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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)

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posted 2 days ago by Jose Can Still Seabiscuit to owners, red sox | 37 comment(s)

“I have [former Red Sox CEO] John Harrington’s old office. The day he turned over the reins, he was sitting at the desk and handed me his pen with a warm smile,” Henry wrote in an email.“I still have it. Red ink. I work more of my hours though in my home offices in Florida and in Brookline. But there is nothing like driving into Fenway Park to go to work. I am thankful every day that I get to do that. It’s one big reason why these rumors of a potential sale of the Red Sox are so ...

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1. SG posted on December 10, 2012 at 05:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

He had the Sox projected to win 78 games before they made any free agent signings.

Actually I had them at 75. Jays were at 78.

2. dave h posted on December 10, 2012 at 05:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Sign Hamilton and Sanchez, and 2013 AL East Champs here we come!

3. Nasty Nate posted on December 10, 2012 at 05:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Sorry to go off topic so fast, but I saw this item at mlbtraderumors.com and I don't really understand:

The Red Sox claimed right-hander Sandy Rosario off of waivers from the Athletics, the teams announced. The move opens up a spot on Boston's 40-man roster, which now includes 39 players.

This is the second time this offseason that the Red Sox have claimed Rosario off of waivers. They claimed him from Miami on October 17th then traded him to Oakland for a player to be named later (later announced as Graham Godfrey) or cash considerations on November 28th. The A's designated Rosario for assignment two days after acquiring him from Boston.

How does claiming a guy open up a spot? What did Oakland have to gain from this series of events?

---

As far as the topic, it is nice for the Sox' 2013 chances that the Rays have seemed to make themselves worse in the short-term with the Shields trade. Also James Loney is their first-baseman...

4. UnclePab posted on December 10, 2012 at 08:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Maybe they meant it opened a spot on Oakland's 40-man roster?

5. Darren

posted on December 10, 2012 at 08:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This is encouraging news, especially given how down I was after the Shields trade. Sadly, Tampa will again get everyone ever to play out of their minds and will not have any of their young pitchers falter or get hurt, so that's a bummer.

But even so, if the Sox do add a good starter and swing a deal for a pretty decent SS, they should be in contention for the division. Hooray!

6. TomH posted on December 10, 2012 at 08:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

snark: but does SG's CAIRO show the Dodgers could win 110?
seriously: Does SG have comparison between 'early useless' CAIRO's last 3 yrs predictions and end-of-year standings, to show any possible trends of what teams may be under- or over-rated by this measure?

7. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 12, 2012 at 02:04 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

They should add another 2-3 win starting pitcher

Robothal is saying they are in "serious discussions" with Ryan Dempster. Color me unimpressed if he's the guy since it seems a 3 year deal is needed.

8. Vin Middle posted on December 12, 2012 at 04:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Are there any short-deal SPs out there that excite people? Marcum? Liriano? Mike Pelfrey??

9. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 12, 2012 at 04:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I like Marcum a lot personally. If he can be landed on a one or two year deal I'd be all for it.

10. Nasty Nate posted on December 12, 2012 at 04:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Are there any short-deal SPs out there that excite people?

Dice-K

I'll show myself out.

11. karlmagnus posted on December 12, 2012 at 05:14 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

They're managing to blow the entire savings from the LA deal and acquire NO top-line talent. WHAT a useless operation.

12. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 12, 2012 at 06:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Sox payroll for 2013 (including arb and pre-arb estimates) is currently ~$130M. They still have $40M to work with before they get up the projected pre-trade payroll. I think it looks more likely now that the Sox won't acquire any top-line talent this offseason, but they will have payroll room to acquire top-line talent during the season or next offseason if any come available.

Greinke and Hamilton are the only top-line players on the free agent market, and Greinke's contract is definitely well above what I'd want to pay him. The trade market has so far appeared quite inhospitable for teams looking to add present talent. Perhaps, as has been argued here, the Sox should have been in on Hamilton. Based on the salaries rumored so far, I think they should have been. We'll see if that's where the market ends up, and obviously the risk with Hamilton are myriad.

I'm still hopeful that the Sox have something super cool left to line up on the trade market. But less hopeful than I was before the price of James Shields and Shin-Soo Choo turned out to be an MLB top 10 prospect apiece.

13. RJ in TO posted on December 12, 2012 at 06:07 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I like Marcum a lot personally. If he can be landed on a one or two year deal I'd be all for it.

Marcum was an absolute pleasure to watch when healthy, during his time with the Jays.

