To get 3000 hits, Mattingly would have had to average 169 hits over the next five seasons, a number he hadn't achieved since age 31. And barring some sort of power surge, he would have had well under 300 homers, perhaps even under 250.

His "Most Similar" list includes names like Keith Hernandez, (young) Frank Thomas, Will Clark, Wally Joyner, John Olerud, etc. Sounds about right. I thought I'd see Mark Grace on the list, but I guess his early-career power kicked Grace to the curb.

To add to #1, Mattingly's hit total for his last 2 seasons would be 162 and 149 even adjusting for 1994-5 being strike shortened years.

A bigger problem would have been even finding a team willing to play him considering the loss of power. Yankee icon or not, he was forced out of New York because the Yankees felt they needed more power from first base and traded for Tino Martinez (hard to blame them for that).

There were rumors around the time that Mattingly might sign with St Louis. While that might have given him a year and a half of playing time, Don hitting .300 with 12 homers and good defense would not have stopped the Cardinals when the chance to bring in McGwire presented itself.

Mattingly could still have found playing time somewhere as long as he kept the average and glove, but he would have had to become a nomad, bouncing from team to team and practically begging for a chance to play. Kind of like Johnny Damon* 2010-12. And his pursuit of 3000 hits would likely have fizzled out just like Damon's.

*Fitting, since Damon is Nomad spelled backwards.

In the 6 seasons before he hurt his back, Mattingly hit .327/.372/.530 with a 147 OPS+, while also earning 5 (of 9) Gold Gloves. Only 29, he was a likely HoFer until the back went out.

I posted this to Bleacher Report initially and thought it might be of interest. The article I replied to was titled "2013 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot: Don Mattingly, Superstar or Nice Player?"

Here are numbers for several other players who appeared fully or a good bit at 1B and have about the same amount of PAs as Mattingly:

Don Mattingly: 7722 PAs, 127 OPS+, 39.8 WAR
Hal Chase (on banned list): 7939 PAs, 112 OPS+, 19.2 WAR
Norm Cash: 7914 PAs, 139 OPS+, 48.2 WAR
Wally Pipp: 7835 PAs, 104 OPS+, 27.8 WAR
Boog Powell: 7809 PAs, 135 OPS+, 35.0 WAR
Jeff Conine: 7782 PAs, 107 OPS+, 16.2 WAR
Phil Cavarretta: 7701 PAs, 118 OPS+, 31.8 WAR
*Dan Brouthers: 7676 PAs, 170 OPS+, 76.9 WAR
Mark McGwire: 7660 PAs, 163 OPS+, 58.7 WAR
Lance Berkman: 7520 PAs, 146 OPS+, 49.0 WAR

There's only one HoF-er here (Brouthers) and he's the best of these folks by a country mile. Mattingly is clearly a better player than Chase, Pipp, Conine, and Cavarretta, but trails Cash, McGwire, and Berkman in both OPS+ and WAR and Powell in OPS+. McGwire would probably be in the HoF already if it weren't for PED issues, and Chase is rightly on the banned list.

The question here would actually seem to be -- "Why aren't Cash and Powell in the HoF?" Cash is clearly more HoF qualified, and Powell has at the very least as good an argument as Mattingly, better if you value OPS+. And it's very hard to see how one could argue for Mattingly and not even more fervently endorse Berkman for the HoF.

Mattingly is definitely a Hall of the Very Good level player, but not a HoF-er as far as I can see -- and certainly not if Cash and Powell aren't in.

In the 6 seasons before he hurt his back, Mattingly hit .327/.372/.530 with a 147 OPS+, while also earning 5 (of 9) Gold Gloves. Only 29, he was a likely HoFer until the back went out.

FWIW, below are some 1Bs through age 29, centered by WAR on Mattingly. I agree that a healthy Mattingly *would* have gone in, but he wasn't the slam dunk for something like the Hall of Merit that I think people remember him as. At 27 and 28 he wasn't the superduperstar he was at 23-26. It's not clear what a "healthy Mattingly" would have actually been.



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Pujols through 29 had a 172 OPS+ and 71.5 WAR. So by WAR, Pujols and a AAAA scrub in right field would be 7 or 8 wins better than a duo of Mattingly or McCovey and Tony Gwynn or Dave Winfield. IOW, Pujols by himself was (by WAR) as valuable as two HoF-level performers. It's fun to occasionally remind oneself about the astonishing awesomeness of Albert Pujols.

I encourage people to read this interview. It's very reasonable and level-headed. Mattingly has an intelligent take on things.

Good read, thanks for the link.

