I'm a little confused by that answer to the second question in the excerpt. If none of his efforts to define and measure clutch performance have been at all successful, why would they create resonance in the analytical community?

I'm a little confused by that answer to the second question in the excerpt. If none of his efforts to define and measure clutch performance have been at all successful, why would they create resonance in the analytical community?

My sarcastotronica is probably broken, but I'm sure that's supposed to be a "nor" there.

I'm just confused that he decided to answer a question he didn't think was specific enough. I assume he got a few more questions that he could have responded to.

If none of his efforts to define and measure clutch performance have been at all successful, why would they create resonance in the analytical community?

Well, there are provocative failures that can resonate within a community. Take for instance, stone washed jeans or the last season of The Wire.

I'm a little confused by that answer to the second question in the excerpt. If none of his efforts to define and measure clutch performance have been at all successful, why would they create resonance in the analytical community?

Maybe only the successful ones failed to resonate in the stathead world.

I'm just confused that he decided to answer a question he didn't think was specific enough. I assume he got a few more questions that he could have responded to.

The poorly chosen question and correspondingly pointless answer is a BJ Mailbag staple.

The poorly chosen question and correspondingly pointless answer is a BJ Mailbag staple

And yet we all continue to read....

Bill James is definitely one of those guys we'd all remember as much more brilliant if he'd just stopped talking 15 years ago
After making his very impressive breakthroughs.

Bill also states his five favorite movies:

Airplane!
The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance
Being There
Unforgiven
O Brother, Where Art Thou?

Yeah, casting a list in terms of "favorite" is always in some defensible. Interesting choices, though. Selections without explanations beg to be ignored. What would be interesting would be to know what movies he's seen--how widely "read" is he?

Being There?

For the sake of discussion, let’s say that Schilling is clearly the better pitcher over Jack Morris (or find two other players historically that is a more clear example). Morris however will get 70-80% of the votes (14th year), while Schilling is going to get 30-40% of the votes (1st year), and they are on the same ballot. 

IMO this is a false premise, despite the disclaimer. It is not clear to the BBWAA electorate that Schilling is better on statistics and as good on the career postseason narrative. That is a big part of the problem and justification of the 15-year process. If 75% of the electorate were convinced about each one's career being worthy of induction, they could elect both men "on the same ballot." (The voters average ~6 votes per ballot out of a possible 10; where is the scarcity?)

The BBWAA HOF ballot is different from voting for a single season most valuable player, in that there is usually only one MVP per year.

Do you think it’s a fundamental problem that the two are treated separately, that the writers have clearly thought and rethought Morris far more than they have Schilling and will only seriously get to Schilling in year 2 or 3?

This is a feature, not a bug. After reading some of the voters' columns this year, I consider the 15-year process to be an opportunity for dialogue and education. This "first-ballot" Hall of Famer fetish is a bigger flaw in the voting process.

What would be interesting would be to know what movies he's seen--how widely "read" is he?

This sounds like an invitation to copy and paste my database of movies seen with the accompanying ratings into this thread. Just my method of creating positive resonance within the community.

It is not clear to the BBWAA electorate that Schilling is better [than Morris] on statistics and as good on the career postseason narrative.

When I see comments like that and have finished cursing the darkness, I wonder whether it might not be a bad idea for the BBWAA to send every member a statistical package that compared each eligible batter's and pitcher's key statistics side-by-side in each category that voters appear to think is important.

Truncated Example:

POSTSEASON
Roger Clemens 35 games, 12-8 W-L, 3.75 ERA
Jack Morris 13 games, 7-4 W-L, 3.80 ERA
Curt Schilling 19 games, 11-2 W-L, 2.23 ERA

For the sabermetrically challenged, this package might also included a Dick and Jane level glossary of some of the "advanced newfangled" statistics. You know, like OPS, OPS+ and ERA+. Explain to them in "See Spot. See Spot run." terms just what these terms measure and why they're important in evaluating a player's career.

Obviously such a package wouldn't be necessary for writers who have actually done the work on their own, and in the case of the no-brainers or the obvious one-and-doners it would be superfluous. But even if it only caught the attention of 10% of the voting base, it might swing a few votes in the "right" direction, and in any case, how could it hurt?

This sounds like an invitation to copy and paste my database of movies seen with the accompanying ratings into this thread. Just my method of creating positive resonance within the community.

