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    • Wednesday, April 24, 2013

    Team-building with Billy Beane and Theo Epstein | Red Sox Blog | The Providence Journal

    (blogs.providencejournal.com)
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    posted on April 24, 2013 at 04:13 AM by Jim Furtado to billy beane, moneyball, theo epstein  |  0 comment(s)

    Some good stuff.

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    1. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 01:57 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    The Cubs are on their way. . . .to 100 losses.
    2. DL from MN posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:15 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I am glad the Twins weren't interested with a $5.5M base, especially on a 1 year deal. With that kind of guarantee they should get an option.
    3. Hack Wilson posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:19 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Well Scott knows that if he pitches decently he will be traded to a contender at the trade deadline-good incentive for him.
    4. Walks Clog Up the Bases posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:30 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I forgot Scott Baker existed and so my mind immediately defaulted to Jeff Baker when I read the headline.
    5. WillYoung posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:37 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'll miss Light Rail Baker even if he was despised by most Twins fans (whose opinions are formed by Bert Blyleven). Wish they could have kept him, but that base is way too high.
    6. Brian C posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:41 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So here's a serious question - does 1 year/$5.5 million seem "way too high" for anyone but Twins fans?
    7. DL from MN posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:45 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    He's coming off surgery, will be limited to 150 innings or less and is unlikely to be effective until June at the earliest. What would you pay for that?
    8. Brian C posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:55 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    He's coming off surgery, will be limited to 150 innings or less and is unlikely to be effective until June at the earliest. What would you pay for that?

    It's hard to say (and are your speculations even true here?), but in this day and age it hardly seems unduly profligate to me. Even if he pitches 150 average innings I think $5.5 million sounds reasonable on the FA market ... I think the days of getting starting pitchers with a track record for much less than that are over.
    9. SteveM. posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:55 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Two more starters to go. With no MLB ready pitching in Iowa, the Cubs needed to sign at least one more starter, a couple of NRI's, and some for the AAA rotation. Unless they plan to give the fans the Casey Coleman experience again.
    10. RJ in TO posted on November 13, 2012 at 02:59 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Scott Baker is about the flyballiest pitcher in the majors. I'm not sure if Wrigley is a great fit for him.
    11. Everybody Loves Tyrus Raymond posted on November 13, 2012 at 03:48 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    12. DL from MN posted on November 13, 2012 at 03:53 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Tommy John surgery isn't speculative. It happened last April. There's a 12 month recovery so he is unlikely to pitch much in spring training.
    13. Topher posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:05 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    $5.5M base salary seems high to me for just one season. I would have expected the contract to be much higher on incentives than base.

    Understanding that a healthy Scott Baker doesn't sign a one year contract, but in a hypothetical does he get more than $12M if he was healthy? For a pitcher that is quite possibly damaged goods in terms of quality and/or innings, getting that much guaranteed seems like his agent did a nice job for him.
    14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:16 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So here's a serious question - does 1 year/$5.5 million seem "way too high" for anyone but Twins fans?


    Honestly, it seems like a huge bargain to me. $5.5M is practically Kevin Correia money.
    15. Der_K posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:22 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    At first glance, it sounds good - but I'm not sure how well I (we?) can assess contracts to guys coming off injury. Seems like the $ offered conveys some info about how well rehab is coming along - info I need to evaluate the $ offered.
    16. DL from MN posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:36 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It is entirely possible that Baker isn't really ready for prime time until after the July trade deadline. He's not a good pitcher to buy if you're looking to flip. As was mentioned in 10 he's also homer-prone when he's off.
    17. Kiko Sakata  posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:40 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    in a hypothetical does he get more than $12M if he was healthy?


    I was thinking $12m is around the going rate for average free-agent starting pitching. A healthy Scott Baker historically is at least that, maybe a bit better (based entirely on his ERA+ numbers on BB-Ref). If you can expect 150 IP, that's maybe 3/4 of what you'd like to see in a healthy guy and I suppose you'd want to knock off a couple of million more for downside risk on quality. But even with all of that, I'm closer to Vlad - $5.5m for 1 year of a surgically-repaired average starting pitcher seems like a good deal to me.
    18. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:41 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It is entirely possible that Baker isn't really ready for prime time until after the July trade deadline. He's not a good pitcher to buy if you're looking to flip.

