BBTF.org/m/red_sox : red sox - The Red Sox’ search for outfielders is getting more interesting by the day - WEEI

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Anatomy of the Red Sox batting order - WEEI | Rob Bradford

(www.weei.com)

posted 1 day ago by Jim Furtado to red sox, sabermetrics | 5 comment(s)

Interesting stuff.

John Farrell and Torey Lovullo looked down toward the Twins bullpen. They saw some stirring, as Minnesota lefty reliever Brian Duensing had grabbed a ball and tossed it a few times.

Then Duensing sat down. It was then the Red Sox manager and his bench coach knew they had put the right people in the right places.

“It’s a good feeling,” Lovullo said after the Red Sox’ 12-5 win over the Twins Saturday night, “when all the puzzle pieces fit perfectly.”

The puzzle Lovullo ...

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1. Enrico Pallazzo posted on November 08, 2012 at 09:32 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The source suggests the Washington native’s preference would be to play on the West Coast, but the familiarity of Boston would be a drawing card.

Umm. No.

2. zack posted on November 08, 2012 at 09:45 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The source suggests the Washington native’s preference would be to play on the West Coast, but the familiarity of Boston would be a drawing card.

54'40" or fight!

3. Textbook Editor posted on November 08, 2012 at 09:59 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Look, there's no harm in signing the guy to a minor league deal or a ML minimum deal loaded with playing time incentives... The only harm would be if he's the *only* plan they have for LF. Sure, he may be cooked, but with the $ they have, I'd take a $400k flyer on him to see what (if anything) he may have left in the tank. If he has a nice bounce-back year you can always flip him in July.

I get that Mets fans think/know he's toast; I just don't see the harm in having him be one of the cheap options we look at in ST.

4. AROM posted on November 08, 2012 at 10:01 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

The source suggests the Washington native’s preference would be to play on the West Coast

I thought if Jason Bay made it on South Park he'd be drawn with a flapping head and beady eyes, eh?

5. Jim Furtado

posted on November 08, 2012 at 10:52 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Textbook Editor, I agree he shouldn't be the only plan. I look at it similarly to what the Sox did in 2003 when they brought in Ortiz, Millar, and Giambi. Bring in a few guys for first base and left field who may be underrated but who have potential to exceed expectations and go from there.

6. Nasty Nate posted on November 08, 2012 at 10:57 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Textbook Editor, I agree he shouldn't be the only plan. I look at it similarly to what the Sox did in 2003 when they brought in Ortiz, Millar, and Giambi. Bring in a few guys for first base and left field who may be underrated but who have potential to exceed expectations and go from there.

I agree, but they also have RF to fill. So I am hoping that they fill at least one of those 3 spots with a dependably good player.

7. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 08, 2012 at 11:10 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Textbook Editor, I agree he shouldn't be the only plan. I look at it similarly to what the Sox did in 2003 when they brought in Ortiz, Millar, and Giambi. Bring in a few guys for first base and left field who may be underrated but who have potential to exceed expectations and go from there.

I would be totally in favor of such a plan, but I don't think Jason Bay makes any sense as part of it.

Numbers from 2000-2002:

109 OPS+ - Ortiz (ages 24-26)
132 OPS+ - Millar (ages 28-30)
123 OPS+ - Giambi (ages 25-27)

Compare to:

90 OPS+ - Bay (ages 31-33)

I'd like the Sox to build depth and go for bargains, but there are 20 guys in AAA I'd rather have than Jason Bay. There's some upside, but the downside is an 80 OPS+ in a corner position with DH-quality defense.

8. Dan posted on November 08, 2012 at 11:35 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Bay did have a .918 OPS against LHP in 2011. Last year he was completely terrible against all pitching, but before that he was a guy who at least looked useful as the short side of a platoon. If you bring him in with the intent of platooning him with Kalish or Nava in LF, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But in such a situation I'd really like to see them sign or trade for at least one dependable bat for the other OF corner and/or for 1B.

9. Jim Furtado

posted on November 08, 2012 at 12:53 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I agree the Sox need to sign one fairly reliable bat for RF. That will require a multi-year contract for significant dollars. They also need to pick up a viable SS and two starting pitchers. With that in mind, I favor, as I mentioned above, bringing in multiple players to fill the voids at 1B and LF. Bay fits that spot perfectly because he's already shown he can succeed here, has the *potential* to be an difference maker, and, based on his contract buyout, should be available at a reduced rate.

10. Textbook Editor posted on November 08, 2012 at 12:58 PM # hit 1 | hit 0

There's some upside, but the downside is an 80 OPS+ in a corner position with DH-quality defense.

The downside is you release him in May and are on the hook for a ML minimum deal... I wouldn't have a very long leash here--just make him one of a half-dozen options you bring to ST.

Of course, he may not want such a deal, so there's that...

11. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

posted on November 08, 2012 at 01:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I get that Mets fans think/know he's toast;

For once this Phillies fan agrees with Mets fans, he sure looked done to me.

I just don't see the harm in having him be one of the cheap options we look at in ST.

