Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
It's one bloody game. Jeez Louise, playoff postgame reports suck.
Hunh. Sox win and there's an article about Lester's glove and the one about the umps.
CARDS win and there's an article about the win, Drew sucks, Boston sucks, Beltran is great and the Cards relievers are great.
It's one bloody game.
it ain't my team but whatever his numbers he would be way down the list of pitchers I would have facing a contact oriented team like the cards.
As a Cardinal fan, I would like to see Miller pitch. However, I would much rather have him replace Kelly than Lynn in the rotation. Kelly just feels like a time bomb.
Miller's K/9 and BB/9 both significantly worsened in Septmber.
Agreed with Nate, Breslow has been excellent all year. Sometimes you gotta throw your strength against their strength and hope yours wins.
True. But when your strength looks lost out there, and had just BB'd a .230 hitter, then makes a crazy semi-panic toss into the stands, maybe its time to move onto strength #2: Tazawa. Turning Beltran around was not worth the cost of leaving an ineffective Breslow in the game. He threw all fastballs to Beltran, yet still fell behind 3-1, and then gave up the dagger hit. He sucked, and could not throw strikes. In DMB you do what Farrell did. Breslow was not himself last night. He had no location at all, and with his stuff, he needs to hit the glove. I supported the move to bring Breslow in, but he needed to be gotten outta there for Carlos' AB.
The Red Sox didn't take their chances, and the Cardinals benefited from a complete ########### of a 7th inning and Martinez being pretty friggin good. The series is knotted at 1 apiece, and it's very likely coming back to Fenway one way or the other, I don't see either team winning 3 straight.
A couple of questions: Why are the Cards starting Lance Lynn ahead of Shelby Miller (innings limit, I suspect)? And is Papi going to be playing 1B in the NL park?
Cardinals are notoriously famous for going the maximum.
They are? I've never heard this. Their two World Series before 2011 were 4 and 5 games.
teams don't sit a really good pitcher during the freaking WS because the manager/star doesn't LIKE him personally. or because he dissed someone. or because he gave up the losing him in 1 game back in august. or anything silly like that
87, 85, 82, 68, 67, 64, and 46, all went 7 games, add in that even their playoffs generally go the maximum or one game within the maximum(when they are truly dominant) and I don't think what I said was an overstatement in the slightest.
So of their last 10 world series appearances, 8 went the maximum.
and as Nate pointed out, world series isn't the only post season series.
Breslow had thrown, what, 9 pitches by the time Beltran came up to bat? Who knows what in the hell a pitcher has in 9 pitches?
What predictive value does any of this have?
What was McCarver talking about after the Breslow throwing error, that pitchers lose many games a year on errors throwing to the bases? From what I've seen it's relatively rare.
None, just pointing out that historically the Cardinals like to go deep into the series/post season.
Can you be any more of an ass? Or is it just your normal personality shining through and you don't realize what a ####### dick you are?
I don't know how often it actually results in a lost game, but at least 3 or 4 times a year I see a pitcher throw a DP ball into CF. Maybe once a month I see someone throw wild on a pickoff attempt. Errant throws on bunt attempts are not unusual, either.
Whatever. Let's just drop it.
What wasn't reasonable was allowing Martinez to face Ortiz. Or allowing Descalso to face a LHP in the 7th inning down a run and 0-1 in the series.
Letting Breslow face Beltran was completely reasonable.
You have Robinson PH for Descalso, and then Kozma replaces him in the field. (It would also make much more sense to have another RH bat on the bench -- Peterson? -- than carrying Mujica and never using him.)
(I would also say that if the Cardinals cannot find a 4th OF who's a better hitter with the platoon advantage than Daniel Descalso with a platoon disadvantage, someone has done an inexcusably bad job of roster construction.)
He certainly got a lot better since this game, which has stuck with me a lot longer than it probably should have... most likely due to the the manner and inning in which it ended.
even if bucholz were tip top i would pitch dubront.
it was well known before the playoffs that the cards weaknesses were lefty pitching and the bench.
