies

Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us.

Perhaps. But one would think that Moore would need to understand what "marginal value" means before using the term correctly in a sentence. So I think it is unlikely such a case would be made to ownership.

I'm generally opposed to critiques that assume people are stupid. Mistaken or misguided, sure, but it's tough to get a GM job if you're a complete boob.

I'm generally opposed to critiques that assume people are stupid.

Good argument, wrong thread to make it in.

#207 Peter Principle in action? He (and/or the people working for him) is obviously well above average at recognizing raw talent. Or perhaps in projecting undrafted players. At any rate he does some useful things quite well.

Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us. We took him under my watch. Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.

Sam Mellinger's article, which I linked earlier, made this point:

But this much should also be recognized: Moore and owner David Glass just made the kind of move I've been hammering them to make for quite some time.

Along with Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, the Royals' top four starting pitchers for 2013 have all been acquired in the last few months. Shields is due around $10 million and Davis $2.8 million, meaning Glass has OK'd the $80 million payroll that a lot of us have been screaming for.

The Royals are trying to win, in other words, and trying to do so now - so in some ways it's a bit disingenuous to be complaining now that they're doing it.

and I absolutely subscribe to that view. A good chunk of Moore's intent in making this deal is to show his boss and the community that the Royals are trying to grab the opportunity that they see. He's running the not-insignificant risk that Mellinger is right and that he's grabbing for it a year early, but that's the chance you have to take sometimes.

-- MWE

i'm really REALLY not getting this

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years? this is like the astros wasting chris burke/jason lane in the minors for years because they WERE gonna play biggio/assorted veteran.

gil meche is the ONLY free agent who could have gotten work somewhere else, who agreed to go to KC (and they had had a winning record in 03, remember?) and you think that GOOD pitcher FA are gonna suddenly agree to go there WHY? based on like WHAT evidence?

do you think that the royals should just have continued to have no starting pitching other than the crap they have? you think that odorizzi = shields?

when exactly would it be OK with you for them to trade SOMEone for pitching? no, they failed to develop any good pitcher since greinke. so they can either buy crap or trade for someone. and if you want to have even a chance at winning, you can't get there with bruce chen x 5. why, now, should they wait for TWO MORE YEARS? how would that change anything except for having all their currently young players more expensive?

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF

Why does this have to be the reality we work with? Most of the time, the reality is that an underachieving veteran who's blocking a top prospect is going to be kicked to the curb. A mistake doesn't stop being a mistake because you compare it to a bigger mistake.

when exactly would it be OK with you for them to trade SOMEone for pitching?

When the Royals get equal or greater value in return.

Francoeur is signed for one more year. He would have been benched or traded or released in late-May/early-June.

If he wants the fans to get excited Glass/Moore should try and get Swisher or another free agent to play RF (if he would actually sign).

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years? this is like the astros wasting chris burke/jason lane in the minors for years because they WERE gonna play biggio/assorted veteran.

The Royals having mismanaged the team over the years is not a defense of them continuing to mismanage the team this year.

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.

The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?

Speaking of Sickels, he just posted a trade analysis with analogy to, of all things, the Civil War. "Lincoln" on the brain, perhaps?

George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore is trying to avoid being McClellan. He's got the farm system built up, the army trained and organized. He's good at that. Now he's taking the field of battle and deploying those forces. That's admirable.

Of course, what's the next part of the story? Is Moore going to turn into an aggressive, brilliant field commander like Ulysses S. Grant or William Tecumseh Sherman? Will he be cautious but effective like George Gordon Meade? Mercurial and erratic like Joe Hooker? Or will he be the well-meaning but dangerously inept Ambrose Burnside? The suicidally aggressive John Bell Hood?

George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore is trying to avoid being McClellan. He's got the farm system built up, the army trained and organized. He's good at that. Now he's taking the field of battle and deploying those forces. That's admirable.

Of course, what's the next part of the story? Is Moore going to turn into an aggressive, brilliant field commander like Ulysses S. Grant or William Tecumseh Sherman? Will he be cautious but effective like George Gordon Meade? Mercurial and erratic like Joe Hooker? Or will he be the well-meaning but dangerously inept Ambrose Burnside? The suicidally aggressive John Bell Hood?

Good analogy, bad forecast for the Royals. I don't think McClellan ever won a battle.

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.

I'd argue that for better or worse, the KC fan base has been beaten to the point where, if anything, they have been brainwashed to put their faith in the farm system.

That's in part by making some dumb moves for established talent. I think some folks probably woke up to this in 2004 after the terrible moves of going for it by signing Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago. But the recent moves haven't helped at all. Going for it in 2008 by signing Jose Guillen to a huge contract and overpaying what little was left of Brett Tomko. In 2009 by trading for Mike Jacobs and signing Kyle Farnsworth and Jason Kendall to much more than they were worth.

