BBTF.org/m/scouting : Stark: Brett Lawrie bound for greatness

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

How the Red Sox set themselves up to win the scouting war | The Providence Journal

(www.providencejournal.com)

posted 1 week ago by Jim Furtado to red sox, sabermetrics, scouting, scouting reports | 42 comment(s)

Part one of a three-part examination of the Red Sox advance scouting system.The Red Sox are smart. What makes them smart isn’t a sabermetric slant. It’s a willingness to find and use any information they can find which can give their players an edge.

Here’s part two: Information overload has transformed the nature of advance scouting.

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1. outl13r posted on March 25, 2012 at 07:44 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

“Speed, power, attitude, hustle—and he’s got every intangible you could ever want in a player,” said another.

Don't forget that he's got great hands.

2. donlock posted on March 25, 2012 at 09:55 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

“He’s got more ability than George Brett, and I was George’s roommate in Kansas City,”

What does that even mean? The usual quote would be he has more potential that some established star.

Most young players have ability and potential. Their attributes may be similar to another player but why would you say he has more "ability"? Oh, never mind, it was Buck Martinez.

3. Best Regards, L.M. posted on March 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Boy, I can't wait to see him on the Yankees.

4. Random Transaction Generator posted on March 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Boy, I can't wait to see him on the Yankees.

Me, too.

Oh, wait, you dropped a word there. Let me fix it.

Boy, I can't wait to see him pound on the Yankees.

:)

5. flournoy posted on March 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

[Edited for immaturity]

6. TerpNats posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Boy, I can't wait to see him on the Yankees.

If it means Bryce Harper staying in Washington in 2019, be my guest.

7. Brian

posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

We didn't have to wait long for the obligatory photo of Lawrie. He had a picture taken of him acting immature at age 20 or so, let it go already. I have to believe if everyone had a camera on them at all times when we were all young that we'd all have some manner of stupid photo lurking in our past. What does it matter and why can't we ever discuss Lawrie without it popping up? At some point bringing that up is more evidence of your immaturity than his.

8. Best Regards, L.M. posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:26 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

If it means Bryce Harper staying in Washington in 2019, be my guest.

No, him too.

I can't wait to see them ALL on the Yankees.

9. Why Bloody Valdespin? posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:55 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Brian, you seem to not appreciate just how douchy Lawrie looks in that picture.

10. Boileryard posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:58 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

"In time," said Farrell, "as long as health is on his side, he's going to put himself in position for everybody to take notice of who Brett Lawrie is."

I just hope that people take notice of him for stuff he does on the field. He worries me.

11. Tuque

posted on March 25, 2012 at 12:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

At some point bringing that up is more evidence of your immaturity than his.

Well then I guess I'm immature, because I love that photo.

12. Walt Davis posted on March 25, 2012 at 02:13 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

#2 -- what an odd thing to find odd about that sentence. :-)

"Ability" in this context presumably meaning "natural ability" or "raw talent" but possibly meaning "performance ability at the same age".

What doesn't make sense in that sentence is how does being Brett's roommate provide extra expertise in judging Brett's ability ... unless of course Buck means "ability (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)".

13. Voros McCracken of Pinkus posted on March 25, 2012 at 02:46 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

“Oh my God,” said another.

And then took a long slow drag on his cigarette.

14. Horror posted on March 25, 2012 at 03:01 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Boy, I can't wait to see him on the Yankees.

This schtick is almost as old as #1.

15. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle posted on March 25, 2012 at 03:48 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I wonder if he'll be better than Eric Chavez or Eric Hinske. Maybe even Jason Heyward.

16. outl13r posted on March 25, 2012 at 03:51 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Since 1900, only a dozen other players have had an OPS that high at age 21 or younger, in a season in which they got as many at-bats as Lawrie got in 2011. There's not a Shane Spencer-ish fluke in the bunch.

Ten of those players are now in the Hall of Fame. An 11th (Albert Pujols) is a lock to join them. The 12th was Hal Trosky, whose spectacular career path was cut short by migraines.

There is only one other name on the list: Brett Lawrie. Whew.

