So, start contract dumping in June?

I really like this trade for the Twins. Not so much for the Phillies.

I mean, unless Revere is a stunningly good defender in CF (doesn't appear to be the case at first glance) and they're doing this to help cover Ruf in LF, this is a terrible trade.

More likely, it's just more evidence that they aren't going to spend real money to fix their current problems and that the Howard contract is going to continue to kill them. Well, that, and the fact that Amaro just isn't much of a GM.

3. Bill Liming Posted: December 06, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4318776)
I mean, unless Revere is a stunningly good defender in CF (doesn't appear to be the case at first glance) and they're doing this to help cover Ruf in LF, this is a terrible trade.

Revere has really good range, but his throwing arm is on the level of Johnny Damon, which limits his overall defense n center. He has literally no power, so if he isn't hitting .300 he's not producing. This trade doesn't really look inspiring for the Phillies.

I'd like to know the full details on this, because though Revere is a decent enough player, Worley and May seem like an awful lot for a guy with as little upside as Revere has (and as much as Worley and May have). I think the best the Phillies can say is that Worley and Revere are a wash (and I think that's a stretch), so having to give up someone like May as well seems overkill.

Revere has really good range, but his throwing arm is on the level of Johnny Damon, which limits his overall defense n center. He has literally no power, so if he isn't hitting .300 he's not producing.

Phillies fans just watched a full season of Juan Pierre, so this should be familiar.

Required link for Ben Revere

What's the upside for Revere? If everything breaks right, he has a couple seasons like standard Juan Pierre, or peak Otis Nixon? That's a useful player, but not the sort of thing you trade a solid starter and a good prospect for.

#7: I hate you for that.

Upside? Revere might learn to hit more doubles into the corners. His weak arm might not be as exposed in CF as it was in RF last year. His terrific CF defense could continue to improve in a full-time role. He could steal more bases. It's not hopeless or anything, but he's not a big guy and he's still learning the game. But you're right, Ryan got a great deal. Amaro must have felt like he needed to do something.

Trading from strength to get ... a player who is not very good. The consequences of trading every prospect in the farm system except Domonic Brown and then having him turn into a bust continue to snowball.

Need to find the video of the tumbling triple...

Revere is really fast and has improved his route-taking and his throwing. Not going to be an elite defender but will be above average. Good baserunner and basestealer but his offense is based on batting average. No power aside from leg doubles and few walks.

If everything breaks right for Revere you get one of Juan Pierre's best seasons. If he tears an ACL you have Jason Tyner.

Revere's Triple

The Phillies have had the whole range of speedy center fielders recently, from Chris Roberson through Greg Golson to Michael Bourn. Revere seems like a nice guy. If he can throw.

I guess the twins decided to clean house regarding center fielders. I am not a Ben R guy, so it works for me.

His throwing improved dramatically as the year went on. He's getting his legs into the throw now and is pretty accurate hitting the cutoff. Still will be below average for a CF so it may pull the SS/2B farther out into the outfield.

Francoeur really looks inept in that video.

Can someone post all the highlights from all the series last year between the Twins and the Royals?

Oh wait, someone just did. Nevermind.

As far as Twins trading centerfielders to the NL East, it looks like the Nationals gave up a lot less than the Phils did, for a better player.

Very excited about Twins new top 10 prospects. Something like: Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, May, Gibson, Rosario, Berrios, Meyer, Kepler.

The Nationals also gave up a lot less in terms of 2013. If the Phillies were making the move to stay even with Washington they're doing it wrong.

Is there a chance Revere is the new leadoff hitter? He had a better OBP and more steals than JRoll last year.

The Nationals also gave up a lot less in terms of 2013. If the Phillies were making the move to stay even with Washington they're doing it wrong.

Worley's the fourth or fifth starter if they have any chance of winning the division. No huge loss for this team in particular.

Thanks for the triple video. At the very least Revere looks to be a fun player to watch. His D in center would seem to be a plus and he's quite young. He also fits into a Phillies tradition of light hitting CF who get on base, Ashburn being the best but also Roy Thomas and Dode Paskert (these 2 go back quite a ways.) Don Locke sort of fits.

I'm not as high on Worley as most seem to be and know nothing of the prospect. I like it for the Phils.

Now, now, Voros, lets not be petty.

Is there a chance Revere is the new leadoff hitter? He had a better OBP and more steals than JRoll last year

.

Is there a doubt?

I think people are a little down on Revere here. He had a 2.4 bWAR last year and a health amount of that came from offense. Seems to me like without too much changing he could turn into Michael Bourn.

Well, they had the original Ben Revere last year, Juan Pierre, who spent 80% of his career as a leadoff hitter, and they only put him at leadoff 20 times.

So who's playing CF for the Twins now?
And man, Francoeur looked bad on that play.

When Terry Ryan said he was going after pitching I guess he was not kidding. I guess the future Twins OF backlog is much lower now. Thinking about the now Twins OF though ... let's talk about the future Twins OF.

April-June 2013: Mastroianni/Benson trying to cover for Willingham in LF and Parmalee in RF. But once the super 2 thing passes and Hicks proves he can play in AAA he'll get the call.

I think people are a little down on Revere here. He had a 2.4 bWAR last year and a health amount of that came from offense. Seems to me like without too much changing he could turn into Michael Bourn.

Bourn has at least a little pop (.093 ISO) Revere has none (.044 ISO). And Bourn has pretty much always had a ~9% BB-rate. Revere is closer to 5%.

So who's playing CF for the Twins now?

I am guessing Mastoianni gets first crack. If he can't hack it, they may try Joe Benson. If things get really messy, they might give Hicks a shot. A lot of my friends think this means Hicks is freed, but I think the opposite- if they are playing the long game and acquiring future assets, there is no reason to rush Hicks to the majors, start is service clock, and risk stunting his fragile development.