Previous moves had jaded the fan base and had a good number of folks looking to the minors. The 2010 farm system being anointed as the bEST FARM SYSTEM EEVER!!1! grabbed a hold of those that hadn't previously been on the bandwagon.

KC radio has enjoyed taking shots at the fans by repeatedly pointing out that fans know much more about the AA and AAA players than they do the major league roster. Wil Myers received an ovation that hadn't ever been seen before at a Future's Game. Heck, KC (I think) became the first city to ever sell out the Future's Game.

I don't think the fanbase needed any convincing of the long term value of holding onto a prospect like Myers. It has been beaten over their heads enough by now that the concept has stuck.

Now this generalization is not true of the super-casual fans in KC. But they haven't been following the Royals for years anyway.

The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?

I think you are forgetting about the big trade for Jonathan Sanchez. Although one could argue that that particular move did not end up mollifying the fanbase.

I must be missing something, cause Myers to me looks like a similar player to Travis Snider up to this point of his career. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?

Of course the trade looks better when you take Wil Myers' floor - Travis Snider, Delmon Young, Jay Bruce even - and say "welp, this is the kind of player Wil Myers is likely to be, so what's the big deal?". That's not good analysis, though.

are youse seriously saying that either anibal sanchez or edwin jackson is as good or reliable a pitcher as jamie shields?

Um yeah, check out the numbers. Jackson in particular has been one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. Sanchez doesn't have has long a track record, but the for the last three years he's been definitely as good as Shields.

I'm sure Oswalt would sign with the Royals as he's not likely to get a lot of offers elsewhere. And 5/65 isn't really an overpay for Jackson, who is a 3 WAR starter and only 29. Certainly I'd rather have Jackson at 11 million a year and Myers than Shields at 11 million a year (for only 2 years) and no Myers.

I thought this trade would be declared universally awful, but apparently there are still morons out there (looking at you Rosenthal).

do you think that the royals should just have continued to have no starting pitching other than the crap they have? you think that odorizzi = shields?

No they should have played Myers instead of Francouer. That's also Dayton Moore being in idiot. Just because his idiocy is in conflict with itself doesn't mean it's excused.

Or better yet they should have been able to get more value out of Myers + Odorizzi.

are youse seriously saying that either anibal sanchez or edwin jackson is as good or reliable a pitcher as jamie shields?

Seriously, a week ago, devoid of all the Dayton Moore hatred and Andrew Friedman love, I would have assumed people would group those three together. What makes you think Jamie Shields is that great?

I must be missing something, cause Myers to me looks like a similar player to Travis Snider up to this point of his career. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?

Yeah and Myers also looks like a very similar player to Barry Bonds up to this point. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?

But what is his ceiling? I don't see Mike Trout or Ryan Braun in his minor league numbers.

I don't see Mike Trout or Ryan Braun in his minor league numbers.

You're right. Because Ryan Braun was in R ball and A when he was 21. Myers was putting up a .987 OPS in AA and AAA (591 PA). I'm not arguing Myers is an all time great prospect, but he clearly would be a top 10 prospect any year.

Yeah and Myers also looks like a very similar player to Barry Bonds up to this point. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?

Wow, hyperbole much? Pretend for a minute that they are the same body type, there is a pretty big difference in Bonds' minor league K rate and what parks were in the PCL in 1986. Not even close to the hitter's league that it is now.

Myers in AA and AAA had a .987 OPS, Bonds had a .943 OPS. Myers did strike out a lot more, but also had more power.

The point is that comparing him to a single case, good or bad, is bad analysis. You want to compare him to all hitters rated in the to 5 among prospects.

And I'm not arguing that he isn't a top 10 prospect now, hell even top 5. I think he is just likely to be Jay Bruce at the top end. He is very likely to get there, but I still think trading him at his value peak as a "top prospect" for a front of the rotation starter plus a good back end isn't the worst way to handle this.

Dylan, the problem is that you just can't point at a single player's minor league number and say "that is who he is going to be".

So the Barry Bonds rate isn't perfect for you. How about Joey Votto? Fairly similar in stats and body. Does that work? If so, the comparison favors Wil Myers based on the minor league numbers alone.

Could he be Travis Snyder? Sure.

I think the more interesting thing would be to look at the OPS+ career leaders and point out the players on that list that weren't top notch prospects. There are very few of them.

Does that mean that Wil Myers is going to join that list? Of course not. But he's got a chance of being high on that list and there are only a handful of prospects that you can say that about each season.

Personally, I think the Jay Bruce comp is the best for what Myers becomes. But that's not his ceiling. Just, to me, the most likely outcome.

I still think trading him at his value peak as a "top prospect" for a front of the rotation starter plus a good back end isn't the worst way to handle this.

