Last year I kept waiting for Adam to turn back into a pumpkin. In the summer he did but he ended with a bang which really helps his image.

He always ends with a bang:

1st half: 768 OPS
2nd half: 886 OPS

in 4700 total PA. For guys with a good number of PA, I'd guess that's one of the larger gaps you'd find. He had an uncharacteristically bad August in 2012.

The team raved, RAVED about ALR's defense. And he really was pretty sweet over there in a way that doesn't necessarily jive with some of the WAR components I've seen for him in previous years. Given the problems that often has with fairly evaluating 1B, it's hard to take some of the WAR numbers seriously. He's a solid bat (left-handed to help balance out the middle of the order) with a plus glove. Whatever numbers you want to assign to that, he's an asset at that price. Two years... who cares? It's a win-now team. He's a win-now player.

Exactly (and this is pretty much exactly what I wrote back in my #3). LaRoche didn't just bring his bat to the Nats in 2012 (although he was critical as a 'bridge' for the team, putting up strong numbers at the precise time when the rest of the team with the exception of Desmond was either injured or slumping), he brought the GLOVE. I doubt there's a single person who watched the team on a daily basis who would have anything other than rave reviews for his defense at 1B.

His primary defensive skill was/is his ability to pick just about anything thrown his way by the rest of the infield, and this made him a uniquely valuable guy for the Nationals because of Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman: two guys with plus gloves but a proclivity for the occasional Knoblauch-ian throw. LaRoche saved countless plays from being errors with his ability to dig pretty much anything out of the dirt and extend his body Gumby-like distances off the bag to haul in off-target throws. None of the Nats' other 1B options were remotely as good at that. In that sense LaRoche wasn't just good on his own terms, he was a keystone that turned the Nationals' infield defense (LaRoche, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman) into one of the most impenetrable in the National League.

The Rays look like an obvious trade fit. Jake McGee would be a perfect replacement for Sean Burnett in the Nats' bullpen

I wouldn't trade McGee for Morse. McGee is a really awesome reliever, and just because he's left-handed and now being used in the pen he shouldn't be put in the same category as Sean Burnett or Jerry Blevins. In fact I don't see how he's less valuable than David Robertson. He's arguably a better pitcher with 5 years of team control vs Robertson's 2. For all I know McGee can be converted back to starter. Looking at it in WAR terms, McGee had 1.8 rWAR in 2012, and Morse has 1.8 rWAR per 600 PA in his career. If the Nats managed this, it would be highway robbery.

I agree completely with the "win now deal" analysis. It looks even better to me when you consider that Rendon may be up to the bigs in 2015.

The Nationals have literally no more needs on the MLB team to fill at this point (except, as mentioned above, a lefty reliever), so the goal here is to try and do some restocking of the shelves on the farm.

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The Nats are looking like an OOTP team where even the reserves are 4 or 5-star players.

Both of these points are even more amazing when you consider what the Nats were like as recently as 2010.

I wouldn't trade McGee for Morse. McGee is a really awesome reliever, and just because he's left-handed and now being used in the pen he shouldn't be put in the same category as Sean Burnett or Jerry Blevins. In fact I don't see how he's less valuable than David Robertson. He's arguably a better pitcher with 5 years of team control vs Robertson's 2. For all I know McGee can be converted back to starter. Looking at it in WAR terms, McGee had 1.8 rWAR in 2012, and Morse has 1.8 rWAR per 600 PA in his career. If the Nats managed this, it would be highway robbery.

I tend to agree -- it wouldn't be "highway robbery" per se ("highway robbery" is Vernon Wells AND his contract for Mike Napoli), but it would be a great, great deal for the Nationals even as it authentically filled a need for the Rays as well. I could still see it happening on the logic that the balance of the trade ought to be assessed by both teams' relative needs (Tampa needs a 1B/DH with pop, Washington needs a sharp LH reliever), but it's why I think something like a deal with the Orioles for Brian Matusz + a low-level SP prospect or two is a more likely trade.

I would even be happy to see the Nats throw in a lottery-pick prospect or two in a Morse-for-McGee trade. I'm a big fan of his, and I love the five years of cost-control as well.

Both of these points are even more amazing when you consider what the Nats were like as recently as 2010.

I've been pondering this as well, and it really is such a contingent thing when you go back and analyze all the pieces that fell into place to make this possible. The ones that can be directly attributed to a smart front office are Jordan Zimmermann (the single greatest non-obvious draft pick in franchise history), Morse (a straight-up fleecing of the Mariners, acquired for Ryan Langerhans), Wilson Ramos, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard. Zimmerman, Harper and Strasburg are cornerstones, but it's hard to give much credit to a team for drafting them as they were all thought to be no-doubt stars at the time.

But so many of the other core players just managed to 'put it together' miraculously, often after years of scuffling. Ian Desmond was, as recently as 2011, little more than an aging busted prospect seen as having little chance of holding onto a career until, suddenly, he was the best shortstop in the Major Leagues. Ross Detwiler was a similarly disappointing draft pick, a middle-inning reliever at best, until he locked down a rotation slot and proved he could bring the goods under major competitive pressure. Adam LaRoche was universally thought to be a 'marking time' fill-in at 1B, and his putrid injury-ridden first season didn't disabuse anyone of that. I'm sure Mike Rizzo would claim he saw the potential in all of these guys, and no doubt that's technically true, but the way they've suddenly matured all at once has been wonderfully serendipitous.

His primary defensive skill was/is his ability to pick just about anything thrown his way by the rest of the infield

As a man of sub-modest athletic skill in general but the ability to pick just about anything thrown my way ... might I suggest that the difference here probably has less to do with LaRoche's picking ability (this is not hard, most 1B are quite good at it) and more to do with the Nats apparently crappy throwing ability giving him opportunities. Late career shifts aside, you don't get to stay at 1B if you can't pick throws.

