Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Page 2 of 2 pages
Beyond positioning there are park adjustments that need to be made for defensive statistics. When the Twins were in the Metrodome they consistently had terrific defenders at SS regardless of who they put there (Cristian Guzman, Jason Bartlett, etc). LF in Fenway and RF in Metrodome need to be adjusted for the wall. The extra foul territory in Oakland gives corner infielders more chances to make outs. I don't typically see anything regarding defensive park factors. Is that all buried in the data or is it ignored?
I appreciate your example, but I don't see how it is any different from my point about the plate appearances.
#97, you are conveniently ignoring that Marte is giving up a lot more singles than normal playing his no doubles defense and is penalized for those.
Sure we can construct all kinds of examples as to how Marte got his defensive advantage. No one is arguing that isn't possible.
It's just that hitters may see similar special circumstances. For instance, I did some research awhile back on hitter strength of opposition and Albert Pujols consistently faced the easiest batch of pitchers in the major leagues when he was in the NL Central enough so that it would knock him down a rung or two in people's estimation. Now he's moved to the AL West and what do you know he is having a harder time.
BIS does account for severe shifts in their defensive play, see Lawrie 2012. But there has to be some effect. For example, I suspect that some of the value we assign to Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro on defense is thanks to the Cubs new front office, but that defensive value is real, we just don't have the means to divide it between the player and the management, similar to how we don't have the means to credit advanced scouting for picking up on how an opposing pitcher tips their pitches.
A batter who comes up more frequently is going to be compared to a replacement level and his performance relative to replacement level. He doesn't have an inherent advantage by coming up more often, he still has to perform.
It is clear now that one of us doesn't understand how offensive WAR works. My impression is that offensive WAR is a counting stat, not a rate stat.
So coming up more often *absolutely* is better for anyone who is not a replacement player. My impression may be wrong, but it is clear that one of is wrong about how offensive WAR works.
My interpretation of this entire thread is "my small sample is better than your small sample because it has counting stats attached."
They still have to perform. With defense, it's being compared to an average player not replacement level, chances is not beneficial unless you perform better than average. An average defensive player is worth exactly the same defensively regardless of the number of opportunities he has.
It's not. It is best to call it a rate stat that is interpreted into a counting stat. The rate is relative to replacement level.
A counting stat cannot fluctuate down, a ball player who has a 1.1 oWar, and goes 0-4 in a game will see their oWar go down.
The basic currency of WAR is runs. We start with runs added or lost versus an average player and then compare the average player to a replacement player. I just got done saying we don't want to use averages, but an equation should explain what we are doing here.
Players Runs over Replacement = Player_runs - ReplPlayer_runs = (Player_runs - AvgPlayer_runs) + (AvgPlayer_runs - ReplPlayer_runs)
With defense, it's being compared to an average player not replacement level,
I don't think that's exactly true
Unless your theory is that pitchers are throwing the most hitable pitches to the team's most dangerous hitter? That would be a first in MLB history.
A player hits a ball, he ends up on second base. That is completely objective outcome that is easily measured(call it a double, call it single with an error, call it a two base error, but any way, the result is a man on second base) Any system is going to find a way of trying to evaluate that.
Now defensive stats work differently. They aren't really trying to measure results, they are trying to compare results versus the league average. A ball hit to a particular location compared to what a ball hit to that location typically results in, and assigning a run value based upon the difference. So when Marte fields a ball, he is not credited with an out, he is credited with a positive run value difference between the average ball hit to that location. That value is determined by a lot of factors and could easily be mis-interpreted(theoretically).
Cardsfanboy's scenarios are about an average fielder who is a sub-replacement level hitter.
We understand (as Sean pointed out) that the distribution of balls is a big (if not the only reason) for it. But still 7 runs defense over 25 games is a lot, especially when the guy getting the 7 extra runs defense is the guy who has made the fewer plays. I don't know what the run value is for making those plays, but even at one run per play, that is saying that Marte made 8 extra plays over an average player in 37 chances.... I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and that just seems like an obscenely high number of plays that Marte made in a short period of time, while not getting a significant number of routine chances...
Effectively what we are saying is that Marte in 25 games, made 37 outs(those are actual facts). Of which 8 of them are plays that wouldn't have been made by an average fielder(and that is using each out is worth one run scenario---even his two robbed homeruns technically isn't worth one run over average...if you assign a value of an out is worth .5 of a run, then that means he has made 16 plays---out of 37--that wouldn't have been made by an average player) I do not remotely see how that is possible. How can a left fielder play for 25 games and receive only difficult plays?
Very, very unlikely, but in any case, the runs scored really scored. The runs Marte allegedly saved (vs. an avg. LF) may not have actually been saved.
most of the time, a hitter has (essentially) the same chance to hit a home run as he does in any other offensive situation
You don't like that defensive stats disagree with each other? Well, OBP and SLG disagree with each other, because they measure offense in two different ways.
If dWAR is different from, say, plus/minus, people react with "you can't rely on defensive stats."* In reality they are measuring defense in two different ways, like OBP and SLG.
In reality they are measuring defense in two different ways, like OBP and SLG.
It would be like if I weigh myself on my scale at home and it says I weigh 235 pounds and the scale at the doctor's office says I weigh 241 pounds. One (or both) of those scales is wrong.
All war-to-date (and its defenders) are claiming, is that, to date, marte has helped the pirates more than harper helped the nats.
Fielding involves a lot more than simply out/not-out, most importantly here holding runners to fewer bases. You have your 37 outs, but you are completely ignoring the 60 other chances he had to impact the play.
OBP and SLG both measure offensive contribution.
Matt cains era is 6.79. He is a good pitcher. Era doesnt pass the sniff test
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
Login to Join (7 members)
Page rendered in 0.4807 seconds, 74 querie(s) executed