Lee Panas projects Victor Martinez’ 2012 production, and that of some possible replacements.
Would Martinez have had a WAR of 5.0 again in 2012? Probably not. He’d likely hit about as well overall (lower batting average, more homers). However, he might lose a fraction of a win by not catching. More importantly, we would not expect him to come anywhere close to his 2011 performance in situational hitting. Even if he we think he would have hit a little better in clutch situations than other at bats in 2012, we would estimate that he would have had a WAR of about 3.0.
So, we have two questions: (1) How much will the Tigers lose going from Martinez in 2011 (5.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012? (2) How much would they have lost going from Martinez’s expected performance in 2012 (3.0 WAR) to Player X in 2012?
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