If the Sox are signing him I think they have to sign him to 3+ years. I'd hate to give up a pick for one year of Michael Bourn. Let's assume this happens AND they let Ellsbury walk. For 2013 you've got;

Ellsbury - LF
Bourn - CF
Pedroia - 2B
Ortiz - DH
Napoli - 1B
Middlebrooks - 3B
Drew - SS
Saltalamacchia - C
Victorino - RF

Then in 2014;

Bourn - CF
Pedroia - 2B
Ortiz - DH
Middlebrooks - 3B
Unknown - 1B (presuming something of meaning is done here to fill the spot)
Lavarnway - C
Victorino - RF
Bradley - LF (his arm can play in RF so maybe that changes)
Iglesias - SS

There's still some room to operate at 1st, short and catcher if needed. If Bogaerts progresses and wins the SS job I can see that being a pretty solid lineup.

The other option is that they deal Ellsbury this spring. Sign Bourn and trade Ellsbury for something, one of the Cardinals 1st base options maybe, and that would be a fairly interesting group.

I really don't like the arrangement of Bourn's production. He's all speed - great defense and baserunning, no power, weak contact skills, not too many walks. With most fast players I think the "once he loses his speed" thing is overblown, since they can improve their other baseball skills and they're generally better athletes than slower players. Bourn lacks other baseball skills, and he needs a .350 BABIP to be an effective hitter. Obviously there's a point at which Bourn is too good to pass up at a certain price, but that price is pretty low for me. And he's a Boras client - someone else is going to go 5/85 before February is over.

I also don't like the giving-up-on-Ellsbury aspect to a prospective Bourn signing. Ellsbury has upside to be a foundational player for a championship team. A rich team can't be planning around not having Ellsbury. He might never be that good again, he might demand too much money, but I'd rather wait and be prepared to give him the big money he could deserve.

I assumed part of the reason Victorino was signed was because he could take over in CF if/when Jacoby leaves.

Maybe. Re-signing Ellsbury is still entirely possible, Victorino will be 33 next year, and Bradley may be ready then, too. I figured they got Victorino because they want someone with CF range playing in right field in Fenway. That Victorino gives them depth in center for the future is useful, but I don't think he's the plan.

I agree with Matt. I think Victorino in center is an "oh ####\" option 3 behind some order of re-signing Ellsbury and Bradley emerging.

I don't think we should assume that just because a player is unsigned late into the baseball winter, his eventual price tag will be a bargain.

Bourn's price will be a bargain, in so much as it will be at all, because he will cost the team that signs him the contract, plus their first round pick (to Atlanta), plus the slot money from that first round pick out of their potential signing pool for draftees.

I agree with Matt. I think Victorino in center is an "oh ####\" option 3 behind some order of re-signing Ellsbury and Bradley emerging.

I don't see why Victorino in CF is scary. All the metrics have him above average the last 3 years.

Even at 34, he should be far from embarassing.

Agreed with @8. Victorino in a big CF park like Denver or Seattle would be questionable, but there's nothing about CF in Fenway that would suggest to me that he couldn't be perfectly cromulent as a CF in Boston.

Is it possible that the pick/slot money is considered (or is) more valuable than Bourn?

I hate, hate, hate the idea of signing Bourn. 2013 is a wash year. If we do great, fine. If we don't, I'm fine with that too. Giving up a pick and the slot money for the likes of Michael Bourn--at any price, for any # of years--is insane to me.

I think Jose meant "oh ####\" not in the sense that Victorino would be terrible out there, but rather Victorino in center means that Ellsbury is gone and Bradley isn't ready yet. That's not the outcome the fans or the club want, even if Victorino is cromulent out there.

Plus they'd still need another near-CF glove to handle right.

Bourn's price will be a bargain, in so much as it will be at all, because he will cost the team that signs him the contract, plus their first round pick (to Atlanta), plus the slot money from that first round pick out of their potential signing pool for draftees.

Which is why there might be some appeal for Boston - the Red Sox first round pick is protected. (Also why the Mets were reportedly trying to get their pick protected.) I don't think that the second-round slot money should be a determining factor, still it makes a difference.

Is it possible that the pick/slot money is considered (or is) more valuable than Bourn?

So far, it's pretty clear that the pick/slot money + the contract request has been too much for most teams. I think Boras will have to come down off of his 5 year/18 mil per demands to account for the pick/slot money.

I really don't like the arrangement of Bourn's production. He's all speed - great defense and baserunning, no power, weak contact skills, not too many walks. With most fast players I think the "once he loses his speed" thing is overblown, since they can improve their other baseball skills and they're generally better athletes than slower players. Bourn lacks other baseball skills

I mentioned in another thread that Bourn's WAR totals on both BBREF and Fangraphs causes me cognitive dissonance.

