I would be surprised if it isn't.

It's more than twice as much as the usual away support ticket. The North American comparisons don't really work because the fan base is much different. Corporates don't go away.

effin Bradford! I'd say there's a better than even chance they'll be in Europe next year, no?

Only if they win the trophy. Beaten League Cup finalists do not get a Europa League place.

Getting to the final, which no fourth tier side has done since 1962, would be an achievement in itself. Bradford have only won 1 major trophy - the FA Cup in 1911.

Only if they win the trophy. Beaten League Cup finalists do not get a Europa League place.

I thought if the League Cup Champions make Champions League then the runner-up gets to go Europe League. That's how Birmingham made it a couple years ago even though they got relegated.

No, Birmingham won the trophy.

The FA Cup is different: the runners up do get a place if the winner is a CL qualifier (eg Millwall in 2004).

The North American comparisons don't really work because the fan base is much different.

Could you explain, I've read this in articles but wasn't sure what they meant. You hear a lot that the Emirates is dead compared to Highbury. I assumed that meant a lot of the fanbase from Highbury was priced out of tickets and only the wealthy folks go, and they tend to sit more politely (like it seems they do in the States, aside from the NFL, I guess).

It's funny that Bradford have taken 3 straight games from Premiership teams in the League Cup, but are just 8th in League Two. I guess that's a playoff/knockout for you.

Damnit I was confused. I forgot they won it (on a disaster of a game by Arsenal) and it was the FA Cup, not the League Cup.

Could you explain, I've read this in articles but wasn't sure what they meant. You hear a lot that the Emirates is dead compared to Highbury. I assumed that meant a lot of the fanbase from Highbury was priced out of tickets and only the wealthy folks go, and they tend to sit more politely (like it seems they do in the States, aside from the NFL, I guess).

I think what ursus means is that the away support (in this case Man City's) has a different demographic from a usual group of fans and there is no US comparable.

Away supporters tend to be younger as a group than the home supporters, and are more likely to have been drinking before the game (because they are younger, and also because they tend to arrive in the vicinity of the ground earlier - if you go on a coach organised by the away team, there is no beer allowed on board but you will be at the ground at least 90 minutes before kick off in most cases). These two factors, plus travel costs, mean that they have less spending power. Hence a 62 quid ticket is more likely to be purchased by home fans - particularly in London, where prices are higher generally - and away supporters will balk at the cost. The game is also live on TV, giving even less incentive to travel.

As for the Emirates generally, there is no doubt that the home support for Arsenal has got older (and quieter) and wealthier on average than, say, 20 years ago, but then again Highbury itself was never known as a ground with loud home support. Away supporters used to nickname it the "Highbury Library".

Another away support oddity is standing for the whole game, even in sections with seating. I think many PL clubs make away fans sit but this is common in the divisions below.

405, while it is true that the Emirates fan base has become considerably more corporate since the move from Highbury, that tends not to be the case for travelliing fans, particularly those from outside of London.

Damnit I was confused. I forgot they won it (on a disaster of a game by Arsenal) and it was the FA Cup, not the League Cup.

Nearly there. Brum beat Arsenal to win the League Cup in 2011. Memorable in part for Barry Ferguson's charming behavior after they scored the winner, slapping Koscielny upside the head.

Not much transfer news today. Walcott looks to sign a huge contract with Arsenal. If Spurs sign all the players they're linked to they'll have spent 140 million pounds and have 40 midfielders on the roster. Southampton are working on bringing in Coutinho from Inter which would be a hell of a signing for them. I'd say that one was nuts but they were able to sign Gaston Ramirez, so who knows? Everyone in Serie A wants to play with Ricky Lambert, I guess. Danny Welbeck may be going out on loan to Reading. The Qataris want David Beckham to play in their league for god knows what reason. If the Qataris want to waste money on soccer, they should give it to me to create my Shooty FC project. I won't let them down!

Belated beverage for Richard.

Stuart Holden played in his first reserve game for Bolton and could be back in the first team by February.

Two random things:

- Anyone know how much the MLS salary cap is set to increase this year? The MLSPU's website unfortunately still links to the old CBA, and the roster rules on the main site haven't been updated to 2013 yet.

