Sunday, May 19, 2013
Cafardo: Dustin Pedroia the best second baseman in MLB?
(www.bostonglobe.com)
Sweet spectroscopy! The argument is rolled out again!
Read More...It’s not surprising to hear what two scouts from each league, who both have watched a lot of the American League this year, say about Dustin Pedroia.
“Nobody is playing his position better in baseball right now than Pedroia,” said the AL scout. “He’s playing out of his mind. The plays he’s making — you just don’t see that stuff every day, but you see it with him every day. Honestly, I’m surprised he doesn’t get hurt ...
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< 1 2 3 >I don't like saying this, but this. For a reliever.
But you're right, it's not Reddick or even Lowrie who for even half a season has value.
As far as i can tell, Sands raked at every level but for his 1/3rd season in the majors. But, mostly I don't like trading field players for relievers.
And Bard.
I mean I'm not super high on Bard but the Sox are sitting on a guy who throws 98-99 and a year ago was one of the best set up men in the game.
I'll repeat what I said in the thread about the trade; Sands/Stolmy is a reasonable package for Hanrahan but it's an odd use of resources for this team.
I agree, although Atchison is not under contract. Tazawa should be getting some prime innings - last year he threw 86 shutdown innings, half in AAA and half in the American League, with 100 K's and only 22 BB's and 3 homeruns allowed, and the stuff to match.
Right or wrong I think it is quite clear that the Red Sox have made the clubhouse a major part of their decision making process this winter.
For what it's worth, ZiPS still doesn't really love Reddick next year.
Sands, Pimentel, Melancon, DeJesus
for
Hanrahan and Brock Holt
Not a huge fan of this but the Sox aren't exactly giving away the farm and Holt at least looks good on a BBRef page. Middle infielder, .808 OPS in the minors. Don't know a damned thing about him other than that though so I can't really get excited but #### it, I'll get a little excited.
I say "one would hope" because I have zero interest in giving up a draft pick to get LaRoche and don't think he'd be any great shakes; even if he signed for just a 2-year deal (a big if), I'm not sure that would balance out the loss of the pick (and the slot money for that lost pick).
I'm really not concerned about it specifically, but the Red Sox have shown that they ARE concerned about it in their specific choice of Free Agent signings during this entire offseason. For every position they were looking at filling, they've signed the option that didn't require giving up a draft pick and giving up the ~$1M in the draft pool that the 2nd round pick is worth. Personally I think that was a missed opportunity; the Red Sox won't often have a protected first round pick and during an offseason when they did have one they should have taken advantage of that and signed either a Hamilton or a Swisher or maybe even Greinke. But since they went with Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, and provisionally Napoli over those guys, changing their plans at the last minute and giving up a pick for the likes of Adam LaRoche would show a complete inability to execute a coherent and logical strategy for the offseason.
Two reasons;
1. Second round picks have value. It's not the 7th pick in the draft but it's a pretty useful spot in the draft that should be helpful.
2. It impacts the Sox signability issues. If the Sox lose the pick they also lose that slot money for the draft. It's possible that is a non-issue but if they are able to get the player in that spot to sign for below slot they have some money to spend elsewhere.
Right now, Dejan is trying to get the Pirates' front office fired, for what are apparently personal reasons. As such, take anything he says with a grain of salt.
+ 6 Bat - 2 Run + 15 Rep - 8 Pos + 5 Def = +15 RAR
He projects as a below average player. The Sox can certainly cobble together equivalent 1B production from Mauro Gomez and another minor league bat.
That's a bit harsh, no? They lost out on one guy and had to go with their 2nd choice, thereby losing a nearly valueless pick? I don't see it.
I do agree, though, that LaRoche is not a good target.
This times a million. LaRoche is the guy you add as a free agent when you already have a lights out staff and 3-4 all stars on the roster. Let's hope this is just to motivate Napoli to sign a favorable deal.
I disagree with the idea that a 2nd round pick is "valueless." Beyond that while Dan may have been a bit harsh I am aggressively unimpressed with Cherington so far.
Darren, your trade ideas for 1B look wiser every day that this Napoli business remains s.n.a.f.u. The Angels did end up trading someone to relieve their logjam - and not exactly for a king's ransom. I'm not sure if LAA would have dealt with Boston. The Cardinals guys all remain untraded.
How about "nearly valueless"? :) An early 2nd round pick averages, what, about 5 career WAR? And according to Wang, it has an excess value of a couple million dollars. Is that a couple million dollars going to be a major consideration when acquiring a free agent? Sounds like, ya know, nearly valueless.
