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Imagine if the Expos and the Red Sox decided they wanted Pedro Martinez as a closer. Holy crap the numbers he would have put up. But he also would have been less valuable. This isn't very hard.
Making things more difficult, I'm not sure Cincinnati could count on Chapman immediately going back to being a lights-out reliever if he failed as a starter, which could turn 2013 into something of a lost year for him.
the Reds are at a spot where they'd certainly like to avoid giving 8-12 starts to a guy to find out.
As opposed to the typical good, consistent, durable 20-year-old starters?
Even if the odds are 25% he succeeds as a SP, and 75% he washes out of baseball in 2 years, they should try. Relievers are so volatile, and have such a short shelf life, that they have very little value.
Relievers are so volatile, and have such a short shelf life, that they have very little value.
Snapper essentially thinks all relievers are failed starters with intrinsically less talent with, "If they weren't why wouldn't they be starting?" as seemingly his only real justification. Curiously that Ray is totally onboard with this doesn't give him pause.
I think this too...except for Hoyt Wilhelm who could have been a great starter. I can't think of a single other reliever who wasn't either a failure or really brittle as a starter. I guess Eckersley wasn't a terrible starter when he was converted but he wasn't great any more either.
Forgive me if, 5 months removed from seeing a 35 y.o. Fernando Rodney throw up one of the greatest closing seasons of all time, one year after 35 y.o. Kyle Freaking Farnsworth was an excellent closer (173 ERA+) for the same team, I don't think there's anything particularly rare or scarce about the ability to succeed as a 1-inning RP.
Quick snapper, who is next year's Fernando Rodney?
As a reliever, his expected career is much shorter.
The topic is covered extensively in the recent Rivera retirement threads if you are actually interested.
The two other recent high profile/velocity reliever/closer-to-starter cases, Neftali Feliz and Joba Chamberlain, don't necessarily have any sort of definitive "lesson" to be learned
That's actually already dialed a notch back from his opinions in the Rivera threads where volatility and shelf life are unquestionably(and perhaps to a unique level) not an issue. Snapper essentially thinks all relievers are failed starters with intrinsically less talent with, "If they weren't why wouldn't they be starting?" as seemingly his only real justification. Curiously that Ray is totally onboard with this doesn't give him pause.
Why would The Easiest Pitching Role Ever that any competent starter could pull off shorten their career?
If Chapman can make it as a SP, he has a really good chance of being an excellent player for 10 years. As a reliever, his expected career is much shorter.
It's easier to perform at a higher level, but it also has a tendency to shred arms.
Is this conventional stathead wisdom that I missed? I have never heard this, ever.
I'm with Snapper and Ray? Not all are failed starters of course, but I fully expect that an average starter major league starter put into a closers role would almost instantly be the class of the league.
OTOH, CIN beat their pythag by about 6 games last year, and having a lights-out closer is one of the most important factors to beating your pythag. OTGH, although very good, Aroldis wasn't exactly lights out last year...
Still, would almost rather see CIN keep him in the bullpen, just to see if that ridiculous pythag beat is repeatable.
A lot of people seem to think we don't have any real idea what reliever advantage is but that it is simply gigantic apparently. The research says 17%. Large but nothing that supports Snapper or Rays or even your lesser claim here.
I can't believe anybody who wants to see the Reds suceed think it's a better idea to keep him in the bullpen.
He wasn't lights out last year? You are like, joking, right? I mean it wasn't '12 Kimbrel or '03 Gagne, but that is setting the bar quite high and he was probably right below that tier.
Chapman has zero GS in MLB. How exactly did he "fail"?
The 17% is the adjustment you would make to compare the players performance against the average.
Well sure and your claim was an average starter should be fully expected to be a top closer in that role. 17% doesn't really do that and you seem to be making the mistake I'm complaining about with others; you are applying the 17% then coming up with things I guess you think tango didn't consider to assume it is really even more.
Not entirely true. The Reds surprisingly found themselves in contention in 2010, so they called him up in late August to help in the bullpen. Had they not been in contention it's unlikely they would have tinkered with his development as a starter. He wasn't coming up against an innings limit.
The Reds' mistake was not recommitting to Chapman in the rotation in 2011. They had six other starters, but all were disappointments save for Cueto.
Good starters are almost NEVER transitioned to the pen barring injury.
Mostly, I was trying to ward off the "but he had five blown saves and a loss last year" comment by qualifying my "lights-out closer" remark.
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