He has 14.3 WAR (BBREF) the past 3 years, 6th among all OFs
But among the 50 OF with the most War he's 47th in WAR batting runs
In baserunning/DP avoidance he's 1st with 29 - Maybin is 8th with 14 (15 less), Maybin at 8th is closer to Kemp at 37th than he is to Bourn at #1
Bourn is 2nd in WAr fielding runs to Gardner, but here's the real rub-

Bourn's last 3 years were his 27-29 years- 51 Fielding runs, best 3 year marks by the over 30 set? 18, 13, and then under 10

Let's say Bourn next 3 years his the same and has the same WAR baserunning score (which is possible even if he slows)
and drops to 25 WAR runs fielding (a terrific total for an over 30 OF)- he'd lose one WAR a year.

As someone else said, given his batting skills, he's almost certain to lose BABIP as well,

I can't but help seeing him as being a bad for his early 30 years (relative to his late 20s), not as bad bet as someone like Ryan Howard maybe- but everything revolves around his wheels, he's doesn't even have to get old, just banged up a bit

but assuming health in 2013, he'll likely be as good in 2013 as 2010-2012
This is true for all ball players, but he's a guy I think a GM has to sign for as few years as possible

I think Jose meant "oh ####\" not in the sense that Victorino would be terrible out there, but rather Victorino in center means that Ellsbury is gone and Bradley isn't ready yet. That's not the outcome the fans or the club want, even if Victorino is cromulent out there.

Yup. It's not that Victorino is a bad option but a Sox team that is successful in 2014 is not likely to have Shane Victorino as its centerfielder.

I assumed part of the reason Victorino was signed was because he could take over in CF if/when Jacoby leaves.

When Jacoby gets hurt.

Career OPS+ of 90. No thanks. Sabers are putting altogether too much weight on fielding metrics to make that a decent player. Crawford was WAY better (OPS+ of 105, even after his lousy Sox seasons) and that didn't work out too well.

Bourn makes no sense. Of course Victorino made little sense, too. An OF of Victorino, Ells and Gomes/Nava is fine if all are healthy and playing near their ability. I wouldn't bet the house on any of that happening but adding Bourn won't make the boat lighter.

I don't particularly want Michael Bourn but it's hard to believe he wouldn't be a fairly sizable upgrade over Nava/Gomes. At worst Bourn is Nava with a whole bunch of speed offsetting a loss of power. If the price drops heavily on Bourn (and I think in the end it won't, Boras doesn't suck at his job) the Sox probably should consider it. The problem is it's Josh Hamilton at lesser numbers all over again. At some point enough teams will notice that Bourn is a "bargain" that he'll sign something fairly representative of his value.

I don't particularly want Michael Bourn but it's hard to believe he wouldn't be a fairly sizable upgrade over Nava/Gomes.

It would be slightly incoherent to be trying to upgrade over a guy they just brought in.

Maybe I'm misreading the way they are approaching the season but I don't see Gomes as anything other than a platoon partner/backup. I can't imagine the Sox are looking to him for 450-500 PA. Even as a 4th outfielder there are still going to be 300 PA for him if he's productive.

I don't particularly want Michael Bourn but it's hard to believe he wouldn't be a fairly sizable upgrade over Nava/Gomes.

Defensively, sure. On the base paths, probably. At the dish, a Gomes/Nava platoon should beat out Bourn. This doesn't count that, up until last season, Bourn had a sizable platoon split. Add in Bourn's salary and losing a #1, I don't see why the Sox would want him.

I don't see Gomes as anything other than a platoon partner/backup. I can't imagine the Sox are looking to him for 450-500 PA. Even as a 4th outfielder there are still going to be 300 PA for him if he's productive.

Gomes needs a platoon partner. He's Cody Ross without the defense. My guess is they'll platoon him with Nava;, giving Gomes days off against better rhp.

Gomes needs a platoon partner. He's Cody Ross without the defense. My guess is they'll platoon him with Nava;, giving Gomes days off against better rhp.

Gomes is an absolute butcher defensively. Lat time he played close to a full season in the OF (Cincinnati 2010) he was ~-20 with the glove. His bat can't carry his glove except against LHP.

Defensively, sure. On the base paths, probably. At the dish, a Gomes/Nava platoon should beat out Bourn.

Defensively, absolutely. Bourn is an elite defender. On the base paths, probably. At the dish, it's doubtful that any left-handed slap hitter (Bourn) is going to be equivalent to a RH hitter with even moderate wall-ball power to play off the Monster. Bourn is about the last guy who would benefit from Fenway's eccentricities.