The list posted w/TFA is actually 14 people long. Not sure why Stark chooses to ignore Joe Jackson and A-Rod.

Am I just expecting too much for a piece like this?

Another fun fact about this list, is that other than McCovey (192) and Lawrie (150), everyone else had at least 400 AB's.

17. Greg (U)K posted on March 25, 2012 at 04:02 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I wonder if he'll be better than Eric Chavez or Eric Hinske. Maybe even Jason Heyward.

Yes, no, and maybe.

18. Best Regards, L.M. posted on March 25, 2012 at 04:10 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

This schtick is almost as old as #1.

Yeah, well.

19. Horror posted on March 25, 2012 at 04:15 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Has Sam already turned on Jesus Heyward?

20. Voros McCracken of Pinkus posted on March 25, 2012 at 04:19 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The list of guys is a classic example of bad statistics. Lawrie meets the absolute minimum at each qualifier meaning that (based on this alone) Lawrie should be the worst of the bunch rather than representative of the group as a whole as the article implies.

Not that Lawrie isn't an excellent prospect, just that this is the sort of statistical thing that makes him look better than he is.

21. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle posted on March 25, 2012 at 04:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Has Sam already turned on Jesus Heyward?

I think Heyward has a better chance of being 2010 than 2011, going forward, with a guarded but realistic understanding that the man has never been healthy throughout any professional season, and that's a problem for his overall projection. I bring him up here as a recent example of people (including myself) wetting themselves over the HOF destiny of a kid that can't legally drink, and the inherit dangers therein.

22. What did Billy Ripken have against Elroy Face? posted on March 25, 2012 at 07:22 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

“Now obviously, he doesn’t have 3,000 hits or [three] batting titles or an MVP award, so he’s got a long ways to go. But he runs and he plays with the same kind of intensity as George did.

And really, how far is it from "runs with intensity" to "Hall of Famer" anyway?

23. Walt Davis posted on March 25, 2012 at 07:57 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

To drive Voros's point home ...

PA of 100-250, OPS+ of 130 to 170, age 21 or younger:

Lawrie
Whitey Lockman (at 18)
Zack Wheat
Luzinski
Braggo Roth (there's a name for you)
Joe Ward
Joe Mauer
Heinie Mueller
Joe Medwick
Alex Johnson
Rennie Stennett
Jiggs Donahue
Tony Horton
Bob O'Farrell
Ben Grieve

In fairness, Lawrie's OPS+ is at the top of that list and his PA are third so there's reason to think that list might undersell him.

24. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines posted on March 25, 2012 at 08:04 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Braggo Lawrie sounds like a good name, based on this historical comparison and his general air of immense arrogance. Better than "Jiggs" anyway.

25. zachtoma posted on March 25, 2012 at 09:55 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Yes, no, and maybe.

How can someone be better than Eric Chavez without being better than Eric Hinske? Also, I think everyone is a little too hot on Lawrie going into this year; he didn't make a giant leap forward last season, he played in Las Vegas. Hitting numbers in the PCL and Cal League should be taken with a grain of salt - I don't think Brett Lawrie is going to be a .350 hitter, I'm not sure he'll be a .300 hitter.

26. LionoftheSenate (Pirates v A's World Series) posted on March 25, 2012 at 10:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I don't think Brett Lawrie is going to be a .350 hitter, I'm not sure he'll be a .300 hitter.

Agree. Lawrie seems to be more of a .280/.365/.515 hitter. Nice player.

27. Greg (U)K posted on March 26, 2012 at 03:28 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

How can someone be better than Eric Chavez without being better than Eric Hinske?

Don't tell the Lawrie what he can't do.

28. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle posted on March 26, 2012 at 07:01 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

How can someone be better than Eric Chavez without being better than Eric Hinske?

Does Eric Chavez look like a walking, talking human thumb?

Well then.

29. Petunia inquires about ponies posted on March 26, 2012 at 02:07 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Braggo Lawrie sounds like a good name, based on this historical comparison and his general air of immense arrogance.

I'm on board. Braggo it is.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

How the Red Sox set themselves up to win the scouting war | The Providence Journal

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