I think a 30-year Tsy at 3.13 is one of the great sucker bets of all time. It's only because the US is so broke that they keep issuing short-maturity debt. If they were smart, the Tsy would be selling 30-year bonds like hotcakes. Hell, I'd introduce 40-year and 50-year bonds and see how dumb yield hungry investors really are.

I emphatically agree with you. If you think 3% is a good deal, I'm willing to issue all kinds of debt at that price. Not too tough to beat inflation with a little elbow grease.

Bernanke's academic speciality is the Depression. He's doing everything possible to make sure that the economy stays in his intellectual comfort zone.

I think a 30-year Tsy at 3.13 is one of the great sucker bets of all time.

Well, I certainly agree with this.

It's only because the US is so broke that they keep issuing short-maturity debt.

Def do not agree with this. Operation Twist was designed to increase the amount of short-maturity debt as another means of growing the money supply.

Bernanke's academic speciality is the Depression. He's doing everything possible to make sure that the economy stays in his intellectual comfort zone.

I think this is a severe misread of Bernanke's policies and demonstrates a certain amount of ignorance of the Fed's decision making process. Bernanke took heroic efforts to prevent a second Great Depression, and basically no one gives him any credit.

Def do not agree with this. Operation Twist was designed to increase the amount of short-maturity debt as another means of growing the money supply.

The maturity of Tsy debt has exactly zero to do with the money supply. Whether the Fed buys $100B of 30-yr bonds or $100B of 1 yr bills it increases the money supply by the same amount.

The only effect is on the shape of the yield curve, and the gov't cost of interest.

The only reason we don't have more inflation is a broken banking system (especially over-concentration of deposits in 5 financially weak, over-regulated, monster-banks), and lack of demand because no one has any confidence in this economy.

You've got to throw lack of supply in there as well (if you're talking about demand for loans). It's been much harder for your average schmoe to get a loan for anything than it was 5 years ago for all the obvious reasons.

You've got to throw lack of supply in there as well (if you're talking about demand for loans). It's been much harder for your average schmoe to get a loan for anything than it was 5 years ago for all the obvious reasons.

But lack of supply is due to the FUBAR banking system. These huge, crippled, banks are hording reserves b/c the regulators are crawling all over them.

If you broke the big-5 banks into 15 well-capitalized regionals (and a handful of global transaction banks/processing companies), you'd see a big uptick in supply.

I think this is a severe misread of Bernanke's policies and demonstrates a certain amount of ignorance of the Fed's decision making process. Bernanke took heroic efforts to prevent a second Great Depression, and basically no one gives him any credit

.

Bernanke and monetary policy are the only actors on stage, as Congresses and Presidents fail to make necessary and long overdue decisions on fiscal policy. I wouldn't call his actions (or those of NY Fed chair Tim Geithner) heroic unless you are comparing them to the bottom feeders in the House, Senate and White House that have learned far too well (per de Tocqueville) that they can bribe the public with the public's money

Bernanke and monetary policy are the only actors on stage, as Congresses and Presidents fail to make necessary and long overdue decisions on fiscal policy. I wouldn't call his actions (or those of NY Fed chair Tim Geithner) heroic unless you are comparing them to the bottom feeders in the House, Senate and White House that have learned far too well (per de Tocqueville) that they can bribe the public with the public's money

Um, okay. That's a different point of view.

Of course it is. It reflects light.

In the infrared, sure. If you want a reflector in the visible, use aluminum or silver. Or a dielectric stack.

Excellent point. Dielectric stacks have even more inherent value. I would like to purchase $50,000 of dielectric stacks, please.

Um, okay. That's a different point of view.

Hey, the bond vigilantes are like the little guy in the white suit who hasn't done anything yet. Soon he will, and it's going to be awesome.

Tshipman:

My problem with what is happening with monetary policy is per snapper that banks are borrowing at zero percent from the Fed and not loaning the money.

Excellent point. Dielectric stacks have even more inherent value. I would like to purchase $50,000 of dielectric stacks, please.

I don't have $50,000 of dielectric stacks. However, I do have a controlling share in a bridge--connects the Wall Street area with the island featuring some of the most expensive homes in the country. Can I interest you in that?

I think a 30-year Tsy at 3.13 is one of the great sucker bets of all time. It's only because the US is so broke that they keep issuing short-maturity debt. If they were smart, the Tsy would be selling 30-year bonds like hotcakes.

Actually, the amount of debt which is in 10yr or greater maturity bonds's has gone up significantly since 2008. So yes, Treasury is locking in a lot of low yields.

I like how the price of gold is somehow the best measure of inflation.

Of course it is. It reflects light.

For some reason, I can't stop laughing over this.

