Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Jason Repko loses fire, walks away from baseball
(www.ydr.com)
The Repko is gone
but he’s not forgotten
This is the story
of a 71 OPS+ (rotten)
Read More...Jason Repko lost something in the offseason. He knew it. He felt it.
An outfielder for 14 seasons in professional baseball, including seven seasons spent in the majors, he lost the desire to be on the field every single day.
But he still wanted to feel that way. That’s the thing. He wanted to feel that fire again. So even when no organization offered him an invitation to spring training, he felt like he needed ...
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. ShoeGrit posted on December 21, 2012 at 08:34 AM # hit 0 | hit 0Mauer, 4552 PA, 323/405/468, 135 OPS+, 37 WAR
Torre, 5481 PA, 297/362/465, 130 OPS+, 40 WAR
Simmons, 5888 PA, 297/365/454, 126 OPS+, 38 WAR
Pudge II (22-29), 4361 PA, 315/352/516, 118 OPS+, 40 WAR (only 30 oWAR)
Those aren't great. Piazza had a 160 OPS+ and as many WAR in about 1000 fewer PA. There aren't any particularly good hitting comps anywhere -- expansion era, BA>300, OBP>400, ISO<180 only turns up Boggs. Some that aren't too far off:
Raines 303/391/442, 133
Madlock 314/375/453, 128
Greenwell 307/375/466, 127
Jeter 317/389/462, 121
They aren't getting any better. Ahh, Olerud, 301/403/484, 135. Chipper and Abreu aren't too bad but obviously more power.
The not-so-shocking conclusion -- if he can stick at C, he's got a good shot. I'm a bit surprised he doesn't stand out more from Torre and Simmons though.
Mauer will hit until he's 40, he just won't be catching at that age. I see a long set of Molitor-type DH seasons from Joe. That will look better than Ted Simmons and Torre but neither of those guys are in.
Mauer: 122
Torre: 691
Simmons: 907
I-Rod: 1261
This is why Mauer looks paler by comparison in WAR, which is driven by playing time.
With 37 WAR, an MVP, and three batting titles, Mauer has plenty of peak credentials. His career right now is already more impressive than the MLB portion of Campy's. With another season or two his career WAR will slip past Lombardi, Bresnahan, Posada, Freehan, Munson, Tenace, all of whom have their advocates or their plaque...none of whom probably has as impressive a peak. Simmons, Cochrane, and Torre will be within easy reach, and Piazza will be next on the radar. But with that peak, Mauer may not need huge career totals to draw the attention of what will probably a more savvy electorate in around 2025-2035. In fact, Cochrane will be a great comp for Mauer. Very similar peak, very similar offensive profile, and Mauer is about 11 career WAR away. Close enough that even if he declines 0.5 WAR for each of the next four years, he'll match him by age 33... Cochrane was done at 34.
I said Joe Torre simply because it looks like Mauer is playing catcher less than half the time going forward, and I am guessing within two years not playing catcher at all. So he will need to stick around for a long time at a high level while playing 1st base or DH. Thats hurt Torre because his counting stats were not high enough to make it as a corner guy, and he didnt stay at catcher long enough. Mauer has never played a professional inning at 3rd either. Are they talkng about moving him there ? If not.....then what happens when his average slips a bit ? Without the homers, how much playing time will he get at first base in the long run ?
Also, when you look at the seasons prior to 2009 he had a 127 OPS+, and in the 3 seasons since, he's had a 132 OPS+. I think he needs another season like 2009..another MVP season, or very close to it, in order to get over the hump...especially if he is not at catcher.
Depends on whether the Twins are contending. If they have a good team in 2014 he might stick it out longer.
Going by the WAR lists through age 29 as a quick checklist, it's hard to draw an exact line. Eddie Mathews and Mike Schmidt are 11th and 12th in position-player WAR through age 29, and they'd shown most of what they needed to, but both added considerably to their cases. I was a toddler after Mathews's ninth season, but I remember Schmidt's exceedingly well: an MVP and a World Series victory, which were huge items in his case: and yet, after [ie "as of the end of"] 1980 Schmidt had a batting line of .259/283/787. I actually don't think the Hall goes for that.
Down around 12th/13th on the pitching WAR leaderboard you come to similar cases. The two there through age 29 are Robin Roberts and Bert Blyleven. Roberts in particular had already shown everything he was going to show to establish his greatness, but he would not be in the Hall if he hadn't plugged along and won another 100 games; let alone Blyleven, who'd be no candidate whatsoever, except perhaps among the more discerning HOM voters. (And these two are not late bloomers, obviously; they're among the greatest pitching careers ever through age 29.)