Now, I've not seen LaRoche enough to judge him personally and not at all in the last few years. I do note the Nats 2B/3B/SS made 59 errors in 2011 (LaRoche being hurt most of the year) and only 52 in 2012 ... and I have no idea how many were throwing as b-r isn't nice enough to tell me that I can find. They made a whopping 74 in 2010, almost half of them Desmond. 7 errors saved would be a good number, probably adding up to 5 runs a year.

0.7, 2.2, -0.1

Morse posted 6.2 oWAR during that span, but coughed up more than half of that on defense (-3.4 dWAR). He needs to get to the AL as quickly as possible.

Bear in mind that dWAR now contains the positional adjustment, which is making up the majority of that -3.4 number. He rates at about half a win per year below average relative to position. While he would benefit from a shift to DH, it is likely to be marginal, e.g. David Ortiz has -3.7 dWAR over the past 3 seasons. If you adjust those numbers for playing time, Morse is accumulating 1.47 dWAR per 150 games, and Ortiz 1.45. And as we have seen, not everybody takes to the DH well, so there is some risk there also.

The team raved, RAVED about ALR's defense. And he really was pretty sweet over there in a way that doesn't necessarily jive with some of the WAR components I've seen for him in previous years. Given the problems that often has with fairly evaluating 1B, it's hard to take some of the WAR numbers seriously.

See above. He is rated 8 runs above average for his position last season.

The ones that can be directly attributed to a smart front office are Jordan Zimmermann (the single greatest non-obvious draft pick in franchise history)...

Hey, you're forgetting about Smiley Gonzalez! Can't a brutha get a little love???

Err that should be -1.47 and -1.45 in #58 obviously. I blame not enough coffee.

I'm sold. LaRoche is acceptably meh.

I always envisioned a fat David Morse.

Morse is a heckuvan actor. Lead villain in several movies that were good, not great. Had his own tv series that was good, but not quite good enough. A zillion character roles. HOVG. Absolutely convincing in anything he did, and used his height to real advantage.

We saw Morse and family at a local Indian restaurant a couple of years ago. The family lives somewhere close to us, albeit not in our neighborhood. :) The restaurant is a pretty meh place (we won't go back) but it was dark and not crowded, so they might have chosen it for those reasons. His wife is tall and quite attractive; the kids were closely bunched in age (late teens, early 20s) and were tall and attractive.

...and I have no idea how many were throwing as b-r isn't nice enough to tell me that I can find. They made a whopping 74 in 2010, almost half of them Desmond. 7 errors saved would be a good number, probably adding up to 5 runs a year.

Actually, bbref has that info under advanced fielding:

For 2b-3b-ss 2010 74 errors, 6 catch 36 field 32 throwing
2011 59 errors 4 catch 31 field 24 throwing

So maybe LaRoche did save a bunch of errors

By the way "catching" errors involve catching throws, not batted balls.

We saw Morse and family at a local Indian restaurant a couple of years ago. The family lives somewhere close to us, albeit not in our neighborhood. :) The restaurant is a pretty meh place (we won't go back) but it was dark and not crowded, so they might have chosen it for those reasons. His wife is tall and quite attractive; the kids were closely bunched in age (late teens, early 20s) and were tall and attractive.

Heh, I thought you were talking about Michael Morse and was like how the #### does he have 20 year old kids?

@64 - me too.

@63 - thanks, but you need to add 2012 to see LaRoche's impact. In 2011 the Nationals had a variety of players at 1b (mostly Morse, LaRoche and Marrero)

numbers are catch, field, throw for 2b,3b,ss

2010 6/36/32
2011 4/31/24
2012 0/25/27 (12 throws by Zimmerman, who had some shoulder issues)

I read somewhere that the option is for $15m (Or $13m more than the guaranteed buyout amount). I'm not sure the structure of the mutual option; does that mean either party can exercise it, or does that mean both parties must agree to it?

I read somewhere that the option is for $15m. I'm not sure the structure of the mutual option; does that mean either party can exercise it, or does that mean both parties must agree to it?

Would love to know where you read that number, because as far as I can tell it's remained a mystery figure. As for the structure of the option, yes, it's mutual and therefore both parties have to agree. If either party declines the option LaRoche will automatically get a $2 million buyout, which is why the contract is being referred to as a $24 million guaranteed deal even though the years are 10 and 12 -- the final 2 is also guaranteed no matter what happens.

This story says $15m:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2013/1/9/3854818/nationals-sign-adam-laroche-contract-mlb

As for the structure of the option, yes, it's mutual and therefore both parties have to agree. If either party declines the option LaRoche will automatically get a $2 million buyout

If so, why is the option even part of the contract? Is it for luxury tax or revenue sharing purposes? Because then every player has a de facto mutual option at the end of their contract; i.e. if both parties agree, they can sign a contract.

Here is a fangraphs article about mutual options, although it's not very illuminating. This type of mutual option doesn't seem like it does much at all besides potentially streamlining future negotiations in some cases.

I sold a painting to (David) Morse a number of years ago. He was shooting 'Hack' at the time and looked pretty scruffy and I didn't recognize him and just showed him around the gallery. When he came back, my boss, who had been a religious 'St. Elsewhere' watcher, was falling all over herself asking me if I knew who that was. I simply replied, "Yeah, the guy I was helping a few days ago." She then explained who he was and I then felt foolish for not recognizing him. He is very tall (and nice). I asked him about getting his ass kicked by Bjork.

oops