Agree 100%. But ...

Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.

[Edit] Even though you'd be getting even less in return, a trade like this would make a lot more sense to me if it was made in July after the Royals somehow ran off to a 55-40 start. At that point you have a good feeling you are getting to the postseason and even if you just get 1.5 years from Shields, I have no problem going for broke. (On top of that, you might be able to get an even better pitcher if there is a team or two out of the race that is willing to punt the season.) It's just odd to view a 72 win team and think that this is the time you go for it.

Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.

And not if you also include 3 other decent prospects.

Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.

I think some of these reason are why we have the difference of opinion on this trade. Right now I only see one team in the AL who has a great shot at the post season, and there are even some question marks with the Tigers as well. IMO, adding Shields and Davis put the Royals in a position to join that logjam of 9 teams fighting for those other 4 spots. I don't see Myers helping much more than Frenchy this year, definitely moving forward though.

I don't see Myers helping much more than Frenchy this year, definitely moving forward though.

Francoeur hit 235/287/378 last year. If Shields can't beat that then the Royals were right to trade him.

Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?"

Isn't that the Royals entire business model?

From the first century:

but the only reason to include one in December is so that the value of the trade can be changed later

Or the player hasn't been in the system for a year yet -- i.e. a 2012 draft pick. Or did they change that rule?

yes this trade most likely weakens their 2013 team

"their" being the Rays. I'm not so sure about that. The Rays need to replace Upton's production and Shields was "only" 2.2 bWAR last year. The Rays have a lot of SP depth -- maybe not as good as Shields but likely not a huge dropoff either. If Myers can be close to an average LF in 2013, this trade probably doesn't hurt the Rays to any significant extent. (The loss of Upton will likely hurt.)

As to the value of Shields ... I'm not sure anybody here goes on more about the importance of durability in SP and how it tends to be under-valued around here than me. But there are 43 SP who have made 90+ starts over the last 3 seasons combined. Among those, Shields is 30th in ERA+. He is 3rd in IP but the difference between him and the guys at the bottom of the IP ranking is about 30 IP or half a reliever. Despite the extra durability, by bWAR he's 34th among those 43, a full win behind Jackson and nearly 2 full wins behind Guthrie. Shields has been a top #2 starter, not an ace.

Fangraphs treats him MUCH more kindly but it's simply impossible to buy fangraphs numbers here. In 2010 he had an ERA+ of 75 and gave up 11 UER. bWAR gives him nearly -2 WAR which sounds about right. fWAR somehow turns that into a league average starter and gives him 2 WAR, largely due to having a 344 BABIP.

FWIW his 2012 ZiPS were pretty much spot on to his actual performance so I assume his 2013 ZiPS will be about the same.

Like most any pitcher, Shields' b-r comps are a scary bunch. Kevin Brown would be a lovely outcome but seems unlikely. Schmidt and Boddicker is what the Royals hope they're getting -- both about 8 WAR for 31-32, who cares if they fell apart after that. The other 7 are all bad outcomes. His top 3 2012 ZiPS comps were Lieber, Vazquez and Dennis Leonard with the first two providing 6-8 WAR and Leonard being kinda useless.

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years?

bbc, this is beneath you. I'm amazed how often this argument is made here:

"Moore is an idiot."

"No, this is a defensible trade under the assumption that Moore is too stupid to know that Myers is better than Francoeur."

"Glad to know we agree."

Seriously, at least I'm giving Moore the benefit of the doubt in that I think he knows Myers > Francoeur, I just think he's over-valuing Shields, misjudging the Royals' chances and probably under-valuing Myers (or over-valuing Moose, Hosmer, Gordon).

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media?

Hey, Royals fans, come out and see minor-league player of the year and top prospect Wil Myers. He's WAY better than Jeff Francoeur!

I'm not trading Jay Bruce for only two years of James Shield.

Walt, I do think that Moore is well aware that Myers > Francoeur. But I also don't think it is nearly as straightforward as that. Even though Myers might be better, the presence of Frenchy made him expendable.

I don't believe that Moore is willing to take Francoeur out of the lineup. In part because Moore sees Francoeur's tools and he wishcasts Frenchy into a much better player than he really is. But even more because of the amazing clubhouse presence Frenchy is and just how important it is to have a guy like that on the team, especially for a team as young as the Royals are. The latter bugs me because its the one area where as outsiders, we really have no idea just how important it really is. Do I think having Frenchy in the clubhouse matters? No. But maybe it does. Either way, Dayton Moore has gone out of his way to stress how important he believes it to be and as such I think Moore found himself with the luxury of having a top notch prospect he could easily trade because there wasn't a natural spot on the diamond for him to play.

