Saturday, May 18, 2013
Bradford: Could this be the smartest Red Sox team since ‘07?
(www.weei.com)
Using the Bradford–Binet Intelligence Test…uhh, no.
Read More...The Gomes persona might offer the best evidence of an ‘07 dynamic within these Red Sox.
There might be some frustration for fans who choose to define success and failure by pure numbers with the outfielder hitting .183 with a .643 OPS. Intangibles aside, it certainly would behoove the Red Sox to get Gomes’ digits up a bit. But something as simple of managing to hit a ball in the air when his team needed it the most, as was the case in 10th ...
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< 1 2 3 4 5 >Yes. Because there has been nothing in 150 years of major league history that shows that it is reasonable to believe that established major leaguers crack under pressure. You're doing a pop psychology "evaluation" of Hamilton and then presuming that he's a robot who might react the way your pop psychology fears he might.
But players who hit to a 135 OPS+ over 3000 PAs don't suddenly crack because their cap has a B on it. I know Red Sox fans - of which I am one - are arrogant enough to believe this, but it's not true.
And Boston faces the same major league pitching that other teams face, tweaked for schedule. It's not like Hamilton will be having 90% of his PAs against Koufax and Pedro.
Besides the aforementioned fact that Gonzalez served as a vehicle for dumping Crawford and his contract, there's the fact that Gonzalez wasn't hitting home runs in Boston, while Hamilton has the kind of power that will keep hitting some fly ball home runs to left field while also not losing any of his pull field homers in Fenway's deep RF. An astounding number of Hamilton's pulled homers are of the no doubt variety and he tends to average 410+ feet on his home runs to the right of CF.
This not an all or nothing issue. I think players, by virtue of being human, DO respond to external factors every day of their lives. It doesn't mean that a bit of extra stress turns them into quivering balls of jelly who soil themselves the moment they step on the field in certain situations but some players do respond better or worse to those situations. As a rule I wouldn't base my personnel decisions on those things because the impact is going to be small enough not to meaningfully change what the player accomplishes.
There are situations where I would have it on my radar. Greinke's anxiety issues certainly would be something I would consider and I think Hamilton's addiction issues would be something I would want to make sure I had a good handle on. I think Nate's point about the scrutiny Hamilton has been under in his career is an excellent one and one I completely agree with. What would concern me is how drastic change affects (effects?) addicts. I don't know that answer but if I were a team investing $100 million in the guy I'd make damned sure I knew the answer.
Wasn't all of that true of Adrian Gonzalez in San Diego?
There is no doubt in my mind that a large portion of Crawford's struggles in Boston were psychological in nature. He obviously had physical issues too, but once he got into a bad place it was quite clear from watching him that it had snowballed into a major mental situation for him.
Gonzalez never hit the number of no doubt homers that Hamilton hits. And Gonzalez also had a serious shoulder injury between his best power production and his trade to Boston.
Not like we haven't seen this kind of thing before. At the extreme Blass, Steve Trout, Sax, Knoblauch, Sasser, Ankiel all has psychological issues that threatened their careers.
Just looked it up, Hamilton's HRs in 2012 were over 20 feet of true distance further than Gonzalez' in 2010. Damn.
Crawford looked to me like a guy trying to do too much. Rather than just trusting his ability and doing his job he wanted to be perfect. He had a little run of walk off hits in May, 2011 and one thing that struck me is that even allowing for the natural excitement of walk off hits is that the team always seemed a bit more excited when Crawford did something well. I got the impression he was extremely popular within the club. Not sure if you saw the same thing I saw.
Well yuck.
My GOD there is a lot of money in baseball nowadays.
Well, that would make the skeptics look on the Napoli contract more favorably :-)
I don't think it necessarily spoke to popularity among his teammates or anything; I think it was just his teammates seeing the same thing that we were seeing as fans: a supremely talented baseball player who had been playing poorly but now appeared poised to turn things around and play like they guy we all expected (and hoped) to see playing LF in Boston for the next seven years. Of course we now know that it was just a blip on the radar before he went back to looking like someone who hasn't spent his entire adult life being paid to play baseball, never mind one of the best baseball players on the planet.
