Really hoping that the Victorino stuff is brinksmanship to get Swisher or Hamilton to sign on the dotted line or the prelude to moving Ellsbury.

Dumber-than-Marcels for Victorino and Swisher:

+6 Bat + 6 Run + 19 Rep + 1 Pos + 3 Def = +34 RAR (Victorino)
+15 Bat - 1 Run + 21 Rep - 8 Pos + 1 Def = +28 RAR (Swisher)

An average defensive CF projects 5-10 runs better in right field than average defensive RF. Add that on to Victorino's baserunning, and you have a player basically as good as Nick Swisher if not a little better. He just produces value in a different way.

Obviously Victorino is coming off a bad year. I shouldn't trust the Red Sox talent evaluators to determine that his bad year was a blip. But I also don't trust random internet talent evaluators who tell me the bad year was definitely absolutely a real change in ability. I'd rather just go with the numbers, absent better information.

Oh my god I hate this Victorino signing. Let me predict he will not be worth his salary in even one of the next three seasons.

EDIT: Wait, I believe I committed to being positive if they let Aviles and Sweeney go. So, yay outfield filled with 32 year olds. Yayyyyyy.

Wow, if RDP can write 20 posts in this thread about how Mike Napoli is unlikely to repeat his 2011 performance, how many will he write about how Shane Victorino is unlikely to repeat his 2011 performance?

Guys who were good in 2011 but not-so-good in 2012 is the new market inefficiency! So far: Ellsbury, Napoli, Victorino, Bard, Bailey, and Lester; That means an acquisition of Ricky Romero is just around the corner.

Alex Avila is available.

No he's not. But maybe the Red Sox are hoping to trade four of their six catchers for him.

Wow, if RDP can write 20 posts in this thread about how Mike Napoli is unlikely to repeat his 2011 performance, how many will he write about how Shane Victorino is unlikely to repeat his 2011 performance?

Yeah, the addition of the Flyin' Hawaiin confirms that they're just collecting a bunch of old, 2-3 WAR talent. Frankly I'd rather have taken my chances with Crawford/AGon, and I always liked Beckett.

What is the evidence that Cherington is a good GM, overall? We were so excited about the savings he got from the Dodgers deal but he's pissing a lot of that away on second-tier players.

What is the evidence that Cherington is a good GM, overall? We were so excited about the savings he got from the Dodgers deal but he's pissing a lot of that away on second-tier players.

I think that excitement was based on the money not being pissed away, so...

What is the evidence that Cherington is a good GM, overall? We were so excited about the savings he got from the Dodgers deal but he's pissing a lot of that away on second-tier players.

I'm more concerned that he's filling up all of the projected playing time it opened up with mediocrities than the money he's spending. My presumption was that in dumping 3 nearly $20M/year players they'd be replacing at least one or two of them with some new top end talent making (and hopefully actually earning) similar money. Napoli is a perfect example: taken alone he's a solid signing and a very good complementary player in the lineup if they actually replace Gonzalez with another middle of the order bat. If Napoli is the only decent bat they sign, it paints things in a different light.

There is nothing worse than watching an old team of imported mediocrities lose.

Definitely a Steve Phillips vibe to these moves.

If they go for 2 WAR players throughout the lineup, I think the plan would be to sign at least one of Sanchez and Jackson, no? I guess even then it does leave the Sox in a situation where it's hard to make a substantial upgrade. Count me in on preferring Hamilton even at substantially more money, and I like the Napoli signing.

That's $95 million of contracts handed out to Napoli/Victorino/Gomes/Ross.

Eek.

That's $33 million for 2013 that could have gone a long way towards Hamilton/Greinke.

There is nothing worse than watching an old team of imported mediocrities lose.

Watching SOMEONE ELSE'S old team of imported mediocrities win.

I'd rather pay a huge, long-term contract to Hamilton than waste $38 million on Shane Victorino.

Despite the reservations about signing Hamilton that I expressed earlier I think I'm with you here, although I don't think I'd go so far as to call this a waste.

I confess I didn't see too much of Victorino last season, but he seems like the sort of player who could bounce back from a down year. His plate discipline and baserunning didn't suffer much; certainly not the latter, as he posted a career high in steals while maintaining his usual excellent success rate.

There seem to be reasons for some guarded optimism with this guy. The 'meh' feeling I'm getting is related to the perceived need to acquire at least one excellent player this winter--with the corner outfield being the most obvious position at which to do so--and it doesn't look like that's likely to happen now unless there's a significant trade in the works. There's little to get upset about when looking at this signing in isolation, but it's definitely uninspiring when taken in context.

Expectation, you cold b*tch.

The 'waste' comment is related to the fact that our last corner outfielder who theoretically provided a lot of his value from defense and baserunning didn't exactly work out so well. Yes, I'm aware this is somewhat irrational.

