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Sunday, June 16, 2013

Ballou: Another Drew attracts anxiety for Red Sox

(www.telegram.com)

posted 3 days ago by Repoz to history, red sox | 27 comment(s)

Scat Ballou: Is this the way to make a shiity column…? You bet it is!

Now, the Sox have taken it to a new level with the Brothers Drew.

Neither is very good, but there’s something about a Drew that whoever Boston’s general manager is can’t resist, be it Theo Epstein or Ben Cherington.

OK, J.D. Drew had a couple of respectable seasons with the Red Sox. And, OK, Stephen Drew is a good defensive shortstop. Still, starting with Opening Day of 2010, Boston has committed $37.5 million ...

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1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season. Is it fair to say that ZiPS sees Ellsbury's 2011 season as a fluke?

2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:49 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So assuming Dice-K misses all of next season, at the moment the Red Sox have a grand total of 458 projected innings of above-average SP under contract for next year. Of course, the Yankees have a grand total of 396--and that includes CC who is "under contract for next year" in only the most literal of senses at the moment.

That's brutal all around.

3. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lavarnway looks too low...
His MLE for his Pawtuckett time is .271/.345/.504
and .255/.314/.398 about equal time in each so his 2011 MLE on the whole was about .263/.330/.453

his career minor league line is .284/.376/.521- no PCL or Cal league boost either

4. zenbitz posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Kevin Youkilis - HOF?

5. Dan Szymborski

posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season.

That's mostly because of his missed playing time.

If I force 2011 PA, those odds go up to 30%.

6. Famous Original Joe C posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

7. Ebessan posted on October 25, 2011 at 09:55 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What it really came down to was the Red Sox, like pretty much every team, couldn't cope with having 4/5th of their preseason starting rotation injured at one point or another in September

Turns out that it was all five.

8. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:03 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Kevin Youkilis - HOF?

Doubtful if he really ends up with less than 6000 PA. There aren't a lot of Hall of Famers who are in there with less than that. And a lot of the ones who are missed time either due to war or segregation.

I wonder how many teams would project to have more. I bet it's less than you think.

Well, there's Philly, that's one. You're probably right that not many teams have more than that (not many teams have a guy like Lester or CC) but then, not many teams have the payroll and expectations of the Red Sox and Yankees.

9. Famous Original Joe C posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:08 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

not many teams have the payroll and expectations of the Red Sox and Yankees.

Also a fair point.

Kevin Youkilis - HOF?

As a huge Youkilis backer since the days he was putting up .500+ OBPs in the low minors, I would say no chance in hell.

10. Danny posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's quite a BABIP differential between Buchholz and Balcolm-Miller.

2300 more AB for Ortiz seems optimistic.

How does Randy Williams have a >50% chance at a 100 ERA+?

The Adam Hyzdu comp for Drew looks strange, but I guess he hit well in AAA at age 34.

11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wow, check out that ISO on Varitek! Not too shabby for a 40-year-old catcher.

I'd like to request two bullpen guys if you don't mind, Dan: Cesar Cabral (the LHP one) and Eammon Portice.

12. villageidiom posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Matsuzaka's #1 comp is Dwight Gooden.

13. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season

Thanks.

14. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius posted on October 25, 2011 at 10:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Sutton is not on the roster, I think.

15. puck posted on October 25, 2011 at 11:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It will be interesting to see if Balcolm-Miller turns into anything useful (and for Rockies fans, it will be painful if he does). He was traded for the corpse of Manny Delcarmen. 9 appearances, 8.1 IP, 0-2, 12 hits, 4 walks...

16. cgbb posted on October 25, 2011 at 11:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I noticed Ellsburuy's UZR compares favorably to other 'Vg' CF's. What stat does Ells have to improve on to be 'Vg' in CF?

17. Mike Emeigh

posted on October 25, 2011 at 11:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lavarnway looks too low...

I'm not so sure about that.

Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.

-- MWE

18. ray james posted on October 25, 2011 at 11:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Surprised Lavarnway is projected so low. I would think his MLEs would suggest he's at least an average MLB hitter.

19. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 26, 2011 at 12:07 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I really really really really really really really really hope they give one of Doubront or Tazawa a real shot at a rotation spot. I prefer Doubront but either one is fine with me.

So assuming Dice-K misses all of next season, at the moment the Red Sox have a grand total of 458 projected innings of above-average SP under contract for next year. Of course, the Yankees have a grand total of 396--and that includes CC who is "under contract for next year" in only the most literal of senses at the moment.

BBRef shows 15 teams with more than 458 innings from pitchers who started at least 80% of their games and an ERA+ 100 or higher.

20. Biff, highly-regarded young guy posted on October 26, 2011 at 01:08 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Those Varitek numbers don't look right. .452 SLG?

