Thursday, May 23, 2013
Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)
(www.weei.com)
Read More...“I have [former Red Sox CEO] John Harrington’s old office. The day he turned over the reins, he was sitting at the desk and handed me his pen with a warm smile,” Henry wrote in an email.“I still have it. Red ink. I work more of my hours though in my home offices in Florida and in Brookline. But there is nothing like driving into Fenway Park to go to work. I am thankful every day that I get to do that. It’s one big reason why these rumors of a potential sale of the Red Sox are so ...
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1 2 >Offer him six figures. Maybe it will work.
Perhaps this is a quibble rather than a criticism, but I think authors should be careful not to misrepresent in order to appear to strengthen their argument. Reyes is a shortstop who can be expected, if healthy, to hit 30+ doubles and double figures in home runs and triples most seasons. You may expect his slugging % to be between .430-.450 and his ISO between .145-.155. For a shortstop, that represents good power. Over the past 3 years, his high in HRs is 11 (twice), in doubles 37, in triples 16, in ISO .156 and in Slugging .493. And except for slugging and doubles, he has exceeded each of those figures in other seasons, in some significantly more.
I can't think of a player I suspect of using PEDs LESS than Josh Hamilton.
What I want is for Cherington to do the actually difficult thing and build a pennant-quality team by 2014 while also eeping the club in line to be competitive for the long haul. Not spending money is easy. Spending money well is the goal.
I'd like to see the plans of the "fiscal disciplinarians" for an 85-win team in 2013 and a pennant contender in 2014. How do you get there? Or is it just about hope and acceptance if hope fails?
It's not Cherington's job to be a fiscal disciplinarian. His job is to convert money into wins. The beancounters are elsewhere in the organization.
If all goes right, my guess is he may provide 2-3 years of good hitting numbers -- and if you can sign him to a 2-3 year contract, it might be worth the risk in a low-pressure market. He may not settle for that short a contract, though.
That's not "if all goes right" - that's much closer to worst-case scenario of a 7-year deal than best-case scenario.
@#12: sure, there are risks, and sometimes luck goes against you. My concern is the number of red flags Hamilton appears to have.
1. Don't sign anyone.
2. Around July, point out all the players having breakout seasons. Say Boston should have signed all of them.
It's a remarkably simple plan.
I guess my quibble was that if he remains healthy and sober and can handle the pressure, he will likely have more than just 2-3 good seasons in the future.
I'm sick and tired of you caffeine apologists.
Top players with overhyped off-field issues are the new market inefficiency. Josh Hamilton. Zack Greinke. Melky Cabrera (just $16 million over two years from the Jays). It is insane for organizations to not understand this.
It's not just his off-field problems. He's 32 in May and has missed on average 32 games a year the last five years. While it's tempting to say the injuries those years were flukes (e.g. the separated shoulder on the slide into home) I don't think you can just dismiss it out of hand either. Additionally, because of his age it is highly unlikely that he will produce in the next five years what he has produced in the last five.
As with all of these issues, it's not a matter of whether or not you want the guy - everyone is a good deal at the right price. The question is how your maximum bid and the likely market compare. I've been expecting with Hamilton that his market will move toward the top of the Holliday/Crawford range. I don't think I want him at that price.
I'd be concerned about Hamilton's long term health too, but he's likely to be damn good for at least several more seasons, and the Red Sox could probably use some damn good players. If he tanks in the last couple seasons, the only thing it costs the Red Sox is money, and they should have plenty of that available.
Of those, I'd expect Cano and Wright to resign with their current teams. I have absolutely no idea what the Red Sox organization thinks about Ellsbury, and I suspect they're not entirely sure what they think either. For Granderson, I'd be very, very concerned about signing him to a big money deal given his increasing age, declining defense and good but not outstanding offense, and Lincecum would absolutely terrify me, even if he has a good rebound season.
I think this hits the nail on the head. No one really has any clue.
The Red Sox more so than anything else this year, need to make efficient transactions that nudge them closer to 80 to 85 projected wins so that if things break right they can capture a playoff birth.
The issue with acquiring Josh Hamilton, is that I don't expect their to be an efficient transaction available for the Red Sox to make.
I mean, I'm not a fan of Ross either, but if the alternative answer to the RF problem was Gomes... Ugh.
I would have very much liked it if the Jays could have added Gomes. The guy can hit, and would have made a nice part-time DH/part-time OF. He's going to love hitting in Boston.
What sort of money are they reporting for the deal?
I'll be shocked if the Sox plan to make Gomes either (a) a regular or (b) someone who plays more than 25 innings in right field.
The Sox still need a right fielder and they still need 60% of a left fielder.
This new world needs to be recognized and adapted to, which means signing a Hamilton at the top of his true market value and either taking the good years from him and then trading him, or suffering bad years from him and then trading him. Or just keeping him.
Vernon Wells's contract was offloaded, for crying out loud.
Sign, trade for, or call up a bunch of cheap arms who can strike people out. Aside from the top level of relievers, relief pitchers are a crapshoot.
Anyone can give you anything in 60 innings.
If they get Hamilton or an Upton they won't need any more OF's after that.
Andrew Bailey and Junichi Tazawa should be a strong 8th-9th inning pair. Then mix and match Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, Scott Atchison, Franklin Morales, Craig Breslow, and Clayton Mortenson for the remaining jobs.
Ray, I approve of this, but tell me this: If the Sox had kept Crawford, AGon and Beckett...would you still want to sign Hamilton?
Really? I would say the bullpen looks like it should be pretty good. I think there are a lot of good arms out there and one of things the Sox had a ton of success with when Farrell was here before was bullpen construction. Bailey, Bard, Melancon, Tazawa, Miller, Breslow and Mortensen looks like the makings of a solid bullpen. As Ray notes it's a crapshoot out there and what I see are a lot of guys with really good arms who can miss bats. I won't be at all surprised if the Sox have a very good bullpen from that group in 2013.
EDIT: Coke to MCoA. Twice this thread, type slower Mikael.
That's a bit more than I'd like to pay for the lefty-killing side of a platoon, but it's probably well within the range of reasonable.
And I think the possiblity of Bard and Melancon being broken are not infinitesmial. Then throw in Bailey being average. Ugh.
And if all that happens there are still a bunch of guys that I think can contribute. I don't think everyone I mentioned is going to be successful but I think a reasonable split of better than expected/worse than expected from that group builds a decent bullpen. Add in the fact that the Sox have holes virtually everywhere else on the diamond and I think singling out the bullpen is elevating what I think should be one of the lesser concerns.
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