Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Gonzales: No plans to dismantle White Sox
(www.chicagotribune.com)
Yeah, and the White Sox had no plans to dismantle when they raved about Joe Borchard.
Read More...General manager Rick Hahn said it’s too early to consider rebuilding the White Sox, although there was an interesting development Monday night.
Second baseman Gordon Beckham started at shortstop in his third game on a minor league rehabilitation assignment for Triple-A Charlotte.
...“We haven’t altered our plan since we left spring training, which was if we’re in a position to contend, we’ll add,” Hahn ...
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1 2 3 >I don't think so. As with his 400-homer club mate Konerko, his utter absence of value outside the batter's box will make him unworthy of serious consideration for the Hall. WAR is not the be-all, but it presents a pretty bleak picture of Dunn's worth through the years (hint: by WAR he's almost been as good a player in his career as Juan Pierre).
Could happen, too.
I don't think you have to fully subscribe to the specifics of the defensive metrics to recognize how much of his value he was giving back when he didn't have a bat in his hand.
You don't, but 5.2 wins is still a lot to think a player is giving back. I find it to be an unfathomable high number, I don't remotely see how a first baseman could do that. An outfielder, maybe, but even that is a little extreme. But I do not think a first baseman who never fields a ball, and who only catches the balls that everyone catches at first, could cost his team five wins defensively.
Edit: 7 makes a good point, it's not 5.2 wins compared to an average first baseman, but compared to an average defender...That I could see....maybe. (that is annoying. I prefer to let myself do the positional adjustment)
EDIT: fixed my math.
Well, DRS saw Dunn as a -23 runs in 67 games at first while Total Zone saw him as -6 and UZR as -14.3
This is a very reasonable position, but the -43 RField total in 2009 is also anomalous compared to the rest of Dunn's results. It's possible that, for whatever reason, DRS has Dunn really bad that year and he just wasn't, I don't know. But the rest of Dunn's RField totals seem reasonable enough (contrary to #5's extrapolation), so I'm curious as to what happened to 2009 to get such odd totals for just that year.
Yeah, I agree with this. Instead of arguing about the validity of Dunn's atrocious fielding numbers, I think the simplest way to think of it is to round off his defensive contributions to zero, and compare him to other DHs. Dunn is well below both Edgar and David Ortiz as a hitter, and those two are going to have an uphill battle to make it into the Hall as it is. Dunn isn't making it in.
I think his totals are reasonable. I used "absurd" in the "ridiculous" sense. His defensive totals are absurd in the way Ted Williams' OBPs are. It's ridiculous that a major league ballplayer can be that bad in the field and continue to play the field for a decade.
(There's some evidence that Dh'ing may hurt your hitting stats, but not at a rate of 15-20 runs per season.)
EDIT: Obviously a full-time DH Adam Dunn is also no kind of Hall of Fame candidate, any more than Greg Luzinski looked had a Hall of Fame path. And Luzinski was clearly the better hitter, in context.
BTW, ESPN noted that:All that said, I simply don't think Dunn is a good enough hitter to be deserving. I tried the best way I could come up with to rank players solely on their hitting, which was searching by WAR batting runs. (I wish the B-R Play Index let you search by oWAR, but it doesn't.) WAR batting runs doesn't include baserunning and double plays, but considering Dunn is horrible at one and great at [avoiding] the other, we can pretend it evens out. Here's the search. Dunn is 232nd all-time in WAR batting runs, with 211. Even guys around 400 -- Jack Clark, Pete Browning, Jason Giambi -- don't make the HOF if they are perceived as having zero defensive value. So I don't think even this Dunn-friendly way of approaching the issue sounds too good for him.
(Edgar Martinez, on the other hand, is 33rd all-time with 532 WAR batting runs. So at least according to this stat, if your logic is that a guy with no defensive value better be one of the very greatest hitters ever, Edgar still qualifies. Two spots above Edgar on the list is Mark McGwire, the rich man's Adam Dunn.)
EDIT: I see several others beat me to the DH point. Ehh, I'll just leave it. It's not like I had anything meaningful to say about it anyway.