    On the other hand, if the Cubs are still committed to losing lots of games for rebuilding purposes, he's a guy they could flip after he makes only two or three starts, instead of them being burdened with four whole months of a pitcher helping them win games they would rather be losing.
    19. Walt Davis posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:47 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Baker's K and K/BB are a lot better than I realized. (HR/9 not so much) You can find plenty of worse contracts but given the injury and given he wasn't exactly super-durable before that, this doesn't look like a bargain to me. Last year the Cubs got the equally good and totally health Maholm for 1/$5 with a $6 option. B-R lists Harang as his top comp and, healthy, he got 2/$12 last offseason. But then Bronson Arroyo got 2/$23.

    I'm fine with it, he's this year's Maholm signing (the first of them at least) and will get flipped at the deadline if he's having a decent season.
    20. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 04:59 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'm closer to Vlad - $5.5m for 1 year of a surgically-repaired average starting pitcher seems like a good deal to me.

    For a team that is going to lose between 90 to 110 games in the lone season they'll have him?
    21. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 05:02 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'm fine with it, he's this year's Maholm signing (the first of them at least) and will get flipped at the deadline if he's having a decent season.

    For what? Even if somehow he is having a decent season what team is going to pay retail for a pitcher that isn't going to pitch much during the back half of the season? Any team that trades for him will be getting around 30 or so innings out of him.
    22. Greg (U)K posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:24 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I'll miss Light Rail Baker even if he was despised by most Twins fans (whose opinions are formed by Bert Blyleven). Wish they could have kept him, but that base is way too high.

    Do Twin fans really not like him? I haven't followed closely, but I've always thought of him as the most reliable of the parade of generic white dudes they seem to pump out in that rotation.
    23. Kiko Sakata  posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:41 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    For a team that is going to lose between 90 to 110 games in the lone season they'll have him?


    Well what's the alternative use of that $5.5m? The Cubs are obligated to show up and play 162 games and they're required to have somebody pitch those games. I'd rather see Baker start 15-20 games than Chris Volstad or Casey Coleman. I'm not aware of any worthwhile minor leaguers that he'll be blocking. And I don't know Tom Ricketts personally, so I really don't care if he has $5.5 million less to buy a vacation home or whatever he'd be inclined to do with it. What free agent is now suddenly out of the Cubs' reach because of the extra $5.5m hit to their 2013 budget?
    24. Kiko Sakata  posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:43 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Even if somehow he is having a decent season what team is going to pay retail for a pitcher that isn't going to pitch much during the back half of the season? Any team that trades for him will be getting around 30 or so innings out of him.


    I was under the impression that his lack of innings will come at the front end of the season, because he's still rehabbing, rather than at the back end because of a Strasburg-style shutdown. I thought that the trade concern from the Cubs' perspective is that he won't be fully healthy early enough to build up significant trade value by the end of July.
    25. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:44 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    For a team that is going to lose between 90 to 110 games in the lone season they'll have him?


    Yea, the 2013 Cubs could be as bad as the 2012 Athletics or Orioles.
    26. DL from MN posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:45 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I really like Scott Baker but I don't think the Twins are going anywhere with just him next year. They need to find 3 full-time starters and he only counts as 1/2. For this reason I'm not sure why the Cubs were this interested.
    27. zonk posted on November 13, 2012 at 06:50 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    No price is too high for the sheer ecstasy of seeing someone besides Casey Coleman throw a pitch...

    It's amazing how quickly and thoroughly Coleman worked his way onto my most hated Cubs team -- he might even be co-captain with Neifi...
    28. Tricky Dick posted on November 13, 2012 at 07:07 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I like the idea of signing Scott Baker. He is a pretty good pitcher--when healthy (which is the problem). But this strikes me as a little high for a guy coming back from tendon repair and TJ surgery. Like someone else said, it would be better if the Cubs had gotten a team option for 2014; otherwise it's a fairly high base salary for maybe one half season of effective pitching (assuming it takes that long for him to get into something close to his normal form). The Cubs, like the Astros and other teams with poor chances of winning next year, will have to pay a premium to outbid other teams for free agents.
    29. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 07:11 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    Well what's the alternative use of that $5.5m? The Cubs are obligated to show up and play 162 games and they're required to have somebody pitch those games. I'd rather see Baker start 15-20 games than Chris Volstad or Casey Coleman. I'm not aware of any worthwhile minor leaguers that he'll be blocking. And I don't know Tom Ricketts personally, so I really don't care if he has $5.5 million less to buy a vacation home or whatever he'd be inclined to do with it. What free agent is now suddenly out of the Cubs' reach because of the extra $5.5m hit to their 2013 budget?

