Interesting stuff.
Read More...John Farrell and Torey Lovullo looked down toward the Twins bullpen. They saw some stirring, as Minnesota lefty reliever Brian Duensing had grabbed a ball and tossed it a few times.
Then Duensing sat down. It was then the Red Sox manager and his bench coach knew they had put the right people in the right places.
“It’s a good feeling,” Lovullo said after the Red Sox’ 12-5 win over the Twins Saturday night, “when all the puzzle pieces fit perfectly.”
The puzzle Lovullo ...
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< 1 2A trained observer watches every ball hit in the fielder's general area, and logs whether or not he made the play, and in which defensive zone the play took place. Then, at the end of the game, they add up the run value of each play in a fielder's zone of responsibility, add it to his total, and show the result when compared to a league baseline. That's how I understand it, anyway - apologies if that's incorrect.
Is there a certain amount of discretion involved? Sure. But there's that same discretion that's used in more traditional fielding stats, when the official scorer determines whether a given ball is a hit or an error.
Using .26 for the out and .44 for the error.
Cabrera = 127 put outs + 243 assists - 13 errors = 90.5 runs.
Trout = 340 put outs + 3 assists - 4 errors = 87.4 runs.
Now, I've been around long enough to know that there is plenty to quibble with here, and have done some quibbling myself.
But I don't think it's at all a stretch to argue that Cabrera provided as much value defensively. Win Shares Above Bench does so, and then some. It depends on how one wants to allocate value among fielders.
The fact is, a team needs to provide 162*27 outs = 1,268 runs of defensive value (again using .26 for the out) every season, give or take extra innings and not scoring enough runs to take the game into the bottom of the ninth, neither of which is necessarily the fault of the fielders as fielders. There's an absolute value as well as a relative one to be taken into account.
That's not correct.
OPS+ is calculated that way because it makes the coefficients come out sort of close to their
linear weights values. It's really a Frankenstein stat, and not nearly as straightforwardly
helpful as many people think.
Angel Stadium, after being an average park for years, is Petco II?
Angels home/road
Opps Anaheim/home
2012:
272/325/428, 82 HR, 348 R vs. 276/337/437, 105 HR, 419 R
234/291/367, 79 HR, 309 R vs. 259/329/440, 107 HR, 390 R
2011:
248/310/377, 62 HR, 305 R vs. 257/315/426, 93 HR, 362 R
244/303/371, 69 HR, 297 R vs. 259/322/405, 73 HR, 346 R
2010:
247/313/378, 69 HR, 318 R vs. 250/309/402, 86 HR, 362 R
243/313/369, 68 HR, 322 R vs. 270/343/440, 80 HR, 380 R
Some totals:
At Anaheim: 429 HR, 1899 runs
Away: 544 HR, 2259 runs
H/R:
79% HR, 84% runs
There's nothing mysterious in park factors. There's no WAR magic in there. Just plain basic facts. Doesn't really matter why Anaheim is such a tough place to hit now, it is.
And it's interesting that nobody complained about the "unbelievability" of Anaheim's park factor until they needed an excuse to vote Cabrera.
And it's interesting that:
Trout home: 318/390/586 976 OPS, 16 HR
Trout road: 332/407/544 951 OPS, 14 HR
Cabrera home: 332/403/692 1094 OPS, 28 HR
Cabrera road: 327/384/529 913 OPS, 18 HR
But somehow it's Trout who's unfairly advantaged by his home park.
To be fair, no one really cared if Mark Trumbo's OPS+ was "accurate." Park factors aren't complained about unless people notice them, and a lot of us didn't realize Anaheim was now a pitchers' haven until Mike Trout put up 10 WAR.
And it's interesting that:
Trout home: 318/390/586 976 OPS, 16 HR
Trout road: 332/407/544 951 OPS, 14 HR
See, that doesn't look like an extreme pitchers' park! :-)
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