Even his changeup is hard, at 88-90 mph, and can also be a plus offering at times.

This is a good thing?

I don't know enough about the players available, but if I was a Pirates fan I'd be extremely nervous about taking someone whose second and third best pitches are good "at times" and "when it's working".

Maybe he's going to be a huge star. For his sake, and for the Pirates sake, I hope so. Pittsburgh fans have waited long enough for a winner.

#1 - totally agree. Take another 8 MPH off that change and he'd be better off, I'm sure.

#2 - I'd rather go with a college pitcher with that kind of stuff than a HS pitcher with tons of "ceiling".

Sounds like a reasonable pick to me.

A Boras client who spurned the Yankees in 2008, so he might not be coming all that cheaply, although his less than stellar 2011 season may have reduced his demands a bit.

So, there are questions about his pitchability, but he's got two plus pitches and he maintains his velocity well. That sounds like a good #1 pick.

Cole reminds me a bit of Justin Verlander. (Obviously, he surely also reminds more knowledgeable people of college pitchers with great stuff who didn't turn into major league aces.)

He's been #1 on a lot of people's boards since last year. This is a smart pick. Will be interesting to see what he commands but the Pirates didn't shy away from paying Alvarez, so I don't suspect they'll shy away from paying Cole.

Meanwhile, the Astros are supposedly negotiating with a guy who BA ranks as the 60th best player in the draft in a pre-draft deal for the #11 pick. Let the Jim Crane Era begin!

Also sounds like the Mariners are going with either Anthony Rendon or Bubba Starling.

DBacks seem locked on Trevor Bauer

Os will likely be pretty tempted to go with local kid Danny Hultzen.

Reports have the Royals being pretty secretive, but I suspect they'll go with Dylan Bundy.

This is a good thing?

It could be. If he throws it with the same delivery and arm speed that he throws his fastball with the slight difference in speed and any difference in trajectory makes him that much harder to hit. Stephen Strasburg did pretty well with his changeup, and that averaged 89.7 mph.

Can we place a moratorium on BS pitch speeds? There are maybe a half dozen major league starters who average near 95 mph. Verlander, Price, Pineda and a few more I am missing.

Maybe this kid is all that and a bag of chips. My guess is that he averages 92 and when he muscles up can get 95 just like Verlander can get to 99 when he feeling his oats.

It could be. If he throws it with the same delivery and arm speed that he throws his fastball with the slight difference in speed and any difference in trajectory makes him that much harder to hit. Stephen Strasburg did pretty well with his changeup, and that averaged 89.7 mph.

If Cole can average 97-98 on his fastball, then yes. If he's throwing a fastball at 93-95, you probably want a bit more differential on the change.

How does this work for the Astros? Is McLane still setting the budget or does Crane have input? Technically McLane still owns the team, right? Is this a case where they are going on the cheap because McLane isn't interested in spending money on a product he is going to own for another few months while Crane cannot spend the money because it isn't his team yet?

Gerrit Cole trivia: He dates the sister of Giants SS Brandon Crawford, which could make for some fun future ABs.

Stephen Strasburg did pretty well with his changeup, and that averaged 89.7 mph.

Strasburg also had an 80-mph curve, so he had a much broader range of speeds. Also, his changeup broke like a foot and a half down and in on right-handed batters. Unless Cole can do that, which I doubt, I think the comparison is moot.

I still can't fathom how, of these two teammates:

a)136.2ip, 73h, 36bb, 203k, 13-2, 1.25 ERA

b)114.1ip, 103h, 24bb, 119k, 6-8, 3.31 ERA

that pitcher b is considered the superior prospect.

pitcher a, Bauer, has put up Strasburg type numbers against better competition than Strasburg faced, he has performed better than Cole in every facet, he is simply a better pitcher and a better prospect.

Bauer vs. Cole is likely to make the Pirates look dumb and some other GM look smart.

b)114.1ip, 103h, 24bb, 119k, 6-8, 3.31 ERA

So, not knowing much about Bauer, are his scouting reports off the charts? Because Cole's are very, very strong.

Short answer, Bauer is shorter and slighter than Cole. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he doesn't throw 100. He has an unconventional motion based on Lincecum's, and he is on the wrong side (from the pirates point of view) of that whole long toss training split. That is the entirety of the things Cole has over him from the scouting reports.

Bauer has far better control of his fastball which has better movement. He has much better secondary pitches that he throws with outstanding control. He has unquestioned major league stuff, he is expected to go in the top three of the draft. Even those high on Cole expect to see Bauer in the majors sooner and would not be surprised to see him have a better career.