Well, the Sox wouldn't lose a #1, they'd lose a #2 (which I think is about #45 or so) so that offsets it a bit. At the plate Bourn's been an awfully steady player and should project as having a better OBP than either Gomes or Nava though by a relatively small amount. Gomes obviously will bring a lot more power and Nava will have more though not by a massive amount. Add in the defense and baserunning and it's hard not to see him as an upgrade. Whether that's worth the money and the pick is open for debate. The sample sizes are small of course but Nava has troublingly disintegrated in both his MLB appearances. It's possible it's random but I think there is a good chance it's a guy being exposed by MLB pitching.

As I said earlier, I think the end result will be a contract that isn't worth the move but it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on the market. If he gets 3/24 or something silly like that it would be disappointing to let that go by the boards.

At the dish, it's doubtful that any left-handed slap hitter (Bourn) is going to be equivalent to a RH hitter with even moderate wall-ball power to play off the Monster. Bourn is about the last guy who would benefit from Fenway's eccentricities.\

Really? Wouldn't a LH slap hitter have a lot of weak/medium flyballs to left that Fenway might turn into doubles?

If they're smart, they'll play Gomes as much as possible at home against lefties when he's in the field. On the road, he can DH a little against lefties and get the rare start in the OF too. I expect Nava to get the bulk of the playing time with Kalish out.

If MC is right above that someone will give Bourn 5/85, I don't think I'd want him and I'm sure the Sox would not. My thoughts were that if he's dropped enough to where the Mets are said to be in the running, he's got to be pretty cheap. How about 3/$55M with an opt out after the first year?

The guy does rely on speed but he had his best ISO of his career last year as well as his best walk rate. And sure, his speed is a big part of his defense, but it's not all of it. Even if his speed falls off a bit, he looks to be adding some old player skills already.

If they're smart, they'll play Gomes as much as possible at home against lefties when he's in the field. On the road, he can DH a little against lefties and get the rare start in the OF too.

While I understand wanting to protect against his defense, he's a 970 ops guy against lhp. He should play everyday against LHP.

At the plate Bourn's been an awfully steady player and should project as having a better OBP than either Gomes or Nava though by a relatively small amount.

If they run the platoon correctly, it would be 350 vs 375 with Gomes/Nava having the advantage on obp.

If they run the platoon correctly, it would be 350 vs 375 with Gomes/Nava having the advantage on obp.

The problem with that thinking is the assumption of exclusivity against the "right" pitcher. Even in a strict platoon situation guys are going to face "wrong" handed pitchers. I'm not as bullish on Nava as others.

While I understand wanting to protect against his defense, he's a 970 ops guy against lhp. He should play everyday against LHP.

That's what I meant.

Also, the draft pick is a non-issue for me. You're talking about pick number forty-something, which on average, is pretty worthless. If the extra cash is only going to help at the margins, usually on guys who are, on average, worthless.

How about 3/$55M with an opt out after the first year?

??? That aint happening.
And Nava getting 400 AB's depresses me. The Leauge figured him out (2nd half 2012: .197/.299/.368). He's gonna suck.

While I understand wanting to protect against his defense, he's a 970 ops guy against lhp. He should play everyday against LHP.

Yes, and should basically never play if a RHP is starting, or if a RH RP comes into the game (especially if you have a lead).

On planning for Ellsbury to leave, I think it's okay. He was great in one season. In three of the past 4 years, Bourn has been better than him, and Bourn is only a year older. If you can lock in Bourn for half (?) what Ellsbury will cost, it's a reasonable tradeoff.

Ryan Kalish will have shoulder surgery and will miss spring training.

??? That aint happening.

Then don't sign him.

And Nava getting 400 AB's depresses me. The Leauge figured him out (2nd half 2012: .197/.299/.368). He's gonna suck.

They figured out he was playing with a bad wrist?

Has this even been suggested now, or is it just a chance for MCoA to trot out an admittedly cool headline?

Also, the draft pick is a non-issue for me. You're talking about pick number forty-something, which on average, is pretty worthless. If the extra cash is only going to help at the margins, usually on guys who are, on average, worthless.

I don't think that's the case. With far fewer comp picks available the Sox 2nd rounder is going to be pretty close to the supplemental round, where they used to pick up guys like Buchholz, Ellsbury, and Masterson. Just because they weren't able to use the extra cap space on their picks in the 1st draft under the new system doesn't mean that their value is nil.

Regardless, I think the impact on Bourn's market shows that teams really do value the picks in the draft, especially with the new system.

(Also, Rickey (#7), the Braves do not get the pick of the team that signs Bourn; they get one Sandwich pick only. The other team's 1st or unprotected 2nd pick simply disappears.)

The Leauge figured him out (2nd half 2012: .197/.299/.368).

That's 110 PA, driven down by a .234 BABIP.

I'm not a Nava fan. He's 30. He has very little power. He's cheap. We'll give him that. He gets on base a bit when there's a righty on the bump. That's about it.

