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I had financial flexibility at the time due to the former preferred application of math, so I had the time and ability to put together a projection system.
Speaking of Heyward ... WTF Mr Peabody? bWAR already has him at +13 Rfield for the year. In 24 games. He's got 1.4 WAR, 1 WAA despite his 60 OPS+. He's on pace for more Rfield in one season than JD Drew had in his career. Is DRS headquarters in one of those states that legalized marijuana?
8. Results are “Stickier” In-Season than Season-to-Season
...Simply put, there was significantly less regression toward the mean for in-season stats than you would expect from the sample size, relative to season-to-season stats...That .400 first-half BABIP may be doomed next year, but players retain a surprisingly large amount of that bounce within the same season.
Heyward is the only reason Tulowitzki isn't leading the league in both oWAR and dWAR.
Yeah, it's a mistake to get hyper about WAR too early, given how volatile defensive data is in small sample sizes.
Part of this is that we often forget that the guy who puts up a really good year at 21 or 22 is likely not that good yet, he's just had a plus season.
How many consecutive years does Mike Trout have to do it before we decide that yeah, he really is that good?
Trout really is that good. He's just not going to develop into Bugs Bunny.
Nothing came of that at the time.
To make this fit better on the current internet, it should have been titled "10 things about creating projection systems that'll make you scream!"
Or, I got Pecota. Which projection system are you?
A certain so-and-so said "It would never be as good as Bill James." I still enjoy that.
"10 Secret Simple Tricks About Projections that the Experts Don't Want You To Know!"
I'm 40 and having been doing everything with SAS, SQL, and spreadsheets myself - I've got to dip my toes in other pools eventually...
"10 Secret Simple Tricks About Projections that the Experts Don't Want You To Know! You won't believe #7!"
But now there are slideshows that make you "like" their facebook page to see #1.
Is it any better?
Willie Mays never was significantly better than he was at age 23.
He also wasn't any better than he was at 34-35.
Let's see him win an MVP before we get too excited.
Who will Mike Trout finish 2nd to in the MVP vote this year?!
It might be worth mentioning here that the (free) "Sabermetrics 101" massive online course that Andy Andres will be teaching also serves as a basic introduction to R (and some variant of SQL). I'm not suggesting that Dan needs to take Sabermetrics 101, but those of us with less knowledge of the nuts and bolts might view it as a chance to dip our toes into R while also learning to deal more successfully with the data dumps that occasionally appear around here.
1. Query languages (SQL, etc.) all have limitations compared to programming languages. They are designed for people who are close to being decent programmers, but not quite there. If you're going to use one, first make sure that it can do all the things you need it to do. One thing that it will almost certainly NOT do is allow you to write anything on the database. This is by design. Query languages are supposed to provide a safeguard against users who are not exactly computer programmers messing up the database.
It seems to be more of an art than a science to be able to figure out when you need to nest a subquery, and when you should break out a temporary table.
Smalltalk, a pretty abstract object-oriented language
Python is one I need to check out. I thought it was a programming language but I see there are a number of statisticians using it these days so obviously there's more to it than that.
Or GenStat, EPI-info, etc. if you're on the health side. Some specialty packages although I'm not sure how much future those have.
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