Edit for clarity
He is more than on pace -- a catcher with 3 batting titles and an MVP has fulfilled the "peak" requirement for a HOFer. He is not a full lock, though -- this is good but not a Koufax-esque or Big Hurt-like domination of the league. He still needs to hang around long enough that he builds some bulk, without driving his .323 BA down too far.
He certainly does need the bulk. Ernie Lombardi, who had a similar offensive skillset (and a not as great defensive rep), had two batting titles, and an MVP, and still had to wait almost 50 years for induction to the HOF.
AROD is 23rd on the career WAR-through-nine-seasons list. He's below some guys who probably wouldn't have been locks at all at that point (Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr) , but it's somewhat misleading, because AROD played very sparingly in his first two major-league seasons. If you take AROD's first nine full seasons, he's already with the Yankees, having won three HR titles and an MVP in Texas; he's a much stronger case.
At first I read your comment as "IROD," which was intriguing. Pudge's 9th seasons was his MVP year, and when he started his tenth he was as good as he'd ever be. But of course he continued to add a lot of value, and play in a couple of World Series, after that.
Position players: Cobb, Hornsby, DiMaggio, Musial, Williams, Jackie Robinson, Mays, Mantle, Bonds, Pujols. There are a couple of other cases like AROD's: Tris Speaker and Lou Gehrig played very little in their first two seasons.
Pitchers: Mathewson, Walsh, Johnson, Alexander, Grove, Feller, Seaver, Clemens. I doubt Pedro Martinez, even though he'd won all three of his Cy Young Awards by then; he only had 125 victories (he only had 132 after nine full seasons; his first was a cup of coffee).
There are two interesting Walsh-like cases among position players: Arky Vaughn and Johnny Mize. Neither one did a whole lot after their first nine seasons, so their cases are largely based on those nine years anyway.
And then there's Wade Boggs, seventh on the "through-9" WAR list. He had won all his batting titles by then, in fact had all his career "black ink" by then except some IBB titles. But he had 1,784 hits. I think the BBWAA would have concluded that Boggs was great for a while, but no chicken for him.
Through 9 years, he had a 0.346 BA. I'd have to think that would have drawn a lot of attention from the writers, even with only 1,784 hits, especially since it would have included 7 straight 200 hit season.
It's extremely misleading because it puts him at 53.5 WAR versus 69.6, which would be third on the list (without doing the adjustment for everyone else). I think it would be interesting to look at the player's first nine full seasons. Seems unfair to penalize a guy for 59 poor PA's as an 18 year old.
He's one of the biggest mistakes ever, IMO. One and done for him was a disgrace!
It's not really a "penalty," though, just a product of the question: would this guy have been a lock as of his first day eligible? It's what makes Pujols so formidable: stepped right into the majors and played a full season at an MVP-candidate level. Very few great players have done that.
Yes, you're right.
One of many formidable things about El Hombre!
It's a shame I didn't include PA in my comparison. And I guess I shouldn't have said they were perfect comps. :-)
I don't have many thoughts on Mauer, but the headline got me thinking about how great a player has to be in his first nine years in the majors to be a "lock" for the Hall of Fame as soon as he becomes eligible by playing a single game in his tenth.
I think this is nearly impossible. You named a few but also some I have doubts about. Some of it depends on what you mean by "lock."
Hank Greenberg played on 13 seasons and one of those was literally 1 PA. He had 6100 PA. In those PA, he had a 158 OPS+, 4 HR titles, 4 RBI titles and 2 MVPs. He took 3 seasons off to go to war. It took him 8 votes to get to the HoF.
Kiner had 6250 PA, 7 consecutive HR titles, but only 1 RBI title and no MVP. It took him 15 years.
After his first 9 full seasons, Dick Allen had a 164 OPS+ and 1 MVP.
You brought up Eddie Mathews -- even with his awesome career it took him 5 ballots. After his first 9 years he had fewer than 350 HR and fewer than 1000 RBI. There's no way he makes the HoF in my opinion.
Johnny Mize -- first 9 seasons, 5300 PA, 170 OPS+, 1 BA title, 3 HR & RBI titles, 4 top 5 MVP finishes, not elected by the writers. His 10th season was his last great season -- this is about as close to a true "hit by bus" as we're likely to get.
Mays maybe. The counting stats not that impressive, the rate stats not any moreso than Greenberg or Allen or Mathews (positional) but 7 AS games, 1 MVP and 4 more top 5 finishes and a bunch of steals. Assuming injury, they probably fill in the rest of his career anyway and wave him on. Was Griffey a lock -- on the surface, he and Mays look very similar after their first 9 seasons.
AROD -- no, on a technicality. His first two "seasons" were wasted and he didn't win an MVP until his 10th (not his fault).
Banks -- I think yes but not first ballot. He did nothing notable after that but pass 500 HR and he had 2 MVPs. That 9th year was also his last at SS -- not everybody would have filled in his career but those that did would have filled it in better than what actually happened.