I grew up in Miami, it's an awful place in every respect that doesn't involve nightclubs.

YR--if you're still around and feel like answering, why was that? I ask because while I've only been twice, and mostly to Miami Beach, but the climate was so incredible it would make up for a lot of blecch.

YR--if you're still around and feel like answering, why was that? I ask because while I've only been twice, and mostly to Miami Beach, but the climate was so incredible it would make up for a lot of blecch.

I'm obviously not YR, but I've also lived in Miami.

Miami and Miami Beach have long been treated as synonymous, but the two are worlds apart, and that's still true even after the recent building and redevelopment boom (finally) tranformed downtown Miami from flyover country to an actual destination. Despite the glamorous reputation, the city of Miami is one of the poorest and most corrupt major metros in the country. As of a couple years ago, there was an average of $2– or $3 million in Medicare fraud per day in Miami. And a billion-dollar transit tax that was passed about a decade ago has resulted in less mass transit.

By Miami standards, the stadium deal was actually quite good. The city at least got something tangible for the money being spent, rather than the money disappearing into the pockets of various well-connected cronies. (Miami International Airport infamously went years without luggage carts because the commissioners were fighting over who would get the kickbacks.)

I think a 30-year Tsy at 3.13 is one of the great sucker bets of all time.

I've been hearing some version of this for twelve years, and of course the bleating has been even louder over the last five years. What's weird in this particular instance is that the same person was responsible for this comment:

We may well be in Euroland now where 1-2% growth is a good year.

My problem with what is happening with monetary policy is per snapper that banks are borrowing at zero percent from the Fed and not loaning the money.

Okay, it is somewhat reasonable to point out that they're not loaning *enough* money out. But there aren't a ton of people looking for loans either. Interest rates for housing are at a 30 or 40 year low. You can say that there should have been more strings attached re: voluntary writedowns, but that wasn't really the Fed's area. Most of the stagnation there is due to DeMarco, the head of the FHFA, who has been extremely resistant to aggressive writedowns.

You can say that there should have been more strings attached to the money, but the fact that we're arguing about that and not the total collapse of the finance sector is evidence of Bernanke's success.

I've been hearing some version of this for twelve years, and of course the bleating has been even louder over the last five years. What's weird in this particular instance is that the same person was responsible for this comment:

Where's the contradiction?

You can have 1-2% real GDP growth with 5% inflation and then a 3.3% 30-year bond sucks really badly as an investment. Or you can have 3-4% growth with 5% inflation, and a 3.3% 30y yield still sucks. Or 2% growth with 3% inflation, and a 3.3% 30y yield still sucks.

There are lots of ways for a 3.3% 30y yield to suck, and very few ways for it to be good. I mean, yields now are lower than during the Great Depression where you had deflation boosting your real i-rate dramatically.

TS:

The only strings attached to the expansion of the federal money supply increase are the ones that we are pushing on.

We need writedowns, failures, lawsuits against internal lawyers who papered the crap sandwiches sold as quality securities, end of the community reinvestment act, etc.

And if banks haven't gotten healthy enough on the spreads with zero risk of borrowing from the fed at zero and then buying US government bonds at a 2% + spread over the past few years, they will never make it back. Let 'em crash!

It makes me long for the days my father ran an S&L under regulation Q, minimal SIPC insurance and no multifamily lending.

The only strings attached to the expansion of the federal money supply increase are the ones that we are pushing on.

We need writedowns, failures, lawsuits against internal lawyers who papered the crap sandwiches sold as quality securities, end of the community reinvestment act, etc.

And if banks haven't gotten healthy enough on the spreads with zero risk of borrowing from the fed at zero and then buying US government bonds at a 2% + spread over the past few years, they will never make it back. Let 'em crash!

Amen to that.

I think this is a severe misread of Bernanke's policies and demonstrates a certain amount of ignorance of the Fed's decision making process. Bernanke took heroic efforts to prevent a second Great Depression, and basically no one gives him any credit.

Paul Giamatti did a great job playing Bernanke as a humble voice of reason in Too Big To Fail, which did a good job of showing the behind the scenes stuff in 2008. I think I may be the only one who saw it, though.

I grew up in Miami, it's an awful place in every respect that doesn't involve nightclubs.

I lived in Orlando for a spell a few years ago, and sometimes had to go to Miami for business (and as a pass-through for vacation destinations). It was quite odd to see, on a Tuesday afternoon, dressed-to-kill 20-somethings walking down Lincoln Road to the clubs.

YR--if you're still around and feel like answering, why was that? I ask because while I've only been twice, and mostly to Miami Beach, but the climate was so incredible it would make up for a lot of blecch.