I say go for it. Or we can all list our favorite movies of the year. My list begins with Moonrise Kingdom.

What would be interesting would be to know what movies he's seen--how widely "read" is he?

This sounds like an invitation to copy and paste my database of movies seen with the accompanying ratings into this thread. Just my method of creating positive resonance within the community.

I've compiled a running Excel file of the roughly 3000 feature films and shorts I've recorded over the past 3+ years, complete with ratings for the 2000 or so that I've seen at least once. If I ever considered copying and pasting that particular hedge against future memory loss, I'd be thinking more of a hostage situation than anything relating to positive resonance.

I'm pretty sure I did not see a single movie that's been released this year.

I think a weighted voting ballot for the HOF would be very interesting idea, and would allow those who want to punish the "PED suspects" the ability to still list them on the ballot, but at the bottom end.
"They are HOF players but there are more deserving ones, in my mind."

Based on the the movies listed at boxofficemojo.com, I saw ten of them in the theatre.

In order of enjoyment (from most to least):

Marvel's The Avengers
Skyfall
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hunger Games
Les Miserables
Looper
The Amazing Spider-Man
Jack Reacher
Ted
Total Recall

I say go for it. Or we can all list our favorite movies of the year. My list begins with Moonrise Kingdom.

For some reason I keep expecting to not like Wes Anderson's latest movies, but end up being pleasantly surprised. Same thing happened with Moonrise Kingdom. I think it stems from the disappointment of Darjeeling.

I also liked Submarine which isn't technically a Wes Anderson movie, but may as well be.

Seeing as it's the end of the year, a 2012 list could be in order. Per my criticker scores...
I should note that it's been a bit of a weak year. But I guess that may be because I don't see a ton of movies in theatre. So it's very likely I just haven't seen my favourite movie of 2012 yet.

Seven Psychopaths - 72
Looper - 71
Anna Karenina - 70
Moonrise Kingdom - 68
Skyfall - 68
Dark Night Rises - 67
Knuckleball - 66
Ted - 66
Avengers - 65
Prometheus - 65
Wanderlust - 64
Five Year Engagement - 63
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World - 60
Lay the Favourite - 59
Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter - 58
21 Jump Street - 57
Bel Ami - 57
To Rome with Love - 55
Liberal Arts - 52

Man, I saw a lot of crap this year.

EDIT: I suppose I should explain my ranking system. In the 80s is a movie that I like so much that I think it says something about me as a person. 70 is one I could easily watch multiple times. 60 is perfectly cromulent if moving towards forgettable at the bottom end. 50s is a movie I feel stupid about having watched.

For the life of me I can't remember why I'd have Wanderlust so high...I assume I just like Paul Rudd that much.

I guess I've also seen the Hobbit and This is 40. But haven't rated them yet.

I'm pretty sure I did not see a single movie that's been released this year.

I had to see Avengers, but it's the only in movie theater movie I've seen this year.

Just watched "Twelve Angry Men" on TCM. Lee J. Cobb is a perfect proxy for the rumor mongering BBWAA voters.

Truncated Example:

POSTSEASON
Roger Clemens 35 games, 12-8 W-L, 3.75 ERA
Jack Morris 13 games, 7-4 W-L, 3.80 ERA
Curt Schilling 19 games, 11-2 W-L, 2.23 ERA

yes, but that's not an apples=apples comparison. the entirety of morris' career occurred before the onset of divisional playoffs/wildcards, and he was therefore denied the opportunity to pitch in as many games as clemens and schilling.

Curt recently wrote something to the effect of "you're not going to beat me in October," and hardly anyone has.

Curt Schilling is one pitcher who I think should be auto-HOF on the first ballot.

And if Morris is an HOF pitcher then Bill James is my uncle.

Schilling:

                                                                                      
Year   Age Tm Lg Series Rslt Opp W L  W-L%  ERA G GS CG SHO   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO
2 ALCS                           2 1  .667 5.82 4  4  0   0 21.2 25 14 14  4  2   0 13
2 NLCS                           1 0 1.000 1.44 3  3  1   0 25.0 15  5  4  0  7   0 31
4 WS                             4 1  .800 2.06 7  7  1   1 48.0 33 13 11  4 10   0 43

4 LCS: 7 G, 3-1, 46.2 IP, 3.47 ERA

EDIT: 8 LCS/WS: 14 G, 7-1, 94.2 IP, 2.76 ERA

Morris

                                                                                      
Year   Age Tm Lg Series Rslt Opp W L W-L%  ERA  G GS CG SHO   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO
4 Yrs (7 Series)                 7 4 .636 3.80 13 13  5   1 92.1 83 39 39  9 32   3 64
4 ALCS                           3 2 .600 4.87  6  6  2   0 40.2 39 22 22  4 14   1 24
3 WS                             4 2 .667 2.96  7  7  3   1 51.2 44 17 17  5 18   2 40

I'm pretty sure I did not see a single movie that's been released this year.