- 45-minute Gazza documentary with James Richardson narrating. The Football Italia bits are great, and some of the footage they pull is real neat. (In Bed with Maradona tweeted this yesterday.)

- Anyone know how much the MLS salary cap is set to increase this year? The MLSPU's website unfortunately still links to the old CBA, and the roster rules on the main site haven't been updated to 2013 yet.

Up from 2.81M to 2.97M according to this.

Stuart Holden played in his first reserve game for Bolton and could be back in the first team by February.

From a USMNT standpoint I am fine with him staying the hell off the field for the summer. But man it would be great to have him back. Klinsmann would probably still start Jones and Williams though.

As for the Emirates generally, there is no doubt that the home support for Arsenal has got older (and quieter) and wealthier on average than, say, 20 years ago, but then again Highbury itself was never known as a ground with loud home support. Away supporters used to nickname it the "Highbury Library".

Well, there was never the Highbury Roar like at Anfield, but Arsenal tickets have been expensive for a long time. Nick Hornby complains about it in Fever Pitch, which is 20 years old now.

The bigger the game the better the atmosphere at Arsenal. It's been my experience that fans have tended to save up their money for the bigger games. Tt's when Arsenal are playing a lower-table side that the atmosphere is really terrible and often ###### and negative if Arsenal don't go 2 up within 10 minutes.

I don't know if away fans are always younger (Arsenal away tickets are so hard to get I can't imagine young people getting them unless they're long-time season ticket holders), but they are always the most hardcore of fans. I saw Arsenal play at White Hart Lane and with a handful of exceptions (including a legit Mother of the Year candidate*) they were diehard Gooners.


* Casually walking around outside White Hart Lane with your young daughter in Arsenal tops is a legitimate example of child endangerment.

Southampton are working on bringing in Coutinho from Inter which would be a hell of a signing for them. I'd say that one was nuts but they were able to sign Gaston Ramirez, so who knows? Everyone in Serie A wants to play with Ricky Lambert, I guess.

I'm not 100% sure where it's coming from, but the Saints appear to have to some money to spend. Maybe the savings generated by their youth setup producing first team starters (Lallana, Shaw, and Ward-Prowse are all academy products who've contributed this season) allows them to spend a bit more on foreign imports than a similar club in their position might otherwise be able to support. They also have a pretty good size stadium and a history of filling it up when they're in the top flight, so I imagine their gate receipts aren't half bad.

The bigger the game the better the atmosphere at Arsenal. It's been my experience that fans have tended to save up their money for the bigger games. It's when Arsenal are playing a lower-table side that the atmosphere is really terrible and often ###### and negative if Arsenal don't go 2 up within 10 minutes.

Not a phenomenon unique to Arsenal supporters, to be fair.

What does everyone think of Lampard? He is obviously still a good player but its not like Chelsea is bereft of midfielders, and you can't beat age. Frank doesn't seem the type to be happy taking a pay cut and being a rotation/bench player.

Aren't there enough Man City fans in London that 3,000 away tickets shouldn't be a huge problem? Coming down on the train/bus is obviously another added expense, but 62 pounds shouldn't be too much for a club with the amount of supporters City has.

Saints are still owned by the Liebherr Estate, which has a couple of billion dollars at its disposal.

They may have decided that some judicious transfer spending in this window will increase the value of the club to potential buyers by a greater amount.

I'm not 100% sure where it's coming from, but the Saints appear to have to some money to spend. Maybe the savings generated by their youth setup producing first team starters (Lallana, Shaw, and Ward-Prowse are all academy products who've contributed this season) allows them to spend a bit more on foreign imports than a similar club in their position might otherwise be able to support. They also have a pretty good size stadium and a history of filling it up when they're in the top flight, so I imagine their gate receipts aren't half bad.

That and, I guess, buying Ramirez and Coutinho isn't much of a risk as they'll get their money back if they go down and if they stay up the increased tv revenue kicking in next year will pay the freight for them. What's smart about what they're doing as opposed to QPR is that they're looking to buy players they can sell on if things don't go as planned. No one is going to buy Jose Bosingwa from QPR. Of course, the hard part is getting these players to agree to come over.

