Your not even in the ball park, son.

I'm sure you mean "you're," which is a contraction of "you are."

I thought maybe I had been asleep for a few years and missed Jonathan Niese's streak of years of above average performance. But no, he's still Jon "one good year" Niese with a career high 190 innings.

His peripherals have been very consistent, but this is the first year he wasn't bitten by the BABIP fairy. A year ago, those of you who like to antagonize us were trying to claim there was something about Neise that made him especially delicious to the fairy.

Plus, the Pirates are pretty set in the OF right now with McCutchen and Marte and Snider. If they were going to deal one of their big chips, I think it'd be for a bigger need, like a top shortstop or catcher.

Yeah, that's what I figured. It's tough to align value and needs, hence the short list above.

I guess that leaves Niese or Dickey. Sorry, trolls!

I wouldn't trade Niese for Myers and I don't think I'm overvaluing Niese. I think people are going to start overvaluing top prospects based on how well Trout and Harper did, but Myers could just as easily be Delmon Young or Travis Snider.

I guess that leaves Niese or Dickey. Sorry, trolls!

They always have the option of not making any deal at all if they don't get any decent offers. This isn't a "no reserve" auction.

Maybe they'll get Verlander.

I wouldn't trade Niese for Myers and I don't think I'm overvaluing Niese. I think people are going to start overvaluing top prospects based on how well Trout and Harper did, but Myers could just as easily be Delmon Young or Travis Snider.

Demon Young oWAR (career): 4.9
Jon Niese WAR (career): 3.1

Obviously defense counts, too, but the disappointing version of Myers could easily be equal to Niese so far. The optimistic projection of Myers seems clearly far beyond the optimistic projection of Niese. The only reason to imagine them equivalent is to believe you have something close to certainty about where each one will fall in their projections. If you know Myers will be toward the pessimistic end and Niese at the optimistic end, then you can make a good case for the trade. In this world, though, it doesn't work. There's a case to be made for trading Myers for an established strong but not superlative level--for someone who pitched like Niese 2012 for 3-4 years--but there's about as much uncertainty around Niese as there is around Myers, without the corresponding upside.

Maybe they'll get Verlander.

Well, if they don't, I'm sure they'll be blowing up Sandy's phone with calls about Young Paul Maholm.

Niese is a perfectly decent starter, but he's just not the sort of guy you give up a consensus top-five hitting prospect to get.

Tangentially, it seems insane to me that Niese's 2010 is counted as replacement level. I think it's because of the huge number of unearned runs that he gave up.

Obviously defense counts, too, but the disappointing version of Myers could easily be equal to Niese so far.

The pessimistic projection of Myers is a guy who put up less than 1 WAR a year. Niese so far has bettered that, plus he just had his best season, plus if you use component numbers he's a guy worth over 2.5 WAR a year.

Now if Myers succeeds, he'll be much better than that, but I think the odds of him hitting his optimistic projection are somewhat lower than the odds that Niese does.

To defend the Niese proposition, since I raised it:

1. He has averaged 2.33 WAR over the past 3 seasons and 2.55 WAR over the past 2 seasons (fangraphs).
2. The Mets control his rights for the next 4 years at total cost of $24 mil.
3. The Mets have a $10 mil team option in 2017 and an $11 mil team option in 2018.
4. He just turned 26.

In short, you have a cost controlled left-handed starting pitcher for the next six seasons who is at least a No. 3 starter. Assuming the $5 mil/WAR figure that was raised previously and assuming he continues to perform as he has performed (which takes into account his first full season which was a fair bit worse than his last two seasons), his contract gives the team approximately $25 mil in excess value over the next six seasons (and the vast majority of that value is over the next 3 seasons where there is less projection involved). While, there is always risk of performance degradation, there is always the chance of improvement for a 26 year old pitcher - it's not as it Niese lacks upside. And unlike Myers, there is no risk of issues in transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues. Niese is a significant asset. Maybe I do a Niese/Myers deal from the Mets perspective, and maybe I don't. But, based on the numbers, I fail to see how that kind of offer is in any way laughable.

A lot of people are overrating Myers. He's a good prospect, but he put up those numbers in the PCL, doesn't play up the middle, and struck out a lot. He looks like the next Jason Kubel.

Because they're going to hold out for Verlander.

This Mets fan would trade Niese for Myers in a heartbeat. Dickey too, although I hate the idea of losing him.

