We're getting screwed!! I'm amazed at how expensive sports, concert, theater tickets are now compared to what I remember them to be 20 years ago, but I keep paying.

Though FWIW in Colorado the supporters' tickets are the cheapest tickets. I think they're $13/game if you have a season ticket. There's just a lot fewer supporters here than in places like Seattle and Toronto. I sit in the midfield seats which face are $45, I think in a season ticket package they're $37/game. There are discount midfield seats for supporters on the other side of the stadium, but those seats get the direct sun/sun in their eyes at sunset.

A SSS next to Turner Field? Yes please.

Sandro off.

That's not good news.

QPR are looking like a different team than when I saw them a couple of weeks ago. Not much going on in the box but they look comfortable on the ball and seem to be counter attacking well.

The two Philllips chances are better than anything Spurs have done. Spurs have the possession advantage but they've really done very little in the way of attacking goal.

The Defoe shot / Ade rebound in the 5th minute or so was probably the best chance of the game. But nothing since that.

Yeah, JCC stood on his head for those 2 shots. Wish there'd been more than just that.

Meh.

You would think Spurs would find something on the overlap, but I don't recall anything on the wings. 'Arry has definitely fixed the defensive mentality of the team.

You would think Spurs would find something on the overlap, but I don't recall anything on the wings.

Naughton offers zilch on the overlap and in the final third in general. Walker was too busy letting SWP run in behind him every ten minutes, I guess. Okay, Walker did get forward reasonably well but it was mostly inside. He just barely missed on his free kick, too. That was a great hit.

Both fullbacks for Spurs were pretty poor defensively today.

Sandro off. That's not good news.

@sandroraniere: Hi guys, I'm in some pain at the moment! On my way to the hospital for a scan now so fingers crossed it's good news...thanks for all support

Boy, wouldn't that be the icing on the turd cake for today.

Everton-Swansea is a snooze fest. The rest of the games don't appear to be much better.

I really miss Modric and Van der Vaart in games like today's. Spurs just don't have a one touch passing game right now and Adebayor's form remains terrible. This would have been a good game to have Dempsey start but I imagine AVB doesn't want to destroy what's left of Adebayor's confidence. After a run and some breakfast I'm feeling pretty good again. Let's open a pack of soccer cards!

Pack 1:

Stiliyan Petrov
Denis Straqlwhatever
Niko Kranjcar
Karim Frei
Rafael

Argh. That's worse than Spurs - QPR!

Pack 4:

Tim Howard and Ledley King. Pack of the day. That's it. Done.

How many packs did you buy, dare I ask?

163 minutes of soccer so far today on my tv and I'm yet to see a goal.

How many packs did you buy, dare I ask?

Ah, it was a gift. Looks like about 24 packs. 12 Premier League and 12 Euro 2012 packs. I got the coveted Marouane Chamakh! Fantastic.

Southampton with the points in a relegation six-pointer. I only saw about half an hour of that on a very erratic stream. I also saw most of QPR vs Spurs on TSN. So that's three football matches so far this year.

163 minutes of soccer so far today on my tv and I'm yet to see a goal.

You should have been watching Reading - West Brom.

3 goals in the last 10 minutes to win the game. This is the most optimistic I've been about the team all year!

Twitter is on fire with commentary about Jonathan Walters's 2 own goals and 1 missed penalty against Chelsea. New Wikipedia page

Koscielny suddenly thought he was playing American football and tackled Dzeko in the box.

Really dumb from Kompany there. Lucky for him Man City's next 3 games are fairly soft.

Another EPL look at expected versus actual performance, similar to the work done by MCoA and SG. One thing I'd like some clarification on, from the link:

Also, Liverpool and Tottenham rank low in terms of PDO, which means an improvement in terms of points-per-game is just around the corner.

I'm assuming the implication here is that some combination of LFC's and THFC's save and shooting percentage is below expectation -- is that right?

One of the metrics he uses, RSR, seems to adjust for strength of the opposition. I wonder if it also adjusts for situation/scoreline. It's something he's discussed in the past -- a team down a goal, all else being equal, is going to see more of the ball and have more shots vis-a-vis a game that's tied -- but I don't know if it's included here. Anecdotally, I think that adjustment would make Liverpool look worse in the rankings -- today's game as well as the thrashing at the hands of Villa are good examples of Liverpool piling on shots after being down a goal or two.

Interesting, CWS. If I'm reading it right, the blogger is using raw shots rather than shots on target. My playing around with the data has found shots on target to be a better predictor of goals (looking at seasons divided into odd/even weeks) than shots alone. I don't think all shots on target are equal, of course, but I think they're good bit equal-er than shots are.

I doubt anyone is adjusting for situation/scoreline, unless they are independently wealthy. As far as I can tell, within-game splits for advanced stats are not available from any sources but the full Opta database.