Coming down on the train/bus is obviously another added expense, but 62 pounds shouldn't be too much for a club with the amount of supporters City has.

Heh! My impression on my trips to London is that there are more Wolves fans there than City fans. (Speaking of which, when I went to Rough Trade records they were selling copies of The Blizzard at the counter and I blew the salesclerk's mind--a Wolves fan--by knowing what it was. He said he didn't mind Spurs, thankfully enough.)

Good points in #420 and #421. I hadn't thought of the resale angle for the club itself, but of course that can only be helped by (a) staying up and (b) having a handful of salable assets on-hand.

I'm going to the Blizzard event next week, wocka wocka.

There are hardly any City fans in London, if the amount of people I see in City tops is any guide. Plus your average City fan is going to have several opportunities to see City in London, so paying £62 for it might not be so appealing when they might be playing Palace in the Cup two weeks later, QPR at the end of the month, Tottenham in April and Reading in May.

Stuart Holden indeed managed to play a whole 70 minutes without getting hurt again. True Bolton fans will also be happy that David Wheater was supposed to play the game but then got dropped from the lineup because there's a limit on how many over-21s can play in the "development team" at once. Fans do not like Tim Ream very much so Holden is still crucial for inculcating pro-USA views in the northwestern part of Greater Manchester.

Also backup keeper Andy Lonergan did a great job in the cup game against Sunderland. As a 30-year-old who started many years for Preston it seems pretty natural to consider making him the top guy, and selling the not-especially-leaderlike Adam Bogdan to Spartak Moscow or somewhere. Bolton sell a player for more than $500,000 about once every six years, so these opportunities must be taken.

What does everyone think of Lampard?

Still a good player but as long as Chelsea keep the old guard they are never going to transition. Or be a team a neutral fan can root for. And then one day Lampard, Terry, Cole and Cech will all be gone and it'll be too late. Of course, changing managers every 7 months means you are just operating on short term plans anyway.

I assume there are fans of every team in London, maybe not as many as Man U or even Barcelona but they have some history and a pretty big fan base.

I'm all about the getting rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. Its Roman's money and I don't see the harm in keeping Frank around another year, unless he becomes a malcontent. Even now the story has to be a little distracting, but the English press is going to do what they do.

I've been futzing around with the Opta numbers (I got a Fantasy Football Scout membership to get access), and I've created a kind of cludgy team rating number. Basically, I put together projected goals scored and projected goals allowed estimates based on shots on target, shots off woodwork, and "big chances". (I weight "big chances" more heavily for goals allowed than for goals, it seems to matter more on the defensive side.) I adjust for home and away. I haven't yet adjusted for opponent.

As expected, the outcomes look pretty normal except for Liverpool, who remain great in all the numbers that correlate with goals but not so great at the actual production of goals. QPR is probably the other big outliers. QPR's attack is probably overrated a little here, but it's quite notable that their defense isn't allowing too many shots on target or big chances. Manchester United are leading the league because of their insane rate of goal scoring, which is significantly a function of their insane rate of shot conversion. That's probably partly unsustainable and partly the Van Persie and other great finishers factor. City, despite their forward talent, are converting opportunities at a rate below league average. You have to think that will improve.

MCoA's cludgy team ratings, expressed in a likewise cludgy attack % better than league + defense % better than league:

+.97 Manchester City
+.63 Manchester United
+.51 Liverpool
+.40 Everton
+.39 Tottenham Hotspur
+.35 Chelsea
+.23 Arsenal
+.05 Swansea City
-.00 Fulham
-.03 West Bromwich Albion
-.11 West Ham United
-.13 Southampton
-.15 Stoke City
-.25 Queens Park Rangers
-.27 Norwich City
-.34 Newcastle United
-.40 Wigan Athletic
-.47 Aston Villa
-.60 Sunderland
-.78 Reading

The system is also not terribly impressed with Stoke City. Their defense is good, solidly above average, but they're basically tied for fewest goals allowed with Man City and Chelsea, and their underlying numbers do not suggest they're truly elite. I was surprised to see that Chelsea didn't rate above Everton/Tottenham/Arsenal. Maybe there really is a race for third after all.