In the 6 seasons before he hurt his back, Mattingly hit .327/.372/.530 with a 147 OPS+, while also earning 5 (of 9) Gold Gloves. Only 29, he was a likely HoFer until the back went out.

Bill James used to have a fun note in the abstracts - "Can I try this career over?" - and then name a player. In this past era I'd name, e.g., Jeremy Giambi.

One twist on that would be - "Can I try the second half of my career over?" That would be guys like Mattingly and Strawberry. Oh, and Griffey. Definitely Griffey. (Not guys like Rice or Murphy, as I feel they petered out naturally.)

Can people think of others in either category?

In the 6 seasons before he hurt his back, Mattingly hit .327/.372/.530 with a 147 OPS+, while also earning 5 (of 9) Gold Gloves. Only 29, he was a likely HoFer until the back went out.

Yup, Hall of Fame talent derailed by injury. Clearly not a HoF career.

Mattingly was a phenomenal defensive first baseman when healthy. Boog not so much and don't recall Cash's defense either way.

So that boosts Mattingly's HOVG case, I suppose.

I encourage people to read this interview. It's very reasonable and level-headed. Mattingly has an intelligent take on things.

Agree. A very refreshing departure from "man when I played I was great and everyone was great, and everyone that came up afterwards didn't respect the game and probably cheated." He comes off as very humble and grateful he got to even play in the big leagues, while respecting other greats in the game. Mattingly was always a really easy guy to root for, even as a Yankee.

At 27 and 28 he wasn't the superduperstar he was at 23-26. It's not clear what a "healthy Mattingly" would have actually been.

Although he wouldn't miss a big chunk of time until age 29, Mattingly's back trouble started during his age 27 season.

Mattingly definitely has the best, most level headed view I've seen of a players career by that player. He was an excellent player at one point and had he found a way to keep playing long enough he might have got in but made a choice that was best for him and he accepted that it removed any shot from the HOF. In truth, it would probably be good for him to fall off the ballot so he wouldn't get asked this stuff all the time (or at least less often). A bit surprised more of the anti-PED crowd hasn't latched onto Mattingly ala the anti-stathead latching onto Jim Rice a few years ago.

"Can I try the second half of my career over?"

Bret Saberhagen
Dwight Gooden
Will Clark
Dale Murphy
Albert Belle
Dick Allen
Pedro Guerrero
Kal Daniels
Danny Tartabull
Roy Oswalt
Dave Steib

Could he have played for much longer? His last 6 years produced a 105 OPS+. His last year wasn't good on either side of the ball, and, perhaps more ominous looking, his last three years produced a rising walk rate. A rising walk rate can signal the end for an old hitter. The knowledge that you can't hit certain types of pitches/locations anymore and can't catch up to them, so you lay off of them.

Interestingly, Mattingly saw time in each of the three OF positions, plus at 2B and 3B (just a game or three there). A lefty thrower at 2B or 3B must have been a hoot.

One of my favorite players growing up, and now, even though I'm a Red Sox fan. He had a peak that fits very, very nicely into a HOF career - even though he didn't walk much - but he just burned out too soon. Simply not deserving of the Hall, unfortunately.

Black Ink Batting - 23 (86), Average HOFer ? 27
Gray Ink Batting - 111 (189), Average HOFer ? 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 134 (102), Likely HOFer ? 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 34 (231), Average HOFer ? 50

Similar Batters
1.Cecil Cooper (933)
2.Wally Joyner (907)
3.Hal McRae (895)
4.Kirby Puckett (891) *
5.Will Clark (879)
6.Magglio Ordonez (877)
7.Jeff Conine (875)
8.Tony Oliva (867)
9.Raul Ibanez (863)
10.Keith Hernandez (861)

Bret Saberhagen
Dwight Gooden
Will Clark
Dale Murphy
Albert Belle
Dick Allen
Pedro Guerrero
Kal Daniels
Danny Tartabull
Roy Oswalt
Dave Steib

Some good ones here, thanks. I like Saberhagen, Gooden, and Daniels the best.

A lefty thrower at 2B or 3B must have been a hoot.

Don't know what the 3B game was, but he played 2B in the 9th inning of the George Brett pine tar game after it was replayed once AL President Lee McPhail upheld the Royals protest. Billy Martin protested the replaying of the 9th inning by playing guys out of position including Mattingly at 2B and Ron Guidry in centerfield.