Bench -- yes but not first ballot.
There may be a lot of pitchers here .... but maybe not, career milestones matter a lot there. Still, put a few CYA under your belt, avoid your decline phase, etc.
Greenberg and Mize are really the guys. Voting patterns might have shifted but you don't find better peak/primes than that and it took both a long time. Some of that was the still-crowded early ballots but sheesh. You've obviously got to be better than Giambi/Strawberry/Cepeda. I suspect you have to be at least equal in performance and better in awards/storyline than Aaron/Bagwell to make it for 9 seasons plus 1 game.
I'm willing to grant they would make "hit by bus" positional adjustments for C and SS but I don't think they'd do so for 3B, 2B and CF -- they don't do it very well for career candidates. Mays had plenty of storyline and his MVP finishes show how highly they thought of him in real time so he probably makes it. Bonds already had 3 MVPs and a 2nd and a 4th so I can see him. But Mathews had just 2 2nd place finishes.
Anyway, to make it after 9 seasons plus 1 game, you'd have to dominate in those 9 seasons and that would have to include offensive domination (just look at the 2012 AL MVP vote). WAR's positional adjustments and baserunning/defense value are likely overstating a player's chances of induction by that point.
In the interest of science (and in accordance with "sell high"), Miguel Cabrera should retire immediately.
By the way, Boggs best 9-season comp may be Paul Waner.
Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield PA From To1 Johnny Bench 57.6 130 75 6309 1967 1977 H
2 Gary Carter 46.2 120 107 5025 1974 1983 H
3 Ivan Rodriguez 44.7 112 135 5622 1991 2001
4 Joe Torre 39.6 130 -1 5481 1960 1970
5 Ted Simmons 37.8 126 -11 5888 1968 1979
6 Joe Mauer 37.0 135 -11 4552 2004 2012
7 Mike Piazza 35.8 160 -8 3482 1992 1998
8 Thurman Munson 33.5 120 27 4181 1969 1976
9 Mickey Cochrane 31.9 126 -2 4318 1925 1932 H
10 Buck Ewing 31.7 137 57 3352 1880 1889 H
11 Yogi Berra 31.1 130 8 4330 1946 1954 H
12 Bill Freehan 29.7 114 23 4810 1961 1971
13 Craig Biggio 28.4 120 -39 4482 1988 1995
14 Bill Dickey 27.5 126 5 3802 1928 1936 H
15 Carlton Fisk 27.4 132 26 2825 1969 1977 H
16 Darrell Porter 27.2 114 7 4488 1971 1981
17 Roger Bresnahan 26.7 132 -14 3628 1897 1908 H
22 Ray Schalk 23.5 88 39 4890 1912 1922 H
25 Gabby Hartnett 20.9 127 2 3098 1922 1930 H
36 Deacon White 18.3 153 13 1889 1871 1877 H
42 Ernie Lombardi 16.9 124 -11 2612 1931 1937 H
47 Roy Campanella 15.7 135 6 1883 1948 1951 H
60 Rick Ferrell 13.7 99 2 3137 1929 1935 H
So it's dang near impossible, for sure, and cases like Aaron and Boggs show the monumental difficulty of it. Ty Cobb shows the difficulty of it, for that matter. He didn't play much his first two seasons, either. After that he won six of the next seven batting titles, was hitting .368 lifetime, had played in all the World Series he ever would. And still an uphill look at the Hall: 1,600 hits and a reputation for aggression and selfishness. Much would depend on the circs of how Cobb left the game, I guess. If he'd volunteered to go bear stretchers on the Western Front and been blown up in the process, then sure. If he'd been killed in a back alley by somebody he'd suckerpunched, not so much.
It does come down to the definition of "lock," again. I guess most people mean "he's a lock if I just project him to do what most players do from this point forward in a career." But there are enough people still waiting for Andruw Jones to scoop up those 600 home runs that that sense of the term should come with heavy caveats.
Edit: Mays is another guy with limited time in his first two ML seasons, but who'd also get war credit (I often forget that). I guess I figure Mays as a 9+one-game lock because of the impression he made on contemporaries. If Kirby Puckett after 12 years, then Mays after 9 and a few games is not hard to imagine. His heroics were similar.
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, From 1st season to 9th season, (requiring At least 4000 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+
is mike piazza not a hall of famer because he's gay and has bad skin? or didn't throw the bat back at clemens and is therefore a cowardly grrl or something?
if it is because WAR numbers are effed up for catchers can someone plz fix those numbers. thx.
no piazza in the hall of fame
no clemens, no bonds, no piazza. yes jack morris because he was a Tough Guy with a Tough Moustache.
goodness gwacious
mr warner,
whers my contwact? i wanna wake up fwom this nightmawe
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.