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    • Thursday, April 18, 2013

    Castrovince: Lester, Buchholz Re-emerge With Guidance From Farrell, Nieves

    (mlb.mlb.com)
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    posted on April 18, 2013 at 02:00 PM by villageidiom to john farrell, pitching, red sox, sox therapy  |  7 comment(s)

    This was the best hope among Red Sox fans regarding the team’s fortunes in 2013: that 2012 would be an outlier for the starting rotation; that the return of John Farrell would mean the return of performance from Lester and Buchholz to their former peak; and that any projections that included any influence of 2012 would be assessing the rotation too negatively. While it’s less than one month, it’s fun to see that hope be fulfilled to date.

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    51. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 19, 2013 at 03:37 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The biggest thing for Bogaerts over the past year has been an increase in the perceived likelihood that he'll stay at shortstop it seems. I wonder how much of that is Bogaerts and how much is the fact that shortstop is no longer "blocked" by Iglesias but it certainly is good news.
    52. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 19, 2013 at 03:39 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    BA includes scouting grades as well. Bogaerts' power is graded as a 70 and Bradley's defense at 75.
    53. Darren  posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:05 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Are the grades behind a pay wall?
    54. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:12 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I don't think so. Here's the link.
    55. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:13 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Speier sez the Sox and Cards are the only two teams with at least 4 prospects in the top 50.
    56. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 19, 2013 at 04:21 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    There is a bunch of stuff at BA's site, some behind the wall some not but well worth the visit. There is a short blurb behind the wall where Callis calls Webster the best bargain in the top 100. Webster was drafted in the 18th round and signed for $20,000 on the basis of having a live arm but playing primarily shortstop in high school.
    57. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 25, 2013 at 12:12 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    BPro Top 101 is out. Red Sox on the list;

    Bogaerts - 12
    Bradley - 27
    Barnes - 38
    Webster - 69

    Also on the semi-prospect news according to Nick Cafardo DLR hit 100 in the 9th inning yesterday.
    58. Dan posted on February 25, 2013 at 05:52 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Webster struck out 4 in 2 innings today while hitting 99 MPH on the gun. I didn't realize he had that kind of fastball.
    59. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:20 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Neither did I. Between that and DLR yesterday I'm hoping the two of them aren't going to blow out their arms trying to prove they were worth the big package that was traded for them.
    60. Dan posted on February 25, 2013 at 06:30 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    De la Rosa is established as an upper 90s guy though. He was sitting 96-97 and touching 100 before he blew out his elbow too.
    61. Darren  posted on February 25, 2013 at 08:49 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Hey, did you hear that Webster hit 99 today? Oh.
    62. Dan posted on March 02, 2013 at 06:40 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    JackieBradley Jr has been quite impressive so far. How much deeper would a Red Sox lineup look with him batting lead off? Lets have a hypothetical look:

    CF JBJ
    2B Pedroia
    LF Ellsbury
    DH Ortiz
    1B Napoli
    3B Middlebrooks
    C Salty
    RF Victorino
    SS Drew

    Against lefties you'd probably shift Ellsbury to CF and play Gomes, or just rotate which one of Ellsbury, JBJ, or Ortiz gets a rest.

    Personally I'm a fan, though I don't know how keen Ellsbury would be on playing LF (at least this time it wouldn't be for a 40 year old to play CF nor would it put him in harm's way from charging Beltres).
    63. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 02, 2013 at 03:35 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Alex Speier is the best of all possible beat writers. New article up on Rubby and Webster.
    "The feel he has for offspeed pitches, particularly when you have that type of velocity or fastball you can go to, he's obviously showing us the ability to pitch without being predictable," said manager John Farrell. "A couple of 3-2 counts, right-handed, left-handed, he's not only willing but goes to [the changeup] with confidence and when you combine that with the power, it's really a rare combination. And just with two outings in spring training, he's not been afraid to go to any pitch in any count. It's been very encouraging the way he's thrown the baseball."

    De La Rosa's explosive fastball inspires radar (gun) love and scoreboard watching to see how close to triple digits it can come. That pitch alone would make him a significant prospect.

    But the fact that his secondary pitches are so good that he sometimes favors them as much as, if not more, than the fastball? That's a bit ridiculous, not to mention unfair to opposing hitters who are trying to gain their timing in spring training.

    The 23-year-old right-hander, as Farrell noted, showed three swing-and-miss pitches on Friday, something that suggests not just a starter's arsenal but the potential to pitch in the upper half of a rotation (depending on command and pitch efficiency -- elements that could sabotage not just that ceiling but even could jeopardize a future in the rotation).
    That #### is getting plugged into the CFBPS posthaste. And he adds a good discussion of the value of minor league depth.
    64. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 02, 2013 at 03:36 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Personally I'm a fan, though I don't know how keen Ellsbury would be on playing LF (at least this time it wouldn't be for a 40 year old to play CF nor would it put him in harm's way from charging Beltres).
    If the Sox were to jump Bradley all the way to the majors, I'm sure he'd play either right or left, not center. Most likely left. That would be one hell of a defensive outfield.
    65. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole)  posted on March 02, 2013 at 07:19 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Alex Speier is the best of all possible beat writers. New article up on Rubby and Webster.