4.8, 4.4, 4.0, 3.7, 3.4, 2.6, 2.3 - Dunn (29.7 career)
5.1, 5.1, 5.0, 4.0, 3.8, 2.9, 2.4 - Luzinski (34.6 career)
Dunn could pass Luzinski on career value, ignoring defense, if he can keep playing through his 30s, but Adam Dunn was never the hitter that Greg Luzinski was from 1975-1978. If all you have is a bat, and your bat is not as good as Greg Luzinski's, you are not a candidate for the Hall of Fame. Hell, you're not a candidate for the Hall of Very Good.
All of MLB: 6412 Home Runs in 1948-2012, during 9th Inning or during Extra Innings and put team into lead
1971 Batters
Mickey Mantle 23 Frank Robinson 22 Hank Aaron 22 Tony Perez 21 Jim Thome 19 Jack Clark 19 Eddie Murray 19 Mike Schmidt 19 Andruw Jones 18 Willie Mays 18 Jason Giambi 18 Graig Nettles 17 Willie McCovey 17 Chipper Jones 17 Willie Stargell 17 Barry Bonds 17 Reggie Jackson 17 Adam Dunn 17 Lou Whitaker 16 Harold Baines 16 Gary Gaetti 16 Albert Pujols 16 Alex Rodriguez 15 Mark McGwire 15 Lance Parrish 14 Todd Helton 14 Yogi Berra 14 Dick Allen 14 Mike Piazza 14 Stan Musial 14 David Ortiz 14 Vladimir Guerrero 14 Jeff Kent 14 Ken Griffey 14 Robin Ventura 14 Sammy Sosa 13 Juan Gonzalez 13 Don Baylor 13 Andre Dawson 13 Roy Sievers 132050 Pitchers
Trevor Hoffman 29 Roy Face 24 Lee Smith 23 Hoyt Wilhelm 23 Troy Percival 22 Jesse Orosco 22 Eddie Guardado 22 Jeff Reardon 21 Lindy McDaniel 21 Roberto Hernandez 21 Rich Gossage 20 Dennis Eckersley 20 Willie Hernandez 20 Billy Wagner 20 Rollie Fingers 20 Jose Mesa 19 Ron Davis 19 Randy Myers 19 Don McMahon 18 Rick Aguilera 17 Rod Beck 17 Bruce Sutter 17 Gene Garber 17 Tom Henke 16 Matt Capps 15 Johnny Klippstein 15 Todd Jones 15 Tug McGraw 14 Michael Jackson 14 Kent Tekulve 14 Mariano Rivera 14 Sparky Lyle 14 Jim Brewer 14 Justin Speier 14 Jeff Montgomery 14 Dan Plesac 14 Claude Raymond 14 John Franco 14 Warren Spahn 13 Dick Drago 13But you are a candidate to get toasted with Old Style in Bridgeport.
The leaders are mostly guys who were around 400 HR or way more than that. Whitaker had 244. He only hit home runs when Jack Morris needed them.
dunn is a ridiculously large guy
dunn strikes out more than anyone
dunn had an abysmal season at age 31
dunn has rebounded to some extent at age 32
seen this play before. this scene happens about 15 minutes before the main character begins his descent into nothingness
gorman thomas in 1983 couldn't buy a hit. got traded to cleveland. rebounded a bit. missed most of next season. had a comeback season at age 33. then he receded then he got hurt and then he was done
thomas was a big guy for a centerfielder in his day, not dale murphy big, but at 6'2" 225 he was plenty big. not much of a centerfielder but he banged his body around with the best of them. hit his homers and took his walks and whiffed thought not as whiffy as dunn
dunn is a good quote and a good guy and he seems a pretty sharp fella but he's walking a tightrope in his career between effectiveness and oblivion and oblivion is gaining fast
i think folks need to steel themselves for the end. 2012 may not be the end of the world but it is likely the beginning of the end of this career
My family and I have taken all necessary precautions.
Yep. I'd vote for Dunn before either of those guys, because he actually played a position, even if he was terrible at it.
McGwire is about a season of stats ahead of him and has 841 extra base hits, vs 1626 hits total(785 singles)
This was the name that jumped out for me, but looking at the splits, he wasn't hitting homeruns at a noticeably better rate in the 9th and extra innings, roughly a little over 3.27%(1 per 30 at bats) of the time vs 2.85% (1 per 35 at bats) of the time.
