No, he's saying spots 1, 2, 3 and 4 averaged 475 PA against Mo, while spots 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 averaged 550 against him.

yeah, that was a hard one to phrase correctly. #50 is showing slightly different numbers ... maybe it's the pre-7th innings ones.

Note I assume it's just part of the standard distribution of 9th inning PAs that guys in the 5-9 spots are more likely to come up. Clearly Rivera pitches pretty any any 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead regardless of who's due up. As to usage beyond 1 inning in the regular season, that only happens under fairly desperate circumstances and there's a good chance the reason the situation is dire is because the 2/3/4 hitters have just gotten on base.

That's probably my #1 gripe about the closer model. I suspect 1-inning relievers are here to stay, it's certainly quite effective. But if Trout/whoever/Pujols/Hamilton are due up in the 8th and I've got a 1-run lead, I want my best reliever in there even if it means he's not available to pitch the 9th.

Note I assume it's just part of the standard distribution of 9th inning PAs that guys in the 5-9 spots are more likely to come up.

All of MLB: 15511 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2012, during 9th Inning

OrderPos    PA
     6th  1884
     7th  1857
     5th  1811
     8th  1790
     9th  1692
     4th  1689
     3rd  1607
     1st  1603
     2nd  1578

All of MLB: 5052 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2012, during 9th Inning and up 1 runs, up 2 runs or up 3 runs

OrderPos    PA
     7th   644
     6th   634
     8th   588
     5th   585
     9th   542
     4th   530
     1st   527
     2nd   511
     3rd   491

2012 Sv Rk            Player SV  2012 PA 1st-4th 5th-9th
         1       Jim Johnson 51      269     37%     63%
         2   Fernando Rodney 48      282     37%     63%
         3       Jason Motte 42      279     40%     60%
         4    Rafael Soriano 42      279     42%     58%
         5     Craig Kimbrel 42      231     45%     55%
         6       Chris Perez 39      242     45%     55%
         7 Jonathan Papelbon 38      284     35%     65%
         8   Aroldis Chapman 38      276     45%     55%
         9        Joe Nathan 37      257     42%     58%
        10     Joel Hanrahan 36      254     41%     59%

But if Trout/whoever/Pujols/Hamilton are due up in the 8th and I've got a 1-run lead, I want my best reliever in there even if it means he's not available to pitch the 9th.

All of MLB: 20550 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2012, during 8th Inning

OrderPos   PA
     3rd 2464
     2nd 2441
     4th 2388
     1st 2350
     5th 2285
     9th 2189
     6th 2174
     7th 2147
     8th 2112

All of MLB: 5460 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2012, during 8th Inning and up 3 runs, up 2 runs or up 1 runs

OrderPos  PA
     3rd 743
     2nd 726
     4th 668
     1st 666
     9th 587
     5th 570
     8th 511
     6th 496
     7th 493

I was really confused until I realized those lists were sorted by PA not batting order position!

Rivera career is about 40% which looks pretty average.

Since bobm clearly has nothing better to do, I'd guess that distribution was a bit different in the sillyball era when we were seeing more PA/game. But I suppose even a 30 point difference in OBP amounts to 1 extra PA per game on average so that probably only moves everybody around a max of one slot.

Regardless of the arguments one can spin in favor of Rivera or in favor of Gossage (both of which are not without their merit, though I suppose I fall on the side of "if a guy can pitch three innings it is better than a guy pitching one inning, assuming no loss of effectiveness"), only one of them is talking about how the style of baseball they were involved with due to an accident of his birth is inherently superior to the style of baseball the other was involved with due to an accident of his birth. Thus only one of those players is a windbag. And what's worse--one who has shown himself to be a windbag on this topic and a number of other topics (most of which have to do with how being born when he was born makes him somehow holier and more virtuous than those born later).

And regardless of how many reporters are begging him to be a windbag, it still takes a windbag to take those reporters up on their "hey windbag, please be a windbag" offer.

Since bobm clearly has nothing better to do, I'd guess that distribution was a bit different in the sillyball era when we were seeing more PA/game.

All of MLB: 15634 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2002, during 9th Inning

OrderPos   PA
     7th 1782
     8th 1776
     9th 1759
     4th 1741
     6th 1738
     5th 1734
     2nd 1720
     3rd 1706
     1st 1678

All of MLB: 5102 Plate Appearances Allowed in 2002, during 9th Inning and up 3 runs, up 2 runs or up 1 runs

OrderPos  PA
     7th 603
     8th 595
     9th 582
     6th 576
     5th 561
     4th 558
     1st 545
     3rd 541
     2nd 541

bobm

i appreciate the various outputs you generate in different threads.

thanks

All of MLB: 11963 Plate Appearances Allowed in 1972, during 9th Inning

OrderPos   PA
     7th 1466
     6th 1439
     5th 1393
     8th 1391
     4th 1309
     9th 1290
     3rd 1263
     1st 1225
     2nd 1187

All of MLB: 4237 Plate Appearances Allowed in 1972, during 9th Inning and up 3 runs, up 2 runs or up 1 runs

OrderPos  PA
     5th 522
     7th 518
     6th 515
     8th 475
     4th 474
     3rd 454
     9th 453
     1st 419
     2nd 407

[59] - You're welcome, Harveys.

I was inspired in this thread by Walt Davis's insight about the almost inherent nature of the sub-optimal use of the closer in the 9th inning:

Note I assume it's just part of the standard distribution of 9th inning PAs that guys in the 5-9 spots are more likely to come up. ... That's probably my #1 gripe about the closer model.

THAT IS WHEN MEN WERE MEN, GOOSE GOSSAGE.

"You, sir, are no Firpo Marberry!"