Perhaps I am in the minority, but I think a Moose-Tacos (since they are willing to move him) for young SP (Milone probably not enough....maybe a Peacock or Gray? I am not going to pretend to fill out the details...)trade with Oakland seems like a good fit for both sides.

Perhaps I am in the minority, but I think a Moose-Tacos (since they are willing to move him) for young SP (Milone probably not enough....maybe a Peacock or Gray? I am not going to pretend to fill out the details...)trade with Oakland seems like a good fit for both sides.

Is Angelos really going to let the Orioles trade away Moustakas for anything but another Greek star?

A lot of people are overrating Myers. He's a good prospect, but he put up those numbers in the PCL, doesn't play up the middle, and struck out a lot. He looks like the next Jason Kubel.

He was 21 and also dominated AA...and A+, and A before that. He's not a PCL creation.

He was 21 and also dominated AA...and A+, and A before that. He's not a PCL creation.

I agree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think he's elite. He seems like the kind of guy who will put up 120-130 OPS+ while providing ok defense in RF or LF. An above-average player, but not a superstar.

His peripherals have been very consistent, but this is the first year he wasn't bitten by the BABIP fairy. A year ago, those of you who like to antagonize us were trying to claim there was something about Neise that made him especially delicious to the fairy.

Well, his average FB is only 90-91 MPH. It wouldn't be shocking for him to get hit a little harder than average.

I doubt his .272 BABIP this season is sustainable either.

Well, his average FB is only 90-91 MPH. It wouldn't be shocking for him to get hit a little harder than average.

That's average or above average for a lefty, and I don't believe lefties typically have a higher BABIP than righties. Secondly if he was hittable you'd expect to see that in his strikeout rate. Hittable pitchers don't strike out 8 guys per 9. The only guys who deserve really high BABIPs are bad pitchers (the converse is not true as there are plenty of mediocre K:BB pitchers who can sustain really low BABIPs).

So where does Vance Worley fit on the Scherzer-Niese-Dickey spectrum of Royals' potential trade targets? I'm too biased to make that call. A Worley-for-Myers deal would fit the Phils if (big if) Halladay has a clean bill of health.

The only guys who deserve really high BABIPs are bad pitchers

and Glendon Rusch.

I think a Jarrod Parker type pitcher is what it takes to get Myers.

I think a Jarrod Parker type pitcher is what it takes to get Myers.

Some parallel universe Parker who hasn't had TJ? Absolutely. Otherwise, I think the checkered injury history is probably too much of an impediment.

But yeah, generally speaking, some young flamethrower with a whole lot of team control ahead of him should be just about the right price for Myers.

If Parker won't get it done, the Royals aren't seriously interested in dealing Myers.

If Parker won't get it done, the Royals aren't seriously interested in dealing Myers.

Or perhaps, like any rational market participant, they have a price they want to get and they will look for it. Myers isn't going to land Felix or Kershaw, but the truth is that they might be able to do better than Parker.

Remember that the downside to keeping Myers is seeing how the top position prospect heading into next season develops. That's not a terrible downside at all, and frankly, I'd keep Myers if I were the Royals.

I think #77 nails it. Bob Dutton says the Royals are listening in regards to Myers, but aren't actively shopping him. I'd be pretty surprised if he gets dealt. I'd have to think they have to be overwhelmed.

The Rays do make some sense. Matt Moore would be worth looking at, but I pray they're not dazzled by Hellickson's shiny ERA.

Myers isn't going to land Felix or Kershaw

Not by himself, but as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal? I think that's plausible.*

*Assuming that teams are willing to deal that type of pitcher to begin with, of course.

Not by himself, but as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal? I think that's plausible.*

*Assuming that teams are willing to deal that type of pitcher to begin with, of course.

The issue isn't just "that type of pitcher". It's that type of pitcher who has multiple years remaining of team control at a reasonable value. And those types of pitchers are very rarely available. If the Royals want a pitching prospect with front of the rotation potential for Myers, I'm sure they can get that. If they want an actual front of the rotation starter under team control for multiple years at a market rate (Cliff Lee), they can probably get that. If they want an actual front of the rotation starter at an under market rate who isn't under team control for multiple years (Dickey), they can get that. What they can't get is an actual front of the rotation starter who is under team control for multiple years at an under market rate.