Yeah, if you have enough ST locker stalls, why not?

12. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 08, 2012 at 01:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I have no problem with Bay as an NRI, I guess.

Signing Jason Bay as a lottery ticket means you're still short two outfielders.

13. Ray (RDP)

posted on November 08, 2012 at 01:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yeah, Bay is not worth more than an NRI at this point. Frankly I wouldn't even fool around with him for a month in the majors. If he wants to show he can play again, he'd have to do it in the minors first.

14. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius posted on November 08, 2012 at 02:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Local radio says the Red Sox are interested in Masterson and Choo.

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 08, 2012 at 02:21 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

It's from this report by Jon Paul Morosi:

The Boston Red Sox have expressed interest in acquiring right-handed starter Justin Masterson and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Cleveland Indians, major-league sources said.

It’s not clear how advanced the talks are...

Everything after the ellipsis is speculation. This looks like a nothing report. All Morosi knows is that one side of a conversation occured.

Obviously I'd like to get either or both of Masterson and Choo, but the Indians should be trying to retain them over a longer term rather than trade them away.

16. Dock Ellis on Acid

posted on November 08, 2012 at 02:26 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I would rather the Sox use their trade chits to go after Justin Upton instead of Choo/Masterson.

17. Nasty Nate posted on November 08, 2012 at 02:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I've read speculation that the Indians might also be amenable to trading Asdrubal Cabrera, considering that they traded for Aviles and apparently have some SS prospects.

18. Davo Mastroianni posted on November 08, 2012 at 02:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I seem to remember looking at the numbers, and discovering that Jason Bay had enormous Day/Night splits, and (concluding) that his problem was therefore a vision problem.

19. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on November 08, 2012 at 03:05 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I would rather the Sox use their trade chits to go after Justin Upton instead of Choo/Masterson.

I would rather the Sox use their trade chits efficiently. I have absolutely no idea which of many possible trade targets will be priced the most cheaply by their teams, but those are the guys I want. If the price for Upton is Bogaerts+, I'm out. If the price for Choo/Masterson is Brentz+, I'm in. The determining question is the price.

20. Walt Davis posted on November 08, 2012 at 04:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Upton 2010-12: 120 OPS+, 9.2 WAR
Choo 2010-12: 132 OPS+, 10.2 WAR (only 2.5 seasons)

There is the small difference of the 5-year age gap. :-)

Actually Choo looks like an excellent candidate to be the next cliff-diving Bay. Late bloomer, very good but not great numbers, easy to talk yourself into him being good through his early 30s at least. See also Jayson Werth.

21. vivaelpujols posted on November 08, 2012 at 05:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Bay's not *that* bad. According to FanGraphs he was worth 1.4 WAR in 1100 PA with the Mets. Ok that's pretty bad, but his 2010 and 2011 we're decent. Mostly it's last year dragging down his numbers (-.8 WAR in 200 PA, woot) and he was injured and had a .185 BABIP. Some team (certainly not the Red Sox as they have wadage) should give him a shot, at least as a 4th outfielder.

22. charityslave is thinking about baseball posted on November 08, 2012 at 06:24 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The source suggests the Washington native’s preference would be to play on the West Coast

...of Japan.

23. the Hugh Jorgan returns posted on November 08, 2012 at 06:37 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I have no problem with Bay as an NRI, I guess.

Spot on.
If the FO is wasting any more resources and time considering Bay for anything else, then they are p*ssing into the wind. They need to find 2 SP, a half decent SS and 1 good OF at a minimum, this is where they need to focus their time and energy.

24. Jim Furtado

posted on November 08, 2012 at 08:16 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Focus their time and energy? I'm sure it is well within their ability to work on filling all the other positions and signing Bay to a minor deal. Based on Bay's play with the Mets, he's not getting a big, long-term contract. He'll be getting a make-good deal. It a simple process. They make an offer. If he agrees he gets a chance to win a job with the other candidates. If he doesn't, you just move on.

25. Darren

posted on November 08, 2012 at 09:30 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Choo didn't really bloom late--he was already a capable Major Leaguer at 23. I'm more worried about his contact rate being so crappy and his seeming dip in ability to hit the ball hard enough to get hits. I like him, though, and would think he'd be a pretty good acquisition for 1/15. Realistically, though, what can the Indians hope to get for a guy who's on a fair contract and unlikely to sign an extension? They're probably better off keeping him.

Now, if the Sox could swing a deal for Choo, Cabrera, and Masterson, that'd be a big step in the right direction. I'm guessing, though, that that is going to cost a whoooole lot.

26. chris p posted on November 08, 2012 at 09:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Actually Choo looks like an excellent candidate to be the next cliff-diving Bay. Late bloomer, very good but not great numbers, easy to talk yourself into him being good through his early 30s at least. See also Jayson Werth.

wow. bref has some really dire comparables. bernard gilkey, marty cordova, and old friend troy o'leary. choo has always sort of reminded me of bobby abreu. not sure if that's good or bad.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Anatomy of the Red Sox batting order - WEEI | Rob Bradford

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Red Sox Think Factory