8 months of summer is fun when you're 12 and want to play baseball all year but I got tired of sweating year-round. The whole area is a huge slab of asphalt. There are crowds everywhere, meaning you're perpetually dealing with hot, cramped, grouchy people, many of whom drive like half-wits, and that isn't even counting all the nonogenerians on the road. People are ####### *rude*. The beach and the club scene are great, really top-notch, and I'd say if you were 25 looking for an amazing few weeks come on down, but I did that scene for years, if you're doing the same crap at 35 you were doing at 25 you've probably screwed up somewhere along the way.

Still better than living in Memphis, but that's not a high bar to clear.

I lived in Orlando for a spell a few years ago, and sometimes had to go to Miami for business (and as a pass-through for vacation destinations). It was quite odd to see, on a Tuesday afternoon, dressed-to-kill 20-somethings walking down Lincoln Road to the clubs.

South Beach was a preening freakshow 20 years ago during my hardcore clubbing days and it's exponentially worse now. Don't get me wrong, it was a heap of fun especially if you're a sexy, stylish dancing machine like Young YR, but in terms of family-oriented quality of life I find Dade county in general to be the pits.

Also my favorite dance club was bought by pornographers who shoot movies there now.

Also my favorite dance club was bought by pornographers who shoot movies there now.

Which one? I've fallen a little behind on the South Beach scene over the past couple years.

The Cameo, I think.

The Cameo, I think.

Are you sure? I thought that building had some sort of landmark status, and it seems like a very expensive property to be used only as a porn set. (It was my favorite as well, so I'll be disappointed if you're right.)

EDIT: Looks like The Cameo is alive and well.

re you sure? I thought that building had some sort of landmark status

Well, if it wasn't before, it sure is now.

Also my favorite dance club was bought by pornographers who shoot movies there now.

you make it sound like that's a BAD thing

you make it sound like that's a BAD thing

Porn would actually be a step up for many of the places in South Beach, but not the one we're talking about.

The most bizarre part of Marlins Park is their attempt to bring a bit of SoBe to the park in the form of The Clevelander. But mere mortals can't just walk in, you need to buy a ticket to "watch the game" from inside that cave. That is assuming that you're not frolicking in the lap pool or dancing with the scantily clad mermaids.

Then there's the cognitive dissonance for guys who think of baseball to avoid going over the edge during romantic encounters. Hey, bring the whole family! The mind boggles.

All thanks to the largesse of the taxpayers of Florida. (Yes, the State of Florida kicked in a third(?) of the stadium financing so my money is tied up in there as well.)

My sister lived in Miami for 12 or so years, South Beach, and moved from there to Petoskey, Michigan. I frequently ask her what we all did to deserve such treatment.

Are you sure? I thought that building had some sort of landmark status, and it seems like a very expensive property to be used only as a porn set. (It was my favorite as well, so I'll be disappointed if you're right.)

EDIT: Looks like The Cameo is alive and well.

I never said it was just a porn set, it's still a club but they shoot porn in the upstairs apartments (you do remember those doors upstairs behind the balconies yes?). Just look at the link you cited - did The Cameo have lap dance days on their schedule back when you attended?

IIRC it was purchased by the same group of smut peddlers that made Kimbo Slice world famous in the fighting world,

Cameo has been owned by the Opium Group for several years, and they're not "smut peddlers." In fact, the top hit when Googling "Opium Group" and "Kimbo Slice" is a story about Kimbo Slice complaining he was treated like crap at a club owned by the Opium Group.

Either way, it's not a big deal. I just doubt they could be shooting porn at the Cameo without there being some stories about it. As you know, the clubs in that building were largely responsible for putting South Beach on the map way back when.

(A little trivia for the people bored by this tangent: The Cameo is located next to Ace Ventura's apartment in Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, and it made a — ahem — cameo in the movie.)

My sister lived in Miami for 12 or so years, South Beach, and moved from there to Petoskey, Michigan. I frequently ask her what we all did to deserve such treatment.

A good friend from college was from Petoskey. He told me during the summers it was either working at some tourist-based industry or at the plastic bag factory and that was it.

Cameo has been owned by the Opium Group for several years, and they're not "smut peddlers." In fact, the top hit when Googling "Opium Group" and "Kimbo Slice" is a story about Kimbo Slice complaining he was treated like crap at a club owned by the Opium Group.

Meh, if I'm wrong I'm wrong, my interest in either pornography or clubbing is enormously attenuated in my dotage. There was an article in the New Times, I think, covering this story in the early-aughts that brought it to my attention but I must have recalled the details incorrectly. Since The Cameo is briefly visible in Ace Ventura (he lived in the apartment complex next door) I've now lost a fine anecdote. Shame on you.

@74--thanks, YR. Yeah, it doesn't sound like all that much fun.