14. villageidiom posted on December 12, 2012 at 06:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

They're managing to blow the entire savings from the LA deal and acquire NO top-line talent.

On this date in 2000, they had already signed Frank Castillo and Hideo Nomo. They had not yet signed Manny Ramirez.

Let's judge uselessness at the proper time.

15. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! posted on December 13, 2012 at 11:40 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Let's not go speaking ill of 2001 Hideo Nomo.

16. Nasty Nate posted on December 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Supposedly Dempster close to signing. That will probably be the last substantial signing of the off-season.

17. jmurph posted on December 13, 2012 at 11:54 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

On this date in 2000, they had already signed Frank Castillo and Hideo Nomo. They had not yet signed Manny Ramirez.

This is a completely fair point, but there is (obviously) not a Manny Ramirez on the market this year.

I think a lot of these deals (and rumored deals, meaning Dempster) make sense in isolation, but I hold out hope, like the rest of you guys, that there is something bigger on the horizon. It's a bit uninspiring so far.

18. Nasty Nate posted on December 13, 2012 at 11:59 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

This is a completely fair point, but there is (obviously) not a Manny Ramirez on the market this year.

... I hold out hope, like the rest of you guys, that there is something bigger on the horizon.

If we acknowledge the first point, we pretty much have to extend the horizon to mid-season or next off-season.

19. tfbg9 posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lester Buchholz Lackey Dempster Dubront Morales and maybe Aceves...can they be, as a group, average? Am I forgetting someone?

20. karlmagnus posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:23 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Just looked at those projections. Orioles 73-89 is far too pessimistic with Duquette and Showalter; my back of envelope projection is 89-73. Sox look more like 73-89 at present. And if we get Dempster we'll have spent the budget and got nobody as good as 2001 Hideo Nomo, who was a very decent #3 starter, who'd be remembered in Sox lore if all the stars on that team but Manny hadn't got injured.

21. villageidiom posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:27 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This is a completely fair point, but there is (obviously) not a Manny Ramirez on the market this year.

If you'd rather, on this date in prior years, the team was months away from trading for Coco Crisp.

22. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:28 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lester Buchholz Lackey Dempster Dubront Morales and maybe Aceves...can they be, as a group, average? Am I forgetting someone?

Rubby De La Rosa in that 6th/7th/8th starter group.

A huge portion of the Sox projection is riding on Lester/Buchholz/Lackey being, as a group, above average. (CAIRO thinks they will be, projecting 8-9 combined WAR, mostly from Buchholz and Lester.)

23. Nasty Nate posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lester Buchholz Lackey Dempster Dubront Morales and maybe Aceves...can they be, as a group, average? Am I forgetting someone?

De La Rosa could get some starts; maybe even Webster.

24. jmurph posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:34 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lester Buchholz Lackey Dempster Dubront Morales and maybe Aceves...can they be, as a group, average? Am I forgetting someone?

I've kind of been forgetting we have to convince ourselves to pull for Lackey again this year.

25. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Lester Buchholz Lackey Dempster Dubront Morales and maybe Aceves...can they be, as a group, average? Am I forgetting someone?

de la Rosa is a bit of a wild card. It's not entirely clear to me where he slots in for 2013 (maybe he doesn't). I think they CAN be a lot better than average. Lester and Buchholz are quite capable of throwing up true Ace-caliber seasons. The problem is that I don't think there is a sure thing (as much as any pitcher is a sure thing). There isn't anyone on that list that I can't see going pffft.

26. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

What strikes me about the 2013 Red Sox is that the season hinges heavily not on the new guys, but on the old guys not sucking. For all the maneuvering if Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury can't return to near-star level performances and stay healthy in the process there will be no meaningful September baseball. More optimistically if those players do play well and stay in the lineup they should be expected to be competitive.

27. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:50 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Alex Speier reports the Sox and Dempster are negotiating a 2-year deal. Something like 2/26 to 2/28 seems reasonable.

28. Famous Original Joe C posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:52 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Orioles 73-89 is far too pessimistic with Duquette and Showalter; my back of envelope projection is 89-73.

There's like a 15% chance that karlmagnus actually is Duquette, right? Like, I'm not saying it's likely or anything, but it wouldn't totally shock me either.

29. Famous Original Joe C posted on December 13, 2012 at 12:55 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

And if we get Dempster we'll have spent the budget and got nobody as good as 2001 Hideo Nomo

Nomo, 2001: 198 IP, 100 ERA+
Dempster, avg last three seasons: 197 IP, 102 ERA+

30. karlmagnus posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:18 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Nomo was much younger than Dempster, not likely to decline. This lot have always tended to pay first or second class prices for third or fourth class talent, and Dempster, when Anibal is available, would be an example of this (as is Victorino for Hamilton, if Hamilton is available for 3-4 or even 5 years.)