I wonder how real that weakness is against LHP. This is largely a function of StL RHH having a weird reverse platoon, hitting much worse against LHP (.667) than RHP (.723) -- they actually did worse against lefties than the team's LHH. I wouldn't assume that's terribly predictive of future performance, unless a number of their RHH have reverse splits over their careers. Is that the case?
There is no logical reason for the Cardinals to struggle against left handed pitching, but the reality is that they do.
cfb - Is Matheny giving up on Siegrist too easily? I actually had written down in Siegrist in my scorebook after Martinez retired Pedroia and was surprised when I had to cross it out. Not saying it was the wrong move, just a surprising one.
Just anecdotally it seems to me that pitchers are MUCH worse than other position players at throwing to bases and for some reason lefties are disproportionately bad (Kenny Rogers an exception). I don't know if the evidence shows that but it feels that way.
No, the reality is that they did (in 2013 regular season). That may have little bearing on how they will fare against LHPs going forward.
They aren't getting questioned because they weren't really decisions, they were the only options. Siegrist has already been beaten by Ortiz in this series, and nobody trusts Choate. Martinez is probably one of the five best pitchers on the team. Sticking with him is not a hard choice.
You need to turn around Ortiz in a high leverage spot late in the game. You move him from an A+ hitter to a C+ or B- hitter that way. This is elementary.
But the Cardinals would be switching from an A- pitcher to a C pitcher.
David Ortiz ~ 500 AB, 3 year split (2011, 2012, 2013) vs. LHP: .300/.369./.518. That ain't no C+ hitter. He's worked hard, by all accounts, to develop techniques to cope with the all the loogy guys and shifts they use against him.
Again, Ray, this is not DMB. This is real ball. Not all lefties are created the same. Is he a groundballer? Power pitcher? Finesse?
Managers would be FAR better off managing as if this were DMB. So point heard, and rejected out of hand.
He loses some 200-250 points of OPS just by turning him around.
He has learned to cope with the shifts? He hits into the shift routinely.
Also, he is not a switch hitter. You don't "turn him around". Maybe in DMB you can.
The decision Matheny faced two innings later, though…that one I have a problem with. Carlos Martinez was one the mound holding a 4-2 lead with a runner on first and two men out. Ortiz was coming to the plate. The night before, Matheny had used Kevin Siegrist in a low-leverage spot and watched Ortiz hit a two-run homer that was little more than window dressing. I really want to believe that move didn't affect Matheny's process Thursday, didn't make him less likely to bring in a left-hander to face Ortiz with the game in the balance. Siegrist is a terrific young pitcher, but he has little in common with Randy Choate but handedness. That Ortiz turned around a first-pitch overhand fastball in a low-leverage spot says nothing about how he might handle Choate's get-the-lefty junk from a tough angle.
Martinez has been great this postseason, but he's still a power right-hander who, during the regular season, did not handle lefties: .326/.373/.391 with six strikeouts and three unintentional walks allowed in 51 PA. Choate owes his career to being able to beat the likes of David Ortiz: .176/.268/.224 with no home runs allowed in 2013, .198/.277/.278 with seven homers allowed to lefties in his career. This is what he does. David Ortiz hits lefties well for an everyday player -- .267/.339/.477 career, .260/.315/.418 in 2013, but he doesn't hit for the same amount of power -- he slugged .652 with a homer every 15.6 PA against righties, but .418 with a homer every 30.4 PA against lefties.
The home-run rate with one on and two outs in a two-run game, is the real key; I'd have had no problem with Martinez facing, say, Jacoby Ellsbury in that spot, maybe even Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But the difference in the chance for a game-tying home run between Martinez vs. Ortiz and Choate vs. Ortiz is high enough -- it's almost non-existent in the second matchup -- that not bringing in Choate is a mistake. It "worked" in that Ortiz didn't hit a game-tying home run, and Martinez was able to get Napoli, but it was a needless risk that Matheny would be wise to not replicate. I mean, the Red Sox are here in part because Jim Leyland let David Ortiz bat against a righty as the tying run with two outs. It's not a hard lesson to learn.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
Login to Join (1 members)
Page rendered in 0.5746 seconds, 58 querie(s) executed