From SABR:

A conspicuous side note from the 1986 season was the Yankees' trip to Seattle in August of that year. Third baseman Mike Pagliarulo was injured before the game on August 30, and the Yankees needed an emergency fill-in. Mattingly volunteered, and manager Lou Piniella gave him the go-ahead, making him the first left-handed-throwing third baseman to play in the majors since Wee Willie Keeler in the early 1900s. On the first play of the game, leadoff batter Jose Moses hit a grounder to third base, which Mattingly fielded cleanly before making a wide throw to first base that allowed Moses to reach on an error. But he quickly redeemed himself on the next play when he stabbed a sharp grounder from Mickey Brantley and started a 6-4-3 double play. In all, Mattingly played three games at third base, had one putout, 11 assists and one error and was involved in two double plays.

Interestingly, Mattingly saw time in each of the three OF positions, plus at 2B and 3B (just a game or three there). A lefty thrower at 2B or 3B must have been a hoot.

The time at 3B was filling in for an injured Mike Pagliarulo. He acquitted himself well enough there. The 1/3 of an inning at 2B was the conclusion of the pine tar game.

*Fitting, since Damon is Nomad spelled backwards.

Successfully resisted urge to post a Star Trek joke.

"Can I try the second half of my career over?"

Ray Chapman
Jason Kendall
J.R. Richard
Al Rosen
Cecil Travis
Hal Trosky

Yes, more good ones, Vlad. (Chapman. Lol.)

I think James once classified Chapman's career as ending via injury and said "Well, death is an injury - an extreme injury, but an injury nonetheless."

Mattingly was a class presence in the clubhouse for the media as well. A lot of guys who are "good with the media" are egotistical types who like to hear themselves talk anyway.

Mattingly was not that way, but from what I saw he was a real professional in that regard....

"Can I try the second half of my career over?"

Chuck Knobloach. Sixth most rWAR among 2B through age 28 (36.3), tenth most through age 30 (42.2), and 25th for his career (42.0).

WOW. In 1894 Dan Brouthers had 615 plate appearances and struck out 9 times.

Koblauch is a good one. Andruw Jones, too.

Even Hershiser.

WOW. In 1894 Dan Brouthers had 615 plate appearances and struck out 9 times.

Less amazing when the league SO/9 was 2.2--just ask Jack Doyle.

Mattingly volunteered, and manager Lou Piniella gave him the go-ahead, making him the first left-handed-throwing third baseman to play in the majors since Wee Willie Keeler in the early 1900s.

Except he wasn't. Mike Squires played third for one inning in 1983 and manned the hot corner for 13 games in 1984, starting four of them. He also caught two games.

First 8 years of Appier's career: 140 ERA+, 1650 innings

From 30-36: 930 innings, 100 ERA+

So is Squires the last LH catcher in MLB? And who was the last one before him?

Concur with the encouragements to RTFI.

I was pretty good for a short period

Not only is he intelligent and level-headed, he's also modest.

So is Squires the last LH catcher in MLB? And who was the last one before him?

The last one that I know of was Benny Distefano for the the Pirates in 1989.

Except he wasn't. Mike Squires played third for one inning in 1983 and manned the hot corner for 13 games in 1984, starting four of them. He also caught two games.

Terry Francona played 4 innings at third in 1985 and Mario Valdez one inning in 1997... neither started though.

There's only one HoF-er here (Brouthers) and he's the best of these folks by a country mile. Mattingly is clearly a better player than Chase, Pipp, Conine, and Cavarretta, but trails Cash, McGwire, and Berkman in both OPS+ and WAR and Powell in OPS+. McGwire would probably be in the HoF already if it weren't for PED issues, and Chase is rightly on the banned list.

Chase is not on the banned list.

EDIT: For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, Throws LH, Played 1 games at C, sorted by most recent date

                                            
Rk             Player Year Age  Tm Lg    Pos
1     Benny Distefano 1989  27 PIT NL  *3/29
2        Mike Squires 1980  28 CHW AL   *3/2
3           Tom Chism 1979  25 BAL AL  /*362
4         Chris Short 1961  23 PHI NL   *1/2
5           Dale Long 1958  32 CHC NL   *3/2
6    Homer Hillebrand 1905  25 PIT NL 31/927
7       Jiggs Donahue 1902  22 SLB AL   *2/3
8            Joe Wall 1902  28 TOT NL    /29
9       Jiggs Donahue 1901  21 TOT ML  *23/7
10        Fred Tenney 1901  29 BSN NL   *3/2
11           Joe Wall 1901  27 NYG NL   /*29

EDIT: For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, Throws LH, Played 1 games at 2B, sorted by most recent date

