Thursday, May 23, 2013
Demystifying Red Sox Ownership - What Do They Do? (WEEI)
(www.weei.com)
Read More...“I have [former Red Sox CEO] John Harrington’s old office. The day he turned over the reins, he was sitting at the desk and handed me his pen with a warm smile,” Henry wrote in an email.“I still have it. Red ink. I work more of my hours though in my home offices in Florida and in Brookline. But there is nothing like driving into Fenway Park to go to work. I am thankful every day that I get to do that. It’s one big reason why these rumors of a potential sale of the Red Sox are so ...
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Page 2 of 2 pages
< 1 21) All three of the FA deals so far are three years or less. All three guys will be fine this year, probably next year...third year? We'll see. Napoli and Victorino represent a lot of money coming off the books after 2015 - over $27 million.
2) I am very hesitant to judge these moves until the entire off-season is complete. If they trade Ellsbury as a centerpiece of a package that gets the team a frontline starter, then Victorino makes more sense. Ellsbury is walking after next year, anyway- we're going to need a CF after 2013, anyway.
3) That said, this signing is probably not a strong statement on behalf of Kalish, or a statement that Jackie Bradley will be ready during 2013. Kalish may be a secondary part of a trade for frontline help.
The Mets have done this a few times. In the years around 2000, the Mets acquired a lot of decent but not great veterans (Kevin Appier, Todd Zeile, Jeromy Burnitz, Roger Cedeno). A few years later they went into rebuilding mode, and they signed some guys around the same age/money (Mike Cameron, Kaz Matsui, Cliff Floyd). The first time, those decisions were disastrous, because a lot of money was pumped into meh players exactly when the Mets were in win now mode. Being too cheap to sign the high quality players (ARod, Mussina etc) killed the team. The second time, those acquisitions were fine, because the Mets were rebuilding and the meh guys weren't there to win playoff games, they were there just to fill the team's gaping holes for a few years.
My question is what the Red Sox think they're doing: are Napoli/Victorino part of an honest plan to win as many games as possible, or are they just there to edge the team a bit closer to respectability for a little while?
Reds -- Are they really going with Drew Stubbs again? Could they get Homer Bailey (2 years left before FA, Reds have pitching)? Probably not.
Indians -- Lost out on Victorino, but I thought they were shedding salary. Don't have a pitcher that makes any sense. Choo doesn't make any sense.
Mariners -- They've got to do something for Jack Z to keep a job, right? Not a lot of great fits on the ML roster.
Ramgers -- Hard to find a player that makes sense, and it seems to me they'll resign Hamilton.
So yeah, I'm curious to see what this could be if there's actually any substance.
The problem is that they've signed a bunch of players in their 30s who project to 2-4 WAR. And 2-4 WAR players in their 30s are more likely to give you 0-2 WAR than they are 4-6 WAR.
The Red Sox have lost their way.
Supposedly the Reds have offered Bailey to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler, although the teams deny it. But yes, Cincinnati is shopping for a center fielder, and Bailey is available.
Yeah, he's stuck on a likely playoff team for his last 2 years, hitting in front of the best hitter in the world instead of enduring three seasons on a team that is neither building nor contending.
What a shame.
He's super durable. Does everything decently, adds positional flexibility. You need to get to 43 WAR as a team and I expect Napoli and Victorino to average 5-6 between themselves over the next three years. 5-6 war costs $26m on the open market.
Get a bunch of RHH who will provide offense at Fenway, win games at Fenway so the fans want to go there and ticket demand returns, worry about winning on the road or making the playoffs later.
Cano -- nope
Cabrera -- nope
Braun -- nope
Beltre -- oops
Votto -- nope
Zobrist -- good luck
Bautista -- nope
Longoria -- nope
Pujols -- not yet
McCutchen -- nope
Pedroia -- hey, you got 'em
Hamilton -- all it takes is money, probably a lot of it
A Jackson -- nope
Bourn -- well, if you didn't like the Victorino signing ...
Heyward -- nope
Gonzalez -- didn't the Sox have this guy?
Holliday -- an interesting idea, the Cards are creative
Kinsler -- nope
Tulowitzki -- possible but unlikely
Gordon -- nope
Utley -- probably not a 4 WAR player anymore
Headley -- there's a Harvey Korman joke here somewhere
Molina -- nope
Posey -- nope
Granderson -- nope
Prado -- who knew?