THIS.
His arm ratings (FG) are positive, for CF. But, I think the issue is that a lot of Victorino's value, at this point, is being a good defensive CF with a league averagish bat.
Take him out of CF, and the bat just doesn't play, unless he's awesome on D, i.e. +15 or better.
The only way he makes sense for the Sox, at that price, is if an Ellsbury trade is imminent.
Edit: half a coke to Nate
Thirded. Or THIS. Or whatever.
Robo says his source is saying 3/37.5
Even then I just have no interest in Victorino. I think he's not going to come close to worth the money. If the Sox want to trade Ellsbury they should trade him and figure out centerfield. Victorino doesn't interest me in the slightest and especially at this price.
Fourthed or QFT'd. Or whatever. Quoted For Truth. Quite ####### True. Whatever.
+6 Bat + 6 Run + 19 Rep + 1 Pos + 3 Def = +34 RAR
An above average hitter, fielder, and runner is easily worth $13M per year. He had a down year in 2012, and there's always risk with a 31-year-old that the downside could have set in suddenly. But a weighted, regressed projection for Victorino looks excellent.
This dude was a full-on All-Star in 2011. If you weight 2011 and 2012 based on commonly accepted practice, he comes out looking very good.
I think that's too strong. B-Ref has him at 2.4 WAR last years, FG at 3.3, and he was a lot better in 2011.
He probably projects around 3 WAR in CF, and that's not awful at $13M, if you net good value from an Ellsbury trade.
Edit: damn I'm slow today. Coke to MCOA.
You're ignoring the fact that he cannot hit right handed pitching though. As currently constructed, the Red Sox lineup presently has one real bat that crushes RHP in Ortiz, and maybe another in Ellsbury if he can channel 2011 (if a Victorino sign doesn't mean trading him too).
#### that, he's Shane ####### Victorino. (I'm not a big Shane Victorino fan, not sure that's coming through). In all seriousness Victorino looks to me like the type of average player who is going to fade quickly. I'll defer to the numbers but I'm not a big fan of this one.
A friend who seems to be spending his day following rumors says Ellsbury for Cliff Lee is being bandied about.
Somehow I'm imagining Brian Cashman saying that in a stage hypnotist's voice :)
I'm hearing Justin Upton for Cliff Lee.
Normal splits for a righty. Victorino is a switch-hitter.
Edit: that sounds more dickish than I meant. Victorino might not have exaggerated splits, but he does have typical RHH splits, which don't help a right-heavy lineup become more balanced.
Three way? Ellsbury to Philly, Lee to AZ, Upton to Boston with the Sox making up money as needed? Not sure that really makes any sense for anyone but rumors are fun.
just messing around: Ellsbury to Arizona, Lee to Boston, Upton to Philly ... with additional prospects from Philly going to Arizona, and the Sox getting some righty-killer platoon guy out of it.
EDIT: And now the report - from Nick Piecoro, excellent Phoenix beat writer - is that Lee/Upton talks aren't happening in the first place. (So you're saying it could be Lee/Ellsbury instead?)
Seriously, that a trade has been "discussed" certainly doesn't mean it's imminent. I can see those pieces being the foundation of something doable. I think you're right that the Sox would have to be the team to make up some ground but that's not impossible. They have the financial and minor league pieces to do some work.
Because of Lee's contract (4 years at $25.6m per), he doesn't have a ton of trade value.
And neither does Ellsbury.
agree completely. I was just having fun with an imaginary 3-way trade idea that combined the Victorino rumors with the Upton-Lee rumors.
The point is this, any concerns that the Sox would have to blow away free agents to get them to come here after the fiasco of 2012 seem to be unfounded so far.
Napoli got a better deal than I expected (and presumably the Rangers expected) but I don't think that had to do with overcoming the Sox' poor season.
Edit: apparently it's a done deal. My approval of this off seasons moves is over.
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