    Casey is under team control for 2014 as well whereas Baker is not. Baker does well he is gone or will have to be signed as a FA after the season.

    I was under the impression that his lack of innings will come at the front end of the season, because he's still rehabbing, rather than at the back end because of a Strasburg-style shutdown. I thought that the trade concern from the Cubs' perspective is that he won't be fully healthy early enough to build up significant trade value by the end of July.


    It'll be a bit of both. But even if he comes back and could pitch 50 or 60 or 70 innings for another team after getting traded what is that going to amount too? The Cubs will get back a warm body.

    This is what it is. Roster filler with the only difference being that instead of signing 5 scrap heap guys Theo signed one injured pitcher for 5.5 million.
    30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on November 13, 2012 at 07:55 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Last year the Cubs got the equally good and totally health Maholm for 1/$5 with a $6 option. B-R lists Harang as his top comp and, healthy, he got 2/$12 last offseason.


    Maholm was an enormous bargain (as I said at the time), and Harang (who grew up in SD and played college ball at SD State) reportedly gave the Padres a hometown discount.
    31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on November 13, 2012 at 07:58 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    But even if he comes back and could pitch 50 or 60 or 70 innings for another team after getting traded what is that going to amount too? The Cubs will get back a warm body.


    You could have said the same thing about Maholm last year. Actually, as I recall, you DID say pretty much the same thing about Maholm last year, and that turned out great for the Cubs.

    Even if they don't end up trading him, there's something to be said for putting an entertaining and at least marginally competitive product on the field. Watching a team with 100+ loss talent all season can be a real ####### ordeal - take it from me, I know that of which I speak.
    32. Petunia inquires about ponies posted on November 13, 2012 at 09:05 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It seemed crazy high to me, but then I realized I thought he had retired. And then I realized I thought he was Brad Radke.
    33. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 09:21 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    You could have said the same thing about Maholm last year. Actually, as I recall, you DID say pretty much the same thing about Maholm last year, and that turned out great for the Cubs.

    It did?

    Even if they don't end up trading him, there's something to be said for putting an entertaining and at least marginally competitive product on the field. Watching a team with 100+ loss talent all season can be a real ####### ordeal - take it from me, I know that of which I speak.

    The Cubs did the exact same thing last year and loss a ton of games. There was very little to be entertained about.
    34. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 13, 2012 at 09:26 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So Paul Maholm, the great bargain, signed a 1 year plus option contract for just under 5 million dollars and he puts up a 105 ERA+ in 120 innings. That netted the Cubs a minor league reliever and a injured pitcher who hasn't pitched since 2011. If that is the baseline then what can the Cubs possibly hope to get by trading Baker in July? A retired reliever and a one armed pitcher?
    35. VoodooR posted on November 14, 2012 at 12:35 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So Paul Maholm, the great bargain, signed a 1 year plus option contract for just under 5 million dollars and he puts up a 105 ERA+ in 120 innings. That netted the Cubs a minor league reliever and a injured pitcher who hasn't pitched since 2011


    Good lord, this is obtuse. No one is suggesting that Arodys Vizcaino is a sure thing; he's coming off Tommy John surgery and will have to reestablish his previous abilities following recovery and then continue to progress before you can pencil him in as a 4th starter type. But as far as lottery tickets go, he's a pretty promising one, worth every penny the team paid Malhom this year. Now the Malholm signing worked out very well for the Cubs (because he pitched so well for them in 2/3 of a season) and there is no guarantee that Baker will do the same, but it seems like the worst you can say about this deal is that the Cubs paid a million or two too much (I'm not saying that, but it sounds like others are). And quibbling over a million or two in the Cubs payroll is just picking nits.
    36. Walt Davis posted on November 14, 2012 at 02:10 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    For what? Even if somehow he is having a decent season what team is going to pay retail for a pitcher that isn't going to pitch much during the back half of the season? Any team that trades for him will be getting around 30 or so innings out of him.

