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Now, IF we believe their performance is 100% due to luck, we should also be prepared
I'll repeat what I said elsewhere: that .330 was achieved over the course of 1500+ PAs, nearly three player seasons. Even including their 3-for-20 performance so far in the postseason, the Cards are still .328 with RISP for 2013. It's an absurd figure, 3.5 stdevs above the mean.
Now, IF we believe their performance is 100% due to luck, we should also be prepared to see a player equivalent to the "normal" 2013 Cardinals hit 3.5 stdevs above the mean in a sample of 1500 PAs. I ran the numbers over the past three seasons, and that batting average would work out to .356.
Many of you have probably read that the St. Louis Cardinals set a record this year for the highest batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP). They hit .330 in those situations.
However, they didn’t come close to having the highest OPS (theirs was .865, very good but tied for 16th place
I think batting average is what you want here. The whole idea of scoring position is that the runner can score on any kind of hit. If you hit a home run, it doesn't matter if the runner was in scoring position or not.
In college during lunch a friend of mine flipped something like 22 heads in a row, including several that got away from him (and one that hit a bowl and flipped away - still landed heads though). It was not 100% luck, but a huge chunk of it was. But he still did it.
I'll repeat what I said elsewhere: that .330 was achieved over the course of 1500+ PAs, nearly three player seasons.
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