I've seen Niese pitch for the Mets a couple of times and was generally impressed. I'd love to have him on the Yankees.

Having said that, if Myers were a Yankee prospect I'd be hoping for a much better haul that Niese alone, and would be fairly disappointed if that's all he fetched in return.

He has struggled to prevent runs at a better than replacement level rate in two of his three major league seasons. I think he's somewhat better than that, but he has in no way established a high level of run prevention ability.

Now we're going to get into semantics as to what it means to prevent runs and who bears responsibility for what. Suffice it to say I think that the component based metrics are better. The other way leads you to the conclusion that a pitcher who had a K/9 rate of 7.9, a BB/9 rate of 2.5 and a HR/9 rate of 0.8 (like Jon Niese in 2011) was below average at run prevention. That's fine if you want to make that case, and you're right in a strict sense, but I just don't think it's a very meaningful point, at least on a going forward basis.

I like Niese more than the consensus here seems to be but 2-4 all star teams seems crazy to me.

The other way leads you to the conclusion that a pitcher who had a K/9 rate of 7.9, a BB/9 rate of 2.5 and a HR/9 rate of 0.8 (like Jon Niese in 2011) was below average at run prevention.

He was! He gave up shitloads of hits. He failed to strand runners he allowed to get on base. I think it's probably wrong to say he was replacement level, but I don't buy for a second that a guy with an 83 ERA+ should be immediatley evaluated as a league average pitcher because FIP says so.

Pitchers differ significantly in ability to prevent hits on balls in play, and ability to strand runners with situational pitching. Assuming those abilities away because they're hard to measure is bad analysis.

He just got a contract with a lower AAV last year.

And MLB got a dump truck full of money since then.

C'mon - do you think teams were ignorant about the future of baseball economics 12 months ago?

I would guess that his contract has neutral to slightly negative trade value. We will have a better sense once the FA pitchers sign. FWIW, Peavy got a worse deal than what remains on Buerhle's.

How do people think Niese compares to Trevor Cahill at this point last year? Cahill had a similar contract to Niese (4 years plus two option years, though Cahill's was a bit pricier), and he netted BA's #26 prospect.

Pitchers differ significantly in ability to prevent hits on balls in play, and ability to strand runners with situational pitching. Assuming those abilities away because they're hard to measure is bad analysis.

I'm not assuming those abilities away just because they're hard to measure. I'm assuming those abilities away because they are hard to measure, perceived differences in those abilities are more likely than not to be noise and because Niese just had a season in which he did the things well which he previously is alleged to have not done well. If the explanation for that is a choice between "He figured out the magic" and "There was no magic to figure out in the first place", I'll take the latter explanation. Of course, the former explanation would be a stronger argument for Niese in the future.

If the explanation for that is a choice between "He figured out the magic" and "There was no magic to figure out in the first place", I'll take the latter explanation. Of course, the former explanation would be a stronger argument for Niese in the future.

There's also Door #3: He got lucky for a year.

I think the best estimate of Niese's hit prevention ability is a weighted, regressed average of his career numbers to date. I'd guess he'd be projected in the range of a .310 BABIP. Niese's BABIP between 2011-2012 - .308. So I stand by my Jason Vargas / Ivan Nova / Homer Bailey comp. He's an averageish, probably slightly below average starting pitcher.

Projecting baseball players isn't about either/or. It's about both/and, properly weighted. Neither 2010 nor 2011 nor 2012 is sufficient evidence to demonstrate the talent Jon Niese. 2012 wasn't the season where he "figured it out" or "got lucky" or any of those, and neither was 2011. All of his baseball appearances are snapshots in time, with error built in, and we put them together to get the best composite projection we can.

There's also Door #3: He got lucky for a year.

That's fine. There's also: He was unlucky for the two previous years. I think attributing poor performance in certain areas in two years to lack of skill and then good performance in those same areas in a third year to luck, rather than increased skill, is really just a strained attempt to explain the data in a way that supports your prior opinion.