And no alas I've never met Duquette, though it would be fun to do so. It's that having watched him in action in the 90s and again recently, I find his approach attractive and think he's really pretty good, with fewer ugly distortions and PR-related decisions than the current regime or even Theo (the distortions are I suspect Lucchino.)

31. Nasty Nate posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:28 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This lot have always tended to pay first or second class prices...

I think we should call the pope to investigate, because it sounds like a miracle for broke owners with low payrolls to pay first and second class prices.

32. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Quickie regressed WAR projection has Dempster at +26 runs above replacement. On a two-year deal, I don't see much to complain about.

(Other than that I'd like a pony, of course.)

33. Famous Original Joe C posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:38 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Nomo was much younger than Dempster, not likely to decline.

He's three years younger than Nomo was (you can call that "much" if you like), and came in with a significantly worse recent track record. Dempster's K rate hasn't dropped and his peripherals steady for several years. He's actually a very similar signing to Nomo in some ways.

34. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The 2001 Red Sox are a weird team to choose as an example of not paying "first or second class prices." Some highlights from that roster:

(Note that the average MLB salary was about 2/3 of what it is today, and league average free agents earned in the range of $6M.)

-0.3 WAR, $6.3M - Mike Lansing (age 33)
0.3 WAR, $7M - Dante Bichette (age 37)
-0.8 WAR, $4.6M - Troy O'Leary (age 31)
0.9 WAR, $7.3M - Carl Everett (age 30)

This is the same club that decided that pure replacement level Shea Hillenbrand deserved a full-time job at third base.

I mean, I like Duquette. But by far the two worst seasons of his general managership were 2000 and 2001, where he failed miserably to surround some of the greatest core talent in Red Sox history with even vaguely acceptable complementary talent. And he certainly didn't refrain from paying well above retail for those guys, either.

35. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide posted on December 13, 2012 at 01:54 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Also James Loney is their first-baseman...

Loney was pretty terrible last year, but he was perfectly cromulent the previous 4 years (104 OPS+) and is only 29. Pena last year hit 94. I figure 1B will likely be a push or a slight upgrade.

36. Nasty Nate posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:12 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Loney was pretty terrible last year, but he was perfectly cromulent the previous 4 years (104 OPS+) and is only 29. Pena last year hit 94. I figure 1B will likely be a push or a slight upgrade.

I was more comparing him to the other 1B in the division. I assume that he projects to be the worst by far (using E.E. for Toronto, Davis for Baltimore, and Napoli for Boston).

37. tfbg9 posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"and Dempster, when Anibal is available, would be an example of this"

post #30 by km, and various others, explained?:

From bbref., Anibal Sanchez's page:

January 3, 2001: Signed by the Boston Red Sox as an amateur free agent.

Gee...now who was the GM in January, 2001?

38. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It is a bit frustrating to see the Sox adding so many 'get-me-over' pieces. Victorino, Dempster, Ross, Gomes, Napoli are all not part of the solution for 2015. Ortiz will more than likely be done then. Ellsbury, may or may not be on the team. Pedroia should still be above average at 2nd, but they tend not to age well. There is just not much on the team to get excited about for future years to come.

39. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:31 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It is a bit frustrating to see the Sox adding so many 'get-me-over' pieces. Victorino, Dempster, Ross, Gomes, Napoli are all not part of the solution for 2015

Who would be likely to be part of the solution for 2015 that is out there? I'll take Hamilton but other than that there isn't anyone I'm that geared up for. Sanchez maybe because of his age but let's not overstate what he is, a durable, low 100s ERA+. That's pretty good and it's also basically what Matt Clement was prior to 2005 (Clement was a year older).

Other than those guys there is no one on the market that looks likely to be a contributor to the 2015 team. I'd have stayed away from Greinke and beyond that it's an uninspiring FA market.

40. dave h posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The problem is that next year's FA market is also uninspiring, and I don't know that it's likely to change anytime soon. Which makes it substantially less valuable to have a boatload of money available to spend.

41. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee posted on December 13, 2012 at 02:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I find his approach attractive and think he's really pretty good, with fewer ugly distortions and PR-related decisions than the current regime or even Theo

You have a very selective memory about the Duquette years. If anything, Duquette was worse on PR stuff. Those were some pretty miserable teams.

42. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:00 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

There is just not much on the team to get excited about for future years to come.

There isn't much on the team now, but the Red Sox have plenty of players in the minors (Bogaerts/Bradley/Barnes/De La Rosa/Webster/Cecchini/other) who should either be ready to contribute by then or can be dealt for someone who will. The short-term deals suggest to me that the Red Sox actually believe in this current crop of prospects.

43. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:03 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Apparently the Angels have made their move for Hamilton and are likely to sign him. I'm guessing this leaves little chance of a bargain four-year deal.

44. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:08 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

There is just not much on the team to get excited about for future years to come.

Well, Pedroia should still be a good player at 31 in 2015, likewise Ellsbury and Lester, and Buchholz will be 30. Those aren't graybeards who will have no value in the future. Lester and Ellsbury would require re-signing, but surely the Red Sox can accomplish that if they want them.

The future of the Sox, though, does rest on the next generation coming in and forming a new core. To ellsbury's list above, I'd add Middlebrooks (26 in 2015), Lavarnway (27), Doubront (27), and Tazawa (29). The Sox had a few relatively fallow years in the farm at the end of the last decade, compared to the generation currently in AA, but they do have solid young complementary talent (some with real upside) on the major league roster as well.

45. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 03:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The problem is that next year's FA market is also uninspiring, and I don't know that it's likely to change anytime soon. Which makes it substantially less valuable to have a boatload of money available to spend.

They won't, at least not next year. Pretty much everyone on the Red Sox roster other than Jacoby Ellsbury is locked in for 2014. There's an option on Lester's contract that will be picked up, barring a disaster. With the luxury tax limit rising by over $10M, the Sox should have the payroll flexibility for 2014 to add another star level player, but they won't have a boatload of money anymore. (And if Cherington has done his job this offseason, they also shouldn't have too many holes to fill.)

The boatload of money comes ashore again in 2015.

46. Dale Sams posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:03 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The problem is that next year's FA market is also uninspiring, and I don't know that it's likely to change anytime soon. Which makes it substantially less valuable to have a boatload of money available to spend.

And the FAs that are inspiring, the Sox don't seem interested in breaking the bank for out of fear.

47. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:21 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't know if it's Hamilton signing or Dempster or just general blah but I'm in a really bad mood about this team right now. If we had simply not replaced Theo Epstein when he left and the Sox did nothing but pick up options would they be in better shape today than they actually are?

Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Youkilis, Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks (figure he's the DH with Ortiz not re-signed)

vs.

Napoli?, Pedroia, Iglesias, Middlebrooks, Kalish, Ellsbury, Victorino, Saltalamacchia, Ortiz

I see downgrades at 1st, short and left with no obvious upgrades. If someone wants to talk me off the ledge I'd be grateful.

EDIT: On the mound the big move is Beckett for Dempster (wash at best).

48. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If we had simply not replaced Theo Epstein when he left and the Sox did nothing but pick up options would they be in better shape today than they actually are?

Well, the 2011-2012 offseason was a humongous bag of ####. If you set your baseline at October 1, 2011, then I think a mostly negative evaluation is called for. The Sox were clearly better before they traded away Lowrie and Reddick for relief pitchers and converted an excellent reliever into probably injured lottery ticket. The Sox were clearly better before all of their good players (other than Papi) had bad seasons in 2012. If we're evaluating Cherington overall, we have to account for that, and it's hard to be terribly positive about his reign.

In my own feelings, I've accepted the 2011-2012 shitshow, and I'm starting with the Punto Trade as my baseline. I think the Sox are slightly better than they'd be for 2013 if they hadn't done the Punto trade, and they're clearly in better shape for 2014-2018.

(Also, DH is a pretty huge downgrade.)

(Also, the Sox could have made Aviles their shortstop if they'd wanted. They chose not to, because he sucks. Iglesias sucks, too, but I don't think that's a significant downgrade for 2013. I also still hope for a better shortstop than Iglesias.)

49. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Is the Punto Trade "The Trade"? Damn I like that. I'll agree with everything in the sentence that follows that and good point about DH.

50. karlmagnus posted on December 13, 2012 at 04:42 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This team is now a pile of rubbish, but everyone's short -- so they can redeem themselves by signing Anibal for a long but not too expensive deal. Length is fine with him, so long as the $$$ don't go too high. 6/70 would be fine, but 7/85 or even 9/100 would be tolerable. Yes, if Anibal goers for more than 100 he's too expensive, but you can get him with length.

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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)

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