I don't believe that Moore is willing to take Francoeur out of the lineup. In part because Moore sees Francoeur's tools and he wishcasts Frenchy into a much better player than he really is. But even more because of the amazing clubhouse presence Frenchy is and just how important it is to have a guy like that on the team, especially for a team as young as the Royals are.

Moore used the same logic to keep on playing Yuniesky Betancourt for years.

Myers is waaaay more athletic than snider ever was, which I think is an important distinction. He could at least fake almost every position on the diamond if need be, while hitting like a big league right fielder - as of right now. No guarantee that he'll develop further, but that's an average big league starter with serious cost control as a somehat pessimistic scenario.

Is there a reason Myers wasn't moved full time to 3B? Just positionally blocked or do they not think he can handle it?

CAIRO tends to flatten things anyway, but it has all four non-Oriole teams within two games of each other.

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_

Damn, the Rockies are only projected 2 games better than their pythag from 2012.

The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?

They explained it by saying if you want All-Star Tickets you gotta buy some type of season package. You want to go to the All-star game don't you?

All those partial ticket package went the way of the dodo this off-season, this may be an attempt to salvage that.
And in Kansas City, attendance is still an important part of revenue what with the lack of $200MM per year local TV rights package.

Is there a reason Myers wasn't moved full time to 3B? Just positionally blocked or do they not think he can handle it?

It's not clear if they thought he could handle it, but Moustakas improved with the glove last year and had a hot start. That's enough for them to pencil him in until 2015.

I'm wondering what others think.

I was having this discussion with someone else. I think that if Hosmer and Moose were already established as quality starters or better, then Myers is more expendable. But right now, I think of the three, Myers is the LEAST likely to suck because he hasn't sucked in the majors yet, while Moose--and certainly Hosmer--have. They all three have high ceilings, but the chances of them hitting their perceived floor (or worse) is higher with these players who have already demonstrated that they have struggled to adjust. Many people seem to behave as if Hosmer and/or Moose are sure things, and the only thing they haved proved is that they are having trouble adjusting. I think at least one of them will and go on to be good, but they are no more a "sure thing" than Myers is.

Now that he's off the Royals, the pessimist fan in me is convinced Myers is going to hit the ground running as a new Tim Salmon or even better.

walt

i am not arguing that the royals SHOULD play frenchy. i am saying that they ARE gonna play him and there is no reason to think for one minute that they are going to DFA him in May because the Organization LUUUVVVVSS him. he's not even an AVERAGE player or an old franchise player and he got signed to an extension. for all we know it is glass who wants him there and moore has nothing to say about it. i saw how that works with the astros and the carcass of biggio. i guess him french magic don't work on the bench. i am dealing with reality, which is that myers was NOT gonna displace frenchy.

fact is that none of us have any idea whether or not myers can hit ML pitching. look at hosmer. look at moustakas. look at a shyt ton of other guys who were sure to be The Next Albert Pujols or The Next Darryl Strawberry and ended up being The Next Neverwuz.

true that the melky for sanchez trade didn't work out, but i disremember anyone here saying it was a stupid trade and sanchez was gonna pitch like a 10 year old. shields and davis aren't halliday and cliff lee, but they are the best pitchers KC has had in years, besides greinke. guthrie/ervin santana??? shudder. now THAT is the quality of FA that is willing to sign with KC, not anibal sanchez/edwin jackson.

at some point, unless you are going to be like the astros and marlins, you are supposed to TRY to win, not keep telling your fans - two more years, two more years. they've been saying two more years for 6-7 years. why do you think this team would have been a winner in 2 years IF they actually HADN'T made this trade? who are all these great pitchers they would have in 2 years? because i sure don't see them. odorizzi??? montgomery the reliever who can't locate in the minors? you think they can win with 5 ERA starters and crap relievers even if they had mike eff trout instead of myers?

getting shields/davis for even TWO years looks a LOT more like trying to win than signing the carcasses of jose guillen/jason kendall/reliever/other washed up crap. or doing nothing. or stockpiling more prospects for 2 years from now.

and even if they go 83-81, it is freaking AWESOME to FINALLY have a winning season after decades of losing.

you know, sometimes a team SHOULD trade top prospects for actual major leaguers. you guys always scream like he!! whenever a team trades top notch prospects for major leaguers. and i said "sometimes" and not "all the time" like the astros USED to do.

you guys should go root for the astros - after all, their major league team has no major leaguers (except altuve and he is NOT ryan braun/joey votto) and they are stockpiling prospects. they are gonna be saying - two more years for the next 20 years while waiting for That Magic Moment when everything is perfect. and you can enjoy watching minor league talent play major league games.

I think I'd go Moustakas #1, Myers #2, Hosmer #3. Without much confidence.

he's not even an AVERAGE player or an old franchise player and he got signed to an extension.

He was in the middle of a very good season at the time. It wasn't an extension based on his personality.