Do movies in an airplane count?

Enjoyed fully:
The Cabin in the Woods
Lawless
Looper
Argo
Wreck-it Ralph
Skyfall
Lincoln

Enjoyed more than half:
Haywire
The Avengers
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: The Phantom Menace

Enjoyed less than half:
John Carter
Snow White and the Huntsman
We Have a Pope

Did not enjoy:
The Dictator

"Enjoy" isn't really the right word, but was great:
The Grey

"Enjoy" isn't really the right word, but was sinister:
Sinister

Favorite movie of the year, off the top of my head -- Excision. Engagingly sick. Chained, directed by Jennifer Lynch, was a lot better than I expected, too.

Best zombie flick -- Dead Season.

As a total fiend for exorcism films, I quite liked The Devil Inside as well. Apparently, a lot of viewers wailed & gnashed their teeth over the supposedly enigmatic ending, but I have no idea what the heck they're on about & can only assume they meant to watch some My Pretty Pony musical instead.

Best found-footage type flick -- Greystone Park, by Oliver Stone's son (dad appears at the beginning).

That's for discs (I haven't actually been out to a movie in about a year & a half, I thin) dated 2012. Probably quite a few 2011 flicks actually came out this year, too.

Liberal Arts - 52

I did not realize anyone else in the world had seen this movie. I was enjoying it until the 15-minute long fight about Twilight in the middle.

Top 10 movies I've watched this year, in alphabetical order:

Absence of Malice
Germany: Year Zero
High and Low
Intruder In The Dust
M
Pandora's Box
Red Beard
Rififi
The Search
Touchez Pa Au Grisbi

I'm in an OOTP historical league. It includes Negro Leaguers, Japanese players and career minor leaguers. The HOF vote is weighted and of course owners use stats almost exclusively because we only pay attention to our own players. Looks like this is going to be a movie hijack.

Movies I've seen this year:

The Hobbit

Movies I've seen in the last nine years:

The Hobbit
Pick of Destiny
Return of the King

As my list above reaffirms, it's no secret that 90+ percent of my viewing is horror & to a lesser extent sf. If I wanted to watch stuff about, or that could pass for, real life, I'd have cable TV &/or would pay more attention to people around me.

That said, as I've noted before, my favorite movies ever do include the likes of Reds, Grapes of Wrath, The Snake Pit, Sunset Boulevard, Citizen Kane, Sling Blade, Annie Hall, Stalag 17, The Great Escape, Dazed & Confused, Velvet Goldmine, The Return of Martin Guerre, What's Eating Gilbert Grape, Danton, the various Thin Mans & Mr. Belvederes, about half of John Sayles' oeuvre, etc. etc. etc.

Oh, & for you self-styled cynics & sophisticates, Field of Dreams, too.

Theater movies I saw this year in rank order

The Grey>Moonrise Kingdom>Argo>>>>>>>The Words

But the top 3 changes with my mood. The Words remains at the bottom, regardless. It was better in theory than in practice.

Curt Schilling is one pitcher who I think should be auto-HOF on the first ballot.

Really? I would vote for him, but an auto-hof? I don't think so. Not even one of the four best pitchers of his era, and as low as about 8th depending on where you rate certain guys, clearly behind Clemens, Maddux, Randy and Pedro... Arguably behind Glavine, Brown and Halladay(yes overlapping eras, I think of an era as 5-10 years before and after a players career to avoid the silly Morris distinction) (and if you are a Rivera fan, I can see him being ahead of Schilling by some peoples methodology)

You can't dock Schilling for pitching in the same era with 4 other all time HOF worthy pitchers.

And Brown, Glavine, and Halladay are superficially similar to Schilling, but if you look at RA and post-season, they aren't even visible in his rear view mirror.

