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Of the free agent outfielders of the past offseason, Shane Victorino has the most VORP from 2010 to 2012.
Of course, Victorino's playing RF for Boston instead of CF, which will cut into his VORP with the Sox.
I don't think Victorino is a bad signing or a symbol of everything wrong with the Sox' off-season but I don't really see him as a solution.
The Red Sox need a near-CF quality glove in right to handle Fenway. Shane Victorino is a very good offensive player who is also a near-CF quality glove for right field. He makes perfect sense as a fit.
Agree. On paper at least.
And how is his OF arm rated?
the strength is good and the accuracy and release are well above average.
Why is he cited as the symbol of everything that’s wrong with the Red Sox offseason, by people who generally identify as statheads?
Whenever I hear "Victorino", I think of "Beefarino".
Lisa Needs Braces
That's not too different from BJ Upton (.253/.324/.418).
And of course, Upton's actual L/R splits aren't predictive, since he's a RHB instead of a switch-hitter like Victorino.
Upton isn't a 32-year-old on the downhill half of his career.
Is that supposed to be disqualifying?
All platoon splits are predictive. You just need large samples, and in the case of RHB, very large samples.
And if Victorino's age is what you are getting at, why not list that instead of his recent RHP splits?
I don't understand.
And Upton's aren't even close to large enough, so they're not predictive.
It provides context for his more recent numbers, to show that he's trending down.
Today in Classic Primer: Link.
There are reasons to worry about Victorino. He was relatively poor this last season. Sometimes when players have a down season, it’s a sign of more, badder things to come. Usually it isn’t.
If I had to guess I'd guess for old players a 'relatively poor' season portends a cliff dive more often than it does for younger players, and that for guys in skill positions it portends a cliff dive more often than it does for guys at the corners.
There is no trend to explain, and the platoon split numbers wouldn't do that even if a trend existed.
You have it exactly opposite. The plodding 1B/LF/DH/RF with "old player" skills are the guys who collapse early. The good athletes tend to age better.
Certainly to me it would be a much bigger victory than the 2004 ALCS.
Which one was that?
If you want to project something widely divergent from the projection engines, you need your eyes and your knowledge of baseball as support, not the numbers.
Like someone took film of a guy aging and played it at 2x speed.
If so, how does one reconcile that with him stealing a career-high 39 bases?
The speed he was losing was in his bat, not his legs. That'll probably go sooner or later as well, of course.
If you don't agree with my opinion, that's fine.
2) I saw the Phillies in Colorado this year, and this happened.
What am I missing?
I can't wait to plow through the next couple of pages next time I'm taking a dump.
An arcing one-hopper to first from shallow LCF?
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