    It's funny, but while I was reading this article I was thinking, this isn't that great of an article. Then I realized that that's how good he's been: his worst article is better than most sportswriters best articles. This article coming from Shaughnessey would have been hailed as some kind of breakthrough.
    66. Dan posted on March 02, 2013 at 11:09 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    You think they'd move Bradley to a corner over Ellsbury? I figured they'd play Bradley in CF, but I don't imagine it would make a huge difference. Outside of 2009, Ellsbury has consistently been around 5-10 runs above average in CF according to pretty much all of the advanced metrics. And I don't mind throwing out the shitty year because he was visibly worse on defense that year for whatever reason. Even including the awful 2009 stats, his career UZR/150 in CF is 6.5. So even with the rave scouting reports on his defense, it's hard to imagine JBJ would project as a better CF defender than Ells, other than almost certainly having a better throwing arm.

    In any case, an outfield of JBJ, Ellsbury, and Victorino would be incredible on defense, regardless of who plays which spot.
    67. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on March 03, 2013 at 12:59 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Regardless of where these guys start the season I'm feeling a hell of a lot Better about the future of the Boston Red Sox than I did about a week ago. In fairness I'm in Florida and drunk so that may be part of it but it feels like its been so long that there was positive news related to this baseball team.
    68. tfbg9 posted on March 03, 2013 at 01:19 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I see the chances of Bradley coming north with the Big Club as really really slim, barring a few injuries.

    Agree its fun to have kids to anticipate the debut of...but Lester and Buchholz and Lackey and Dempster's years are what will make or break our season. That and the number of PA's we get from our DH and "1Bman" and Middlebrooks.



    69. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on March 03, 2013 at 08:26 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I agree that Bradley won't come north but I think he's playing himself into a situation where he's at the top of the list if someone gets hurt.
    70. villageidiom posted on March 03, 2013 at 08:46 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Regardless of where these guys start the season I'm feeling a hell of a lot Better about the future of the Boston Red Sox than I did about a week ago.
    Didn't Webster and de la Rosa come over in the same trade that is being used as evidence that Cherington doesn't know what he is doing?
    71. Dan posted on March 03, 2013 at 10:38 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Who is bad mouthing the Punto Trade? The trades that make Cherington look like an idiot are the Melancon and Bailey trades. You could probably add giving away Youkilis for nothing as well.
    72. TomH posted on March 03, 2013 at 01:42 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I went to the Sox game on Saturday the 23rd. I was telling my dad to watch Iglesias, who came in the game at short in the middle innings; how this guy was a fantastic defensive shortstop, but just could not hit.

    So he throws away a ground ball, and then clubs one over the wall in left-center. Good thing Dad does not love me for my brilliant analysis.
    73. Dan posted on March 03, 2013 at 02:47 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    JBJ is getting into a lot of games. They've started giving him some innings in the corners too. I still don't expect to see him come north, but I think there is a definite possibility that he will.
    74. Darren  posted on March 03, 2013 at 03:31 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I still really enjoy Speier, but has he gotten a little verbose?
    75. Darren  posted on March 03, 2013 at 03:37 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Not sure if this means anything, but Bogaerts played 3B in WBC today.
    76. Dan posted on March 03, 2013 at 03:49 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    He was always scheduled to play 3B in the WBC. They played him at third a bit before he went too, to give him some reps there. I suspect he'll be back at SS when he comes back to ST.
    77. Darren  posted on March 03, 2013 at 04:29 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Who is bad mouthing the Punto Trade? The trades that make Cherington look like an idiot are the Melancon and Bailey trades. You could probably add giving away Youkilis for nothing as well.


    Lots of people have badmouthed that deal. The argument is that they gave up talent that, even if overpriced, could not be replaced in the market.
    78. Dan posted on March 03, 2013 at 04:38 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Dale Sams is the only person around here that I can recall hating on that trade.
    79. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole)  posted on March 04, 2013 at 12:58 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    JBJ is getting into a lot of games. They've started giving him some innings in the corners too. I still don't expect to see him come north, but I think there is a definite possibility that he will.