The weighted ballot makes a tremendous difference in MVP votes—and accounts heavily for the fact that MVP voting IS largely successful

What, is Bill James living in the 2011s?

And Brown, Glavine, and Halladay are superficially similar to Schilling, but if you look at RA

Dickey? C'mon, he's had one great season & he's in his late 30s. I love the guy, but I just don't see it.

I take it back about Roy, he really is earily like Schilling, more UER sure, but not a ton. His ERA+ even with decline years should end a little higher than Schilling, his post season, whil not Montague level, is very good, Both workhorses, Halladay doesn't have Schillings 4 250+ IP seasons, but the times have changed, he's still the main innings guy for his era.

Halladay should get there.

Dickey? C'mon, he's had one great season & he's in his late 30s. I love the guy, but I just don't see it.

RA is a lock. Now that he has figured out the power knuckler, only 8 more years like 2012, which should be trivial for a knuckleball pitcher.

I find your ideas fascinating, & it is incumbent upon me to request subscription details for your newsletter.

The Unforgiven.... a movie about the American West filmed in Canada

And Brown, Glavine, and Halladay are superficially similar to Schilling, but if you look at RA and post-season, they aren't even visible in his rear view mirror.

Smoltz is superficially similar to Schilling. Brown had a higher peak even after accounting for runs allowed. Again I said arguably, but I see Brown as the peakier candidate, I'll take Browns five/six best years over Schillings everytime. Schilling gains ground with the career, but Brown was the better peak candidate. (note I do not pray to the altar of war for pitchers in the slightest)

But the point was that a slam dunk is not a guy who was at best fifth best in his era.

Prometheus ... a film about somewhere-the-hell-out-in-space filmed on Earth.

Wow, people really like "The Grey," huh? From the description it sounded like it would be tense, but in an unpleasant way, like a shark attack movie on land.

But it's so beautiful to look at.

#26 - I don't know if this says more about me or you, but I've heard of literally zero of your top 10 movies. ;-)

#42 - he didn't say that the movies came out this year, just that he'd seen them this year. For instance, "M" is the film that made Peter Lorre a star in 1931, and is one of the great serial killer films of all time (and probably the first).

edit: and by "serial killer films" I mean films about a serial killer, not films that commit murders. Though the way the Nazis treated everyone associated with the film once they took power might make you wonder.

one of the great serial killer films of all time (and probably the first).

Didn't Hitchcock's The Lodger come out a few years before that?

[42] #26 - I don't know if this says more about me or you, but I've heard of literally zero of your top 10 movies. ;-)

I highly recommend "High and Low" and "M" and "Rififi." M is far more than a mere "serial killer" film IMO.

I'm a TCM nut but found "M" a bit of a chore to watch, 80 years on, because of the total lack of background music. The suspense and emotional tension eventually wins out.

M is pretty good.

My all-time favorite movies:

The Godfather
Manhattan
Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Quiz Show
This is Spinal Tap
Topsy-Turvy
Young Frankenstein

#26 - I don't know if this says more about me or you, but I've heard of literally zero of your top 10 movies. ;-)

Tell you what: Rent them on Netflix, and if you give them an honest shot and don't like them, I'll pay for two months worth of your membership. They're all among the best movies of all time, though I should warn you that all of them except Absence of Malice, Intruder in the Dust and The Search have this scary thingy called subtitles, which some folks can't seem to get past.

-------------------------------------------

Didn't Hitchcock's The Lodger come out a few years before that?

It did, but the only version of that movie I've seen is the 1944 sound version starring Laird Cregar as Jack the Ripper, one of the creepiest performances (in the good sense) of all time. Though NTITAI, Louise Brooks's Lulu in Pandora's Box meets her fate at the hands of Jack the Ripper after she runs into him on the street and seduces him.

-------------------------------------------

I'm a TCM nut but found "M" a bit of a chore to watch, 80 years on, because of the total lack of background music. The suspense and emotional tension eventually wins out.

Background music as standard issue didn't really catch on until about the mid-1930's, but in the case of M, Lorre's continual whistling of The Hall of the Mountain King more than makes up for it. It's too bad that Lorre's only known for his roles in Casablanca and The Maltese Falcon, because I can hardly think of a single movie where he wasn't outstanding.

It's too bad that Lorre's only known for his roles in Casablanca and The Maltese Falcon, because I can hardly think of a single movie where he wasn't outstanding.

this may be the exception, Andy