If comparing Dunn to other "DH" type of players, that is the way I would do it, no reason to include a positional adjustment(oWar) , but a flat comparison of their offense, with of course a park adjustment and era adjustment, but not a positional adjustment. (for comparison sake between guys like Thomas, Luzinski, Edgar etc) now if you are comparing to legit position players that is different and you have to factor in defense.
I don't support Edgar for the hof, and there is no way that Dunn is as deserving as Edgar.
The difference being that Dunn has a chance at a very long career.* A miraculously healthy Dunn pushes 12000 PAs and 700 HR. He is 4 years younger than Ortiz but only 600 PA behind; 9 years younger than Edgar's last season and only 1500 PA behind. He's not nearly as good but some Thome-esque raw numbers are quite possible for Dunn.
For now, the voters would basically view him as Dave Kingman in a more HR-friendly environment. Of course he walks a lot more than Kingman ever did but only some voters would take that into account.
Dunn: 7073 PA, 241/372/502, 400 HR, 1005 RBI, 1981 K, 126 OPS+
Kingman: 7429 PA, 236/302/478, 442 HR, 1210 RBI, 1816 K, 115 OPS+
Kingman had only one good year after 32 but did manage 150 HR. Give Dunn Kingman's late career and he's at about 10500 PA, 550 HR, 1450 RBI and 2500 K. While I think 500 is no longer a magic milestone for the voters, I suspect somewhere around 550 is going to be hard for them to resist ... but I think they still would in Dunn's case.
*I tend towards HW's prognosis so I don't expect him to have one.
So it's crazypants to support a player who was durable enough to play every day over a player who wasn't?
If Edgar hadn't been able to hide as a DH, he would've broken or torn or strained something important halfway through the season. We know that's true, because that's what he did when he was a real player who played in the field in 1993 and 1994. By the end of his career, he was so brittle the Mariners benched him (their best hitter!) during interleague games because they didn't think he could handle the physical rigors of a week at first base. It was pathetic.
Used as a real player, Dunn made a positive contribution to his teams. Used as a real player, Edgar got fitted for a set of crutches.
Or, if he played at a time when there was no DH, they'd have simply stuck him at first, told him not to move too much (Dunn never needed those instructions, that came naturally), and let him rake. That they played in a league where there was a position perfect for a guy with a tremendous bat but a questionable health record worked out well for them. But we don't know what happens in the alternate world where Edgar is forced to endure the tremendous physical hardship of being an immobile first baseman for the back half of his career.
And it's worth noting that the injury that caused him to miss all that time in 1993 and 1994 was suffered while he was playing offense, something he continued to do for the remainder of his career.
Edgar Martinez was so brittle that he would injure himself in the batters box. First base may not require a lot of athleticism but it still isn't comparable to sitting on your couch eating potato chips. He couldn't withstand the rigors of playing a position.
I seriously doubt that first base is significantly more rigorous, if at all* than hitting four times a game and running the bases, which he was able to manage for 10 years after that initial injury. He may well have gotten hurt playing first (probably would have suffered the occasional tweak, given his history). The idea that he would have simply crumbled in a heap if forced to withstand the rigors of first base is ludicrous. We don't know what happens to his career in a world without a DH. But Edgar was moved to DH not because it was the only option. He was moved there because it was the best option.
* Seriously, I'd be interested to see where most injuries occur on the diamond, and how they rank by position. Do most get hurt on offense or defense. Is it possible a second baseman is more likely to get hurt playing defense, while a leftfielder more likely to get hurt on offense? Anyone know?
Injuries in his youth sidetracked his career to the point that he didn't even get going until he was 27. In 1992 he had the bum shoulder, 1993 was a torn hamstring, 1994 he got hit on the wrist opening day and had a bunch of injuries throughout the season, and in 1998 he had a major knee injury, quad strain in 2001, two tendons removed in 2002, and a broken big toe in 2003. Edgar had a bum leg from the get go.