    He's getting into a lot of games because Victorino is playing for Team USA in the WBC. He'll start the year in AAA. No reason to start his arb clock running until next year. If he performs well, it makes it that much easier to let Ellsbury walk. Maybe, maybe, he gets called up mid-season to replace Ellsbury if he's traded at or near the deadline.
    80. Dan posted on March 04, 2013 at 02:27 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I don't really see JBJ as a reason to let Ellsbury walk. There's room in the OF for both of them, if Ellsbury is worth keeping. If he puts up a season even 75% as good as 2011 was, I'd pay up to keep him, with the intention of moving him to LF when JBJ is ready. This team currently has no major longterm commitments, so they really shouldn't act like they can't afford to keep Ellsbury. The "no contracts past 3 years" plan can't last forever...
    81. villageidiom posted on March 04, 2013 at 07:32 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    What if "75% as good as 2011" is the same as 2011 rate stats but misses a month and a half with an injury? Is that who they want to go past 3 years with?
    82. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on March 04, 2013 at 07:55 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'll admit I hated the trade and I still don't like it. Webster and DLR are making me think I might change my tune on that one though.
    83. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 04, 2013 at 08:40 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    What if "75% as good as 2011" is the same as 2011 rate stats but misses a month and a half with an injury? Is that who they want to go past 3 years with?
    Certainly the merits of re-signing Ellsbury depends on his performance, his salary demands, the competition, and the medical staff's evaluation of his likely future health. The point that Dan was responding to had to do with whether Bradley's possible emergence as an MLB contributor would be a major factor in the decision, and I agree with Dan that it shouldn't be. I can dream on an Ellsbury-Bradley pairing in the outfield.
    84. villageidiom posted on March 04, 2013 at 10:16 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The point that Dan was responding to had to do with whether Bradley's possible emergence as an MLB contributor would be a major factor in the decision, and I agree with Dan that it shouldn't be. I can dream on an Ellsbury-Bradley pairing in the outfield.
    I agree as well with that part: Bradley doesn't have to be part of the calculus. But I was inferring he thought if they need to go beyond 3 years to keep Ellsbury, they should. That's all I was contesting. If Ellsbury can't stay healthy this year, they shouldn't go beyond 3 years with him.

    Now, if he can't stay healthy this year, maybe nobody would go three years, in which case my point is moot: they would have the potential to land him, and at no more than 3 years. If he's healthy and performs 3/4 of the way between career norms and 2011, they'd probably have to go beyond 3 years to keep him.
    85. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 04, 2013 at 10:30 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    But I was inferring he thought if they need to go beyond 3 years to keep Ellsbury, they should. That's all I was contesting. If Ellsbury can't stay healthy this year, they shouldn't go beyond 3 years with him.
    I don't disagree in general, but nitpick I must. You can't expect any ballplayer to go a full season without taking some small injury. One 15-day DL trip shouldn't disqualify Ellsbury, so long as it's nothing that's expected to linger. At the same time, if the medical staff evaluates that Ellsbury is too much of an injury risk, even after a full 150-160 games in 2013, that has to be a major, if not determinative consideration.

    Also, I just want Ellsbury to be part of this club. I really like the kid. I'm not entirely rational on Ellsbury and Pedroia.
    86. villageidiom posted on March 04, 2013 at 10:49 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I don't disagree in general, but nitpick I must. You can't expect any ballplayer to go a full season without taking some small injury. One 15-day DL trip shouldn't disqualify Ellsbury, so long as it's nothing that's expected to linger.
    If you must nitpick, then go back to the post I made saying if he missed a month and a half (or, essentially, 25% of the season). Little injuries here and there are part of being a ballplayer, and I agree that it's not really part of the picture.

    I think we agree in general, but are attaching qualifiers to each other's qualifiers, which isn't really what I plan to continue with. It's a lot more fun to consider that while we're dreaming about Bradley, Rubby, Webster, and Bogaerts, we have barely talked about Barnes. I think the CFBPS just did a double-take.
    87. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 04, 2013 at 10:54 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Ooh, Barnes had a good outing? I missed it.
    88. Matt Clement of Alexandria posted on March 04, 2013 at 10:57 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Also, I want to write up a post about the likely use of the shift defense by the Sox this year. Brian Butterfield was the architect of the Jays shift, and he's going to be running something similar this year. (See this article by Jon Paul Morosi). In order to write something up, though, I really want full season data on the use of the shift. I couldn't find anything in a quick google. Have there been recent studies done about the recent, massive expansion of the shift defense and its effects?
    89. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit posted on March 04, 2013 at 02:10 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Bryce Brentz was running drills with the minor leaguers this morning. Didn't seem to have any issues moving of any kind of limp.
    90. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole)  posted on March 04, 2013 at 05:37 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    When did Barnes pitch? I can't find any record of it....
    91. villageidiom posted on March 04, 2013 at 09:06 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I didn't say he pitched. I just said we've barely talked about him. Second half of last year he was the only regular bright spot for Red Sox fans, and all our spring training giddiness about other prospects hasn't included much about him.
    92. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) posted on March 05, 2013 at 01:15 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Britton, you idiot. How did he not get a DUI?
    93. Nasty Nate posted on March 05, 2013 at 01:26 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    How did he not get a DUI?


    The report I read said that he did.
    94. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) posted on March 05, 2013 at 01:37 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It's only in the headline of Craig C.'s post. I obviously didn't need to comprehend the headline.

    EDIT: Again, what an idiot.

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