That Victorino signing really took a lot of the steam out of this off season for me. I really don't like this move. I just don't see Victorino as a player you rush to sign. Napoli is the big power bat out there other than Hamilton and be fits the roster beautifully, the Sox really needed him. Victorino just makes no sense. He doesn't fit the roster and he doesn't really bring anything special to the club. This is exactly the type of move I didn't want. Kalish is probably a downgrade but I'd be much more interested in finding out if Kalish can play than in seeing what Victorino can do.

The curse of the Sweeney.

Well he hits a lot of triples. Maybe this is their cunning plan. Get heaps of guys to hit balls into the triangle!

I just don't see Victorino as a player you rush to sign. Napoli is the big power bat out there other than Hamilton and be fits the roster beautifully, the Sox really needed him. Victorino just makes no sense. He doesn't fit the roster and he doesn't really bring anything special to the club. This is exactly the type of move I didn't want.

This is part of the "context" I was talking about in #214. I bet I'd like this signing a lot more if it had happened in late January, after a bunch of other stuff had happened in the market. I share your befuddlement regarding what the goldang hurry was. On the other hand, it's still early December. We'll see...

Kalish is probably a downgrade but I'd be much more interested in finding out if Kalish can play than in seeing what Victorino can do.

I reckon Kalish will get plenty of opportunities if he shows something in spring training. If he proves he belongs at the major league level (I'm not talking a breakout season here, just decent), it's not even that hard to imagine a set of circumstances where he gets the most PAs of any Boston outfielder in 2013.

Jonny Gomes is the short side of a LF platoon, not the long side. Ellsbury's health seems to be a binary proposition: either he's playing every day or he's out for months. Victorino's been pretty durable, but maybe he sits against a RHP once or twice a week if he scuffles against them.

I don't know that a lot of playing time for Ryan Kalish with the big club is a good sign for the team's prospects next year, but the present roster is hardly one that leaves him on the outside looking in.

It's an interesting series of developments. If you had players as good as Victorino and Napoli at every position, you'd be great – neither is likely to be a superstar, but if neither collapses, they're good, and good at enough positions wins pennants.

As always, things will boil down to pitching. If the starting rotation is a bunch of dogs in 2013, Victorino or Napoli or Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth aren't going to help much.

I'd rather pay a huge, long-term contract to Hamilton than waste $38 million on Shane Victorino.

One does not preclude the other.

Good Lord, y'all are insufferable. It's December 4. The Victorino signing does not preclude a top-tier OF acquisition. Because it potentially frees up Ellsbury, the Victorino signing makes it easier to trade for pitching.

Good Lord, y'all are insufferable. It's December 4. The Victorino signing does not preclude a top-tier OF acquisition. Because it potentially frees up Ellsbury, the Victorino signing makes it easier to trade for pitching.

Yay. The homegrown fan favorite whose trade value is at a low will be "freed up" so that an expensive old mediocrity can be played.

Good Lord, y'all are insufferable. It's December 4. The Victorino signing does not preclude a top-tier OF acquisition.

I could see them signing, like, Dempster, Lohse and Drew to 3 year, $40MM contracts, and they'll be ready to compete in 2013, without making any long-term, big-money commitments.

We don't *know* that's their plan, of course. But it's one that makes a certain amount of sense--rebuild your team solely through mid-level free agents.

I could see them signing, like, Dempster, Lohse and Drew to 3 year, $40MM contracts, and they'll be ready to compete in 2013, without making any long-term, big-money commitments.

I'd love to see a little projection work to see what this would really do for them. It's interesting, I guess, but I tend to doubt that this is a good strategy.

rebuilding your team through a bunch of >30 year old mid-level FA does not work.

see houston astros 2007 - 2010 (in case you are curious, they are no longer a ML team let alone a baseball team. they are a AAA team playing in an empty ML stadium)

Isn't the problem with Napoli that he's the kind of guy who could be finished as a ballplayer by the end of his contract. As a 1Bman he's got nowhere to fall from his typical season.

@225 see also Mets, whenever. It's useful when you're filling in around stars in order to avoid black holes on your way towards the postseason, and when you want to wave car keys in front of the infant to keep it amused with a few extra wins and until your minor leaguers arrive, but otherwise, yuck-oh.

I've noticed, too, that these guys are available for 3/40 precisely because they rarely, rarely surprise you. A lot of postseasons are gotten to on the backs of a half dozen guys having unexpectedly good seasons. The Todd Zeile's of the world tend not to give those to you.

Something is up. The Red Sox were supposed to announce the signing today, but have not.

Something with the physical?

Something with the physical?

Beer allergy?

Didn't see a thread on this

Apparently Napoli has a Hip problem. LINK

Oh, all they have to do is to enter clever language into his contract that says that if the hip causes him to lose time, he is bound to the Sox in the future at the minimum. That'll fix it.