This is a guy so fragile that the Mariners didn't even start him when they played interleague games in the NL. He only started 10 games in NL stadiums over his career.
Funny you should mention that...
Today I was playing in a softball tournament. I had gotten up three times, ran the bases once including getting into and out of a rundown and scoring. In the bottom of the 5th, with 2 outs I blacked out and fell down for some reason. No warning, wasn't hit in the head, just blacked out, was hallucinating/dreaming. Eventually I came to and was trying to get up. By this time I am surrounded by various players, wives who are nurses, and a couple of lesbian EMTs (liberal town.) I guess they call it seizure symptoms, but I did not do other seizure like things and was lucid immediately. It is odd to faint without warning when engaged in physical activity. Went to the E/R, nothing found, fine now. Thing that makes the most sense is there is apparently something called the Vagas nerve that can be triggered if you are leaning forward in a "ready" position, as you might be in the field in softball.
I play 1st base. So perhaps there are unexpected hazards.
Why would they start him at first when they had a DH position to fill in the overwhelming majority of their games?
And, if by revolving door you mean a steady stream of good production out of their first basemen during the time when Edgar was active and interleague play was ongoing, then yes, yes they did. Sorrento had two very good seasons, followed by Segui (one good, one blah, but an excellent glove), then Olerud the rest of the way. None were Edgar's caliber as a hitter, but they also weren't scrubs. I'm sure Lou and others saw the NL games as a chance to give Edgar a rest, or to use his bat in a pinch-hitting capacity. He still did get some starts there (as well as a handful of on-field starts in AL parks during this time frame), so they must have took the chance that he wouldn't spontaneously combust if he had to cross the white line with a glove.
Again, if there's no DH, Edgar is deployed differently (and the Mariners construct their roster differently). Maybe that results in Edgar getting snuffed out in one of those oh-so-common debilitating injuries suffered at first*, maybe it doesn't. None of us knows.
* And yes, I remember the Derreck Lee injury. Ugly, but a rarity.
Why would they move a guy who you believe would be capable of playing the field to DH? How common is that? You don't put players that can play the field at the DH position.
It isn't a single career ending injury that would be the big worry it is the missing of 30 or more games a year because of DL trips that would kill his performance and his candidacy to the Hall.
Edgar Martinez played a grand total of 28 games at first for a total of 224 innings. He was the DH in 1403 games.
In 1996 Edgar started 134 games as a DH. Sorrento started 123 games and third base was a mess all season long. Yet Edgar only started 4 games at first that year and 1 game at third. The Mariners chose to use Brian Hunter as their backup first baseman instead of Edgar. Brian Hunter.
In 1997 Edgar started 144 games as a DH. Sorrento started 119 games at first and Martinez only started 7 games at first that year. With 3 of those starts coming in NL parks and Edgar did not start in the other 5 games in NL parks.
Because someone still has to DH. It's a position that has to be filled by AL teams. And there's no better guy to put there then the one with the tremendous bat but one the team feels is an injury risk.
If there was no DH, do you really think the Mariners would not have stuck Edgar at first and hoped for the best? Of course they would have. They put him at DH because it was the best way to take advantage of his historically great bat while reducing his injury risk as much as possible.
What would have happened if he had to play the field? Who the #### knows. Maybe nothing. Maybe Edgar suffers more little injuries along the way (probably the odds-on choice). Maybe Edgar suffers the big one and is done at 33. The point is, we don't know.
That was the point of all this?
Dunn has 30 career oWAR, and 14 WAR. I find that really hard to believe for someone playing corner OF and 1B.
You're right. I should know better than to think arguing with you is anything but pointless. Because when you're obviously spewing nonsense, as you were here, you just pretend you were arguing something else.
So my opinion that Edgar would not have been able to handle playing the field is nonsense because we just don't know? Thank you for the empty counterpoint.
Will the Yankees win the world series?
Well, I think tha-
Hey, hey, hey. WE. JUST. DON'T. KNOW.
I mean you decided to argue with me about whether or not Edgar could play the field and your point was that we don't know. That's a stupid point.
No, you ########. I disputed Vlad's claim that we knew he'd get hurt if he had to play the field. You decided to dispute that point. It's right there. You can go back and check.
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