                                           
Rk             Player Year Age  Tm      Pos
1       Don Mattingly 1983  22 NYY    397/4
2     Gonzalo Marquez 1973  27 TOT    3/4D9
3        Sam McDowell 1970  27 CLE    *1/43
4        George Crowe 1958  37 CIN     *3/4
5       Lefty Stewart 1933  32 WSH     *1/4
6       Jim Bottomley 1924  24 STL     *3/4
7           Edd Roush 1920  27 CIN    *83/4
8       George Sisler 1917  24 SLB     *3/4
9           Hal Chase 1916  33 CIN    *3487
10          Joe Agler 1915  28 TOT  *39/784
11          Hal Chase 1913  30 TOT    *3/84
12          Hal Chase 1912  29 NYY     *3/4
13          Hal Chase 1911  28 NYY    *3/84
14      Pep Deininger 1909  31 PHI   *8/947
15          Hal Chase 1908  25 NYY  *3/4715
16          Doc White 1907  28 CHW    *1/94
17          Hal Chase 1906  23 NYY     *3/4
18         Cozy Dolan 1906  33 BSN  *9/4173
19          Hal Chase 1905  22 NYY    *3/64
20      Jack Dunleavy 1905  25 STL    *97/4
21      Willie Keeler 1905  33 NYY   *94/75
22        Doc Gessler 1904  23 BRO  *87/943
23   Charlie Hemphill 1904  28 SLB   *98/74
24   Charlie Hemphill 1902  26 TOT   *987/4
25       Snake Wiltse 1902  30 TOT *13/9847
Rk             Player Year Age  Tm      Pos
26        Lefty Davis 1901  26 TOT   *97/84
27       Buck Freeman 1901  29 BOS    *3/49
28      Willie Keeler 1901  29 BRO    *95/4

For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, Throws LH, Played 1 games at SS, sorted by most recent date

                                
Rk           Player Year Age  Tm
1         Mark Ryal 1987  26 CAL
2         Tom Chism 1979  25 BAL
3    Royle Stillman 1975  24 BAL
4     Nino Escalera 1954  24 CIN
5        Lou Gehrig 1934  31 NYY
6         Hal Chase 1909  26 NYY
7         Hal Chase 1905  22 NYY
8       Lefty Davis 1903  28 NYY
9     Jesse Burkett 1902  33 SLB
10      Mike Donlin 1902  24 CIN
11        Russ Hall 1901  29 CLE

For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, Throws LH, Played 1 games at 3B, sorted by most recent date

                                   
Rk           Player Year Age  Tm Lg
1      Mario Valdez 1997  22 CHW AL
2     Don Mattingly 1986  25 NYY AL
3    Terry Francona 1985  26 MON NL
4      Mike Squires 1984  32 CHW AL
5      Mike Squires 1983  31 CHW AL
6     Charlie Grimm 1918  19 STL NL
7     George Sisler 1916  23 SLB AL
8       Milo Netzel 1909  23 CLE AL
9         Hal Chase 1908  25 NYY AL
10     Buck Freeman 1906  34 BOS AL
11     Buck Freeman 1905  33 BOS AL
12    Willie Keeler 1905  33 NYY AL
13    Willie Keeler 1903  31 NYY AL
14    Jesse Burkett 1902  33 SLB AL
15       Cy Seymour 1902  29 TOT ML
16    Willie Keeler 1901  29 BRO NL

A lefty thrower at 2B or 3B must have been a hoot.

I tried it with one of my Little League teams once - had a good fielder who happened to be a lefty. Sure enough, he made several good plays on balls down the line that a righty (at that level) would probably have whiffed altogether.

I think James once classified Chapman's career as ending via injury and said "Well, death is an injury - an extreme injury, but an injury nonetheless."

Suddenly, in my mind, Bill James sounds just like David St. Hubbins.

Ray Chapman
Jason Kendall
J.R. Richard
Al Rosen
Cecil Travis
Hal Trosky

The A's can provide two in Mark Mulder and Barry Zito (though Zito in the second half of this year certainly redeemed himself). Hopefully Tim Lincecum isn't joining that list. Frank Tanana, though he went on to have a very long career, but he was lights out his first few years before he got injured.

"Can I try this career over?"

Cesar Cedeno.

To lesser extents, Mantle and Bench.

Mark Prior. Although that's more like 75% than half...

Jim Fregosi, 43.3 WAR through age 29. 2.2 from 30-36.