Nobody has raised any points that make me think the argument I posed in #62 is invalid. I think the issues people have with Niese are primarily related to the facts that (a) he lacks a top prospect pedigree and (b) the shape of his projected value is not terribly exciting.

Is "Arbitol Dijaler" just another username for Chris Dial? Sorry, maybe everyone knows something that I don't, or whatever, but I've noticed a similarity in style, Mets-fandom, etc.

Let me rephrase - if Parker's not enough for Myers, there's no serious possibility of his being traded right now, and this is a non-story.

Is "Arbitol Dijaler" just another username for Chris Dial? Sorry, maybe everyone knows something that I don't, or whatever, but I've noticed a similarity in style, Mets-fandom, etc.

No, he's a different grump.

I'm not sure I would trade Parker for Myers. Parker is young, only has a year of service time, and has already shown he can be an above average ML starter.

I agree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think he's elite. He seems like the kind of guy who will put up 120-130 OPS+ while providing ok defense in RF or LF. An above-average player, but not a superstar.

That's probably his middle of the road projection, with upside for more and downside for less. Basically, a right-handed Jay Bruce.

I'm not sure I would trade Parker for Myers. Parker is young, only has a year of service time, and has already shown he can be an above average ML starter.

I think the last part is very much up for debate, and of course the injury history as noted. His FIP last year resembled his ERA, but A) That's not park adjusted, and B) even in Oakland, I think we should see at least another year of home run supression that excellent before assuming a baseline. It's an interesting fake trade.

The implication of the intent is that Myers would be available for a youngish or cost controlled top of the rotation starter. Disqualifying Dickey.

Your not even in the ball park, son.

I'm 99% convinced that when Moore trades Myers it will be for FAR less than what most here deem remotely reasonable. let alone equal value/

I'm 99% convinced that when Moore trades Myers it will be for FAR less than what most here deem remotely reasonable. let alone equal value/

Quite possible, but that would be a comment on the GM ability of Moore, not the value of Myers.

Jay Bruce is a perfect comp., but he's far from an elite player.

If the Mets can extend Dickey for, say, $30MM and two more years (bringing the total tab to three years/$35MM) I think they can get that deal done with KC for Wil Myers so long as they're willing to throw in an extra $5MM or so.

Myers looks like a potential future stud, but there is always that risk that he's a Jason Kubel type as mentioned above. Dickey comes with his own set of risks. As a Mets fan I'd do this deal, I'm not sure why the non-Mets fans in this thread think Dickey-Myers is so outlandish. He's the reigning Cy Young award winner and he's been excellent for 2.5 years.

As far as Niese goes, I agree with billyshears. Niese's xFIP over the last three years has been 3.80, 3.28 and 3.64. It's not as if he has just burst onto the scene. He probably has a floor as a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher, and he's got a chance to someday exceed that. I probably don't take Niese for Myers if I am KC, but it's not preposterous.

Nobody has raised any points that make me think the argument I posed in #62 is invalid.

I think that your estimate of Niese's projected future value is excessively optimistic. In particular, I don't see him as having much (if any) remaining upside potential to balance out the downside risk of assuming positive contributions from a pitcher in every year of a contract of that length.

If the Mets can extend Dickey for, say, $30MM and two more years (bringing the total tab to three years/$35MM) I think they can get that deal done with KC for Wil Myers so long as they're willing to throw in an extra $5MM or so.

I think extending Dickey to turn around and deal him won't happen. As I mentioned above, making a deal (not necessarily for Myers) that's contingent upon Dickey agreeing to an extension I could see happening, and it seems like that's the only way the Mets are going to get value for him. If they deal him right now, with no extension, he's a bargain for 2013, but I can't see anyone giving up much for a one-year rental, unless they're really confident on Dickey's asking price and willingness to stay with his new team.

Jay Bruce is a perfect comp., but he's far from an elite player.

He's also been worth between 9.4 (B-R) and 13.7 (Fangraphs) WAR over the last five years, at a cost of $9,059,166. Using the lower of the two WAR figures and billy's value of $5M per marginal win, that's a total surplus value of just under $38M to date, with one of his six original years of team control still remaining.

If Myers becomes a Bruce-like player, trading him for Niese would be a bad idea, according to the numbers.

[Niese] probably has a floor as a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher

I feel it is incumbent upon me to point out that by either B-R or Fangraphs numbers, Niese has had exactly one season of 2.5 or more WAR.