    Not very much but they've got nothing else to do with this $5.5 M and a little more minor league depth ain't gonna hurt anybody. I'd rather they had signed a real pitcher to a longer-term deal (Sanchez or at least Jackson) which of course they still might.

    As they currently stand, the 2013 Cubs are substantially less talented than the 2012 Cubs which is scary. The primary reason for that is they had a pretty good rotation and traded half of it away while Garza got hurt. They need to rebuild a solid rotation just to get back to a 95-100 loss team.

    C'mon McCoy, you led the Volstad-burning brigade ... and we don't even have him anymore do we? Scott Baker is an upgrade to the 2013 Cubs rotation, that's not really something you can argue against. Nothing more needs be said to justify a move for this little money.

    It's amazing how quickly and thoroughly Coleman worked his way onto my most hated Cubs team -- he might even be co-captain with Neifi...

    Really? Volstad's way ahead of Coleman in my regard. I don't hate Coleman, it's not his fault he's not a ML-quality pitcher and even the Cubs didn't think he was. Hating Casey Coleman is like hating the Libertarian presidential candidate -- a perfectly reasonable thing to do in the abstract but a real waste of time.

    37. zonk posted on November 14, 2012 at 10:49 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    So Paul Maholm, the great bargain, signed a 1 year plus option contract for just under 5 million dollars and he puts up a 105 ERA+ in 120 innings. That netted the Cubs a minor league reliever and a injured pitcher who hasn't pitched since 2011. If that is the baseline then what can the Cubs possibly hope to get by trading Baker in July? A retired reliever and a one armed pitcher?


    That undersells Arodys Vizcaino by quite a bit... he was a legit top 50 prospect before TJ. Even if he hadn't gotten hurt and scuffled instead this year, I don't think you get Arodys Vizcaino for anything approaching Paul Maholm.... Sure, there's obviously a tremendous amount of risk in getting a pitcher that missed a whole season, even without resorting to TINSTAAPP - but it might well end up being a steal.

    Going into 2011, Vizcaino was at least moderately in the same league as Julio Teheran so far as young RHPs go... Teheran had a better 2011 and put some distance between them, and then Vizcaino got hurt...

    But - prior to the injury, I think Sickels had Arodys as a top 30/top 40 prospect and without checking, I'm fairly certain both BPro and BA had him top 50.

    EDIT: Just to add... even coming off injury, is there any question that Arodys Vizcaino is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system at this time? Concepcion struggled, so did McNutt... I can't think of anyone else even in hailing distance.
    38. zonk posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:00 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    It's amazing how quickly and thoroughly Coleman worked his way onto my most hated Cubs team -- he might even be co-captain with Neifi...

    Really? Volstad's way ahead of Coleman in my regard. I don't hate Coleman, it's not his fault he's not a ML-quality pitcher and even the Cubs didn't think he was. Hating Casey Coleman is like hating the Libertarian presidential candidate -- a perfectly reasonable thing to do in the abstract but a real waste of time.


    A big part of it is that I've had the extreme poor luck and displeasure of seeing Coleman pitch in person an inordinate number of times, but yes - Casey Coleman just might be the ace of my most hated Cubs team. Chris Volstad worked his way into content for the rotation by season's end, but I just can't shake the similarity I see between Volstad and Rick Reuschel (whom I like a lot)... they're both tall, pudgy, and have similar repertoires (though, of course, Volstad's is a shittier version of the heavy - but not lively or particularly fast - fastball).

    39. zonk posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:25 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    Just for fun...

    My most hated Cubs of all-time...

    C Michael Barrett
    1B Erik Karros
    2B Neifi Perez
    SS Jeff Blauser
    3B Todd Zeile
    LF Jacque Jones
    CF Juan Pierre
    RF Milton Bradley

    OF Todd Hollandsworth
    OF Luis Gonzalez
    C Todd Hundley
    IF Chris Stynes
    IF Lenny Harris
    UT Tony Womack

    SP Casey Coleman
    SP Julian Tavarez
    SP Ismael Valdez
    SP Danny Jackson
    SP Jose Guzman

    SP/RP Ed Lynch
    RP Felix Heredia
    RP Kyle Farnsworth
    RP LaTroy Hawkins
    RP Rick Aguilera
    CL Goose Gossage


    Dusty, of course, can manage the thing... I suppose I need another lefty in the pen - but the bullpen is especially hard to put together... so many deserving names I had to leave out.
    40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:27 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    That undersells Arodys Vizcaino by quite a bit... he was a legit top 50 prospect before TJ.