1916-2012, Pitcher and catcher in the same game:

Jeff Mathis, 7/25/12 -- 1 IP, 2 runs
Rob Johnson, 5/18/12 -- 1 IP, 0 runs, 1 K
Jamie Burke, 6/7/08 -- 1 IP (15th), 1 R, loss
Wiki Gonzalez, 5/15/03 -- 1 IP, 0 runs, 1 BB
Shane Halter, 10/1/00 -- 1 BF, 0 runs, 1 BB
Scott Sheldon, 9/6/00 -- 1 BF, 0 runs, 1 K
Rick Dempsey, 7/2/91 -- 1 IP, 1 run
Rick Cerone, 8/9/87 -- 1 IP, 0 runs, 1 BB
Rick Cerone, 7/19/87 -- 1 IP, 0 runs, 1 K
Jeff Newman, 9/14/77 -- 1 IP, 0 runs
Cesar Tovar, 9/22/68 -- starting pitcher! 1 IP, 0 runs, 1 BB, 1 K
Bert Campaneris, 9/8/65 -- 1 IP, 1 run, 2 BB
Dee Moore, 9/27/36 -- starting picher, 2 IP, 0 runs, 1 BB, 1 K

Who woulda thought the catcher-pitcher double would be a 21st century thing?

Halter, Sheldon, Campy and Tovar were gimmicks where the guy played all 9 positions. And while I could understand Tovar, Campy and Halter being given chances to do this silliness, I couldn't understand why Scott Sheldon would be allowed to do this. Which is when I discovered something pretty amazing -- he didn't even start that game. He came on in the bottom of the 4th.

A couple of years ago, being a lefty, and bored for a minute or two, I tried to think through what would be the cost and reward of playing a lefty at the "righty" positions. Here's what I came up with:

2B - the double play pivot is a real problem, similar to what happens to righty shortstops, but even worse in terms of how you have to twist your body to make the throw. I don't think it's a surprise that the lefties listed a playing 2B are mostly older guys, from times when the DP wasn't as important to the game.

SS - you actually gain an ADVANTAGE on the DP pivot, but you pay for it having to twist your body on balls hit into the hole. You will probably CATCH more balls in the hole, because your glove is on the right side, but then you have to stop your momentum and switch hands and twist your body, making your throw from there even slower than Jeter's.

3B - similar to, but easier than SS. You still have to twist to throw on balls hit to your right, but the ball gets to your glove sooner, so there's a better chance that you'll throw the runner out. Bunts are a problem because you have to twist after you have already spent time charging. You lose the DP pivot advantage because you don't make DP pivots. A lefty 3B would probably play well off the line, so he can get to more balls on the SS side. If he does play close to the line, he loses a lot of his advantage getting to balls on his right, because they will be foul balls.

C - you get an advantage on the snap throw to first base, balanced by righty hitters' bodies being in the way when you need to throw to third, maybe even second. A lefty catcher is probably viable. The others probably aren't.

Walt's list above is almost entirely composed of position players being sent out to pitch, probably in long extra-inning games, or for stunts. But bobm's list in #36 has Chris Short playing catcher. Say what? Short was a lefty pitcher. What the hell was he doing behind the plate? - Brock Hanke

Chris Short's stint at catcher was a clerical appearance only. Gene Mauch and Alvin Dark were playing mind games before a doubleheader, trying to keep the other one from knowing which pitcher would start which game, and so forth. Mauch sent out a deceptive lineup, and then pulled multiple players after Dark declared his pitcher.

According to the 1961 rules, Short & Co. were listed as being in the game, which wouldn't be acknowledged today. (Example: Hideki Matsui breaking his wrist in a game that, following his removal, didn't count as an appearance for him.)

Here's the box score.

SS - you actually gain an ADVANTAGE on the DP pivot

When the shortstop is the middle man on the DP, it's usually a 463, and while I can see a mild advantage of sorts to a LH shortstop, there's no great disadvantage to the RH either; he's not really "pivoting" on the play. 563 double plays are uncommon anyway, and the LH is not at an advantage there; he's either got to turn all the way around, or sort of pivot twice.

I couldn't remember the longtime Orioles BP catcher who threw lefty, and while aimlessly Googling found that one of the top results was a time I'd mentioned him in another BBTF thread. His name is Sam Snider. An interesting case, because as you say, Brock, there's no real logical or functional reason for all catchers to throw RH; it's more an unchallenged convention.

Orlando Cepeda
Vada Pinson
Pete Reiser
Chuck Klein
Joe Medwick

Don Mattingly:

1982-1995 1785G .307-222-1099-1007r .307/.358/.471 127OPS+ 9GG 1985 MVP

Kirby Puckett:

1984-1995 1783G .318-207-1085-1071r .318/.360/.477 124OPS+ 6GG WS1987, 1991


Puckett's a 1st ballot HOF'er and Mattingly is on the outside looking in?

If Mattingly played for any team other than the Yankees, he would have been voted in long ago.