Stanton -- nope
27 players, you've got one and you had two others. 13 of the 27 will be under 30 in 2013. Cards, Yankees, Tigers, Rays, Braves, Rangers are (I think) the only teams with two or more. Hamilton and Bourn are the only two freely available.
On the pitching side, there are only 12 pitchers with 12+ WAR over the last 3 years. Josh Johnson was just traded, Dickey might be available in trade. Lee & Halladay were mentioned already. The Phils with those two and Hamels are the only team with 2+. Greinke is not on the list.
Unless you support signing Hamilton for a lot of years and money, what 4+ win players do you expect the Red Sox to acquire? It is quite possible that the FO looked at what's available, decided they didn't want Hamilton and are simply cobbling together the best team from what's available at a non-outrageous price. That might not be the best decision but it would be a perfectly rational one. An interesting question is whether the Sox had the pieces to have pulled off the Marlins trade instead of the Jays -- Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle is a big step up in talent (with risks attached).
Granted, I'm not a Victorino fan although that's not for any rational reason. But of the CFs (and Hunter) available this offseason, he'd have been my last choice. Still, it's a cromulent signing.
I'm a little surprised that his name hasn't surfaced. I guess the Rockies are happy with him (and why not) but when the Sox unloaded all that money in August his name was one of the first I thought of. He fills a need obviously and with money and prospects aplenty the Sox would at least seem like a team that could go after him if the Rox were so inclined to move him.
Is Fowler surplus for them? Who's supposed to play CF for them?
Ellsbury (+ extension), Kalish, Iglesias, de la Rosa for Tulo, Fowler? Is that at all realistic?
Is Helton complete toast, or could he be thrown in to try to start 130 games at 1B? He's only ever been bad in even-numbered years...
Kalish needs to be made a part of a package for an impact player NOW. I'm ready to see the back of Iglesias before his value completely bottoms out, as well. Whoever else has to go with those two (outside of Pedroia, Lester, Buccholz, and Papi) to get something done that's going to excite me, I don't care.
On Victorino, I want badly to believe MCoA's version, but [7] pretty well sums up my entire reaction to the money spent so far in Nashville...
Yes, but he won't have Tommy Hanson to run on, this year (at least not in the same division).
I have little doubt the RedSox are a better team over the next 3 years than they were before the week started.
Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino won't be the cause of a rebouding Redsox. That turn will depend on Lester, Ortiz, Pedrioa and Jacoby playing like Stars again. Clay, Bailey and Bard regaining lost form and Middlebrooks and Kalish showing improvements.
I think the issue is the fans, including BTTF's fans wanted a pony for Christmas, and instead they only got a bigwheels and a tricycle.
I wouldn't lump Victorino and Napoli together at all.
I think the general opinion on Napoli has been pretty positive. Speaking for myself, I am upbeat about the Sox signing Napoli:
--They don't have anyone on the farm likely to take the spot in the near future
--The other free agent 1B aren't too exciting (maybe Swisher at first if you're into that sort of thing)
--Next year's projected FA 1B aren't so swell either
--There are plausible mechanisms for Napoli to be better than what they paid for him (staying healthier and better by playing less C, being a good fit for Fenway).
--Even if he isn't better than what they paid for him, he's a good bet to be the best of what was available (apart from some sort of F'n A trade).
These don't apply as much to Victorino:
--They have a plausible CF prospect wit a 2013/2014 ETA
--There's definitely one, and I'd say a few, better FA OF available now, and that's likely to be true in next year's FA OF class as well
That said, I'm still undecided on the Victorino signing. What I do know is that I view it very differently than the Napoli signing.
Well yeah. But the thing is, there's at least one genuine pony for sale, and the Red Sox have enough money for said pony.
For the record, Victorino has had 10.4 bWar and 13.0 fWAR the past 3 years. He was one of 36 guys to top 12 fWAR.
Sure if you can get said pony at a solid valuation. I'm assuming that SV was signed because the valuations for Hamilton were not efficient.
The sox no longer have a surplus of value on their roster, so they can no longer afford to pay for premium talent (not due to salary but due to production needs).
Don't sign anybody for more than three years. Period.
By Spring Training 2014, you've got a pretty good shot at Bradley and Bogaerts being ready. You put one in CF, the other at SS. If Iglesias looks good this year, you deal with SS next off-season. We're not winning the World Series in 2013, anyway, so let's make sure we're not screwing our chances of winning the World Series in 2015, either...
Hot on the heels of that $/Win pennant.
If they have a big payroll, winning the $/win pennant gets them to the playoffs.
Page 2 of 2 pages
< 1 2You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.