[Niese] probably has a floor as a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher


I feel it is incumbent upon me to point out that by either B-R or Fangraphs numbers, Niese has had exactly one season of 2.5 or more WAR.

And every pitcher's floor is "never throws another pitch".

I think that your estimate of Niese's projected future value is excessively optimistic.

Um, how? I'm taking the average of his last three seasons to get a 2.33 WAR/season figure. That both overweights his 1.9 WAR rookie season and completely ignores any upside a pitcher who just finished his age 25 season might have. At 2.33 WAR/season, even if you ignore the the last 2 team options in the contract, Niese would return approximately $23 mil in excess value over 4 years, and $47 mil in total value over 4 years.

In particular, I don't see him as having much (if any) remaining upside potential to balance out the downside risk of assuming positive contributions from a pitcher in every year of a contract of that length.

I've assumed away all upside in my calculations. As far as downside risk, I grant that I'm assuming health and no performance degradation beneath a baseline that has been set artificially low. I think that is fair given that there are no red flags on either end. The only downside risk is inherent in Niese being a pitcher, and if the Royals don't want to take those risks, they shouldn't trade hitting for pitching.

Using the lower of the two WAR figures and billy's value of $5M per marginal win, that's a total surplus value of just under $38M to date, with one of his six original years of team control still remaining

I took the $5 mil/win figure from another poster. I also don't know how long that figure has applied - you can't really use it retrospectively.

If Myers becomes a Bruce-like player, trading him for Niese would be a bad idea, according to the numbers.

I didn't say anything about Niese. I agree that Niese for Myers doesn't work, but Niese + 1-2 good prospects (I don't know who the Mets have) is in the ballpark. Parker for Myers seems fair.

I also don't know how long that figure has applied - you can't really use it retrospectively.

I think it's fair to use that figure here, since we're talking about a hypothetical future in which Myers develops into a Bruce-like player during a modern context.

Um, how? I'm taking the average of his last three seasons to get a 2.33 WAR/season figure.

That figure doesn't account for the chance of an injury at some point in the next six years. Also, the distribution of Niese's value across such a long time frame decreases the potential impact of his acquisition - three two-WAR seasons aren't worth as much as one six-WAR season.

completely ignores any upside a pitcher who just finished his age 25 season might have

I don't see Niese as having any significant additional upside. What aspect of his game do believe that he could improve in order to account for this uptick in performance? He doesn't seem to have much physical projection left.

I don't see Niese as having any significant additional upside. What aspect of his game do believe that he could improve in order to account for this uptick in performance? He doesn't seem to have much physical projection left.

He's dropped his walk rate each of the last 2 years, from 3.21 per 9 to 2.52 per 9 to 2.32 per 9. So as a Met fanboy I could see convincing myself he could maybe cut the walk rate even more and become an elite control pitcher.

I feel like Myers for Niese very well could turn out to be a fair trade, or one that favors Niese, but also that if you have a prospect like Myers you'd hope to get something more than Niese for him, if that makes any sense.

I think it's fair to use that figure here, since we're talking about a hypothetical future in which Myers develops into a Bruce-like player during a modern context.

But you can't use Bruce's past salaries as a baseline for Myers' future excess value because those salaries were determined in a different environment. If Myers performs exactly like Bruce over his first 4 full seasons, he will likely be paid more than Bruce was over his first 4 seasons, giving him less excess value.

That figure doesn't account for the chance of an injury at some point in the next six years. Also, the distribution of Niese's value across such a long time frame decreases the potential impact of his acquisition - three two-WAR seasons aren't worth as much as one six-WAR season.

Between Niese and Myers, Myers has been more significantly impacted by injury over the past few seasons than Niese. It's not as if there are specific concerns with Niese, and it's not as if Myers has no risk of injury in the next six seasons. Your point is a general one that pitchers are at more significant long term risk for injury and performance degradation than hitters. I agree with that, but it seems to be the Royals idea to trade hitting for pitching.

I don't see Niese as having any significant additional upside. What aspect of his game do believe that he could improve in order to account for this uptick in performance? He doesn't seem to have much physical projection left.

Well, he might not start throwing 95 mph, but I see no reason why he couldn't improve his control, refine his pitches, increase his stamina, learn how to better approach hitters, etc.