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Y'all are right. The players should give up all this surplus value on the front end and get nothing back at the tail.
I'm still waiting for one of these mega deals for guys 30 and over to work out well enough to prove to me that I don't understand value as well as the GM's signing these deals on behalf of their teams.
My immediate reaction is that this is undoubtedly the stupidest deal a GM in any sport has ever signed.
I completely see this argument. The counter is that fans are ####### fickle ######## and will turn on Miggy if he becomes a perceived albatross. It's an old, old story.
I...I...cannot dispute this. But hey, maybe Cabrera will have a Big Papi tiwlight. I mean, he can't get LESS mobile than he was last year.
Trout... what? 10/400?
This is definitely going to be one of those days where we won't be hearing too much from the classic dopes who like to whine that the greedy owners are still screwing the players over.
Perhaps it's best to think of such contracts as essentially $60M a year for four years, with a bunch of money deferred.
That's exactly what they are.
Naw, it looks like we'll be hearing from all types of dopes today.
Ok, I was willing to give Dombrowski the benefit of the doubt on the Robbie Ray thing as a one-time isolated event. But this. This is clear evidence he has indeed lost his mind.
I have often wondered what this generation of ballplayers will do with all their crazy money once they retire
Ooooh man, you mean poor widdle Stephen Strasburg has to survive on just a signing bonus and four million dollars a year while he's paying his dues before he's eligible to get his big megadeal?
Probably the same as the previous generation of ballplayers...lose it all?
In your mind, exactly how much money should the typical first year player taken in the middle rounds of the draft be making?
Were there any rational thought processes running in your mind
In your mind, exactly how much money should the typical first year player taken in the middle rounds of the draft be making? Just how high do the minimum and average MLB contracts need to be before guys like you stop whining? This ought to be good.
Maybe Pujols and/or Cabrera could put together a group to buy the Oakland A's and run the team like the SF Bay area can support two frontline franchises. (why don't teams give ownership stakes in lieu of salary? Is it prohibited, or is ownership prospering so much that these guys are really not overpaid?)
Giancarlo Esposito could play Rubén Amaro Jr.
A-Rod's going to spend it all on legal fees.
It is prohibited, but I think the second part of your statement is also true. Teams have enough money to pay their players in cash, and the ones that don't probably can't afford to give up the equity either.
So...serious question. What do you ask for if you are repping Mike Trout?
You mean for an extension now, or when he hits free agency if he maintains something close to his current level the next three years?
If #75 is true, then IMO the Angels should say, "Great!" and hold a press conference announcing the deal immediately.
6/120. Very quick back of the envelope that gets me there like this;
2015 - 2 million
2016 - 10
2017 - 18
2018-2020 - 30
That alone is #### you money and sets me and my family for life. That leaves me as a free agent heading into my age 29 season where I sign my 10/350 deal. It's enough to protect me from career ending injury or something like that and not so outrageous that the Angels would balk. At the same time I've still got one mid-prime kiss at the free agent pig.
Giving up the first three FA years of Mike Trout's career for $90M is a ludicrous underbid.
This is pretty much how it works in most industries (and why it is futile to hold up the guys at the top as any sort of broad indicator of "fairness" in the industry). You have a few awesome/lucky/special guys at the top making insane money, more than they could really hope to spend (though they do), and then the masses at the bottom who have a tough time getting by (in baseball the minor leaguers, cup of coffee guys, etc.).
Signing away one free agent year might be the smartest move for Trout - if you're just signing away arb years they don't really have any incentive to give you much more than your expected arb numbers because hell, why not. Whereas if you give them the carrot of a free agency year you might be able to get a little more out of them out of the gate.
Trout turns 23 this summer, so his thought process might be that taking a little less for fewer years now sets him up for a mega-megadeal right in the absolute prime of his career.
This is the reason Silicon Valley is ageist when hiring developers. You get RCGs for pennies on the dollars for what you'd pay a 40 year old engineer with real work experience.
Wait, are you saying he could afford to keep Doug Fister after all?
The mega-megadeal comes when a superstar enters the FA market in his mid 20s. Trout's age 26 & 27 seasons (his first two FA seasons) are the most valuable in his career. If you want a salary-scale busting mega contract (A-Rod's 1st deal), you have to hit FA as soon as possible.
That's his best case scenario, and it's only $140M for next 6 years, though it also gets that free agent deal started the soonest.
That's a hell of a lot of money, and yeah -- not one of these deals (at least for the 30+ set) looks like they're a good idea... but man, Miggy can rake. He's chunky, he drinks, etc... but he can sure rake.
Player Age 28-30 OPS+/bWARMiggy 177/22.1Pujols 184/26.4A-Rod 146/21.4
I'm not convinced $40M AAV is the best Trout can do. A lot depends on what he does over the next 4 years, but if he maintains his current level of production til he's FA eligible, he'll get more than $40M AAV.
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