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Rizzo already projects as a similar player just two years later for league minimum salary. That trade is clearly a disaster, rather than the laughable steal by the Red Sox that all of the non Red Sox fans on BTF declared it to be at the time.
The difference is this is a losing team with a $150M payroll, not a $70M payroll. For $150M, you'd like to have at least a few elite talents locked up long term.
Cmon, it's too early for that kind of certainty. And evaluating that trade only starting now ignores the 2011 season - in which Gonazlez provided way more value than the pieces sent to SD.
He's not back on the field now. He's going to miss Opening Day. They're hoping he'll be back some time in April, but we'll see. Citing a107 OPS+ over all of 125 PA as data that he's back to normal is also pretty silly, especially given that it came on the strength of a .200 ISO, which is something absolutely no one expects Crawford to do over a significant sample.
Teams that win 74 pythagorean games don't typically make the playoffs the next year, and I'd be surprised if this were such a team. It's not a young team. And as Darren's numbers above show, the new players improve over the replacements by 2-3 wins. Okay, Ellsbury/Lester/Bucholz should improve, but a lot would have to go right for this team to make the playoffs.
There is a bit of a category error here, however. Darren was not comparing 2012 performance of traded players to 2013 projections for new players. The new players improve over the 2013 projections for the traded players by a little bit.
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