Sorta. If they chose Napoli over Swisher based on the pick, lost out on Swisher during the medical brouhaha and then had to go with their *3rd* choice, it seems fair to criticize management. Of course, they may have liked Napoli over Swisher based on expected performance or the years involved rather than just the pick.
I'll agree to "potentially valueless" and nothing lower! This is shaping up to be the Sox Therapy Cliff! (assuming the "impact player" brouhaha has been resolved).
Ultimately draft picks as a whole are "mostly valueless" but I think they help create a perceived organizational depth which can help in making a trade. Even if we accept for the moment the "nearly valueless" determination I don't think Laroche is a player to give up a lottery ticket for.
The current projection for the 2013 amateur draft is that this is one of the weakest draft classes of the last decade or two. That's annoying (and things could easily change this spring), but it does suggest that overdrafting at #7 is an even better idea than usual. If one of the best players drops to #7, and he won't sign for $1M over slot, the Sox can roll over that pick to 2014, when the draft class almost certainly has to be stronger.
EDIT: As dave h suggests, though, the same logic also applies to overdrafting at 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th. You can risk losing the #5 pick because the 2014 #5 should be more valuable. It depends on the team, of course - some clubs need to show a return from the draft or maximize the near-future value of their draft picks. The Sox' payroll and the quality of the minor league system give us more leeway.
Yeah, I'm more worried about it actually going through but with a JD Drew/John Lackey "Please play hurt and don't tell us" clause.
If you follow mlbtraderumors, you'll know that the "mystery team" interested in Napoli was floated on the same afternoon that the LaRoche stories were floated. The simplest explanation for the "mystery team" rumor is to gain back some leverage in negotiations with the Sox.
Equally simple and realistic is that Napoli is being shopped and some team is actually interested. Because he should be a pretty desirable signing, and there seems to be little reason for the agent to not find alternatives to the Red Sox at this point.
A team could easily give him a 1/13-15 deal, so he can prove his health. I'd have to think the Yankees would be interested in that.
I could be wrong but I would expect that Napoli wouldn't go to another team unless he got a 3 year guarantee (or maybe he's pissed and would take a similar 2+1 that I believe the Sox are offering). I doubt a 1 year deal is that appealing to him.
I'm making the assumption that the Sox' offer is 2/26 + 1/13 that kicks in at 800 PA or something like that. I haven't read anything concrete on that front but that seems reasonable. If the Sox were offering one year I think he'd have bailed.
I could be wrong but I would expect that Napoli wouldn't go to another team unless he got a 3 year guarantee (or maybe he's pissed and would take a similar 2+1 that I believe the Sox are offering). I doubt a 1 year deal is that appealing to him.
I'm making the assumption that the Sox' offer is 2/26 + 1/13 that kicks in at 800 PA or something like that. I haven't read anything concrete on that front but that seems reasonable. If the Sox were offering one year I think he'd have bailed.
No point in bailing until you've got a fallback.
Your scenario makes sense, but if Napoli is unhappy with the 2 yr + option, he's going to make sure he has another acceptable offer before he cuts off talks.
Well, if you ignore that these two rumors were released within hours of each other, it seems possible that there is a mystery team. But the fact is that the LaRoche rumor was followed within hours by the mystery team rumor. There might still be a market for Napoli, but for the last few weeks he's been "off the market" having reached agreement with the Sox.
Did you look at the link? They actually give you a WAR projection! (Hint: less than 3)
Even after 2 averagish years with the bat, ZiPS projects a below average offensive year for Reddick. I'd call that "not loving", but you can call it what you like.
He's 28 and he's been repeating AAA since he was 24. His playing time in Memphis has been limited every year. He hasn't played a full season of ball since 2007. I'm guessing he's significanly injury-prone, but a quick google didn't turn up much information. He got called up to the Cardinals bench in 2011, so his limited PA in 2011 might have been about bench-warming rather than injury.
But the semi-interesting part. These are Mark Hamilton's hitting numbers in AAA before 2012:
319/406/530, 640 AB, 148/90 K/BB
That translates roughly to an MLE line of 355/435. Not bad.
Obviously, my exclusion of 2012 doesn't really serve any purpose other than to create pretty numbers. Hamilton was bad last year, hitting 230/340/420 and seeing his K-rate spike well over 25%. There's a reason he's getting cut. But this is a guy with some amount of potential, who's still around his peak age. He has played both 1B and LF, which makes him a pretty perfect fit for the bench if he can recover his batting stroke.
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