I still can't fathom how, of these two teammates:

a)136.2ip, 73h, 36bb, 203k, 13-2, 1.25 ERA

b)114.1ip, 103h, 24bb, 119k, 6-8, 3.31 ERA

that pitcher b is considered the superior prospect.

Why can't you fathom it? Cole is considered to have better stuff, while Bauer has better command. You can learn command.

Bauer looks like a heckuva prospect, too, so this is no knock on him. But it's very common for, among two pitchers on one team in the amateur ranks or the low minors - and even into the high minors - one pitcher to have better results and the other to be the better MLB prospect.

Results against low level competition don't translate directly into future success.

EDIT: I see you've clarified your argument, and now you're saying that Bauer has better secondary stuff and a comparable fastball. That hasn't been what I've read in my three days of draft reading. Obviously if that's true, then Bauer is the better prospect. But in either case, college results aren't really the point.

I have to disagree, I don't think it is anything but a coin flip gamble as to whether a college pitcher can learn better command.

If you look at all of the pitchers taken #1 overall and how almost all of them have flopped it is a lot of cases of "threw really hard but never developed control" mixed in with a bunch of injuries.

At his age Cole should have an idea how to strike people out, how to keep hitters off balance. That he doesn't is a major red flag in my book.

How does this work for the Astros? Is McLane still setting the budget or does Crane have input? Technically McLane still owns the team, right? Is this a case where they are going on the cheap because McLane isn't interested in spending money on a product he is going to own for another few months while Crane cannot spend the money because it isn't his team yet?

The Astros have denied the report in #6, and Keith Law tweeted that he does not think that the Astros have Reed (the pitcher in question)in the mix for the No. 11 position. The best I can tell is that this is just a rumor.

Crane has been briefed on the Astros' draft rankings and likely scenarios for the No. 11 pick, or something to that effect. Crane and Postolos, the incoming CEO, will sit in on the draft war room. Everyone says that Crane and Postolos are just observing, in order to learn how the organization prepares and operates the draft. However, we know that Crane and Ed Wade flew together to watch a college baseball game; so I find it hard to believe that there is no informal conversation between Crane and Wade regarding the possible draft choices. They probably have to be careful in characterizing Crane's role, since he hasn't been approved. But it's likely that he will be paying for the signing bonuses. Wade says that McLane had already approved a budget sufficient to sign the players they expect to be available, or something like that.

Cole's a decent player, and a reasonable pick, I guess.

I'd take Rendon, but as usual, nobody asked me.

At his age Cole should have an idea how to strike people out, how to keep hitters off balance. That he doesn't is a major red flag in my book.

If he doesn't know how to do it, then how did he strike out so many guys in 2010?

The Astros have denied the report in #6, and Keith Law tweeted that he does not think that the Astros have Reed (the pitcher in question)in the mix for the No. 11 position. The best I can tell is that this is just a rumor.

On the whole, which is dumber: Reaching for a signable second-round talent in the high first, or using a high pick on a pitcher from Stanford?

If you look at all of the pitchers taken #1 overall and how almost all of them have flopped it is a lot of cases of "threw really hard but never developed control" mixed in with a bunch of injuries.

The only real non-injury flop I see on the list of college pitcher #1s is Bryan Bullington, a command/control guy. Hochevar may join him, he also wasn't a raw stuff guy.

You could call Matt Anderson a flop, but I think everyone's agreed to call that pick just plain stupid.

If I had the #1 overall pick, I'd take the best available hitter 100 times out of 100.

Don't do THIS again, Pittsburgh.

If he doesn't know how to do it, then how did he strike out so many guys in 2010?

You mean the other year that Trevor Bauer led the league in strikeouts?

Actually, he walked twice as many people last year, looks like he consciously tried to improve control, lowered his walk and strikeout rates, didn't improve the results at all.

Thing is, I am not saying he isn't a good prospect, just that when you are talking the #1 pick and comparing him to Strasburg you should be seeing "man among boys" numbers, the kind of numbers Bauer has put up. Seeing ordinary, even below average, numbers, should have you saying whoah, wait a minute, what am I missing?

This whole thing reminds me of the year Lincecum was drafted, like Bauer he was clearly the best college pitcher in the nation. But also like Bauer he was "small" and had a "weird" motion, and dropped in the draft.

I remember the early 80s when the NBA kept trying to find "the next Larry Bird." They ignored the fact that Larry simply was superior to the vast majority of "slow footed, bad leaping white guys" and in the end "the next Larry Bird" usually turned out to be the next Paul Mokeski.

Is comparing Bauer to Lincecum a case of comparing him to the best player of similar style or are there true similarities?

So he'll end up a Yankee in the end, after all.

Well there are intentional similarities, Bauer has openly emulated Lincecum's motion, but there are statistical similarities. They both dominated the nation statistically and set records for strikeouts.