Sunderland were truly dire for much of the season, and they've improved in the last month or so. They overall still rate terrible, but perhaps Martin O'Neill has fixed what ails them and they'll be better soon. Newcastle should theoretically get better when their starters get healthy, but they've been quite legitimately bad by this measure. I'm not sure what to say about Southampton, that's just surprising.

Because it's so close to midseason, and because I got bored, I didn't put together a strength of schedule adjustment. The main team I'd expect to be affected by a schedule strength adjustment are Tottenham, whose extra games have been against league-worst Reading and league-almost-worst Aston Villa.

OMG! OMG! OMG!

Pfft.

+.97 Manchester City
+.63 Manchester United
+.51 Liverpool

Told you guys Liverpool is close to being good!

What does everyone think of Lampard? He is obviously still a good player but its not like Chelsea is bereft of midfielders, and you can't beat age. Frank doesn't seem the type to be happy taking a pay cut and being a rotation/bench player.

The pay cut is the real issue. I want Lampard around next year, but only if his wage bill goes down. I think that he'll eventually bend to be a rotation player.

Lukaku stays at West Brom. I'm torn as I really want him back in blue as statistically he would be our best striker, but its obvious that Chelsea isn't yet ready to give up completely on Torres so his minutes would suffer. I haven't felt as confident about a young Chelsea player signing since Essien. I think that he's going to be world class very soon.

Interesting work, MCoA.

Liverpool's rating doesn't surprise me as much because even as they've struggled in terms of table position the last few years, they've remained in the top handful of teams defensively over that period. Based on nothing but a hunch, I feel that defending is less prone to the twin whimsies of form and confidence than scoring. It's more of a team effort, more easily influenced by coaching, and less reliant on individuals being in form. Liverpool have been consistently good to great at preventing goals, even while their ability to actually win games has eroded. Now that Suarez has been on a tear of late, I would have expected Liverpool to rate pretty well by any pythag-like measure.

I'm not sure what to say about Southampton, that's just surprising.

Their goalkeepers are ####### awful.

The pay cut is the real issue. I want Lampard around next year, but only if his wage bill goes down. I think that he'll eventually bend to be a rotation player.

If the last sentence is true why does the first sentence need to be true? There is no salary cap and Abramovich ain't going to tell his Manager of the Month he can't buy Falcao or whoever simply because he's paying Lampard $8 million rather than $4 million (or whatever the right numbers are). If Lampard is willing to be what Giggs has been with ManU I don't think the money should be a concern for Chelsea fans.

Their goalkeepers are ####### awful.

Yeah, I bet that's it. This method doesn't account for shot-saving. Southampton hasn't allowed many more quality opportunities than the league average, but they've let tons of those balls into the net.

Lukaku stays at West Brom. I'm torn as I really want him back in blue as statistically he would be our best striker, but its obvious that Chelsea isn't yet ready to give up completely on Torres so his minutes would suffer. I haven't felt as confident about a young Chelsea player signing since Essien. I think that he's going to be world class very soon.

I agree. He's pretty one-dimensional, but it's an immense dimension. You can go a long way by being an absolute handful physically and finishing like a terminator.

Anecdotal evidence time! I have watched almost every Spurs game this season, and I have not seen anyone else even come close to just outright bullying Jan Vertonghen the way Lukaku did in West Brom's game at the Lane. I know he was coming on fresh as a sub after Shane Long had run the Spurs defense around for an hour, but jeez. Vertonghen is usually the one winning the positional battles with his strength, but Lukaku was shrugging him off like he was barely there.

If the last sentence is true why does the first sentence need to be true? There is no salary cap and Abramovich ain't going to tell his Manager of the Month he can't buy Falcao or whoever simply because he's paying Lampard $8 million rather than $4 million (or whatever the right numbers are). If Lampard is willing to be what Giggs has been with ManU I don't think the money should be a concern for Chelsea fans.