Edit: Coke to Chris.

by one very simple measure ((TB + BB + SB - CS)/(PA)), ben revere rates as a .425. as a comparison, this past year domonic brown was a .448, john mayberry was a .436, juan pierre was a .453, and someone who was actually good (mike trout) was a .667.

also, in comparison to other NL east CFs, michael bourn was at .487, shane victorino was a .471, bj upton was a .521, and denard span was a .461.

and in comparison with other top of the lineup hitters, jimmy rollins was at .510, chase utley was at .500, coco crisp was at .531, and colby rasmus was at .438.


so basically, out of every option available, ben revere appears to have been the least desirable. wonderful.


as for what the phillies gave up, vance worley wasn't that good in the 2nd half of the season and was shut down in august with elbow problems. and trevor may has almost no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. so, while this looks like an overpay on paper, it is a definite possibility that the twins get no production out of this deal either.


it's still a shitty trade, though.

Future Twins CF prospects: Buxton, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, Max Kepler, Daniel Ortiz, Nate Roberts and Eddie Rosario if he can't stick at 2B. Then there's busted prospect Morales and the two guys they draft in the next couple seasons. They can't come out of a draft without a CF lately.

Oswaldo Arcia looks like a RF.

I think people are a little down on Revere here.

It's not that, it's that Worley had 3.2 WAR in 2011 and his 2012 numbers were only a hair worse except for the ridiculous .351 BABIP. Revere's a decent player, but then so is Worley, and the other guy was in BA's Top 100 going into last year. It's not so much "why Revere" as it is "why so much to get him?"

I'd certainly go with Mastro in CF if I only had to give up Revere to get Worley. Mastro sucks, but he's basically the same player as Revere.

Edit: that may be a bit harsh, but the upside for both is likely a 100 OPS+ with good D. Its taking some time to get used to the lower offensive numbers in MLB.

I'd try to pick up Drew Stubbs for a song. The pitchers already need all the help they can get, might as well have a real CF.

The sheriff's after him for what he did to his daughter.

Maybe that's it, he's been hitting with a wiffle-ball bat.

Mastro sucks, but he's basically the same player as Revere.

Mastroianni's not lefthanded but otherwise, yeah.

They got two pitchers for Revere so I guess that means "by sea".

So the best hope for the Phils winning this trade is that Worley and May implode? Be still my heart.

The Phils have some money -- how about Greinke for the reenactment of the "4 aces, except one of them might broken"?

#41 for the win

The Phillies commentariat (or at least what I've read - Crashburn, Good Phight and Phillies Nation) seem Ok with the deal, FWIW.

If everything breaks right, he has a couple seasons like standard Juan Pierre, or peak Otis Nixon?

Accurate assessment.

Terry Ryan has announced that Hicks will compete with Mastroianni and Benson for the starting CF job. I'm guessing that Cris E and andrewberg have it pretty much pegged as far as the pecking order goes. Mastroianni is 2 1/2 years older than Revere with the same basic skill set. Benson's 2012 was a wasted season between injury and general suckitude but he has shown good power and patience in the past and if he shows any sign of recovery he probably should get the shot. Hicks, I think, really needs AAA time.

-- MWE

So the best hope for the Phils winning this trade is that Worley and May implode? Be still my heart.

To be fair, Worley may have already imploded, as he was shut down in August after pitching badly for two months, as noted above by STEAGLES.

Thus yesterday's Daily News explained that it would be good to trade him, May and another prospect for Justin Upton.

Maybe the Twins go after Bourn now.

Crispix, yeah, that's true enough. But if he is really hurt, presumably the Twins have checked him out. Amaro might be seeing Worley as the reincarnation of JA Happ and thought he'd better trade him while the tradin' was good.

What are the odds that Manuel bats Revere second behind Rollins? That's where he mostly batted Pierre last year.

Ben Revere has 275 hits in his career.

33 of them have gone for extra bases (12%). 0 of them have gone over the fence.

Re-posting from the Lounge:

It’s pretty clear that there’s a baseline level of power you need to have to play regularly in Major League Baseball (let’s call it the Otis Nixon Line, and say that you need 13% of your hits to go for extra bases), and that—right now—Ben Revere is below it.

Of course, he’s very young, and could develop some more power later on.

So, I wondered, have there been other players who have started their career hitting for as little power as Revere (<13% XBH rate) who then started hitting for power later on? So I got a list of players who had seasons with XBH rates as low as Revere’s was. There are some interesting names on it:

* Kirby Puckett, 1984. His rookie year, he had 150 hits—12 doubles, 5 triples, no homers (11%). In ‘85 he bumped it up to 23%, and in ‘86 he hit 31 homers.

* Pete Rose, 1964. As a 23 year-old, Rose had 139 hits—13 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 homers (13%). The next year he made the All-Star team, and had 35 doubles, 11 triples and 11 homers.

* Elvis Andrus, 2010. The 21 year-old Andrus had 156 hits—15 were doubles, 3 were triples (11.5%). Over the last 2 years, he’s bumped it up to 21.3% and 23.9%.

* Omar Vizquel, 1992-1993: 25-26 year-old Vizquel had 34 doubles, 6 triples, and 2 homers among his 285 hits (14.7%). He would go on to establish himself as a consistent 30 double/5 triple/5 homer player over the rest of his career.

* Don Kessinger, 1966-68: His 23-25 year seasons saw him record just 50 extra base hits (out of 437 total). In 1969 he finished 2nd in the league in doubles with 38, and continued to produce at a 20% XBH rate for the rest of his career.