They are both considered small and slender for a power pitcher, if Bauer is taken by the third pick as projected he will be the smallest pitcher taken that high since the 70's. There is an extreme prejudice that a power pitcher needs to be 6' 4" and weigh 220 lbs.


You mention the looking for the next Larry Bird, which is valid. But Cole represents the continual drafting of the 7' + centers with no solid skills, because "you can't teach height" yeah Yao Ming is tall, but was he really the best player to draft that year?

Won't somebody think of his makeup???

Yao Ming isn't the best example, he was an excellent player when healthy; Hasheem Thabeet was drafted second overall simply because of his height.

yeah Yao Ming is tall, but was he really the best player to draft that year?

Yao turned out pretty well. You might want to cite Michael Olawakandi for that argument (or maybe Kwame Brown.)

Bauer sounds absolutely lovely, but tell me, do you see any flaws in him?

Matt Clement,

There are flops and there are flops...when you are talking #1 pick a player like Ben McDonald is a flop.

If Rendon is healthy, if he does not have a structurally damaged shoulder, and performs as expected, the Pirates and their fans will regret taking Cole, and will regret it even if Cole becomes another Verlander.

In other words, who would you take if given the choice between Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera?

The Pirates already have (3) high-ceiling pitchers in their organization. They certainly do not have a high-ceiling position player in the minor leagues and seem unwilling to draft one this year. And it's doubtful that the young players now in the majors include a hitter such as Rendon projects to be.

Rendon's injury might be the rationale the Pirates FO needed to defend taking Cole or Hultzen, pitchers they preferred in any case.

Yao turned out pretty well. You might want to cite Michael Olawakandi for that argument (or maybe Kwame Brown.)

Shawn Bradley wants to pat you on your adorable little head. There there little fella!

There are flops and there are flops...when you are talking #1 pick a player like Ben McDonald is a flop.

Looking at the list of #1 picks I don't think McDonald qualifies as a "flop." He's 16th in WAR among #1 picks (with Price, Hamilton and Justin Upton likely to pass him). The #1 picks have worked out as well as McDonald slightly less often than they have worked out better. Obviously you want to hit a home run with such a pick but the fact is that is a pretty rare event.

Yao Ming fits for me as he turned into a perfectly serviceable center, but that was the entirety of the upside that could be expected. The really outstanding centers have all had outstanding records before the draft.

I am not saying Bauer should be the first pick, I am saying that if Cole were 2" shorter and 20 lbs. lighter with exactly the same stuff and results he would be a fringey 3rd or 4th round pick. He is a number 1 pick in a large part because of his body type.

In other words, who would you take if given the choice between Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera?

Verlander every day and twice on Sunday. As great as Cabrera is I'd rather have to fill a first base hole than a starting pitching hole.

I think if Cole=Verlander and Rendon=A-Rod at worst it gets looked at like Olajuwon over Jordan, not Bowie over Jordan. Yeah you could have done better but you still landed a Hall of Famer so it's hard to be too upset.

I'm not knowledgeable about these guys but it seems to me that Cole is a pretty consensus 1/1A. This isn't Matt Bush to save a few bucks.

In other words, who would you take if given the choice between Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera?

Anthony Rendon is not Miguel Cabrera. At Rendon's age, Cabrera hit .294/.366/.512 in the majors with 33 HR. Rendon hit 6 last year (more in previous years, but even so, college is not MLB). Cabrera is much bigger and Rendon a much better defender, I don't see them as similar at all. Statistically, the guy Rendon (09-10) looks most like is Alex Gordon. Although one would expect Gordon to have turned out better than he did.

There have been 14 pitchers taken #1 overall. By WAR, McDonald (19.8) is 5th. Of the 4 ahead of him, Floyd Bannister, Tim Belcher, Andy Benes, and Mike Moore, none are all that far ahead of McDonald. Benes at 29.6 is at the top.

It is possible that David Price and Stephen Strasburg will pass all those guys, but the way pitchers get hurt certainly no sure thing. They both have the ability to pass all those guys and be the best pitcher drafted #1, but so did the pitchers listed above. They just couldn't last.

Interesting that in 40+ years of drafting not a single pitcher at #1 overall has even risen to a HOVG career. Best we get is the Hall of Decent.

none are all that far ahead of McDonald

When I say that I'm thinking that without looking up the stats, if you had asked me whether Benes or McDonald had a better career, I wouldn't know. They were drafted 1 year apart, made the majors quickly, had some decent years that were short of expectations, and didn't last especially long.

Looking at the stats, Benes had almost twice as many innings and wins the match on that alone. But McDonald does beat him 115-104 on ERA+.