Chelsea do seem to be paying attention to FFP and their wage bill now is 176 million a year. It turns out the only reason they were profitable last year is due to some one off accounting maneuvers and, of course, their run to the CL finals. They will most definitely be in the red again this year.

I disagree somewhat on Liverpool. They have a team full of players who simply cannot put the ball in the net (Downing being a perfect example). I'd say that when you have players with a track record, their actual scoring rate is a better predictor than "shots on target" or "big chances" or anything else. Some players (Heskey, Downing) will find ways not to score, others (van Nistelroy) will find ways to score.

Gab Marcotti on how Yakubu doesn't sell jeans.

Thanks for the post MCoA that was interesting, also I liked Mattbert's observation regarding Southampton's goalkeeping. They are aware of how bad it is and have been after Butland since last summer. It reminds me of when defensive ratings in baseball started getting refined and it was evident that there was a certain level a major league manager was willing to tolerate in terms of playing a guy with a stone glove.

It does not surprise me that Liverpool score well in MCoA's system. They were built to win the third order championship. I enjoy analytical stuff about soccer, but for the most part my feelings on it mirror those I have of the gridiron football analytics and to a lesser degree the basketball analytics. Hazardous if you put much weight in it in terms of putting a team together.

While my Twitter feed is blowing up with HoF reaction I got the Soccer by Ives note that "Stuart Holden positive after latest Bolton reserve appearance" and immediately thought Holden had failed a drug test.

I missed this tactical year-in-review piece by Michael Cox from the other day. I love this closing bit about the false nine.

But if the false nine has gone mainstream, how long before the football hipster complains about the term being overused? Well, here goes: Fabregas was a false nine at the start of Spain’s Euro campaign, as he was essentially another central midfielder – Andres Iniesta was generally higher up the pitch. By the end of the tournament, he was just a midfielder playing as a striker – making runs in behind, occupying space in the box. Shelvey, similarly, wasn’t interpreting the striking role differently, he just played out of position in a selection crisis.

2013 started with Harry Redknapp – the notorious chalkboard ignorer, a man who has played Peter Crouch upfront at three separate football clubs, masterminding an unlikely victory at Stamford Bridge by playing Adel Taarabt as a false nine.

When that happens, you know the false nine has sold out.

Rangers continue to bring the crazy

Wow. Chelsea dominated the half and then one bad touch by Ivanovich and Michu takes a goal.

Rangers continue to bring the crazy

That's not crazy. That's just the same old story, it's been a constant refrain from the Old Firm for at least ten years.

The funny thing is Rangers thinking anybody in England would care.

Iain Macintosh is one funny SOB. This was fantastic twittery:

It's almost three years since Fernando Torres was good at football.

Demba Ba keeps stretching, looking plaintively at Benitez, stretching some more, making big kitten eyes, doing a bit of a jog...

Demba Ba has hurriedly fashioned an 'I SCORE GOALS, GAFFER' banner and is holding it above his head while making a noise like an owl.

The banner worked. Ba is on. A good thing too, Stage Three was a coordinated firework display that would spell out 'PUT ME ON' in the sky.

Swansea get a second

Danny Graham scores ANOTHER late goal. That's three games in row he's banged one in right around the 90-minute mark.

That was like a grade-school poacher's goal. Just hang around by the keeper and hope someone puts in a dumb back pass. Ivanovic, man, you've got a manager trying to figure out a defensive rotation for the next two weeks, and you basically string your own "play Terry and Cahill instead" banner across the penalty box.

If Torres really is Abramovich's personal project, what are the chances that Roman decides to walk away now that his last two personal projects (Torres and Sheva) have done nothing but cost him money and earn him the opprobrium of the supporters?

If Torres really is Abramovich's personal project, what are the chances that Roman decides to walk away now that his last two personal projects (Torres and Sheva) have done nothing but cost him money and earn him the opprobrium of the supporters?

Who knows what goes through that guy's head. It's a fascinating question--what does Roman want? Love? Respectability? Glory? It would make a great novel, I think, to imagine what goes through his head. I kind of get what Joe Lewis and Sheik Mansour and the Glazers are after, but what's in it for Abramovich? It's almost as if he's taking capitalism to its logical extreme as some sort of performance piece.