21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 26, 2011 at 01:15 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

.473 and .423 the last two years Biff. Varitek has been cheating at the plate in a big way. Basically he's just taking as big a hack as he can and if he hits it, it goes. His ISO in 2010 was a carreer high and last year was still above his career mark.

Unrelated to Varitek I have to say that I find the modest Jose Iglesais line encouraging. If he can be the Gold Glove caliber defender he is projected to be that is actually a line that is within shouting distance of tolerable. considering how horrible he was this year that is good news.

22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 26, 2011 at 01:21 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Dan, if you are taking requests would it be possible to have a look at Daniel Bard as a starter?

23. John DiFool2 posted on October 26, 2011 at 02:20 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Middlebrooks has a projected BB/K of 26/152. I honestly don't think this guy belongs within a dozen light years of any top 20 Sox prospect list, but whom am I to argue with all the experts? Hope I am wrong of course.

24. JJ1986 posted on October 26, 2011 at 02:33 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?

AG#1F was right.

25. Nate posted on October 26, 2011 at 03:03 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.

Interesting Mike. What benchmarks do you use for LD rates and in-play ISO? And have you seen any studies or noted a number of players that fit this profile and didn't perform well?

26. Dan Szymborski

posted on October 26, 2011 at 03:30 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I noticed Ellsburuy's UZR compares favorably to other 'Vg' CF's. What stat does Ells have to improve on to be 'Vg' in CF?

Do it more than once. A single season of defensive stats has about the predictive value as two months of offensive stats.

Ellsbury's UZR for 2011 was excellent, enough to get him to VG if that was the only source I used. By TZ and BIS, he was at 0 and -2 in 1900 innings in center before this year.

27. bigboy1234 posted on October 26, 2011 at 04:06 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Nice, keep this pace up and all the projections will be done by Thanksgiving.

Thanks for all the work Dan.

28. Davo Mastroianni posted on October 26, 2011 at 03:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The Sox seem to have a ton of guys who are primed for super-high-variance 2012s.

Ellsbury coming off a career-best year, Crawford and Lackey coming off career-worsts, and then guys like Ortiz and Youkilis, guys with the type of skillsets who *could* fall off a cliff any second, Adam Dunn-style.

29. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises posted on October 26, 2011 at 03:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

ZiPS thinks Kalish should at the least get as long a look as Reddick in 2012.

30. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong posted on October 26, 2011 at 03:47 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is Lin's 3rd comp, Tony Gwynn Sr or Jr

31. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 26, 2011 at 04:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Wow, check out that ISO on Varitek! Not too shabby for a 40-year-old catcher.

Those Varitek numbers don't look right. .452 SLG?

.473 and .423 the last two years Biff. Varitek has been cheating at the plate in a big way. Basically he's just taking as big a hack as he can and if he hits it, it goes. His ISO in 2010 was a carreer high and last year was still above his career mark.

That .473 in 2010 was in 123 PAs, he's at .414 for 2009-2011, .440 in 2010-2011
Salty was at .443 in 2010-2011 and he projects to .410 in 2012?
Lowrie .433 and he projects at .406?

Let's just say that ZiPS seems to be deviating from Marcel more than usual here

32. Famous Original Joe C posted on October 26, 2011 at 04:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Salty was at .443 in 2010-2011 and he projects to .410 in 2012?

He also slugged .371 in 2009 in the majors, and .453 in AAA (mainly the PCL) in 2010. Seems totally reasonable to me.

For Lowrie, that .433 over 2010-11 has a .382 component from 2011. Don't recall the weights ZiPs uses for past performance, but that .382 is almost certainly getting more weight. The .265 in limited time in 2009 probably doesn't help either.

33. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee posted on October 26, 2011 at 04:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

ZiPS thinks Kalish should at the least get as long a look as Reddick in 2012.

That seems kind of amazing to me, given that Kalish basically had a lost year in the minors and Reddick put up a 109 OPS+ in Boston. Reddick really dropped off in Aug/Sept, but wow. I guess Reddick's minor league numbers don't really compare well to Kalish's.

34. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 26, 2011 at 05:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

He also slugged .371 in 2009 in the majors, and .453 in AAA (mainly the PCL) in 2010. Seems totally reasonable to me.

But he's young, Tek is not, BROCK6 (ok it's old and crappy) has Tek at .399 in 2012, Lowrie at .407 and Salty at well, way to high (BROCK6 always gives guys spike years at age 27)

Salty will be 27, and has a career SLG of .406 and ZiPS says .410?
Tek will be 40, has a carer SLG of .435 (.423 last year) and ZiPS says .452?

I don't know how the comps work in ZiPS projections, but none of Teks' top 3 played at age 40
Saltys' #1, Afenir, was a league average hitter- in AAA at age 26, his #3 was a career minor leaguer who wasn't nearly as good as Afenir - and Geren is kind of like Afenir- except Geren pulled 220 good MLB PAs out of his butt during his age 27 season somehow, before turning back into a pumpkin.