Looking at the list of #1 picks I don't think McDonald qualifies as a "flop." He's 16th in WAR among #1 picks (with Price, Hamilton and Justin Upton likely to pass him). The #1 picks have worked out as well as McDonald slightly less often than they have worked out better. Obviously you want to hit a home run with such a pick but the fact is that is a pretty rare event.

Yeah, McDonald is actually a pretty average outcome for a #1 overall pick.

1. A healthy Yao is not a 'perfectly servicable' center, he's a superstar and easily worthy of the top pick in the abstract. For that matter, he's been arguably the best player from that draft (the other candidate is Amar'e (lower peak and, uh, career value/minute, but more durable) who went 9th (straight from HS)) and had a waaaay better career than the top college guys (picks 2-4: Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden)
Yao's best season: 27 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk, 52% fg, 86% ft. 8 All-Star games (helped by China voting). Not shabby...

2. I am saying that if Cole were 2" shorter and 20 lbs. lighter with exactly the same stuff and results he would be a fringey 3rd or 4th round pick. He is a number 1 pick in a large part because of his body type.
This is silly. I don't like Cole as the #1 pick, but that profile is still a first rounder, easy.
As said earlier, this isn't Matt Bush.

3. Though I think short pitchers are underrated, height/extension does matter for projection and deceptiveness.

had a waaaay better career than the top college guys (picks 2-4: Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden)

Big asterisk on that first one, of course.

Are the dbacks off of Hultzen at 3? I've been hearing that combo all spring.

Jay W: Yes, but his career wasn't off to that promising of a start anyway. Honestly, I think he'd've been a bit better than an average starter, but only a bit and that in and of itself was far from certain.

But Cole represents the continual drafting of the 7' + centers with no solid skills, because "you can't teach height" yeah Yao Ming is tall, but was he really the best player to draft that year?

Yes, he was, easily. Also, Yao does not fit this argument at all as he had multiple "solid skills" and would have been an NBA player even if he was a foot shorter (presuming some improvement in speed as he shrunk), imo. Yao was/is arguably the most skilled center in the NBA. He has easily the best jumper of any center and is also an extremely adept passer (not to mention his well known free throw aptitude). His favorite post moves also were/are very refined. Yao wasn't some big stiff like Thabeet or a guy who relied on physical superiority like Shaq. He had/has a game that any basketball purist would love. Also, he had an "outstanding record" before playing in the NBA, it's just that it was compiled in China and in International ball. For example, he was the dominant center in the 2002 World Championships (although that took place a few months after the draft). He held his own in the 2000 Olympics as a 20 year old on an overmatched team. And he averaged 32 and 19 on 72% shooting his last season in China.

So, Yao would be more analogous to, say, a Dutch pitcher who was 6'11 with tree trunk legs, threw 100 MPH with picture perfect mechanics, had flawless makeup and work ethic, dominated the World Baseball Classic, played well in the Olympics at a young age, dominated his domestic league to a totally unprecedented extent, then declared for the MLB draft. I think we can all agree that such a player would draw a large amount of interest from the scouting community.

Big asterisk on that first one, of course.

Not really. What happened to him was a shame but he was a classic good college player who wasn't going to make it as a pro. He was too small and unskilled for a team to entrust their whole offense to. He may have eventually improved but he showed almost no flashes of being a star that first year. He had that one triple-double early in the season and then only got double digit assists 2 more times the whole year. I think his ceiling was as an almost decent 3rd guard who a team would always be looking to upgrade.

I think that fastball command and equally importantly deception are very important things for a pitcher to have. Deception leads to better secondary offering results and fastball command leads to less meatballs in the center of the plate. I'd take Bauer over Cole myself due to these facts (assuming the fastball command scouting report is true). I think that pitcher health is very hard to predict so basing your draft pick on that is foolhardy.

Of course TINSTAAP so I'd go Rendon #1.

Over on minorleagueball there are guys saying that Rendon has structural damage to his shoulder which might make him fall in the draft.

thread on minorleagueball

Correction: Read the wrong line on Yao's best season - he only average 25 points and 9.4 boards per game that year (Yao played an unusually low number of minutes per game for a stud, 33.8 that year).
If you're a PER guy, the worst single season score he posted in his career was a 20.6 as a rookie (well, that and the 19.8 over 91 minutes this season) + he was a good (albeit limited) defender.

Heck of a player.

*****

Rendon: Sans injuries, he's the "consensus" top guy.

Cole is legit high-90s from what I've seen. He has good control though sometimes loses command in the strike zone.

Bauer can push high-90s but more frequently seems to live around 92. His motion is quite similar to Lincecum's and he has studied Lincecum intensely.