On the continuing subject of Liverpool, I'm really talking myself into their being a legitimately good club. (As a caveat, I should admit that I'm a three-time fantasy owner of Ricky Nolasco, so as much as I try not to oversell the utility of counter-intuitive advanced stat results, I usually talk myself into them eventually.) First, Liverpool's +7 GD is hardly much removed from those of the 4th place contenders. Second, Liverpool's struggles to convert chances into goals are actually not their biggest problem statistically - they're more prone to allowing more goals than you'd expect based on opportunities than they are prone to failing to convert opportunities. And I think we all agree that the Liverpool back line and central midfield are strong. Reina hasn't been the best, but he's not some huge liability. I think they're going to solidify the defense in the second half, and even if the attack never gets any closer to matching their underlying data, defensive improvement alone would bring them up toward the Tottenham/Everton/Arsenal/(Chelsea?) line.

Third, am I the only one who thought they looked really good with Daniel Sturridge up top? Suarez in a free agent position behind a central striker was so dangerous that Ferguson had to substitute a defender into central midfield purely to mark him. The value of Sturridge to Liverpool isn't so much that he's the greatest player ever as that he's effectively taking minutes from replacement-level youth team attackers like Sterling and Shelvey while pushing Suarez into a more natural position for him. Further, there should be knock-on effects where Suarez dropping deeper allows for much improved linkage between defense and attack.

Also, as I suffer through a total #### week in fantasy (screw your faster than expected healing, Petr Cech's groin), I'm playing around with a punt for Sturridge. Just a league average striker should rack up big numbers with all the chances Suarez creates.

Porto and Benfica are 2-2 after 18 minutes! Malaga are playing really well against Barca but one lazy backpass allowed Messi to score.

I think MCoA is right on the merits of the Sturridge/Suarez partnership, but they have so little talent elsewhere on the field. None of the rest of the team would be out of place on a handful of mid-table teams.

My fourth football match of the year involved Fiorentina (the team I used to watch every weekend a couple of years ago, and have followed off and on for almost twenty years now) and Udinese. It did not end well.

Stevan Jovetic, whom I remember as a promising youngster who needed to work harder at getting past defenders, is no longer a youngster, and therefore no longer promising, and still can't get past defenders.

I'm honestly not sure I like this team as much as the 2008-10 version whose ups and downs would set the tone for my week. We'll see.

Jovetic is still getting back into match shape after being out for quite a while. You shouldn't take today's performance as a measure of his current level.

No situation adjusted analysis yet; it remains a goal of mine, but something I probably won't tackle for a couple months.

Also agree on MCoA's note about shots versus shots on target. I go a bit further than SOT alone, but they certainly represent a solid framework by themselves with a correlation of .81 this season and .87 last year. That's about a full tenth better than plain shots.

Re: Liverpool

I think they are pretty clearly a solid team and capable of challenging for 4th this season. They really had some bad breaks early, losing to United and drawing City and Everton in games that could have been wins. Statistically they have been near elite almost every game. My viewings agree with the statistical sentiments although I do feel they lapse too much defensively occasionally. Sturridge, while flawed, should be a major upgrade over players like Shelvey and Suso and allow for Sterling to be rotated and rested against specific matchups.

Of course, it all depends upon Suarez. He has been elite this season, much improved over his performance last year. If this continues, they will be a handful for any of the non-Manchester teams to deal with.

Re: I think MCoA is right on the merits of the Sturridge/Suarez partnership, but they have so little talent elsewhere on the field. None of the rest of the team would be out of place on a handful of mid-table teams.

Gerrard can still play and Sterling has skills although probably shouldn't be relied upon weekly. Lucas is solid and Agger and Johnson can defend. They aren't overflowing with skills, but they aren't atrocious either. And again, if Suarez plays like this he can make up for a lot of deficiencies elsewhere.

No situation adjusted analysis yet; it remains a goal of mine, but something I probably won't tackle for a couple months.

What's your data source?

Don't have one yet. Will try and figure it out.

Real Madrid are 18 points behind Barca, and only 21 points above relegation.

I haven't seen Liverpool play much, but they were terrible in the first half today. I saw it as a contest: who would be worse, Ashley Young by himself or LFC as a team.

Obviously LFC improved a lot in the second half. Part of that was Sturridge. Part was the change in formation consequent to Sturridge coming on. Part of it was Utd sitting back a bit too much. But I'm inclined to agree that the talent level isn't top of the table. Maybe it's just a case of failing to get the right line-up, but I'd be leery of betting on them going forward.

Also only three points above having to play a Champions League qualifier and six points ahead of being out of Europe entirely.

At this point in the season last time around, they were five points clear of Barcelona and also ahead on goal difference.

This season their goal difference is 19 goals short of Barca's (though it is still better than Atleti's or anyone else's).

Barcelona have completed the first half of the league program with 18 wins and a draw.

Barcelona have completed the first half of the league program with 18 wins and a draw.