That's fine. There's also: He was unlucky for the two previous years.

Sure, that's possible too.

None of it adds up to Niese being a "pitcher with an established level of performance", though, as you said in #140.

None of it adds up to Niese being a "pitcher with an established level of performance", though, as you said in #140.

His peripherals are actually quite consistent from 2010-2012
what's not consistent is his BABIP/strand rate...

lets talk Brandon Morrow

2010: 10.9 k/9, 2.7 k/bb, good HR rate, yet somehow had an ERA+ of 93- a .344 BABIP will do that to you

2011: drops that BABIP a good 40 points, Ks over 10/9 again and raises his K/bb to 2.94- and his ERA+ gets WORSE, to 90???? batters hit .288/.366/.523 against him with RISP

2012: K rate plummets from over 10 to under 8, and yet has a career bets ERA+ of 144- BABIP of .253, held batters to a .182/.263/.232 line with runners on...

who is the real Brandon Morrow?

who is the real Brandon Morrow?

Nobody knows. As a Jays fan I certainly have my hopes as to what kind of pitcher Brandon Morrow is. But one thing he's not is a pitcher with an established level of performance.

I've seen Niese pitch for the Mets a couple of times and was generally impressed.

I've seen him pitch a couple of times and been impressed, I've also seen him pitch a couple of times and cringed

He could be Ricky Nolasco and his 2012 could be Nolasco's 2008...

OTOH if he could have his BABIP hover around league average his ERA+ could probably hover around 100-110...

who is the real Brandon Morrow?

Nobody knows.

Who is Clay Buchholz?
I'm not sure but I do know this:
a 6.2 K -rate and a 3.5 BB rate should not turn into a league leading 187 ERA+ (he had a flukily good year in HR prevention and was absolutely unsustainably unhittable with RISP)
The Redsox really should have tried moving him after 2010...

None of it adds up to Niese being a "pitcher with an established level of performance", though, as you said in #140.

Again, it depends on what metrics you pick and what you define as "performance". If you want the conversation to basically end after you cite ERA, I apparently can't convince you otherwise, but I think that's the wrong way to look at things.

For me, "established level of performance" requires general agreement between multiple systems of evaluation. ERA+ doesn't end every conversation, but no pitcher with ERA+ of 83 and 93 in 350 innings two and three years ago has an "established level of performance" at or above league average.

The same would be true of Jeremy Hellickson, from the opposite side.

For me, "established level of performance" requires general agreement between multiple systems of evaluation. ERA+ doesn't end every conversation, but no pitcher with ERA+ of 83 and 93 in 350 innings two and three years ago has an "established level of performance" at or above league average.

I don't think this is unreasonable, but I think you also have to determine a reasonable level of agreement. Does ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR etc. have to move in unison, or can they vary from year to year so long as there is general convergence. I wouldn't have claimed that Niese had an established level of performance at at or above league average after 2011, but his 2012 gives me reason to believe that it was merely luck that led to his ERA diverging from his peripherals, and to rely more on the metrics that have been consistent in evaluating his true ability.

FWIW, Peavy got a worse deal than what remains on Buerhle's.

This may have something to do with the fact that Peavy's deal came after his first 200-inning season in 5 years, and Buehrle's came after his 11th 200-inning season in 11 years.

That's Fangraphs WAR. Based on B-Ref's pitcher WAR, which considers the value of a pitcher based on the actual runs they allowed or prevented, Niese was 61st - his comparables include Jason Vargas, Ivan Nova, and Homer Bailey. Those are Niese's peers, and none of them passes the laugh test in a package for a top 10 prospect or a major league star.

So you're arguing that B-R WAR is more predictive than fWAR. Good luck with that.

So it turns out that this culminated in the Shields-Myers trade. I still cannot believe that's what the Royals judged as the best offer...