Yes, he's a nice story.

Let's revisit at the ASB. I don't have big expectations.

My vision of the Nava/Gomes platoon is basically that you have a strict platoon on the road, and at home you give most of the starts to Gomes with Nava coming in against tougher RHP. The hope is that (a) Gomes' dead-pull flyball bat will play up in Fenway and (b) Gomes' glove can be partly hidden in front of the monster.

A guy who can "get on base a bit" in the contemporary game is a valuable thing indeed. League average OBP runs about .320. If you get on base 35% of time or more, you're scoring a whole bunch more runs than the average ballplayer.

and at home you give most of the starts to Gomes with Nava coming in against tougher RHP

I don't know why you'd want to do that.

Gomes career vs. RHP is 222/307/424, 93 wRC+, and he's got the worse glove. If Nava can't outproduce that vs. RHP, he's not worth having on the roster.

With Gomes at Fenway you are taking the shot that he can do a bit of what Ross did last year. Ross vs. RHP in his career is not unlike Gomes (.253/.312/.415) but according to Baseball Musings he hit .298/.356/.565 at Fenway vs. RHP last year. It's basically a "be the same hitter but luck into a few balls that hit or go over the Wall" approach.

A guy who can "get on base a bit" in the contemporary game is a valuable thing indeed.

Not so much for a LF'er, if that's the only thing he's good at. And he gets on base a bit only against RHP's. I can't recall, has Nava had some durability issues?
Semantics of course, but I'd say Nava is "worth retaining on the 40 man for the time being" rather than "valuable". YMMV...

What's a good definition, a quick definition, of an average ballplayer? 2.0 WAR per 600 PA's? Something like that?
I'm guessing Nava will have a 2013 that comes in below that. Hope I'm wrong. But so far, in the AL, he's at 1.3 rWAR thru 505 PA's.
And he's on the wrong side of 30.

PS-small sample blah blah blah, but Nava so far has a humongo Fenway/road split: .820/.616

They figured out he was playing with a bad wrist?

A bad wrist last year is not exactly a reason to expect a good "this year" from Nava.

I'd rather see the platoon partner job go to Sweeney. Career .338 OBP, better baserunner, fielder than Nava.
VS. righties he has done: .293 .347 .402...and at 28 he's a marginally better bet to not get worse than Nava.

re: Nava being figured out. Besides the possibility of playing with an injury, we also have to throw in permutations of 'playing outside his zone' for a starting job, trying to will the team out of a death spiral...all that crap. I know the possibility of it is certainly real, cause I saw a seasoned veteran like AGon doing exactly that. Just flailing away at ####. Given his age and his path to the majors, we'll probably never see what Nava's true injury-free stats are...but as part of a platoon, I don't think he's useless.

Agree with 45. Sweeney laps Nava defensively. In a DM/strat/OOTP world the Gomes/Sweeney platoon massively improves the defense by playing Gomes LF/Victo RF against LHP and Victo LF/Sweeney RF vs RHP (not sure if the CW on Victo's arm is as bad as I think it is or if I'm unfairly discounting his throwing due to a near-Ibanez level of gif/youtube blooper reel throws).

We also forget that Sweeney basically carried the Sox OF offensively in April 2012.

Sweeney hit well last season, before suffering the concussion.

Sweeney hit .083 .185 .167 in the second half. He's gonna suck.

Sweeney hit well last season, before suffering the concussion.

A concussion last year is not exactly a reason to expect a good "this year" from Sweeney. (Edit: Neither do a broken toe or a self-inflicted broken pinky.)

What's a good definition, a quick definition, of an average ballplayer? 2.0 WAR per 600 PA's? Something like that?
I'm guessing Nava will have a 2013 that comes in below that. Hope I'm wrong. But so far, in the AL, he's at 1.3 rWAR thru 505 PA's.
And he's on the wrong side of 30.

What's a good definition, a quick definition, of an average ballplayer? 2.0 WAR per 600 PA's? Something like that?
I'm guessing Sweeney will have a 2013 that comes in below that. Hope I'm wrong. But over the past 3 years, in the AL, he's at 1.4 WAR thru 849 PA's.

We also forget that Sweeney basically carried the Sox OF offensively in April 2012.

He put up a .373 .394 .567 line in 71 PAs in March/April. Nava carried the offense from May 10 to June 24, with a .339 .452 .517 line in 147 PAs.

All joking aside, I bet that Sweeney and Nava will duke it out for the platoon LF role. Sweeney's younger, more athletic, and has the prospect pedigree. The one big advantage that Nava has is that the big knock against him in the past couple years has been his inability to hit lefties, which makes him better, rather than worse, for a platoon job. I hope the Sox make the right choice in who they give the job to.