Clearly Pep was holding them back.

-Juve drew at Parma after losing home to Sampdoria last week, which puts the scudetto back in play a little - Lazio now only three points off the top, Napoli five, Inter seven.

-It's interesting how much Barca are dominating The League, since they seemed a little short of past Barca sides in the games I saw in the Champions League. I guess they were really short in defense for those games, and they've got most of the first-choice back line fit again.

-I'm assuming that it's a horrible cliche for someone who is only beginning to sort of follow Serie A or The League to be rooting for Atletico and Napoli, but the Madrid chase for 2nd and the re-opening of the scudetto chase have me rooting for both those sides. If only I could watch the games on tv.

-I'm assuming that it's a horrible cliche for someone who is only beginning to sort of follow Serie A or The League to be rooting for Atletico and Napoli, but the Madrid chase for 2nd and the re-opening of the scudetto chase have me rooting for both those sides. If only I could watch the games on tv.

I think all good and decent people are rooting for Napoli and Atletico. Having to choose between Juve and Lazio? Yikes!

Transfer news!

Not really, but if Newcastle pull off signing Remy and Sissoko their relegation problems will be over with. Also, who goes back to England first, Modric or Song?

Liverpool strike me as a bit of a bully team. Not in the sense that they are physically rough but just that when they play a team that isn't very good they play very well and when they play a good team they get a little lost out there. The announcers mentioned on the broadcast that they hadn't beaten a team in the top half this year and that makes sense to me.

It's interesting how much Barca are dominating The League, since they seemed a little short of past Barca sides in the games I saw in the Champions League.

I agree with this. I wonder if it's just a function of a lack of motivation. Winning La Liga obviously is meaningful Barca knew from day one they were getting through the group stage so I don't think there was a lot of need for them to have the motor cranked all the way up. The one game where there was any potential urgency was probably that second matchday game against Benfica which they won 2-0. Once they had those 3 points in the bag there was no real moment where they were in any danger. I think we'll have a good handle on them when they play Milan. I won't be at all surprised if they really step on Milan's collective throat and have a 2-0 lead after 30 minutes.

Also, who goes back to England first, Modric or Song?

Mourinho

My lack of goodness and decency has never been in question, but I'm guess I'm adding/subtracting to it. I can't root for Napoli. And between Juve and Lazio, it's easy to root for Juve. Easy. Atletico is where it gets really hard for some reason, especially with Betis so easy to root for. As mentioned above, RM could have to experience some embarrassing European qualification round, and Betis is essential to that, very laudable, circumstance.

It's interesting how much Barca are dominating The League, since they seemed a little short of past Barca sides in the games I saw in the Champions League.

Hey, you can only play as good as your opponent lets you. Celtic is just that good. /trying really hard to keep a straight face

A friend of mine, and Spurs fan, has a moan about Premiership away-ticket prices on his blog.

I doubt anyone is adjusting for situation/scoreline, unless they are independently wealthy. As far as I can tell, within-game splits for advanced stats are not available from any sources but the full Opta database.

The PDO* reference means this person is familiar with hockey metrics, and you could do for soccer the same way they do for all the hockey stats, scraping all the game logs and calculating them from the PBP. In hockey the fashion is to ignore everything when the game is tied in order to correct for the possession change, but I hate that. The hockey background might also be the source of using just shots rather than shots-on-goal, since that is a better predictor of possession and the more useful for hockey.

*Which is shooting percentage + save percentage and is supposed to trend to 1000 in hockey. I'm very surprised that it's apparently about the same in soccer.

I've always hated juve like any decent person, but I'm gay for Pirlo.

and Spurs fan

I think he's THE Spurs fan!

Speaking of fandom and such in the UK, I like how fans there say "I'm Wolves" or whatever if you ask them what club they support. It's a nice little linguistic touch, I think.

A dive, or did he just anticipate contact and lose his balance?

Either way it was a terrible call and a bad break for Villa.

It's a nice little linguistic touch, I think.

One of the linguistic things the Europeans I work with do that I like is they say they are "married with" rather than "married to" a person.

A dive, or did he just anticipate contact and lose his balance?

I wish the replay had rolled through a bit. The reaction of the player can often give you some good insight. If he immediately looks to the ref then he was diving, if he hops up then it's just a slip and fall and he knows it. The brief bit we saw he was looking at the ball, not the ref which makes me think it was just an accidental tumble that the ref blew.

The brief bit we saw he was looking at the ball, not the ref which makes me think it was just an accidental tumble that the ref blew.

I thought so, too. The Villa defender sticks his leg out and Rodriguez looks like he wants to avoid it and then falls down clumsily in the process. A bad break for Aston Villa.

A dive, or did he just anticipate contact and lose his balance?

I take Jose's point in #598, but on the evidence of the highlight Shooty linked it seems highly unlikely that it was anything but a dive.