In isolation I don't necessarily see Salty's or Lowries' projection as unreasonable, compared to Tek however, it's a head scratcher

35. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on October 26, 2011 at 05:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Just a quick 3-2-1 forecast (think I did this right)

Varitek - .434
Satlalamacchia - .384
Lowrie - .411

Age and other factors make those numbers suspect but just as a smell test they make Dan's numbers seem reasonably estimated to me. I'd take the under on Varitek and the over on Saltalamacchia fairly comfortably but I can see where ZiPS would get its numbers.

36. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 26, 2011 at 06:33 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Just a quick 3-2-1 forecast (think I did this right)

at a 3-2-1 weight I get:
Varitek: .423
Salty: .428
Lowrie: .413

I think you are not accounting for the ABs each had in their respective seasons.
I really can't see where ZiPS is getting its numbers on this one

I can't see how Tek is projected to outslug Salty by 42 points:
Salty outsugged Tek last year
Salty outslugged Tek 2010-2011
Tek outslugged Salty 200-2011 by .414 to .411

Salty will be 27
Tek will be 40

37. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora posted on October 26, 2011 at 06:43 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Salty did play 72 games in AAA in 2010, and slugged .453 there, I'm not sure what his MLEs were, but plugging in a .350 brings his 3:2:1 weighted average down to .409, .325 brings it down to .402.

38. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 26, 2011 at 06:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

5/4/3 projection for Salty and Tek, using an MLE on Salty's 2010 minor league numbers. (I get Salty's MLE SLG for 2010 at .363.)

218/304/418 - Tek
225/291/403 - Saltalamacchia

Tek's slugging projection looks high to me, too. Saltalamacchia is just about exactly on the nose with his 5/4/3 average.

39. TDF, situational idiot posted on October 26, 2011 at 07:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Hey, if the Sox need an innings-eater, I'm sure they could reunite with one of the valiant knights who brought all things good and virtuous back into the daylight for little more than a bag of balls. Not only could hee could help the new GM prove his Epstienness, it's obvious his control is much better now - he's cut his HBPs by more than half!

40. Darren

posted on October 26, 2011 at 07:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So who votes for putting our "fair" RF A Gonz in the OF and getting Pujols!

I would also love it if Scutaro was an average SS, but I fear he's not up to playing the position anymore.

41. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on October 26, 2011 at 07:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

A semi-strict R/L platoon of Lavarnway and Saltalamacchia would give the Red Sox well above offense at catcher at a nice cheap price. I like that.

Cherington said in his first news conference that he expected Reddick and Kalish to compete for the RF job. I like that.

Now they just need to acquire some good, expensive pitchers. Hope they get the right ones.

42. Dan Szymborski

posted on October 27, 2011 at 05:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Tek's slugging projection looks high to me, too. Saltalamacchia is just about exactly on the nose with his 5/4/3 average.

The reason is twofold:

1) The power of love...errr...rounding. ZiPS rounds to nearest whole number and in this case, low at-bat numbers and some luck here gives Varitek a little boost. ZiPS only "really" has Varitek slugging .434. Why do I round? The year I didn't, every damn thread had people confused as to why they couldn't replicate the BA/OBP/SLG presented with the numbers given and it would look fugly to project a guy at 34.2353241502835902385 home runs.

2) The younger or older the player, the more important recent history and the less important farther history. ZiPS cares more about Varitek's .473 and .423 than the previous .390 and .359.

43. Marver posted on October 27, 2011 at 06:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is Lin's 3rd comp, Tony Gwynn Sr or Jr

I believe that's Sr., as Jr. was referred to as 'Anthony Gwynn' in the old ZIPS projections.

44. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee posted on February 14, 2012 at 03:29 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.

Out of curiosity, where are you getting your minor league data? I can't find anything from 2011, but Lavarnway looks to have a pretty average to below-average flyball rate from what I can see:

Year    FB Rate   League Avg FB Rate
2010    45.7%          46.1%
2009    38.8%          47.9%
2008    30.2%          48.6% 

Did he have a FB spike in 2011?

45. Jittery McFrog posted on February 17, 2012 at 05:25 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Adrian Gonzalez [...] Mo Vaughn
Dustin Pedroia [...] John Valentin
Ryan Kalish [...] Troy O’Leary
Scott Atchison [...] Rick Aguilera

So 2012 Red Sox remind ZiPS of the 1995 Red Sox. Hmmm.

46. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 17, 2012 at 05:41 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

So 2012 Red Sox remind ZiPS of the 1995 Red Sox. Hmmm.

Does that mean in October Lou Marson = Tony Pena?

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Sunday, June 16, 2013

Ballou: Another Drew attracts anxiety for Red Sox

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Red Sox Think Factory