    And the recovery rate from TJ these days is what? 95%?

    But hey - better that the Cubs had sat on their hands and kept the money for Maholm's salary in their pockets.
    41. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:30 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    prior to the injury, I think Sickels had Arodys as a top 30/top 40 prospect


    Sickels had him at #32.

    I'm fairly certain both BPro and BA had him top 50.


    He was BA's #40 heading into 2012. Not sure about BPro.
    42. Brian C posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:39 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    BPro has Vizcaino as the Cubs' #4 prospect right now, as is.

    In fact, 6 of the top 10 were acquired after Epstein took over. That seems like a really high number for a regime that's only been on the job one year and who have supposedly been spinning their wheels this whole time.
    43. Brian C posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:45 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    My most hated Cubs of all-time...

    I hardly hate any of those guys. Leaving Ryan Theriot off the list seems like a major upset to me.
    44. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:51 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    C'mon McCoy, you led the Volstad-burning brigade ... and we don't even have him anymore do we? Scott Baker is an upgrade to the 2013 Cubs rotation, that's not really something you can argue against. Nothing more needs be said to justify a move for this little money.

    I'm not against the trade. I think it is a meaningless trade. I'm against the notion that this is somehow a good deal for the Cubs. As I said they are going to be terrible this year and Baker isn't going to change that nor is he going to provide the Cubs with anything for the future as well. This is deck chair shuffling.
    45. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:55 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    In fact, 6 of the top 10 were acquired after Epstein took over. That seems like a really high number for a regime that's only been on the job one year and who have supposedly been spinning their wheels this whole time.

    Who is accusing the Cubs of spinning their wheels?
    46. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines posted on November 14, 2012 at 11:58 AM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    You're continually accusing the Cubs of wasting time and money signing free agents when they could be doing something else -- presumably that means you think they are unacceptably inactive in the field of team rebuilding and so forth.
    47. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on November 14, 2012 at 12:09 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    You're continually accusing the Cubs of wasting time and money signing free agents when they could be doing something else -- presumably that means you think they are unacceptably inactive in the field of team rebuilding and so forth.

    I have yet to say that the Cubs wasted their time by signing Soler. I have yet to say the Cubs have wasted their time by trading for Rizzo. What I have said is that this whole notion of signing mediocre major league FA in the belief that they can be traded for value is largely overrated. I've also said this whole notion of getting "bargain" FA is stupid and silly. Who cares if Maholm is a deal at 5 million or Baker at 5.5? The Cubs are a large market team and they happen to suck as well. Signing some league average starter to a year or two year deal at a "bargain" is meaningless for the Cubs at this point.


    I didn't think that the Cubs needed to go this route to rebuild so yes I was against the Cubs rebuilding in this manner. Unfortunately that ship has sailed.
    48. Gern Blanston posted on November 14, 2012 at 12:10 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    45. Who is accusing the Cubs of spinning their wheels?

    You, way back in post 44, unless I'm misreading something.
    49. Nasty Nate posted on November 14, 2012 at 12:13 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0


    I hardly hate any of those guys. Leaving Ryan Theriot off the list seems like a major upset to me.


    That's two-time world series champion Ryan Theriot to you, good sir.
    50. zonk posted on November 14, 2012 at 12:43 PM #  hit 0 | hit 0

    I hardly hate any of those guys. Leaving Ryan Theriot off the list seems like a major upset to me.



    That's two-time world series champion Ryan Theriot to you, good sir.


    I struggled with including The Riot... but I have to admit, despite his offensive over-ratedness and cluelessness on the basepaths, I liked him... I had no desire to keep him once he hit arbitration, but I liked him.

    I suppose - beyond F Troop - an awful lot of that hatred is being unfairly heaped on guys who just imploded once they became Cubs... Blauser was a Cubs killer who was exposed as only being able to hit Cubs pitching once he no longer got to face Cub pitching. Jose Guzman gets grief for not being Greg Maddux... Todd Zeile was just awful... Jacque Jones, I just hated the signing... Karros, I still blame for ruining Hee Sop Choi (yeah, yeah...)... Barrett, Tavarez, and Bradley were just ##########...

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